The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Nevada primary. It's Sat. nite and showtime!

    By artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:05pm |

     

    Early NBC News Entrance Polls: The Nevada Democratic caucus electorate is 66% white, 17% Latino, 10% black, 7% other. (By contrast, Iowa and New Hampshire were ~90% white.)

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 22, 2020

    Early @NBCNews entrance poll of NV

    • Those who’d rather have a nominee who agrees them on issues: Sanders 56%, Warren 11%, Buttigieg 10%

    •Those who’d rather have a nominee who can beat Trump: Sanders 23%, Biden 19%, Buttigieg 18%

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 22, 2020

    Early @NBCNews entrance polls of NV: Vote among Democrats who decided in the last few days

    Sanders 24%
    Buttigieg 18%
    Warren 17%
    Biden 15%
    [uncommitted] 10%
    Klobuchar 10%

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 22, 2020

    Comments


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:14pm

    suggestion that this concept might be operating some here:

    HOW DEMOCRATS CAN TALK ABOUT RACE AND WIN

    By artappraiser on Tue, 02/18/2020 - 9:48pm 

    A new project reveals that combining race and class can be a winning message for Democrats in November and beyond.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:30pm

    Here are the actual proposals listed on Warren's website 

    • My student debt cancellation plan will help close the wealth gap between Black and white families.

    • My criminal justice plan will end the practice of mass incarceration that has destroyed the lives of so many Black and brown men and their families.

    • My housing plan will help families living in formerly redlined areas buy a home and start building the kind of wealth that government-sponsored discrimination denied their parents and grandparents. 

    • My plan for entrepreneurs of color will level the playing field by creating a new program with $7 billion in funding to provide grants to entrepreneurs of color. 

    • My environmental justice plan includes justice for the Black and Brown communities that have struggled with the impact of pollution, and my plan respects the rights of Native Americans to protect their lands and be good stewards of this earth.

    • And on day one of my Administration, I will use my executive authority to start closing the pay gap between women of color and everyone else - because it’s about time we fully valued the work of women of color.

    https://elizabethwarren.com/plans/agenda-black-america

     

    What the liberal PMC thinks minorities want: critical race theory, latinx, race-based reparations

    What most minority voters actually want: decent jobs, guaranteed health care, decent shot for all families regardless of race

    Jilani is full of crap regarding what programs are being offered.


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:40pm

    No current Democratic candidate has reparations as a major proposal 

    The likelihood that reparations would ever become official remains slim, with even prominent leaders in the black community calling the idea nearly impossible to implement. “You’ve got to satisfy two problems, one of which is the legality of it and the other is the practicality of it,” argued Majority Whip Jim Clyburn in an interview with The Hill, pointing out, for instance, the question of whether mixed-race descendants of slaves had intangible advantages over their counterparts. It would be even harder financially: University of Connecticut professor Thomas Craemer recently estimated that reparations would cost the country between $6 trillion and $14 trillion.

    https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2019/04/2020-democratic-candidates-on-reparations


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:59pm

    Jilani is reacting to an actual video of an actual caucus with an actual Steyer supporter trying to sell her fellow caucus goers on reparations. 


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 6:10pm

    I admit that I forgot Steyer was running, I stand corrected. Steyer wasn't on stage at the Nevada debate. 
    The polling I've seen doesn't place Steyer in the top 2 in any upcoming primary. Jilani suggests that reparations are major proposals by Democratic candidates in general. If he means one candidate is running on reparations he should say that. Sanders, Biden, Buttigieg, Warren, Klobuchar, and Bloomberg are not running on reparations. They address education, health care, jobs, immigration, voter suppression, and racism. Again Jilani is full of crap.

     


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 8:01pm

    Nate Silver says go to their Liveblog:

    also retweeted this after the above:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:18pm

    it's Vegas babee:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:25pm

    Frank Luntz is using Daily Kos' ap for vote reporting, will wonders never cease?


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 4:37pm

    some anti-Bernie panic that I am seeing:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 5:45pm

    Non-whites much stronger for Bernie, and Biden after that. Whites so far coming out with Biden at the bottom. Whites like Buttigieg much more than people of color:

     


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 5:56pm

    p.s. and Klobuchar doesn't even register with non-whites, while #3 with whites?


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 5:57pm

    WOW Klobuchar not registering white ethnic minorities. Steyer did not get a return on his investment. 


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 5:58pm

    Steyer did not get a return on his investment

    Huh? He's running third with non-whites but doesn't register on whites. It's the reverse of Klobuchar, she's third with whites and doesn't register with non-whites.

    p.s. comes to mind that Steyer does talk reparations, straight out talking about it.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 6:03pm

    Steyer is not a major player in this.


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:00pm

    NBC News entrance polls of Democrats on Medicare for All: 57-38% support in Iowa, 58-37% support in New Hampshire, 62-35% support in Nevada.

    Maybe the candidates who staked their primary campaigns on opposing Medicare for All miscalculated.

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 22, 2020

    I would just add this big cavaet: these are registered Democrats he's talking about. All of this primary stuff is about what registered Democrats think so far. This is NOT Independents and swings! I'm not saying I know what they think on Medicare-for-all nor on Bernie, etc. But media framing of this as "what the people are thinking" is a dangerous thing to do. 

    When we get to open primary states we're going to have even more confusion on this. I.E. there will be stuff like actual enemies of the left crossing over and voting for Bernie on purpose, because they think he will ensure a Dem presidential loss (whether that's true or not, it's going to confuse the issue.)


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 6:47pm

    FWIW, Trump's happy:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 6:51pm

    Warren war room spin and Jilani deconstruction.

    I'm not sure whether what he's saying applies to ST, tho. Like say, the big one, California.But what do I know.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 9:44pm

    Good point on California, found retweeted by Maggie Haberman:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:37pm


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 9:48pm

    Steyer ran on reparations and lost the black vote 4:1

    Edit to add: 

    Steyer is projected to receive half of the black vote that Biden receives

    https://www.wltx.com/article/news/politics/winthrop-democratic-poll-south-carolina-democratic-primary/101-643ca85d-aabb-4731-b493-97f40e5642de


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:18pm

    I take that as another data point that your blackplainin' here is a waste of time; you're the only one here who has argued like reparations are a highly important issue for "the black community" when you decide to speak for them all to the rest of us supposedly clueless on Dagblog.

    Anyhew, to everyone else; an important point I just heard or saw someone mention: there are a lot of Native Americans in rural Nevada, and these votes will take longer to come in, and many expect them to boost Bernie's numbers.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:16pm

    Yawn

    Nice attempt at diversion. Jilani said candidates (plural) were focused on reparations, that is not true. The discussion is about Jilani's post. 

    My opinion differs from yours. Because I don't agree with you, you divert by saying that I am speaking for all blacks. I could argue that you feel that you can dictate what blacks can and can't protest be it statues, hair, entertainment awards, etc.

    Regarding the vote:

    If Sanders is the candidate, I will vote for him. If Bloomberg is the winner, I will vote for him.

     


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:32pm

    No intent to divert. To me, you are misreading the nuance of the conversation Jilani was involved in. You jump to misinterpret in order to argue with your favorite strawmen topics, instead of keeping an open mind to people saying complex things, you need to fit them in your simplistic strawmen categories. I don't agree that he was saying anything like what you are implying. It is a waste to go further, we read differently.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 11:09pm

    What the liberal PMC thinks minorities want: critical race theory, latinx, race-based reparations

    What most minority voters actually want: decent jobs, guaranteed health care, decent shot for all families regardless of race

    Warren lays out her proposals. Buttigieg has his Douglass plan. Other Democratic candidates offer the same thing, Democratic candidates are proposing what Jilani says black voters actually want. My reading skills are fine.


    by rmrd0000 on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 11:56pm

    dupe


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:28pm

    Meanwhile, take a look at what Team Bloomberg twitter been up to today, I imagine Facebook is similar:

    Retweeted:

    Gwinnett County is ready to turn Georgia blue and #GetitDone for @Mike2020! #Bloomberg2020 pic.twitter.com/YzdHs5VXK7

    — Georgia for Mike (@GAforMike) February 22, 2020

    Retweeted:

    We all have a story to tell. Loved hearing from @COforMike about why they are all in for @MikeBloomberg #GetItDone #Bloomberg2020 pic.twitter.com/gpbEkRIJTC

    — Dhani Jones (@DhaniJones) February 22, 2020

    All across the USA, people like Mike!

    Join us in a movement to remove Trump from the White House and restore our country’s unity. pic.twitter.com/hHqzQpf5r6

    — Team Bloomberg (@Mike2020) February 22, 2020

    President Nez of the Navajo Nation met with the @AZforMike team to discuss Diné sovereignty, self-determination, and the bright future of the Navajo Nation.

    We are honored that he joined us! pic.twitter.com/3X4mhFVaa7

    — Team Bloomberg (@Mike2020) February 22, 2020

    Retweeted:

    'It's like when Oprah endorsed Obama': Judge Judy on campaign trail with Bloomberg https://t.co/z7UlZeAxKr pic.twitter.com/TninAqr8ge

    — New York Post (@nypost) February 22, 2020

    Vamos, join #GanamosConMike! We are proud to launch a strong coalition for our Latino community.

    Join #GanamosConMike: https://t.co/UGwACwt7eM pic.twitter.com/zfx38Rh1nP

    — Team Bloomberg (@Mike2020) February 23, 2020

    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:27pm

    point on eventual turnout numbers:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:35pm


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:45pm

    Pundits make too much about caucuses. They measure enthusiasm more than anything else. As all of us who followed the primary in 2016 and as PP recently pointed out, in some caucus states that also have a primary vote Sanders won the caucus and lost the vote. I'm not saying he's not doing well or that he can't win. Just that we won't know until some of the larger diverse states have a simple vote.


    by ocean-kat on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 11:28pm


    by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 1:54am

    What horseshit.
    A total of 118,000 Dems caucused in Nevada in 2008, only 84,000 in 2016.
    This year 70k-75k "voted early", though somehow in places that included up to 3 hour waits so people - doesn't that defeat the purpose of voting early? And how is voting early participating in a caucus where you have the pressure and excitement to maybe shift your vote based on reason and fanbois? Or is it a hybrid primary w/o the benefits? [narrator: yes, it's a hybrid primary/caucus, even though the "primary" uses cacus fallback choice rules]

    So about 55,000 are listed as having shown up for the caucus at this time. Meaning a total of perhaps 120k-130k voters choose the candidates in a state of over 3 million people.

    Takeaway? Fuck this. Super Tuesday will bring a wave of actual primaries, and we'll get to see who actually has serious support for November, even though it's all cockeyed and confused by now, and largely driven by media's inability to keep more than 2 names straight.

    Some voters waited well over three hours to vote in at least one precinct on Saturday, and some voters worried that the delays would continue throughout the four-day process.
    Voters even began to drive around Las Vegas looking for early voting sites with shorter lines. While the Culinary Union set up an early voting site at their hall to support their union members, conversations with Nevadans who had voted there revealed that many of them were not union members.
    Debbie Curtis, a teacher in the state, told CNN Saturday she saw people walk away after waiting for an extended period of time at Palo Verde High School in Las Vegas.

    So we're mostly down to Bernie, Biden, Pete & Liz. How will that look for South Carolina, where the Black vote comes in along with being a primary plus in the South, the more traditional and first much larger batch of voters - 370,000 Dems voted in 2016. Who can rise about the noise for the last contest before Super Tuesday? Will Amy survive even? Does Warren have any kind of traction or is it all Pete in largely tying with Bernie in a caucus state? Is Biden still seen as viable or as a wounded bird? Where does the Bloomberg rich safe semi-conservative vote go, if not to Biden?

     


    by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 2:33am

    Interesting point by Jamelle Bouie & anonymous friend:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 10:49pm

    Andrew Yang:

    and he retweeted this part of his CNN appearance:


    by artappraiser on Sat, 02/22/2020 - 11:02pm

    Bernie's NV support was still heavily, heavily with those under 40, the elders are still split more evenly:

    Biggest fault line in the Democratic Party is generational (which I think has ideological overtones).

    Bernie's big NV margin comes from making inroads with older demos. But he still has a big drop-off around age 40. pic.twitter.com/UY2J7sS9fE

    — Bill Scher (@billscher) February 23, 2020

    by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 12:52am

    Guilty as charged to feeding this horse race syndrome. I'll try to do better:


    by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 8:58pm

    this general takeaway is one worth sharing, though, I think it's important. This is the founding editor of Politico:


    by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 9:03pm

    got to add this. Joe Biden comes in second, likely to get delegates:

    Joe Biden will finish second in Nevada, NBC News projects. https://t.co/XKdQ9EO1mN

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) February 24, 2020

     


    by artappraiser on Sun, 02/23/2020 - 9:40pm