MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
The protest movement in Egypt has suddenly alerted many Westerners to the existence of the Muslim Brotherhood, a newish group who did not emerge in Egypt until almost the end of the Coolidge Administration. Furthermore, this fast-breaking development has alerted Western pundits, bloggers, and politicians to the urgent need to say something about the Muslim Brotherhood. And so they've starting intoning their opinions on every news medium known to man, telling us how the Muslim Brotherhood are indistinguishable from al-Qaeda, or else a group of sedate and peace-loving moderates, or else again that they "are" some other, scarier Islamist group that formed outside Egypt over the last 82 or 83 years, because that non-Egyptian group originally looked to the Brotherhood for inspiration. (By this standard, the United States "is" Liberia.)
The big question almost everybody winds up with, explicitly or implicitly, is how much we should allow the Muslim Brotherhood to participate in Egyptian politics. When you're asking yourself the same policy questions that Hosni Mubarak spent the last thirty years asking, you're not paying attention to events.
Let me lay my own cards on the table: I have spent about a week and a half of my life thinking about the Muslim Brotherhood, more than twenty years ago, and haven't thought much about them since. I won't pretend that they got my undivided attention back then. I recall writing a brief undergraduate paper about a manifesto by their founder, Hasan al-Banna, but I couldn't for the life of me tell you anything that that paper said and for most of the last two decades I've been referring to al-Banna as "Hasan al-Basra," a mistake like mixing up Martin Luther and Martin Luther King but worse. (I was off by about twelve hundred years). All of which is to say that I don't know jack about the Muslim Brotherhood. I would be embarrassed to pretend that I did.
On the other hand, it's painfully obvious that many of the people opining authoritatively about the Brotherhood haven't spent even one day in their lives thinking about the Brotherhood, and that they haven't actually started now. They're just repeating whatever they've been told recently, using their most serenely confident voices, and they aren't embarrassed in the least.
I don't know what role the Muslim Brotherhood will play in post-Mubarak Egypt. No one pontificating about it on cable has any idea, either. Maybe they'll stay committed to a civil process, as they seemed committed to peaceful participation in the last parliamentary elections. Maybe they won't. Maybe they'll be content to participate as one party among many. Maybe they will demand some "guardianship" role that puts them in charge for good. Maybe their moderate wing will predominate, and maybe their radical wing. I don't know, and I don't believe the Muslim Brotherhood themselves know yet how things are going to shake out.
But here's my question: if the Muslim Brotherhood ends up operating as a peaceful political party, content to win and lose like other Egyptian political parties and take its turns in and out of power, what's the problem? If an Islamist party can actually live by the rules of peace and democracy, how is that not a victory for Western values?
Don't get me wrong. I don't agree with the Muslim Brotherhood on almost anything. I don't believe any country should be governed by strict religious laws, I don't share the Brotherhood's particular religion, and I'm so far from being anti-Western that I'm an actual Westerner. If the Muslim Brotherhood participates in free and fair elections, I will root for them to lose every time. I think they are backward and wrong-headed in many different ways. I think most of their policies would stink. But that doesn't make them any different from other parties, in other countries, that I would also like to see lose. The fact that I, or you, or most North Americans who've heard of the Muslim Brotherhood want them to lose elections does not mean that they should not be permitted to run in the first place.
Some liberal and progressive bloggers like to deride Christianist voters and politicians as the "American Taliban," which is not quite fair. The Taliban is not only an Islamist party, but an authoritarian Islamist party that has no use for genuine elections and wants to impose its version of Shari'a law by force. The only people in America who could be justly compared to the Taliban are the people who commit or support violence against abortion clinics and against doctors like George Tiller. But if the Muslim Brotherhood becomes a non-violent party focused on promoting their version of Islamic values through legal and democratic means, they would become something very much like the American Christianist movement. In fact, they'd probably share some policy goals with American Christianists.
Some people run for office in the United States on a platform that involves banning the teaching of evolution in the schools, or limiting access to contraception. I absolutely oppose those candidates and their platform. But there is no question that they should be allowed to run for office. If someone runs for the House or Senate promising to help restore America as a "Christian nation," they have every right to do so, even if I happen to think they're wrong about everything. Banning Christianists from politics would obviously be the wrong thing to do.
Neither would the Muslim Brotherhood, if they submit to a democratic process, be meaningfully different from the various ultra-orthodox religious parties in the Israeli Knesset, who are explicitly dedicated to promoting their religious teachings through legislation (and who have a disproportionate influence on Israeli politics because of Israel's proportional-representation system). Those parties are every bit as stiff-necked, confrontational, and anti-modern as any parliamentary Muslim Brotherhood faction could be. Would a Muslim Brotherhood-led coalition complicate the Israeli/Palestinian peace process? Probably. But on the other hand, it's not like Shas has been especially constructive.
Now, if the Muslim Brotherhood decides to only participate in the democratic process when it wins, or if it decides to rig things so it never loses, then all of the above is moot. (Also, if the Brotherhood splits into two groups, one of them playing by the rules and one not, the above is true for the group that lives by the rules and not for the group that doesn't.) Any party that won't play by the rules of civil society has to go. The crucial thing is that the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt submit to the same political process that every other Egyptian party does, in the same way that the American religious right and the Israeli religious right and the Hindu religious right do. People have the right to vote for these parties as long as they also have the right and the opportunity to vote against them.
The important distinction to make is between Islamism and jihadism. The first is a political ideology that I despise and oppose, but others might choose to support. The second is a violent version of Islamism, that relies on force and permits no choice by the people and is no therefore no different from any other flavor of authoritarian rule. Jihadism can never be acceptable, because it refuses to accept any viewpoint but its own. But if the United States decides that peaceful and democratic Islamist parties are still unacceptable to us, Egyptians will perceive that as a simple expression of bias against Islam. And the Egyptians will have a good case.
If the Muslim Brotherhood can manage to reinvent itself as a conventional right-wing political party but we try to prevent it from doing so, we will be the enemies of democracy and our moral case for opposing international jihadism will be undermined. We, and not the jihadists, would be the ones refusing to let the people choose for themselves. It would be stupid in any case: the Muslim Brotherhood has been banned in Egypt more or less since it was founded, and it hasn't gone away. Banning it again won't make it go away, or make it less popular. If we try to have it banned, or lean on third parties in Egypt to ban it for us, we will be playing the same losing game that Mubarak has just lost. I'd like to see the Muslim Brotherhood shut out of power forever. But the only people who can do that are the Egyptian voters themselves.
Comments
Great post. One of the best I've seen on the topic - anywhere.
Although, I don't know enough about their politics to take such a "I hate everything they stand for" position. It's not based on much real knowledge, but I don't view them simply as a version of the Taliban that has agreed to join a political process. Are they really that retrograde?
by kgb999 on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:36pm
Thanks, kgb. Maybe hating everything they stand for is too strong. "Fundamental disagreement" would be better. And as I said, I don't know enough about them to speak in any detail.
Their basic philosophical orientation is anti-Western, and they believe Q'uranic law should dominate public life. The have developed a strong moderate wing over their last eight decades as an illegal opposition movement, and one of the things they have done is woven themselves into Egyptian civic life.
Let's put it this way: the Islamist right is a spectrum, like the Christianist right. Franklin Graham and James Dobson have some things in common but are not politically identical. Same deal with the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups. Trying to figure out who they are by comparing them to similar groups is no substitute for paying attention to what they actually say and do. They are themselves.
by Doctor Cleveland on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 10:50pm
The Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood have already shown signs of disagreement with the Iranian mullahs as the latter have tried to coopt them as friendlies in their plan to advance theocracies for the ummah, and come out against that style of theocracy, see my thread on that here:
http://dagblog.com/link/muslim-brotherhood-rejects-khamenei-calls-iran-s...
Actually, from what I've read, the real worries of the Obama administration and European allies are along the lines of just figuring out what happens if they end up with some power input into the situation with Hamas in Palestine, that affects that situation, and not about the type of fears you are discussing.
I don't think they think of them as a serious danger or anything like that and don't care about influencing the amount of sharia in Egypt etc. Fox News may be talking about that but I don't see anyone taken seriously in foreign policy circles discussing such things, they are way beyond that. It is more about trying to figure out what it would do geopolitically for the whole area if they do get any signifcant power influencing the foreign policy of a new government, again, as far as things like Palestine is concerned. (For example, I think I saw a couple of reports of more famous Brotherhood being escapees from that prison breakout, that they gone through the tunnels into Palestine--whether that is true or not, that's the type of thing I am referring to.) But if the antipathy with Iranian powers continues, that's probably a good thing to our State Dept. on balance. But then it might intensify Sunni/Shia discord, a bad thing. Lots of "what ifs," but not regardingi internal affairs of Egypt--the demographics simply don't support fearing that.
In any case, it's getting clearer and clearer every day that the "revolution" continues in broadening its base while remaining very anti status quo, and that means not too sympathetic to old school Muslim Brotherhood which only ever had like 25% max support to begin with. Maybe some of the younger factions in the Brotherhood can come up with something more appealing to a broad base, but then it would be something different than those old fears anyways, and also introduce some factionalization that would decrease possible power. It's also apparent that Google Exec Wael Ghonim's interview being broadcast on TV there has convinced a lot more of the more conservative portion of the population that the state propaganda is not telling the truth, and those would include types that might be normally supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood but might now put more faith in new parties with more promise to move beyond old paradigms.
To go back to U.S. reaction, right now we have Hezbollah sharing the political majority in Lebanon and we're not freaking out or bombing or invading them, though State is clearly not happy about those developments. (And where's Fox News on that?) As long as any Muslim Brotherhood input in Egyptian government doesn't cause a great deal of instability, I think this is all much ado about nothing probable. Actually, they have been too far behind the eightball on this "revolution" to realistically easily get back to any major influence in the short term. In the long term, who knows, nobody knows that, that's why it's such a fascinating story.
by artappraiser on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:47pm
Yes, in other words, the US fears are focused on how the revolution affects the Israeli/Palestinian problem. But that's simply a specific case of not wanting the Egyptians to do what the Egyptian people want.
But the Egyptian revolution means that Egypt's Israel policy will be guided by popular sentiment, which is anti-Israel in any case. The question isn't the MB's role. The question is the average Egyptian who hates the degree to which Egypt has cooperated with Israel.
The silver lining may be that some of the Israeli parties stop focusing on getting another two or three blocks at a time in East Jerusalem and focus instead on a peace deal that will settle things. The Egypt-Israel peace accord has been a good thing, on its own terms, but its also distorted the strategic approach to solving the Palestinian problem. The Israeli right wing has felt no pressure to make a deal because their eastern border was artficially secure, and they counted on that never being a threat. So the fighting over very small territorial advantages seemed to carry reward but no risk. Now the benefit of building a few more acres of settlements will be balanced against the drive to remain on good terms with Arabic neighbors.
by Doctor Cleveland on Wed, 02/09/2011 - 11:52pm
A well-reasoned post, doctor. And your comments aren't half-bad, either. The Brotherhood declares its aims in today's New York Times. You can't get more mainstream than the NYT oped page, can you?:
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/10/opinion/10erian.html
I think you have it exactly right above. The State Dept. and White House, inundated with panicky squeals out of Tel Aviv, began a few days back to extemporize about the need for a transition to start now -- or yesterday, as Robert Gibbs said. (Leaked cables show Omar Suleiman was Israel's first choice to succeed Mubarak anyway.) But outside forces cannot freeze a revolution at the point they desire. Not when the fight is between the yearning of a people to breathe free and an aging, corrupt kleptocracy that doesn't have a clue about how to actually compromise.
Any new government will include the Muslim Brotherhood. But as you note, it isn't just the MB that rejects the current regime's toadying to Israel and the U.S.; the vast majority of Egyptians find it humiliating, too. So yes, I would expect an end to the joint trade and travel embargo on Gaza, and real pressure on the Palestinian Authority to reconcile with Hamas. As you suggest, that's a good thing, because U.S. "pressure" on Israel to negotiate has produced zero results.
Comparisons have been made to Lebanon, where Hezbollah recently asserted the legislative influence commensurate with it speaking for 40% of Lebanon's population. Except in the minds of a few pundits, the sky didn't fall.
by acanuck on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 2:45am
I just saw the Times Op-Ed this morning. Even if the MB doesn't end up sticking by all of this in the long run, the very fact that they are trying to explain themselve in the New York Times suggests that they're looking for reasonable dialogue with the West. (Hezbollah doesn't have anything to say to the Times.)
by Doctor Cleveland on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 11:26am
I must admit, as a feminist interested in the rights of those who hold up half the sky on this globe, that I am automatically prejudiced and suspicious in the first place of organization that calls itself a brotherhood (silly but true,) much less one that as a basic principle wants to see government promote "religion in public life" via politcal power. My feminism is not something I toss away when it comes to politics, borders, wars, etc. (I.E., one can be against the U.S. military intervening in Afghanistan and still think most Taliban and Wahhabis are backward scum practicing a sick distortion of Islam that shouldn't be shown tolerance by most of the world of the 21st century unless they change their attitudes towards females.)
In the same vein, I always wonder whether western liberals who seem to want to show excess enthusiasm and support for organizations like the Muslim Brotherhood would defend young Christian Dominionist activists working to try to influence African states as fervently.
Beyond making sure that people understand that the Muslim Brotherhood is probably not much of a danger to the interests of the U.S.A., I really don't see any reason for liberals to fervently defend them as some seem to want to do. Should they want our approval, let them prove themselves to us. I certainly am not going to write any paens to them based on that op-ed. A little too much suggestion of Bill O'Reilly War on Christmas for me here:
Fancy words, show the Egyptian sisters the money.
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 6:32pm
In a spirit related to the old nostrum, "don't do or say anything you wouldn't want to see in the New York Times," I would like to point out these two sentences from Mr. El-Errian's op-ed:
It will be interesting to see if they keep their word now that they've put it in the New York Times.
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 5:59pm
I think too that having the Mubarak government forced out is like number two o rmaybe three to having the House of Saud kicked out. That being number one.
by cmaukonen on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 12:05am
Just an FYI, my bold highlighting:
Also this which just came out, and recommended by Issandr at arabist.net::
And this, also recommended by Issandr of Arabist.net, on his twitter feed:
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 2:46am
Thanks for the links, appraiser. My understanding is that the Brotherhood -- unlike the sclerotic National Democratic Party -- has a very active and dynamic youth wing. And that it is young MB members who took part in the earliest protests on their own initiative, gradually dragging the old guard into full support of the revolution. Those young Islamists share much in common with their secular comrades, especially now that they have bled together, and they are the next leaders of the party.
by acanuck on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 3:08am
Great post. My own view is that trying to grasp the 'essence' of the Muslim Brotherhood is a misguided enterprise. Much of what it ultimately will reveal itself to be depends on how the current uprising unfolds, and how outside forces influence it. Most importantly how the US positions itself in regard to it. If the US continues to try to prop up Mubarak/Suleiman, the more Jihadist elements of the Muslim Brotherhood will begin to gain the upper hand in its internal struggles with the factions more deferential to democratic process. If the military regime doesn't fall, it will demonstrate not only to the MB, but to all Egyptians, that the US won't permit a peaceful transfer of power, and that full-blown violent revolution - à la Khomeini - is the only option.
I.e. it is to some extent up to the US whether they end up fanning the flames of violent jihadism, whether or not, that is, the Muslim Brotherhood morphs into a more dangerous Islamist revolutionary force or whether it settles down as a domesticated democratic party like Erdogan's APK in Turkey or Wahid's PKB in Indonesia (both parties taking power and promoting their moderate brand of Islamic values within the bounds of a secular constitution).
by Obey on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 8:01am
I rec this comment highly, and your diary, Doc. Are you all aware that this is (maybe) afoot?
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/41506482/ns/world_news-mideastn_africa/
The Guardian is more cautious:
Reports that Mubarak will stand down tonight
• Conflicting rumours he will hand power to VP or army
• Army 'says it will meet all protesters' demands'
• Thousands protest for 17th day in Tahrir Square
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/blog/2011/feb/10/egypt-middleeast?commentpage=last#block-18
Live events: http://www.youtube.com/aljazeeraenglish
Plus: the Army has been arresting and reportedly torturing protestors picked up on side streets away fron Tahrir Square.
by we are stardust on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 11:56am
Thanks for the rec, and thanks for the links.
Good to see you back here Stardust!
by Obey on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 12:26pm
Good to see you, too, Obey. I confess I just do the occasional drive-by link-dropping. Pretty exciting times in the ME. I'm glued to coverage; if this can work even half-well, it's monumental.
I saw a grey fox climb a tree the other night outside the bedroom door. Tiny little thing, but um...awesome to have seen. ;o) Hope the revolution straightens up a bit so I can write it up! Be well.
by we are stardust on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 1:44pm
The comparison of the religious parties in Israel to the Muslim Brotherhood is a outrageous. In Israel they want to preserve the Jewish nature of the state. They have never been involved in terror, war or oppression. They have never advocated violence.
The Muslim Brotherhood has a long history of violence, is affiliated with other radical Islamic groups. If it is changing is debating, but comparing peace loving religious Jews to a group that advances is cause with violence is terrible
by Terrible Comparison (not verified) on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 11:17am
What I wrote was this:
I think my point was clear; this comparison only applies as long as the MB are peaceful and submit to civil
Now, if by "long history of violence" you mean from before 1948, I think the distinction you're trying to draw gets shaky.But let me give you that one.
Where I think we disagree on principle is the idea that if the MB can be disqualified from political life if the group has ever been violent, no matter how peaceful they are or ho peaceful they become. That is nonsense. You can't permanently keep a party away from the bargaining table because of what an earlier version of the party did before 1988 or 1968 or 1948. And if you do, you are actually telling that party to go back to violence. If you're not allowed to run candidates for office because things that happened in 1953 mean your party is "violent," then you might as well stop recruiting candidates and start recruiting gunmen.
If the Muslim Brotherhood reinvents itself as a peaceful democratic party that wants to preserve the Islamic nature of the Egyptian state, I'd say my comparison isn't so outrageous.
by Doctor Cleveland on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 11:35am
Very well written. Too many people just spout opinions that validate their world view. Sometimes it is best to sit back and just listen instead of passing judgement. It gets tiring hearing people speak with certainty about something they knew nothing about when they woke up in the morning but now after a couple of hours of listening to the tv or the radio they are an "expert" on a subject. This practice seems disrespectful to the people who have spent years studying, researching, and directly experiencing things that allow them to truly have an authoritative voice on a subject.
by emerson on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 12:57pm
by artappraiser on Thu, 02/10/2011 - 7:21pm