As I write this the DOW is down nearly 400 points! Sky is falling. European Banks are in crisis. Obama needs to get a plan. Fed needs to get a plan. Super committee needs to get a plan. Wait, the French banks are the problem, they are dumping gold in scads! Hold on, the price of gold is going up. Did you notice that oil dropped below $80? Toomey on the super committee, a tea party favorite--but he wants to reform the tax code so G.E. can't get away with paying no taxes.

My proposition here is that we are in such uncharted territory--politically, the super committee, our own economy, the emerging market inflation, the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, the political explosions in the Middle East, what the heck the Fed will do--we are in upheaval. Anyone who says he can predict much of anything in this environment is just plain naive. So what's the point of this rant?

When the deck of cards is being reshuffled as it is at this moment, new options emerge. Granted, this is all along the line of chaos the tea party wanted. But they're getting more than they bargained for, the world at large is not within the tea party's  control. What you need at a point like this is someone who can remain calm and take advantage of the situation.

Because Mad Men lapsed, I've been watching the BBC series HUSTLE. In one episode the "mark" is an uptight, bitchy rich woman. But she has two weaknesses. Attractive men and a fear of elevators. The team isolates her in a jammed elevator setup-- where Mickey, head con man, just happens to be. She panics. He talks her down. She's fascinated. Don't have to tell you the rest. World of opportunity. Does Obama have a bit of the hustler in him? A lot of people here would say yes, for a lot of different reasons.

Can Obama with his "adult in the room" strategy, but with a con or two against Re
publicans, make lemon aid out of a world of lemons? Many times we tend to look at the doom and gloom of things. There's plenty of that to go around. But here are a few ways things could break in Obama's favor and strengthen his hand.

The American consumer and pent up demand.  Never bet against the spending habits of consumers. The Affluent have a huge effect on the economy. If the market can stabilize and consumers can see out to the Fed's 2013 when things might pick up, they may start spending. The car shortage is a real factor. Design is a factor. I'm starting to see car designs out there I would kill for. It has been estimated that the pent up demand for cars could add 1.5 % GDP.

The Super Committee. Obviously a lot of rancor. But without the default threat, I can't see how this wrangling could possibly be as bad for consumer confidence as the threat of default was. There will be a solution. We will glide into the Fed's 2013 arena.

Gas prices down. Huge boost to the consumer and a help in the balance of payments. I might reconsider a Tahoe.

Trajectory. Timing is everything. There is the possibility of a snap back effect if the market in 2012 begins predicting better growth in 2013 and onward. More confidence, sudden uptick in spending. When you get a ratchet up, it multiplies down the supply line, usually overshooting--perhaps just before Nov. 2012. All of the above may move the unemployment figures in the right direction. Here is a good opportunity if Republicans have over invested in the bad economy theme and things turn up a few months before the election.

Recent polling.  e.g., in NV, showing moderates moving back to Obama. Maybe the adult strategy is working.

Bank stocks. Tanking. Maybe the market will split them up in parts without Obama doing anything. That's progressive.

Note in closing. Toomey. He's a possibility on the ticket with Perry in the battleground state of Pa. 

I can hear it now PERRY-TOOMEY. PERRY TOOMEY. If you chant that it sounds somewhat pornographic.

Like I said, it's really hard to predict anything right now.