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    An Open Convention In Tampa - Maybe

    By Elusive Trope on Tue, 12/20/2011 - 10:42am |

    Let's face it, winning Iowa isn't that big of a deal.  And it is a big deal.  For the GOP this time around.  Peter Fenn has some interesting points and critical questions about this year's race for the Republican nomination. Starting with

    Filing deadlines matter, completing delegate slates matter, the arcane rules of proportional delegates versus winner take all versus some sort of hybrid, really matter!

    Can Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich get the math and organization right, even if he is up in the polls? Can candidates who clearly can't win the nomination (Rep. Ron Paul, for example) amass enough delegates to take to the convention to deny a first ballot victory and play power broker? Will a group of the Republican candidates hang in because they foresee a possible open convention, unlike what we have seen in generations?

    He continues:

    Here are some facts, courtesy of Virginia professor Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball:  345 delegates (15 percent ) will be selected prior to Super Tuesday on March 6th; 564 delegates will be selected on Super Tuesday (25 percent ); the remaining delegates, 1,355 (59 percent ) will be selected after the Super Tuesday March 6th contests.

    If this is a long slog we need to do some analysis now of who is missing filing deadlines, who is unable to get on the ballot, who can't compete organizationally. Gingrich already missed Missouri and didn't file a full slate of delegates in New Hampshire. Where is he (and others) in the other states that follow?

    He ends with:

    The point is that we have not seen a complete analysis of each state, their rules, the candidates' filings, the way delegates will be apportioned.

    Newt doesn't have to win Iowa, or even New Hampshire.  A victory in South Carolina can give him enough reason to go the distance.  Ron Paul has already shown it doesn't matter how many delegates he has - he will be there in Tampa with his delegates.  Does Santorum feel the need to influence the platform and to get a little more air time?  What about Bachman?

    And the longer the race goes, the more likely conservative voters will not be voting for the victory (putting aside the notion that people want to vote for a winner), but to give enough power to their candidate (at least the candidate closest to their personal socio-political agenda) so that it will influence the discourse at the convention and the general election.  Romney might just win, they will think, but my guy or gal will damn well make sure Mitt keeps to the conservative view. 

    In other words, we might just see a wild wild convention in Tampa like we haven't seen before. 

    Comments

    I wonder if a more brokered convention, would draw large protests to Tampa? The Democrats know there will be large protests in Charlotte because of banking offices there.

    by trkingmomoe on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 12:44am

    Protesters regardless of their political stripes tend to seek the greatest amount of media exposure as possible.  This makes sense - the point of the protest is to make one's point of view known, even if the message is targeted at a specific target of individuals and/or organizations, if for the only reason to help swell the their ranks.

    The media will be there regardless of whether it is an open convention or a formality of crowning the nominee.  But if the event is just a lead up to the inevitable crowning of someone like Mitt, most people are not going to tune in to listen to some canned speeches and balloons falling.

    But if there is going to be a knock-down drag-em-out fight on the "convention floor" (especially considering the intensity of some of Paul's supporters) with a flurry of backroom-dealing speculation (and the inevitable tales of conspiracies and backstabbing), then it will have the same draw as any reality tv show, except this one will be unfolding in real time and its outcome will have some significant consequences for the American political landscape.

    So, yes, it will draw more protesters who know that it isn't just the hardcore GOP supporters and political junkies watching the scene in Tampa.  People who the protesters want to persuade and convince.  This in turn has the potential to create more conflict between the authorities and the protesters, now more threatening because of their numbers, which only creates the likelihood of even more viewers.

    Good times. Good times.


    by Elusive Trope on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 10:09am

    Who is to stop the Republicans from having protestors and media arrested-in-advance as they did last time? Obama? Holder? We'll see.


    by Donal on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 11:03am

    Who knows.  But an open convention would just mean that if this was the case numerically their task would be more daunting.

    One other thing to consider is the protesters, or maybe a better term would be demonstrators, would not all necessarily be liberal - OWS folks.  An open convention would increase the likelihood of conservative demonstrators showing up in order to influence the outcome of the debate inside the convention.  This would change the complexity of the Republicans attempting to do preventative measures.


    by Elusive Trope on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 1:06pm

    I think a 'brokered convention' would be great.

    Without getting into real analysis here with links and such I think Hillary lost because she just figured the 'super-delegates' would end up endorsing her. Meanwhile, the geniuses that Barry had were working hard behind the scenes procuring those caucus votes. It was in the caucuses that Hillary lost. In my humble opinion as they say. And Hillary cared about her party and her country and the convention seemed united.

    Paul is really our only hope that all hell breaks loose at the repub convention. He will never shut up.

    Now add the half-wit Bachmann and an evangelical thrust by Ricky Santorum and my dream could be realized.

    We have already witnessed the perfectly coordinated lock step of the Congressional repubs fall into disarray.

    There is something happening here and corporate America is not really keyed into exactly what is happening or how to stop it!

    I predict, as long as Paul keeps on keepin on (and he can never be nominated by this convention and no one would trust him as a VP)

    ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOOSE.

    HURRAY!


    by Richard Day on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 3:26pm

    Actually I was thinking of Newt, who 1) has a huge ego and would love the spotlight this would provide him, which would lead to 2) more book sales.  Throw in the others like Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum and, yes, it will be a fun party indeed.


    by Elusive Trope on Wed, 12/21/2011 - 3:30pm