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Mr. Gingrich, bwana, what about Freddy Mac?

The Swedish author Henning Mankel who created the "Kurt Wallander" series has written a novel about Africa, where he lived for twenty years. In "The Eye of the Leopard", a young Swede travels to Zambia on a two week trip and stays eighteen years. It is the late 60's, post independence, and the white farmers are carrying on their work in a dangerous and uneasy balance with the Africans. The country is a pressurized tank of steam ready to blow. The Swede takes a "temporary" job as the foreman of a farm but has never managed workers. 

"How should I treat them?", he asks.

"Firmly", the owner says. "The Africans are always looking for your weak point, those moments when you can be talked into something. Give them nothing; find something to complain about the first time they wash your clothes. Even if there's nothing; then they'll know that you make demands...."

It is not hard to imagine bwana Gingrich in the role of the privileged farm owner. Following his quick rise in the polls Gingrich's messages quickly became focused on the degrading "southern strategy" of using coded messages for blacks and minorities to scapegoat them for the nation's ills. The strategy apparently appeals to a large part of the Republican base. "Poor people in the projects don't know about work", "they get their money from drugs", they'd make good janitors if you got them young enough. And of course, their leader, Barack Obama, is the best "food stamp President" we've ever had.

A turd blossom economy.

George Bush misapplied the term "turd blossom" to Karl Rove because the term requires a person to hold two opposing images in mind at the same time---cow dung vs. flowers---and Rove is definitely not a flower. But the term does accurately describe the economic green shoots which are now, after three years, beginning to push their way up through the pile of crap left behind by George Bush. And for the economy itself there are definitely two distinct lines of thought---a bit of complexity---will the sprigs of blue bells and lavender continue to grow and prosper or is our economy still all just a pile of doo-doo?

Newt Gingrich is not a pretty bird.

Newt Gingrich is now the front runner in a discordant Republican primary process as beautiful as angry alligators mating in a swamp or birds fighting over a smeared hamburger wrapper from a fast food dumpster. One might think that troubled times at home and abroad would bring forth American citizens from great traditions of military service, public service, economics, science or notable business careers. Instead Republicans have a field of flawed candidates. If these candidates somehow managed to slip into a conference of distinguished Americans they would be seated at a table by themselves in the corner of the banquet hall fighting over rolls and butter like a flock or voracious grackles. What is the cause of such low brow Republican candidates and a selection process which seems to go against our better nature? Why an ugly bird like Gingrich? 

NEWT Gingrich: Thought Leader for Hire.

For the past decade Newt Gingrich has been called a "Thought Leader"—a glib PR term coined in the '90's and one which in my opinion should be stood up against a fence and shot along with gag-response phrases like "nuanced argument", "heavy hitter" and "core competency". Since his Speakership, Gingrich has amassed a fortune speaking and writing his thoughts on issues as diverse as home ownership, health care, abortion, cap and trade, and education—to name a few. It seems that Gingrich's thoughts matter. Stanley Elkin in his essay, "Some Overrated Masterpieces", stated that, "... the odd thing about words is the cockeyed weight they're permitted to bear." In Gingrich's case—even more so. He's quotable and printable.

What Gingrich's thoughts are worth in a Presidential run we are about to find out. His speaking style is facile. He is the invented character—used car salesman with a PHD. His followers regard him as very, very smart. His numerous segues from arcane references, to the appearance of moderation and then to hell-fire-demonizing of the Left occur at lightning speed. A reference to the Transcontinental Railroad will send his followers rummaging around the labyrinths of their minds to find an association and finding none they conclude that the man must be brilliant.

The 1% fail to manage perceptions.

The Democratic victories in yesterday's elections coupled with the recent birth of the Occupy movement seem to be evidence of a different political climate than we had even two or three months ago. It appears that we are out of the doldrums, a bit of a wind in the mainsail. I am tempted to meld all the different events into a pattern, disregarding the nature of the separate events. I want to say things like, "changed perceptions got people up off the couch," "now Democrats have a new reality," as if there were clear relationships between cause and effect. But it's not that easy. If my car stopped on the freeway because it "ran out of gas", contingent causes might be that my gas gage was broken and I was too cheap to repair it. But aside from the complexities of cause and effect and the invention of new realities, why do Democrats seem to have things going their way? 

Presidential stream of consciousness

...raymond always said my game is persistence...i'm  still here....more persistent...i've got barack obama's number...raymond is dead now...sorry, old boss I took your job but you said everyone would underestimate my persistence...you were my best boss...it's the presidential bearing, and dress well and its human nature they will drop the ball right in front of you....a career, you said, a career is putting the right spin on the ball so it keeps dropping in f

Heartbreak Motel: The employed, the unemployed and the unemployable

I spent the last two days away from home on a job site in Tulsa. One of my clients was considering switching to a competitor. I have a "resource recovery" company---or, put another way, we scrounge the back lots of industrial plants looking for commodities which can be recycled and re-used. Our employees are well trained and long term and they do well on earnings. They drive our trucks and equipment to remote locations. and my insurance company requires drug testing. Because we control costs and like to make a bit of a profit there is a limit on how much we'll spend for a motel. When I'm on the road, which I don't enjoy, I stay where my workers stay.

Heartbreak Motel sits on the intersection of two truck routes. The four corners are a stark melding of the food chain and the employment ladder. On one corner is a convenience store and cash-only gas station---the bottom rung of life in a gritty America.  Outside, behind the store, four homeless people stand around a compressor smoking and making ready for the night with pieces of card board to sleep on. A police car idles two hundred feet away, pointed in their direction. I say to hell with it and walk over to the store. A small bottle of milk and some cookies might come in handy if I wake up at the motel in the middle of the night and have the creeps. As I try to go into the store a guy forces me off the sidewalk. I ignore him. Coming back out a woman blocks my path, "Are you stayin' over there for the night?"

Lack of confidence spurs spending.

According to yesterday's GDP numbers the engine of American Consumption is back on the tracks and rolling along at a surprising clip. The odd thing is that Consumer Confidence still remains at a near historic low. Typically an increase in consumption is preceded by a rise in confidence. So why is the spending train rolling along while confidence is like a caboose sidetracked in the train yard?

A Sept. 15th report by Ross DeVol at the Milkin Institute not only predicted good GDP and consumption numbers for the 3rd Quarter but explained the root cause of the precipitous drop in consumer confidence over the Summer and its disconnect from actual consumer behavior which kept chugging along underneath.

If you're thinking that the decline in confidence had some connection to our national politics you'd be right. DeVol correlates the decline in confidence to a decline in the approval ratings of -- the Congress!

Obama's Refinance Program--it stinks good.

The fire bloggers are already on "Obama's Plan" like flies on Schweddy Balls ice cream. There's so much chatter and misinformation about this plan that I hesitate to write this post and add to the problem. But certain facts seem to be clear and I'm advising an underwater guy in Vermont, so here's a quick take.

HARP is an Obama Administration plan, adopted and implemented by FHFA in 2009. It has produced about 900,000 re-finances, far less than projected. The Administration's potential influence over the FHFA is by appointment of the Director, with approval by Congress. Through a series of half steps, Ed DeMarco, appointed originally by Bush has risen to the top and appears irreplaceable. DeMarco would rival Peterson and Norquist as having the most power in Washington outside any given elected official.

The FHFA website gives the specifics of the revised rules regarding HARP. By the way, you can look up your loan there to determine if it is in fact guaranteed by one of the GSEs and if it was purchased prior to 2009 - two of the entrance requirements in qualifying for HARP - and a source of the smell sensed by fire bloggers. The program excludes a lot or worthy would-be refinancers. One of the headlines of this refi makeover is that there is now no limit on "how far underwater" one can be to still participate. Previously, the Loan-To-Value (LTV) had already been raised to 125% - but there were only 72,000 refinanced loans with  LTVs over 105%.  (A property appraised at $100K with a $105K loan has an LTV of 105%)

The 99% preamble to a Declaration of Action

Here is a quick take on a 99% Preamble.

 

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