The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    The Debate: attacking Romney's jobs-creator mythology.

    Obama lost the first debate on style---low energy, low engagement, and not parrying Romney's staccato speech and rote memorization of soliloquy and facts. I think Obama's deficiencies in style are the easiest things to correct in tomorrow's debate. What seems more important are the structure and forethought in specific attacks on Romney and how not to have internally competing strategies.

    There is always the possibility that Romney would shape-shift again and perhaps introduce something completely from left field---how about, for example, a program to refinance student loans, or a new kind of health care guarantee? Or attempt to shift the debate to the Benghazi tragedy. I hope that the Obama team has already gamed some of these possible outliers. But my guess is that Romney will double down on his attacks on Obama's record, try to exploit his newfound Daddy-will take-care-of-business role, and further muddle the arguments on tax reform, Medicare and "Obamacare."

    I view the Biden debate as kind of a tag team effort, especially with respect to the abortion issue---which I regard as one of the three essential attack lines. Ryan's statements on abortion put on display the stark realities, maybe for the first time, of restricting abortions to "exceptions" of rape, incest and health of the mother. The burden of proof would be shifted inexorably to the woman seeking an abortion---guilty until proved innocent---how does that square with our constitution?  

    And what doctor is going to perform a procedure for which he might be criminally liable---an intimidation of the medical profession which is exactly the purpose of the "exception" language.

    I suggest that the second line of attack on Romney's should be his campaign strategy of withholding information---for example, 1) on Romney's personal income taxes, 2) exactly what deductions would be part of his tax plan, 3) exactly how do you pay for the elimination of preexisting conditions. This attack line gets at Romney's hypocrisy and flip flopping without actually saying so. Any frontal attack on hypocrisy, flip flopping and lack of Presidential caliber should, imo, come at the next debate, the foreign policy debate, not this one. The problem with using the flip flop attack in tomorrow's debate is that it conflicts with the new powerful and essential argument on abortion---that you better believe what Romney is saying to you---he means what he says, women!

    The third line of attack in my scenario is Romney's claim that he is a job creator and the attendant claims that a top down strategy of cutting taxes and eliminating regulations will create jobs. I'm surprised that there has not already been a frontal attack on Romney's job creation claim earlier in the primary campaign that he created 100 K jobs. David Stockman has provided perhaps the first succinct analysis of Romney's record at Bain in a pre-published chapter of his new book ---Deformation--(accessible at the Daily Beast). For example, when Bain sold Staples, it had 1100 employees. Today, Staples has 90 K employees, 40 K of which are part time. Romney's claim that he created 100 K jobs is weak and is only supported by the Staples example which in itself is disingenuous. When Romney responds to the 100 K jobs attack, especially if he refers to the Staples example, the stage would be set for a succession of Bain attacks, many of which are so well facilitated by Stockman's research. (Many here would agree with Stockman's tie-in to exuberant Fed policies.)

    A suggestion for Obama's opening attack:

    "We are in an economic recovery. The question is how to make it better, not kill it with failed policies of the past.  Governor Romney would have us elect him without any facts being provided. He is attempting to sell you a used car with no information on the lights, brakes and air conditioning. He has given no facts on which deductions he would eliminate in order to pay for his tax cuts, No facts on how he would pay for the elimination of preexisting conditions, and breathtakingly incomplete facts about his own tax returns.In a presidential election a man's tax returns tell us much about his personal behavior that we otherwise wouldn't know.  To make his election argument even more incomplete, the Governor has a weak job performance record as Governor of Massachusetts. And to top it all off---my opponent has made the fantastical claim that he created 100 K private sector jobs---a claim which he has never substantiated." 

    Comments

    On the jobs issue what would be your take on the advisability of attacking primarily with the argument that under Bush we had zero net job growth with the same trickle down approach Romney embraces, and that those policies, along with letting Wall Street run wild, are major parts of the problem we'd be foolish to return to?

    My elevator pitch at this point is, roughly: if you want to re-explode the deficit, go back to no net job growth like we had under Bush following the approach Romney wants, and go back to letting Wall Street run wild so we can re-crash the economy sooner, vote for Romney.  

    The Republicans have repeated, falsely, so many times that too much government spending and high deficits go along with and help contribute to a bad jobs situation that, unfortunately, a lot of the US public appears to have swallowed this argument.  At the time of the 2010 midterms, Democratic pollster Geoff Garin found, and presented to Democratic Senators at a post-midterms powwow, data showing that voters a) saw jobs as the most pressing priority and b) say what the president and Congress should do to boost job creation is reduce the deficit and the debt.  

    US voters clueless on economics?   No...ce n'est pas possible!


    Hey, Dreamer. I think all those points are important. I see this as a land war---decide where to attack first and what the end objectives are. Romney has to be kept on the defensive, which is why I like a structure to which the debater can always come back home to in an off moment, and relate everything else to when given the opening. But to some extent you have to refer to the failure of Republican top-down policies.

    We're talking no abortion--unless the woman can successfully, and with no rape kit yet, argue her case with a doctor and a sheriff.

    We're being asked to elect a man who hides all the facts. At least with Obama/Biden, we know what the facts are and have a reasonable case for continuance and improvement.

    Governor Romney has no proof that he created private sector jobs.

    At the end of the debate I want my troops occupying those three hills.

    One thing that makes the Bush years narrative weak ,in my opinion, is that it might still sound whiny and provides an opportunity for Romney to wax and wane about whether his strategy has ever been tried before, and so on, as Ryan tried to do.

    How about this? "Governor Romney's whiny refusal to release more tax returns does a disservice to voters."


    One thing that makes the Bush years narrative weak ,in my opinion, is that it might still sound whiny and provides an opportunity for Romney to wax and wane about whether his strategy has ever been tried before, and so on, as Ryan tried to do.

    Perhaps so.  But if R were to try to do that, Obama could just wait until he's said his thing and then come back with something like "You know, Governor, I'm hearing a lot of words, a lot of promises.  It's just that when you come right down to it, cut through the smokescreen and the bull, all you're offering is more of the same that got us into the mess we're in.  I'm working to change that by rebuilding the middle class, create jobs and reduce the deficit--we're not there yet but we're moving in the right direction--and you're offering more of the same trickle down that's been tried and doesn't work and in fact hurts the middle class, doesn't generate jobs and just blows up the federal deficit.  We need to keep moving forward, Governor, not backwards."  So Bush gets brought in not in a way that suggests he's being used as the excuse, but to remind watchers that we've been down that road before and it hurts us.

    Of course I'm talking about the policy content here, as are you.  And it's probably rare to get traction on a content point alone except, perhaps, where the opponent gives a particularly bad or obviously unpersuasive response (unlikely).  I'm hoping for ways Obama can, as you note, get and keep Romney on the defensive and reinforce the doubts many already have about him, instead of just letting him make shit up and allow himself to look like a chance maybe worth taking to improve things. 

    The best lines of attack will feed into and build a narrative that already has credibility and is consistent with the known views and concerns of the target voters.  And the delivery--the confidence-projecting optics--needs to reinforce that narrative as well, that "I know what I'm doing and you don't, you're a pretender, a huckster who's peddling a line of failed bull that will hurt the middle class and not get us the job growth and deficit reduction we need and will get if we continue to move forward." 

    All of this just thinking out loud with you, of course...and I like what you are writing as well.  In particular, any content points are more effective if they can be made on a less abstract, policy wonky level--such as by using Romney's specific Bain claims as example 1 of why voters should not accept what Romney is saying, the facts and record just don't bear him out. 

      


    I agree with you very much on the point of using concrete examples from Bain, etc., as opposed to abstract policy arguments. Romney is just filling air space with wild charges and wild promises and that's hard to break through. I just heard Portman on the subject of Bain's China activities and he's using the "blind trust" and the "Romney left Bain in 1999" arguments. So the Bain attacks have to be crafted properly. I believe that the outsourcing began early. I'm not sure whether its worth Obama trying to parse the span of Romney's Bain tenure, seems like that would be wasting valuable time and give Romney an opportunity to ramble.  


    This thing is a townhall, right?

    "Governor Romney, 

    The American people deserve to know how high-income individuals such as yourself plan to increase your contribution to government revenue without raising taxes. You have discussed closing loopholes used by the very wealthy but have not offered specifics. Could you now clarify by naming three or four specific loopholes that you've used in the past but would now close? Also please say specifically how much additional revenue would come to the federal government via closure of the loopholes, by describing how much you did NOT pay by using the loopholes in, say 2009 and how much you WOULD pay by NOT using the loopholes in, say 2014?

    Thank you."

     


    Thanks, Erica. I like the "loophole" question and think Obama might do well to bring up the loop hole question frequently. "Governor Romney has not told us about what he would do in the case of X. Neither has he told us what loop hole reductions he is hiding or what is so secret about his tax returns that he is afraid to release them." you think Candy will step up to the plate and confront either one with a follow up question like that? I'm not expecting her to do a very good job, seems her reputation at CNN would be better served trying to nail Obama than Romney.

    The town hall format---I'm not sure it favors Obama as some are saying. It requires being respectful to the questioner but then working in the attacks as part of, or the end of, the answer. That why it's necessary to get the attack lines in as early as possible, so Romney is defending. 

    If Romney just keeps reiterating the $716 B Medicare cut thing, seems it has to be answered in kind---making Obama seem repetitive. Obama should make some reference to how many times Romney has brought it up---must be that not many people believe it. "Romney has again distorted the specific purpose of my Medicare reform. It's a habit with him. It's the same as how he has distorted subject Y, the same as he has done with Z."


    The question of whether Candy should try to nail Romney or Obama sent me off on a bit of a "Mary Ann or Ginger" tangent there. Given the difference in their age, would Romney be allowed a little pharmaceutical...um...help?

    Sometimes I swear I'm just Jolly with better manners.

     


    In all seriousness, yes, I agree the loophole question is critical because people need to know that he is the guy exploiting the loopholes and so he's talking about putting the brakes on himself and his buddies!


    Romney as the exploiter in chief. Romney as the guy who doesn't take responsibility.


    Loopholer in chief.


    Baby needs a new pair of shoes. Who you gonna call? Romneybuster.


    WASHINGTON (The Borowitz Report)—With his polite and well-mannered performance widely panned in the first Presidential debate, President Barack Obama is under mounting pressure to prove that he can act like an asshole in the second debate tomorrow night, a campaign aide confirmed.

    “In America, we demand that our President remain cool and calm in a crisis but go batshit in a debate,” the aide said. “Tuesday night is all about that second piece.”

    Rather than unspooling a laundry list of facts and numbers as he did in the first debate, this time Mr. Obama will focus on tearing Mr. Romney a new one.

    Unfortunately, the aide acknowledged, such classic dick moves as dismissively interrupting an opponent and laughing over his answers do not come naturally to Mr. Obama: “That’s why we’re having Joe Biden work with him.”

    But even as Mr. Obama worked around the clock to practice being a douche, Mitt Romney’s campaign manager, Matt Rhoades, doubted his efforts would succeed.

    “Being an asshole isn’t a skill that you can just pick up overnight,” Mr. Rhoades said. “Mitt Romney’s been working on it all his life.”



    Read more http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2012/10/obamas-new-debate-strategy.html#ixzz29OgFCFWU

    The Borowitz Report, today.


    That's choice. Thanks.

    I hope Romney brings up the Ryan debate. I would probably make a joke out of CNN's early and wrong call on the winner, putting Candy on notice.  I'm not sure there is much percentage in Obama bringing up Joe's performance---except that to my mind it is essential to refer to that debate in regard to Ryan's abortion stance. If Obama doesn't get an abortion question before half way through, he'll have to find a way to bring it up.


    John Nichols of The Nation today offers another way to think about confronting Bain Capitalism, "It's Time to Debate Bain Capitalism", at:

    http://www.thenation.com/blog/170593/its-time-debate-bain-capitalism?rel=emailNation