MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
The uptick in homicides seen in many U.S. cities during the Covid-19 crisis has left criminologists with several possible explanations — and lots of new questions.
By Jake Blumgart @ Bloomberg City Lab, March 19
[....] What’s not clear is why violence in so many American communities surged in 2020. Comparable previous calamities did not seem to trigger similar spikes. The flu pandemic of 1918, the Great Depression and the Great Recession were all associated with declines in violence. Academic criminologists tend to be a scrupulously modest bunch, especially in the short term, and few make strong cases for any single reason for year-to-year fluctuations in crime. There isn’t even a widely accepted reason for the great violent crime decline of recent decades, when the murder rate fell by half between its early 1990s peak and 2014.
One popular explanation for 2020’s violence places some causation on the protests for racial justice that erupted in many U.S. cities in June, after the police killing of George Floyd, which further delegitimized law enforcement in many communities. The so-called Ferguson Effect suggests that protest activity either results in fewer calls to the police to report crime and moderate disputes, or in police pulling back from their street-level duties. But the fact that several other categories of crime went down in 2020 complicates that narrative, as CityLab’s Brentin Mock wrote in September. And NCCCJ commission director and study co-author Thomas Abt has instead cited a “perfect storm” of factors driving the 2020 homicide trend, rather than one major trigger.
Bloomberg CityLab talked to a variety of experts and practitioners about what drove the rising homicide rates of the past year — and 2021 so far as well. They offered multiple observations and possible theories — including some surprisingly counterintuitive ones — for the deadly turn that 2020 took [....]
further excerpt in first comment
Comments
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/19/2021 - 12:49pm
We can make neighborhoods safer just by changing the physical environment
[moved from individual entry which was deleted}
Criminy, look this graph; JUST DO IT! Even if this study is off by a mile. (And not with one of those scraggly community gardens either, make them look nice, somebody's gotta direct! Clearly, it's the landscaping stoopids. You make it look like someone is in charge and watching that things stay nice.)
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/19/2021 - 1:06pm
Compare with anecodotal news from London:
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/19/2021 - 7:12pm
Chicago mass shooting: Video captures moment gunman opened fire inside Park Manor warehouse party
By Alexis McAdams @ ABC7chicago.comMonday, March 15, 2021 11:17PM
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 12:45am
White Shooter Pleads Guilty to Hate Crime Charges for Murdering Black Customers at Grocery Store
By ALBERTO LUPERON @ LawandCrime.com, Mar 18th, 2021, 6:28 pm
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 1:07am
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 1:12am
story posted 11 mins. ago
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 1:38pm
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 2:41pm
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 2:58pm
Not violent, but still-Chicago
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 5:36pm
Breaking ACTIVE SHOOTING AT HOUSTON GALLERIA MALL??? OR JUST HYSTERICAL PANIC spread by social media?
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 6:10pm
pick a city, and you'll find a shooting going on, and the weekend has just started
more on Dallas nightclub early Sat. cited previously:
details on Indianapolis previous
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/20/2021 - 9:35pm
by artappraiser on Mon, 03/22/2021 - 8:03pm
by artappraiser on Tue, 03/23/2021 - 10:15pm
Homicide Suspect Escapes Psychiatric Institute in Northwest DC Friday night
By Matthew Stabley • Published 27 mins ago , NBCwashington.com, video at link
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/26/2021 - 11:56pm
more than 11 yrs. waiting for justice:
by artappraiser on Sat, 03/27/2021 - 1:02am
People question the wording of a CNN article which reports the death of Uber Eats driver Mohammad Anwar after he was allegedly assaulted and carjacked by two teenage girls as an 'accident' (especially because the girls were black)
that's the first 3 that I got at the "trending link"...continues and may be different when you access
by artappraiser on Sun, 03/28/2021 - 4:04am
by artappraiser on Sun, 03/28/2021 - 4:25am
To be fair, we usually talk about car wrecks as "accidents", even if the driver was drunk out his mind, speeding, whatever.
But yes, the overall tone seems "the girls had a bad day", one of the new euphemisms for our age.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 03/28/2021 - 6:14am
DC carjackings up 350%; perpetrators often teens:
by artappraiser on Sun, 03/28/2021 - 12:36pm
I agree, but would add if they don't start solving it, the national party will suffer by association:
by artappraiser on Sun, 03/28/2021 - 12:39pm
for chart and link, shootings in NYC last year, by race (whole thread posted elsewhere):
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/31/2021 - 12:40am
^ and people who care that this is happening are the racists? Nonsense, through the looking glass nonsense! . Integrated police force the main enemy? Hogwash! Denial is not a river in Egypt
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/31/2021 - 12:46am
Ugh, you resorted to *that* pun? Surely someone can teach you The Dozens in Bronxland, unless that's gone outta style. 5 star cringe alert.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 4:23am
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 1:27am
Rep. Katie Porter on the Orange County shooting:
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 2:06am
Axios, LATimes, NYTimes, Reuters, BBC World on Weds nite's Orange County mass shooting:
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 2:15am
I would just add this qualification to Veronica's deadly snark: the difference is one of the reasons why people chose to live in Orange County instead of a "blue" run city. And it might have to do with the way a lot of them vote, too.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 4:07am
to point! There was a horrific mass shooting in D.C.'s Congress Heights Weds, 2 dead, 3 injured, the gunman (or men!) still at large with $25,000 bounty on his head BUT the only place I find it reported is like "HotNewHipHop" and the U.S. version of UK's tabloid The Sun!!!
they got a frigging video report!!!
I can only conclude that such violence does not qualify as a "mass shooting" of interest to most media because it doesn't fit the narrative of massacre of innocents. That the type of people that are fans of HipHop and their families don't want attention to this, don't click on stories, and no one else cares either BECAUSE the message sent thru last summer and fall was heard loud and clear: we don't want no fucking law and order, we hate police, we ain't shooting whypipple, why would you all care, we'll handle this ourselves, kumbaya. none of your business, only certain black lives matter, we'll decide which ones.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 4:29am
ok also to point, here's a white anti-gun activist mom unwittingly basically saying that aloud with the phrases in places where people should be safe and the only high income country where normal means mass shootings
which means: places like blue inner cities don't want to be safe! They have other priorities. They and their spoiled young white anarchist and lefty pals don't want police! Prisons and jails neither.
It might even be racist to suggest that they would want these things, certainly they continue to send the message loud and clear that they prefer to handle this with like, social workers and/or privately held handguns to settle "disputes". The latter often magnified by glorifying "the life" of rap in the sub-culture. Best not for whypipple to even show they care, would be acting supremacist about choices.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 4:44am
Uh, it's not "blue run city" - it's white flight, which believe it or not happens outside Boston and Atlanta. Except it's not just white flight anymore:
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 4:31am
Huh? that was exactly my point! that people move to Orange County because it's NOT a blue city with high crime. Hence outrage and interest when there is a shooting there. It wasn't supposed to happen there! Hence the media attention. They give a fuck that's happening in blue cities, they don't chose to live in one, those people are nuts, they like shooting so much in blue cities that nobody bothers to report it anymore.
Seriously! This is the narrative! Everybody freaks about mass shootings in burbs. It's expected behavior in blue inner cities, a nothing burger. Same thing with the mass shooting in Chicago of 15, nobody paid attention, everybody talking about the shootings out at the massage parlors out in quiet on the highway. Same thing with mass shootings at the supermarket or the Walmart out on the highway, or the Hindu temple out in the burbs of Milwaukee for that mater...that's news! It's supposed to be safe.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 5:00am
You're believing your "blue" euphemism? It's not really about who's in town hall.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 4:58am
No I am criticizing activists for protesting against blue inner city governments. They did all last year. Name one red city that had much trouble, or even one with a more centrist government. The latter basically said: your protests are not welcome here, get the fuck out, we do law and order.
I'm serious about that too. I think there was a concerted effort by white leftist/anarchist to influence BLM protests along the lines of instigating revolution. Look at poor Ted Wheeler in Portland for an example, he was basically crucified day after day, or huge rallies of mostly white college kids yelling "shame shame shame Jacob" at the mayor of Minneapolis for basically doing his job correctly.
Yes, I have a bee in my bonnet and that is: BLM has been an EXTREMELY counterproductive movement, in many, many ways. Maybe even partly on purpose!
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 5:08am
Joe Biden dismissed them simply and well: the police need more money and manpower, not less. (And overall: more government, not less.) Trump and Barr loved every frigging protest, and the associated rioting and looting even more, because it was all in blue cities!
Edit to add: the Russian trolls can see it, how well lefty radical rhetoric against blue government works, why can't others?
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 5:16am
I'm ignorant as to which "red city" has a similar black high crime inner city dynamic to work with, so I don't know if the issue is coddling BLM types (we've agreed this has turned stupid) or simply the areas that have these issues will in general vote in Democrat administrations, but it's not like the red administrations are handling things any better, just not having to deal with these massive probs in less affected metropolises (due to self-selectuin, as in Orange County, or other method??)? Or am I wrong?
New York *has* had some red administrations, but afaik what Rudy did w broken windows and such was similar to initiatives elsewhere - so I don't see the real difference yet. But my knowledge is superficial, as much gut reaction as actual states/ names of cities/knowledge of conditions on the ground.
ETA: Chicago's probs weren't created by BLM, and their Rahm & other blue admins have used some pretty unconstitutional smashball policing techniques, not coddling, yet still probs persist. So how does that fit your "blue city" hypothesis?
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 5:16am
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 6:15am
THANK YOU! This is so excellent, the game she plays at the start
also this But that’s something we’ll talk more about later in the year—how things you do in high school can stay with you and affect your life later. that's something that specially a problem for poor kids in NYC and other big city tribal bubbles; they don't have cars, they don't get around like teens elsewhere might, don't see other lifestyles. Now social media makes for bubbles too, used to be they saw other lifestyles on tv, now they are even more isolated as to tribe they think their big high school is like the world is just because it's big. It's not, it's just da Bronx or Queens culture. New Yorkers that don't get out much are very like small town people that don't get out much! It's really just a collection of small towns. And here's the secret: the rest of the world is scary to them. (Drop them in a midwestern college town or like an art fair, they'd be scared to death! they don't know the behavior rules.)
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 5:13pm
this guy sounds smart too
except I would argue that he's wrong about parole and bail SIMPLY BECAUSE, if young guys that haven't been in trouble can't even handle the current situation, how the heck are guys that just got out supposed to? Stay in the house with grandma all day? No way. In this pandemic and economy, they need 24/7 oversight and direction, not a parole officer that talks to them once a month or whatever.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 5:24pm
More Midwest smart crime
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 6:37pm
that's Detroit, that's different.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 8:00pm
And Australia down under too?
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/04/02/sport/nathan-baggaley-australian-olym...
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/02/2021 - 5:33pm
wouldja lookit that, these four teens arrested for car burglaries Two suspects were identified as 18 year-old Donjuan Watson Jr. and 18 year-old Jalin Washington, both of San Francisco. The other two other suspects were identified as a 16 year-old male from San Francisco and a 16 year-old male from South San Francisco.
turned out to have three handguns in their car
would have thunk it! police shouldn't assume such things?
then there's this one
... the victim, a 31-year-old male was in the area of UN Plaza...with a friend and his co-worker when an unknown male stabbed him in the face without provocation...The suspect fled the scene on foot and is described as a black male, 30-40 years old, approximately 5’6” tall, medium build, and was last seen wearing a black jacket and black hat and was holding a knife....
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/01/2021 - 2:59am