The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Failed attempt

    By Flavius on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 2:18pm |



     

    The top line is what 538 reported sunday. Where there  is a second line that is what 538 reported today.

    All  data is for the Senate unless marked   HO

     

                 Pollster      Number                                                                                                                        ................................polled 

                                                                                                                 

    Mo         Harris               600              McCaskill 45            Hawley 40                                               ……                 Trafalcar          1791                              44                         48

    Ind         Harris               600                Donnelly 44              Braun 42

    FL                "                  "                   Nelson    46             Scott    48

    Ariz              "                  "                      Sinema 44            McSally 49

    Mont            "                  500                    Tester 50           Rosedale 42                                   ...                               Change             879                               46                          49                                                 ............... Research

      

    Tenn           Targoz         480                  Bredesen 49          Blackburn  49

    Ariz             Trafalcar    2166                  Sinema    50            McSally    47  ........                                .........     OH Predictive   631                                  48                             49

    NM            Research&Polling                 Heinrich    51          Rich           31

    NM HO               "                                    Halland      50        Arnold Jones  38

    NM  HO              "                                    Small         45          Herrell          46

    CA HO       Pobolsky            900               Newsom    47            Cox            37

    CA              Pobolsky            900              Feinstein  41            De Leon       35

    NY              Siena                    641             Gillibrand  58             Farley        35     

    PA               Res &poll             450             Casey        58             Barletta       39                                .....                       Res & poll           1833                               51                                44

    Mn                    "                     450               Smith       49                 Housely 39

                     .SurveyUSA           600                               48                                40

    MN           "                              450                Klobuchar 53             Newberger 33                                                      "                              600                                 57                                34

    Mich         "                              450                Stabenow 52                     James 36

    Mich HO     Target  etc            800                          "       53                               43

    WI     HO     JMC Analytics       500                    Kohl       33              Grothman 60

    OH    HO      Optimus                 800                Harbaugh    36               Gibbs     55

    AZ           "                                  750              O'Halleran   48                   Rogers 45      

    NJ        Change Research        1006              Menendez     51                      Hugin 41      

    Wy       " "                                  858               Trauner          31                 Barrasso 60           "                                                                                                                                                                                      Ohio        " "                              923                 Brown             53                Renacci 43

    Wy HO           " “                       879                 Williams         48                Gianforte 52                       

     Wy HO          " "                       858                 Hunter            28                  Cheney 55                         

     SD HO            " "                      851                Bjorkman        41                  Johnson 51                             

    OH HO "                                "   350                Garrett          36                    Jordan   50                         

     NH HO     UNH                          321                Kuster           56                    Negron   35                           

     NH HO UNH                               309               Pappas 53                           Edwards  40

    Comments

    Election polling data is based on several guesses. A few of those guesses are: What percentage of the electorate will be democrat, independant, or republican. Which respondents to the poll are likely to vote. What percentage of the vote will be older, middle aged, or young. The raw data is weighted to reflect those guesses. Those initial guesses have already turned out to be incorrect in some ways. Early voting has been robust beyond all expectations. In 29 states early voting has vastly exceeded early voting in previous mid term elections. In three states early voting has already exceeded the total vote in 2014. In some ways this looks good for democrats. As someone posted, you or Arta, youth vote has seen a remarkable increase. In other ways it looks better for republicans. The generic ballot numbers are improving for republicans. But it looks to be an unusual election year and we just don't know who and how many will turn out to vote. 


    by ocean-kat on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 5:09pm

    youth turnout thing in first comment here; I'm gonna post more there if I see it, as I find it an interesting topic in itself. Just now while driving, heard a story on the local NPR, they went to a high school class in a public school in the Bronx debating how low they think the voting age should go--there were the ones for 15 and then the ones for 13. Suffice it to say, they wish they could vote tomorrow. laugh


    by artappraiser on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 6:06pm

    PSST: the two master poll wonk Nates, talking to each other on twitter: looks to me like they are basically admitting many election results are currently unpredictable:

     


    by artappraiser on Mon, 11/05/2018 - 7:38pm

    Yes . That's powerful


    by Flavius on Tue, 11/06/2018 - 12:36am

    When I started 2 weeks ago simply repeating the 538's daily reports from- the-front I was literally thinking

    " let's throw everything at the wall  and see what sticks."

    Or  more apt

    "with all this shit, there must be a pony  someplace."

    This is the pony. From when the "start"  (July 1 ? Feb 2017?) to now ,Nate says a 3% gain.

    I'll take that for encouragement until maybe  9 30 tomorrow evening.

    From having buried myself in paper work I did generate a sort of generalization ( the very thing we were looking for !) .

    I was looking to see whether ,in the past two weeks, post- Kavanaugh ,post the "Caravan" callous  heartlessness, there were signs of across- the- board back- sliding.  That's certainly not the case. Just turning the pages of those extracts - if you're basically numerical you at least con yourself into believing that you've sensed the  basic drift.

    Reminds me of a line from  Christopher Fry's  "A Phoenix too frequent"

    Alas Dnomini for   (whomever) ..........

     

    Who Made Balance Sheets sound like Homer

    And Homer sound like Balance Sheets

     


    by Flavius on Tue, 11/06/2018 - 1:20am

    interesting stuff on how/why the Independent factor can screw up pollsters in certain states:

    The always perceptive and often contrarian Bruce Gyory (with whom I happen to agree):
    "Therefore, I am reluctant to anoint Mitch McConnell as the next Majority Leader or to count Chuck Schumer out."https://t.co/oY6UfQuMwn

    — Bill Kristol (@BillKristol) November 5, 2018

    by artappraiser on Tue, 11/06/2018 - 12:11am


    by artappraiser on Thu, 11/29/2018 - 12:50pm