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    My Thoughts About Cuba

    When the Soviet Union fell, there was adulation everywhere around the world and it was seen as a sign of "the end of history." (See book by the same title.) Everyone rejoiced except for the right wing in Russia, which recreated many of the institutions that existed during the USSR and put Vladimir Putin in charge of the task. (See the book Black Wind, White Snow.: The Rise of Russia's New Nationalism)

    Something very similar could occur in Cuba. Before Castro, there was a fascist dictator called Fulgencio Batista in place. Fidel Castro actually enjoyed the support of some right wing despots who shared his anti-Americanism. The possibility that whatever replaces the Castro regime (if that is what actually happens) would recreate authoritarianism is a whole lot more likely than that it will turn in to a Scandinavian social democracy.


    Plantanas to oranges. Batista wasn't really "fascist", just largely a dictator for the then banana republic style, 2/3 of the way into a 50's mafia scene that largely doesn't exist anymore, along with Che's revolutionary fervor, Communist chic that dried up after The Wall. Here's what Cuba's neighbor Dominican Republic's been doing while Haiti & Cuba have been floundering:

    Since the 2008 crash, Nicaragua's economy has taken off. Also note the low % agriculture makes up in its GDP.compared to others:

    But Cuba might prefer to be the Bahamas instead - with a lot of Florida retirement wealth to suck off of:

    Back 60 years ago when breaking the sound barrier was a big deal, the infiltration of revolutionary elements was a lot more possible than the age where we have Cuba well surrounded.
    Yes, there are a number of Batista fans in Little Havana, but it's been almost 69 years since the 26-year-old Castro started his effort, 62 1/2 years since Batista (and a lot of followers) fled the country on New Years.
    Most of the Miami crowd has retired or passed on, though I do try to remind that Latin America is largely founded on Caudillos - hardly progressive characters, but it won't be Sweden, and there's way more organized enterprising spirit for Cuba to turn into Haiti. Also, I think the free-wheeling American influence just 70 miles off Key West will keep it from being a Venezuelan-type enclave - been there, done that. Basically the East European model - especially the Vysegrad countries - is a closer model to what's likely to happen to Cuba than anything more fearful - sure, the anti-democrats didn't disappear, but their power diminished to economic spoils more than souring the overall democratic and free society gains pushed along by Soros. Once that first crumbling of the Cuban Wall occurs - not just protests, but what frightens & turns the old guard to flight - the muses will be released. The authoritarianism you describe might have had more a chance 30 years ago, but now we're off into way different types of business models, economic possibilities, and simply cultural attitudes. 65 years of vintage American cars has been enough for even the devout to get sick of it. And Cuba's really too far & different for Putin to bolster it like Belarus or his help in Venezuela. The people are ready to pop - theyve been waiting for this moment, and the Castro leadership's no longer there to power the hegemony.
    PS - better to have Cubans pushing the next stage of their evolution than a strong US presence - i.e. East Germans tearing down the Wall, not a staged troop-enabled toppling of Saddam's statue. That little bit of video PR is extremely important. Especially where leftist propaganda likes continuously railing about the "colonialist occupiers" and the international ocmmunity, no matter how bad the domestic leadership & conditions get.

    Hello on your D.R. vs. Haiti comparison:

    p.s. I really get a kick out of The Woke who try to make the argument that it is all the effect of buying into white colonial hegemony, as Dominicans have a storied preference for lighter skin and are therefore part of the system. Whatever. If you are a failure, you're a failure. Haitians supposedly had their independence since 1804. So they are basically saying it is hopeless to even try until all white-skinned people are killed and enslaved or what? Cause those white devils will keep you down no matter what you do? Like they prevented you from learning to read, write and do maths for 200+ years? Etc. Actually does make a great case for our founders limiting right to vote to property owners who were likely to be educated until public education make some inroads. Democracy and illiteracy don't mix well...

    the only hint available about what Cubans as a whole think

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