George Bush misapplied the term "turd blossom" to Karl Rove because the term requires a person to hold two opposing images in mind at the same time---cow dung vs. flowers---and Rove is definitely not a flower. But the term does accurately describe the economic green shoots which are now, after three years, beginning to push their way up through the pile of crap left behind by George Bush. And for the economy itself there are definitely two distinct lines of thought---a bit of complexity---will the sprigs of blue bells and lavender continue to grow and prosper or is our economy still all just a pile of doo-doo?

(With respect to Karl Rove I see no complexity at all. My consistent image of Rove is of a four inch green banana slug slithering on top of a pile of the hot wet stuff.)

One cow pie which is at once a hopeful sign as well as a pile of negativity is---the terrible housing sector. Normally the housing sector provides about 7% of GDP but now is barely 2%. The good thing is that there are signs of improvement elsewhere even though the housing sector is basically dormant. A small amount of odor abatement in the housing sector will produce an outsized quantity of fresh air to the economy. 

The Federal Reserve has its own pasture and in my opinion is independently dedicated to helping prevent any loose stuff in Europe from contaminating the fields in the U.S. To meet its employment mandate the Fed will not allow the dollar to appreciate enough to dampen exports---which is one of the most durable green shoots we have in our improving economy.  If we get a load of manure in the U.S. from a Congress which fails to extend the payroll tax cuts and extend unemployment benefits, my belief is that the Fed will step in with QE3---this time by purchasing MBS's instead of treasuries.

Today's improved job numbers are one of a handful of poke weeds which have sprung up in the last few months. If you put raw poke weed in a salad you will most likely poison yourself. But the other aspect of poke weed is that it's tasty if you cook and put it in, say, scrambled eggs. (Remember to pick the shoots from the top of the plant away from where the dogs pee) Yes, the employment rate went down to 8.6 %---but there is raw poke weed in the fact that the number of people looking for work also declined. But we need to try to hold in mind the thought that jobs are being created rather than the reverse. In fact, the last three months non-farm payrolls have increased by over 400K, or a 1.7 million annual rate. 

The other poke weed shoots which look greener, picking from the top of the weed, are 1) leading economic indicators 2) consumer confidence 3) consumer spending, including vehicles 4) capital expenditures 5) and I almost forgot, the ISM numbers. Overall manufacturing is improving, which is a very good sign.

The phrase "turd blossom" being politically tainted brings to mind the question of how Barack Obama might fare in the mixed-message economy which is dogging his Presidency. (I know that the barn doors just swung wide open). Payroll tax cuts and unemployment insurance could mean as much as 1.5% of GDP and up to a million new jobs in the coming year. If the legislation is not passed the momentum in the economy will slow. As has been pointed out, the GOP faces a continuing crucial question. Are they going to double down on tea party intransigence in order to wound this economy, and Obama with it? If so, they stand the chance of being blamed and being dropped in a cow pasture in the 2012 election.

One reason that better ISM numbers are important, at least to Obama, is an analysis done by Nate Silver in which he isolated which economic indicators had the best predictive power for incumbents running for re-election. Silver discovered that the highest correlation to outcomes for incumbents was the ISM index in the nine months preceding the election.   

While turd blossom doesn't describe Rove by himself, the plural does describe Rove and his front runner, Gingrich, viewed together---turd blossoms---because twins are in themselves complex. If the economy actually does blossom over the next year, at least one of these clods will be shoveled back into obscurity.