Five Thirty Eight"s Senate and House forecasts

By artappraiser on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 5:21pm |

Here's the Senate link, I'll put the House report in the first comment

The model is also ... surprisingly (to me, anyway) bullish on Beto in Texas. It has Cruz favored, but it's a real race. It's bearish on Bredesen in Tennessee, by contrast, although that's obviously a real race too. https://t.co/RyBW14wi8D
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018

URL:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/

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House:

One other arcane forecasting note: Our model accounts for scandals based on @baseballot's scandal database, and we've now updated it to account for scandals from *previous* election cycles. Previously, it only accounted for *new* scandals. However (cont) https://t.co/sRTaNMQx1s
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 5:23pm

I too swear by 538 .Including as either stated or implied by them today

o elections get decided in September

o the current polls were taken in August

o even so its safe to predict democrats will win the popular vote in November by at least by 5%

o but to take over the House takes a number higher than that.

Which suggests to me , maybe by Columbus Day we'll know

by Flavius on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 11:55pm

If you're a voter in North Dakota, your vote is 26x more important in determining the fate of the Senate than the average American voter's. https://t.co/LUBG6Osgma pic.twitter.com/3xOhgi5LvI
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 5:26pm

I noted this analytic twitter thread about the election in general by the AP's "western political" reporter because it was "liked" by Alex Burns & Maggie Haberman of the NYT, whom I follow on twitter

Anti-Trump conservatives don't see it this way, but D voters thought Clinton was the compromise candidate who could attract conservatives to the center. Since that didn't work out, they're looking left instead. https://t.co/R2JtBfl5mo
— Nick Riccardi (@NickRiccardi) September 12, 2018

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 5:34pm

The thing is, Democrats have so much exposure that they're really playing whack-a-mole in the Senate. Fox came out with relatively good numbers for them in Missouri and Arizona. But! They have Heitkamp down in ND and Donnelly a tick behind in Indiana.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) September 12, 2018

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 6:28pm

@ Cook Political Report:

I'm skeptical that Obama's presence on the trail will make much of a difference. This election is all about one person: Donald J. Trump. No one can, or will, overshadow him. https://t.co/WdT1nE5SBN
— amy walter (@amyewalter) September 12, 2018

by artappraiser on Wed, 09/12/2018 - 7:11pm

It's a real thing and it's a mystery to me why I don't see more GOP campaigns claiming they are responsible for it and saying that the Dems will kill it, even tho Obama could claim ownership:

The shadow-unemployed are coming back to work. https://t.co/VlG38xIzxu
— Noah Smith (@Noahpinion) September 13, 2018

by artappraiser on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 7:57pm

The reluctance comes from shaking pom poms at the results of a crack high.
The economy received stimulus high in the market.
It doesn't get more anti-Keynes than that.

by moat on Thu, 09/13/2018 - 8:06pm

Dems betting on the bubble effect of tribalism, those GOP with wise counsel will try to work against that:

When you propagandise your voters so effectively they don’t actually votehttps://t.co/hmj8aHeRmt pic.twitter.com/R1NL0lKmfd
— wessie du toit (@wessiedutoit) September 15, 2018

by artappraiser on Sat, 09/15/2018 - 2:05pm

p.s. right after in my feed, indications of no bottom of bubble delusions for this tribe?

Defending Trump's Puerto Rico conspiracies prove yet again that there is no bottom for his enablers https://t.co/HUC4whUmqf
— Media Matters (@mmfa) September 15, 2018

by artappraiser on Sat, 09/15/2018 - 2:08pm

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Read the article at https://twitter.com/HannaNotte/status/1763116222256701787

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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Read the article at https://ht.usembassy.gov/security-alert-u-s-embassy-port-au-prince-haiti-december-25-2023/

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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Read the article at https://x.com/_hudsonc/status/1732891968709992511?s=20

2 comments

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submitted by PeraclesPlease 1 year ago

Read the article at

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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submitted by artappraiser 1 year ago

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