We're making it too complicated

    If unemployment had been 4.5% Tuesday Pelosi would be Speaker next session. No matter what Obama had done during the last two years.

    If it's 9.5% two years from now it will be a Republican sweep no matter what he does during the next two.

    Anyone disagree?

     

     

    Comments

    I do. I think it is more complicated than that.

    The unemployment rate is not going to be 4.5% two years from now, or any time soon.

    And no matter what the unemployment rate is two years from now, it matters who the Republicans nominate for President.  It matters what happens over the next two years, and how it happens.  It matters what is going on at the time and in the runup to the election, how people feel about it, and how they relate it or don't relate it to what they perceive is happening with our politics.


    Every Tom, Dick and Harry on the planet is out there telling us what this election means, and I don't think anyone knows, because, as far as I can tell, the voters don't even know.

    It seems to me like a bunch of people voted based on faulty information, and sometimes with no information at all. People are pissed off and to some degree scared, and they went off half cocked and voted irrationally.

    Just as voting for "change" in 2008 when there was no real consensus on what that meant turned out to be a disappointment, they are once again voting with no clear idea of what they are voting for, and are likely to be disappointed again.

    In daily conversations, I hear people talking about the need for the 2 parties to work together, but the repubs expressly, and without reservation, said prior to the election that there would be no compromise, and mitch mcconnel is still saying that, while Harry Reid falls all over himself saying, yeah we'll work with you...

    I really, truly, have a hard time believing that the American people deep down inside want the the selfish, do-everything-you-can-to-help-the-rich/screw-the-poor/decimate-the-middle-class policies the right seems to embrace, yet here we are.

    I don't how you make sense of an election that makes no sense.


    I really, truly, have a hard time believing that the American people deep down inside want the the selfish, do-everything-you-can-to-help-the-rich/screw-the-poor/decimate-the-middle-class policies the right seems to embrace, yet here we are.

    Of course they don't.  And the folks who voted Republican obviously don't see it that way.  They have a different narrative, a different world view, with different heroes and heroines and different villains. 

    There is a yawning narrative gap now.  The Republicans have a simple narrative: the economy sucks, Obama and the Democrats have been in power for two whole years.  So vote Republican unless you want more of the same.

    On the other side, the Democrats' narrative is...well, there must be a narrative, right, because we're talking about professional politicians and skilled, experienced people who know that competing narratives are important in affecting election outcomes, that if the other side has a narrative that resonates even somewhat and your side doesn't really have a narrative that resonates or inspires any confidence, you might, well, get shellacked.  Right? 

    You've reached the conclusion that the Democrats often are really bad at messaging (yes, often--BClinton was good at it and that's one reason why he won.)  Messaging needs to be easily connectable to a believable narrative to be effective.  Like Genghis wrote, "Tell me a story."  Democratic pundit E.J. Dionne, Jr. reached a similar major  conclusion in his column "The Next One Matters More": http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/11/02/AR2010110207190.html (free registration may be required) 


    Marshall Ganz's take: For an interpretation from an experienced grassroots political organizer, see also "How Obama Lost His Voice, and How He Can Get It Back", organizer Marshall Ganz's November 3 LA Times opinion piece.  It makes reference to Obama's use of narrative during the campaign:

    http://www.latimes.com/news/opinion/commentary/la-oe-1103-ganz-obama-20101103,0,486277.story

    Robert Kuttner offered a policy wonk (but accessible, well written, not technical) perspective that is, it seems to me, broadly compatible with what Ganz and Dionne have written, at:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/post_1183_b_776752.html


    Come on, Stilli. There was indeed consensus. Remember that whole Democratic convention thing in Denver? It served a larger purpose than just being a showcase for the lights of the Democratic party to play rock star. Delegates from every state in the nation came together and formed a consensus on what the Democratic platform was to be. Democratically ... with a boatload of hoary rules to ensure that the minority opinion was given air and the whole mess. They wrote it down.

    Then the national candidate: Barack Obama, took the platform to the voters and provided a concrete and specific set of policies and plans to make that real. He published them in serious places like actuarial journals with implementation specifics in contrast to McCain's specious non-specific platitudes ... he even signed it with his name. We had a great national debate - much of it was televised. And while the economy didn't completely crumble until late in that process, the Democratic platform still provides a pretty decent road map and priority list for addressing an ailing economy both in general principles and specific policy which Obama adhered to during the campaign.  Ultimately America decided that Obama's very specific plans and the Democratic platform sounded good and we'd like the Democratic party to implement them, forming a national consensus with our votes - overwhelmingly voting Democrats into every station in government.

    Done. That's the interplay between the voters and the elected officials in our representative democracy which occurs every four years ... pretty much the wiktionary definition of consensus. It doesn't matter how many polls they take or how many millions of dollars people who weren't happy with the consensus decision spend to undermine it. The consensus was indeed reached. The fortitude to hold that course in a storm and fight with everything they have to deliver is the measure of a public servant. The latitude for adjusting course to avoid rocks should not be construed as carte-blanch to unilaterally redraw the charts immediately upon winning election.

    This election result makes sense to me. And to a lot of other people who have been warning the party for a year and a half that the course of action Democrats have been following would yield this exact result. It turns out tossing those people under the doghouse and trying to "message" instead of returning to the consensus course didn't make the observations any less prescient. You just don't like the answer to the riddle.

     


    Having pleased--enough--53% of those who showed up, he set about redoubling his efforts to please the other 47% even more, making sure to let the 53% know he thought they were really pretty extreme for...?  Being among the 53%, I guess.  So he went about his search for his Holy Grail of, I don't know, 70% or 90% or 100% approval, or perhaps ownership of that mythical sweet "center" which lies precisely equidistant between whatever mythical Democrat and mythical Republican are saying at any given moment on whatever issue is under discussion

    Seriously trying to do that is a great prescription for losing your way and...well, the last two years and Tuesday night.  He was fortunate it wasn't even worse.

    Ok, I don't really believe that.  But it contains a kernel of truth that seems important to me in understanding what has occurred so far.


    The Great Recession changed everything.  You can't write a platform during normal economic times, and then expect to govern according to the very same platform following an intervening financial market meltdown which featured the bankruptcy and disappearance of some of the most powerful components of our economic system, the evaporation a a large pecentage of household wealth and retirement savings, and the stripping of tens of millions of jobs from the economy.

    Obama treated the recesion as an annoying interruption of his plans.   He should have treated it instead as an opportunity, and should have devised a new plan to start making lemonade out of the lemons right away.  He could have done almost anything he wanted back in the Spring of 2009, when he was extremely popular.

    Obama is a very focussed and organized guy, which can be a good thing.  But this failure to act imaginitely and creatively in reponse to crises is a pattern.  The samething happened during the horrible Gulf oil gusher, when his disposition and body language were very telling the country, "Dear God, please make this oil stop gushing so I can go back to my plan."

    He needs to get a little bit more carpe diem spirit.  Strong leaders thrive in a crisis.  They don't wish the crises would just go away so they can return to presiding as the mastrer of ceremonies over business as usual.  A crisis is the time when you restructure and move rapidly to outmaneuver your competitors, clean out the dead wood and mobilize the organizational will to accomplish important tasks for which there is a lack of will in more ordinary times.


    If it's 9.5, the republicans will say we tried and tried to repeal all the disatrous legislation from 2009 and 10 but we didn't have big enough majorities.  Give them to us. 

    If things get better they'll say.  See we fixed it.  Give us the presidency now. 


    Doesn't this echo back to the suggestion that Obama should have taken the stimulus money and hired every unemployed American for a period of two years at minimum wage rates, which would have brought the unemployment rate down to zero, then, after the midterms force the Repubs to vote to cut the funding and they'd be held accountable for the result; increasing unemployment figures.

    All kidding aside, I disagree with your premise too.  If unemployment is 9% or above the Repubs are toast.  The Repubs only get a boost from low unemployment figures in 2012 if the figure is 3% or less.  Anything else can be spun to Obama's advantage imo.


    If nothing terrible happens, and nothing miraculous, between now and 2012, then the unemployment rate will be around 12% and the underemployment rate around 20%, and 15-20% of mortgages on their way to foreclosure.

    And in that case either Obama steps aside à la LBJ, or we pray that the GOP come up with someone really really awful, worse even than Palin. Like Lex Luthor, or Amanda Peet. Dunno...


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