MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Look at their color coded map at the link.
Comments
Their map has shockingly similar appearance to one of those red vs. blue maps of the U.S. Joe is blue, and the map is strikingly blue, nearly solid in most of the state. Bernie is purple and he got only big urban areas and select others.
Note Bloomberg's dark green has injected itself into two Bernie areas-interesting! Also over there on the right between Dallas and Houston, is that a light green Buttigieg I spy?What the heck is that about?
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:04am
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:22am
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:25am
I see some Never Trumpers giving Nate Silver some pats on the back by retweeting this prediction thread of his from 20 hrs. ago:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 3:11am
Er, any way to walk back those comments about Castro and AIPAC?
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 3:19am
now here's a Newsmax top infuencer, a black Republican guy with radio show, 17 mins. ago
tweeting the dementia thing against Joe!!! As I saw these Never Trumpers gleefully noting Tuesday: DO YOU REALLY WANT TO GO THERE?! Seriously? A presidential campaign about who has the most dementia?
Who is suggesting these talking points? Wack!
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:04am
Let's note the point of contention:
So let's debate which white boy talked about passing the torch to another white boy generation.
Really, with such a stunning unforgettable line, no one's ever said that before,
I wonder how Joe ever forgot. Wait, what was the line again? "Passing the torch".
Poetic. Strong. A bit iffy on the torches thing since Charlottesville, but maybe we give it a pass...
Yes, I've been seeing the "Joe's senile" meme popping up for a bit now.
They'll rerun their Hillary playbook as much as possible, worked so well...
Passing the torch, um....
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:51am
great pix, I laughed
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 5:09am
Kudos where due:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:26am
more praise for the awesomeness of Biden's feat:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:57am
Politico on Liz:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:32am
She finished 3rd despite the billionaire and the rush to stent the bleeding with a safe old white dude.
She should be proud.
She may find herself as VP (if not Kamala Harris?), so while could be better, could be okay, a point of influence
(and with old people, one tick away means a lot)
And she came prepared - Joe just waltzed on and it was handed to him. Would we were all so lucky.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:56am
Here's a current just the facts summary with list from CNN. Bloomberg did win one: American Samoa, HAH, too funny! Only CA and ME have not been called:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:50am
Let's be careful making fun of Samoa - they've achieved moments of greatness...
See Lenny Fali, aka the "Polynesian Panzer"...
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 5:08am
An AOC-style lefty primary of old guard Dem Cuellar failed:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:28am
For those who like this sort of thing, here's your skin-color chart for Texas:
I like to harp on the point that I'd like to know who choses the racial I.D. on these exit polls: the pollster or the respondent? Even if you go by woke news alone, racial I.D.'s are very suspect now. I.E. many people in SW have very specific desires as to being labelled correctly, and Hispanic is one label that is increasingly rare by choice, more and more used only by those who have a lot of actual Spanish heritage, as in: from Spain.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:39am
and even more, Texan Democrats by skin color also broken down by age:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 8:29am
Jeff Sessions is stuck in a runoff for Alabama Senate primary and Trump is rubbing it in:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:43am
Rick Wilson, most recently author of "Running against the Devil...how to save Democrats from themselves"
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:53am
Interesting thread here with Bernie bro "Brent" reacting to loss of Texas. I see it as a contemporary millennial version of depressed Clean Gene supporter, Nov. 1972. Where he says The views of our elders are very out ot touch with ours. I'd just like to say: okay, you think older people don't get the urgency of it, bankruptcy from student debt and global warming et. al. looming, but maybe just try imagining being forced to get on a plane tomorrow and have to start shooting at Vietnamese with high chances of coming home in a body bag. And then living through it and seeing that Nixon really did end the war and the draft really did end. We get it Brent. We just think you haven't learned yet what doesn't work to fix it; been there, done that. Sorry it sounds like clueless old folks to you.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 8:35am
Comes to mind that we can't get Brent and his pals any of the fixes he wants if the world economy is in depression because the U.S. elected another iconoclast in the midst of a pandemic. "They" like him, they really like him: Futures jump after Biden's Super Tuesday sweep. Also comes to mind that many millennials blamed Obama for not delivering on revolutionary change they expected from him when he fucking had to help save the world from a depression in 2009 on.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 8:47am
I think most people are confused when we started leaving Vietnam and how quick. Some "progressive" was proclaiming Nixon *extended* the war a year to help his re-election, which is a major exercise in delusion - wars aren't easy to manage, much less microtune.
And so it also misses one of the major sources of Nixon's popularity - he *did* end the war fairly quickly while looking responsible. The generations that fought D-Day and North Africa and Korea from a tiny toehold to stalemate wouldn't be thrilled to see us just abandon SE Asia to the Communists without trying.
The level of anti-capitalism and foolish 60s socialist formulas damages the 2020 effort to actually responsibly address structural issues with our markets and corporate ability to stack the deck. Gore made the mistake of thinking he could turn the clock back on the dot com revolution and both be an oldstyle social populist and champion the internet.
But if Biden wins, his success in office will come from surrounding himself wilith people more woke and savvy than he. Perhaps *some# reaching across the aisle will work, but mostly it's been an exercise in begging for abuse. But just as the woke activists rail against the free trade that lifted a couple billion boats, their capitalist targets are often the engines they need for social programs. Nuclear *energy* is great, clean,few emissions. It's the fuel that's the problem, both it's explosiveness and ability to melt down, and the difficulty if getting rid of it once used. This is a kind of metaphor - solutions don't come without related problems.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 9:19am
two all in for quitting with the dissing of voters as clueless hapless idiot followers of what the Dem establishment wants:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 8:33am
supporting point:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:16am
@ Biden's victory event:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 8:51am
Has a savior complex,I think he really was just there for that, "in case".
Edit to add, he endorsed Biden:
And it's hard to argue he did it as part of the Dem machine.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:19am
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:13am
I didn't expect to feel so depressed this morning. It's not that I dislike Biden or think he won't be able to beat Trump (though I do worry...). It's that, at least for a few months, it seemed as if the Democratic Party might rouse from its long slumber and move forward in some new direction. Maybe Bernie's revolution or Warren's structural change or even Buttigieg's millennial perspective. But alas, the voters seem to prefer the sheltering embrace of old-fashioned Uncle Joe, who promises to return us to the days of yore, record players and all.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:32am
Just random thoughts inspired by your comment.
It's not nostalgia, many not ready for "socialism" proudly proclaimed as such. They can take a lot of it if it's not labeled as such.
Much as anti-immigration people claim different, immigrants don't come here for the socialism, they come for the capitalism.
Don't forget Trump still has a high forties approval rating and they are not all fans of his but fans of his economy.
People want the divisiveness to stop, would one get that from a proudly socialist Bernie? Every district in this country is not like AOC's, far from it.
I think Warren got branded too lefty in an attempt to win over Bernie followers and couldn't break out of that else we would be seeing her vision still strongly in the mix.
Mayor Pete, Andrew Yang were more popular visions that were capitalist but decided to fall on their sword to get some joementum going.
Did you like the radical change the independent minded Donald J. Trump brought? I think not.
People have enough radical change in their lives right now, all of us!
Like PP just pointed out--and I agree--if Joe wins and seeds his admin with young wokes, more change will happen than with Bernie at the top.
The coattails affect of Joe at top could be enormous downticket as more swings will be amenable to voting blue downticket with a moderate at the top.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 11:30am
I didn't mean "change" in the broad sense or even political change. I was lamenting the stasis of the Democratic Party. Whether we like it or not, the world has changed. The GOP is adapting to these changes (in a very dangerous way). Meanwhile, the Democratic Party remains stuck in its ways.
I don't know whether Bernie has the right answer or if Pete is an empty suit. Warren was my favorite, but I don't know if she could pull it off either. Yet all these folks at least represented a new direction for the party. Biden emphatically does not. His whole campaign, his whole worldview, is characterized by continuation (or perhaps restoration) of an obsolete institution.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 11:57am
Democratic voters don't seem to be in the mood for revolution. They appear to want a return to normal rather than burning everything down.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 12:11pm
The GOP is adapting to these changes (in a very dangerous way)
I disagree, they got nothing, they haven't changed, all that has happened is they are being held hostage by Trump and haven't a clue what to do about that. They did not want to be the populist isolationist party, they wanted to be the globalist investor party. They're losing their loyalists every day and they got a bunch of yahoos instead. Who even says anymore "I am a loyal Republican voter"? They don't because no one has a clue what that might mean. There is a Trump party which is about 1/3 of the electorate, and that is the 1/3 conservatives who once were the Republican base. Without him, they're nothing, especially after they sold out to his every narcissistic wish.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 12:16pm
The yahoos invaded the GOP long before 2016. Who do you think nominated Trump (and tossed Jeb on his ear)? And how did those yahoos get into the party in the first place? Republican leaders invited them of course--even courted them--in order to grow their party. The fact that some Republicans now look in horror at the monster they created does not negate the fact that the party has radically evolved in a way that has made it more powerful.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 1:35pm
I'm cautiously optimistic. I feel we dodged a bullet.
We can't compete as the party of resentment, and who would want to?
Biden may be just the idiot we need.
We may not need a Teddy Roosevelt crusader, an FDR master planner.
Maybe we just need someone to pay the bills, attend to the funerals,
get the kids to the doctor, keep them out of traffic...
Do we need all the ideas to come out of the White House?
Things like AI, gene splicing, new energy... they're largely outside of government.
Marriott didn't design the next big thing in hotels - a dumb startup named AirBNB did.
Liz Warren trying to be Bernie Sanders doesn't quite work.
Liz Warren being Liz Warren does - we need systemic checks & optimizations,
not a whole new economic system.
But someone who does it while believing in the system, not trying to gut it or hijack it.
We need better dispersed distribution, not a new massive point of control.
The distributed model of blockchain & cryptocurrencies isn't bad, except still too easy to rig and take over.
(see N. Korean hacks, Russian hacks....)
Think of cloud computing or other nimble services - stuff that's easier to ramp up & down.
Apply it where it needs to be, not more one-size-fits all.
But still, the Dems are the ones to drive this - they like innovation & customer service.
Republicans like low hanging fruit, skimming the profits, downsizing that cuts into performance.
Etc., etc. will think/sleep on it more.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 1:01pm
I don't know if Bernie Sanders (or Warren or Buttigieg) understands how to rebuild the Democratic Party, but I am quite certain that Joe Biden does not. That's the source of my sadness, the end of possibility.
You have a point that reform doesn't have to start at the top. But party leaders at least need to be willing to fertilize grassroots innovators instead crushing them. Republicans held their fire-breathing rebels at arms length, but they were happy to let them run amok on the conservative airways and gin up votes. Democrats just want their own rebels--think AOC--to shut up and sit down.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 1:47pm
I was thinking build it up from under Biden. And AOC remains alright. The rest of the squad, who knows.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:56pm
PP is overly optimistic. Biden will pick a moderate to conservative democrat as vp, just like Hillary did. If elected he will fill his administration with moderates. Oh they'll be younger than him, he has no choice given how old he is. But there will be no new way forward, no real change, no innovative policy ideas. And there will be no cooperation from republicans in congress.
by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 12:02pm
Yes
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 1:48pm
How do you know for sure that the Republicans will still have the same total control of the Senate?
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:04pm
p.s. Cavaet: I do think it behooves to always keep in mind that Trump will still be out there even if not president, riling the fans, until he dies.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:15pm
and
Miller is not just Joe Schmo, is MSNBC Justice & Security Analyst. Recovering flack from DOJ, the Senate, and too many campaigns to count.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:19pm
p.p.s. sorry thoughts not put together: I want to repeat what I said elswhere: this is reason I find it encouraging that a moderate might be at the top of the ticket. That will encourage swing voters and swing districts to go for the moderate Dems running against Trump's GOP. This guy won, Moe Davis won (just noted downthread) because the Dem voters in these kind of districts know what it's going to take, they know what their more conservative neighbors are like, they hear the shit quoted to them from Fox News. A Bernie type at the top would be death, might as well not try to get any other Dem elected to replace current GOP. Because the propaganda about "what they are going to do to this country" would resound.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:26pm
I don't but even in the minority they have tremendous power and democrats will need their cooperation. Unless democrats end the filibuster which Warren supported and Biden will not. The last gun control bill got 53 votes in the senate. It wasn't radical, no assault weapon ban. It only contained some basic controls that had overwhelming support in the country even among republicans. It failed because of the filibuster. I could google up at least a dozen more laws that got a majority vote but failed because of the filibuster.
by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:29pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 11:12am
Interesting choice of stats, especially if you keep in mind that these are the Dem voters in each state and not the whole electorate:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 11:36am
Bernie's immediately trying to rebrand as Obama-certified safe, not radical. You can be assured that the value of your IRA won't crash and that you won't be required to share your house with others like in that scene in Dr. Zhivago when he comes home after the revolution:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 11:57am
p.s. there's a doctored tape alert out on Bernie's Obama ad:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 12:58pm
David Frum:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 12:35pm
Turnout numbers don't show any proof that Bernie has captured the desires and needs of a whole generation, many younger people just didn't show up at all. Like Trump, what he has is ardent fans, and the fans happen to include a lot of young people but are not necessarily representative of the generation:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 12:46pm
Actually we shouldn't be running against Trump - we're just enhancing his power.
We need to get out of this hypnotized situation, take control again.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 1:02pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 1:28pm
Col. Morris Davis, ret. JAG, Air Force, who resigned in protest as Guantanamo Chief Prosecutor in 2007, and has been a vehement anti-Trumper on twitter, won the Dem. primary for U.S. Rep North Carolina 11. He's been an appointed judge but is a first time politician:
I believe he had two rivals in the race, not sure.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:02pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 2:42pm
I like this Pete supporter's comments for an explanation of part of the zeitgeist, click on it for the full text
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 3:40pm
seeee! this is inspirational for those thinking of running for Senate in tough places. They weren't gonna even try if there was gonna be a "socialist" or any kind of "revolution" at the top of ticket::
There's not a lot of Bernie bros in Montana, methinks.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 3:51pm
I understand all you're saying. I've never been a Sanders supporter. But why did the moderates have to pick Biden? I can't go there.
by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 3:59pm
I don't think "they" did if you mean the powers that be. I think the voters just did. Look again at the Texas map on top this thread. Pete and Amy dropped out because they have pollsters that told them that was what was going on. They didn't want to lessen his percentage and end up with nothing much anyways. You and I aren't a typical voter. We live in a democracy, we have to accept that. It is what it is.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:04pm
speaking of Amy, she's a uniter not a divider, going back to the Senate, could use all the advocacy for certain things that money can buy:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:07pm
By they I meant the moderate voters. Just as when I say why did they have to pick Sanders over Warren I mean the liberal voters
by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:10pm
I don't have an explanation beyond the estrogen "kinder gentler person" thing I mentioned elsewhere.
I just saw that Yglesias has a theory on that:
Why Elizabeth Warren is losing even as white professionals love her; Many college grads are living in the Warren bubble.
I do buy that some. I don't know if you have a degree or degrees, but you are extremely given to logic, most people are not like that. And I think most left people go by more by judging empathy via empathy (conservatives are the opposite for many different reasons, but mainly following a rigid moral code.) Warren is nice and pleasant and polite mom type, but she is still very A brain. She's the yellin kind of mom, the schoolmarm, not the empath kind of mom. Joe has empath skills, used cynically or not. This part of running for president is part of the deal unfortunately precisely because so many more people participate in voting for president, thinking simplistically that there's one leader responsible for everything. And the more rational, educated people know that the down ticket elections are just as important or even more so, because the president is mostly a manager.
Here's a refresher to get what I am talking about: Bill Clinton had the empathy thing in spades. He was also a wonk. That is an EXTREMELY RARE combo.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:31pm
They need the kinder gentler Mom - cereal Mom? oat bran flakes? raisin nuts?
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 5:33pm
Not saying he's a genius, more like he just got lucky this time, but in CA, she's getting exactly the type of voter Yglesias was talking about. One could easily peg these as the most elite liberal neighborhoods in the state, they are used for stereotyping that way, could easily make for a comedian's joke:
Warren above 15% in only 5 CDs, as of now: SF, Berkeley, Silicon Valley, Santa Monica and West Hollywood.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 6:37pm
look what I found, the conservative lady reacting to a debate on Feb. 19:
I noted her here yesterday lauding the behavior of Biden and Mayor Pete the portrait of decency and generosity, two generations (Buttigieg/Beto and Biden) coming together is powerful
Don't forget that mainly what the 60% that don't give Trump approval don't approve of is his bullying behavior and sense of entitlement. They want the opposite. They want someone who can win against Trump but they don't want an aggressive attack dog who attacks their own, they only want someone who stands up to bullies. They are sick ot that behavior, and sick of the anger in the populace, they say that to pollsters all the time, they want the fueling of the divisiveness to stop. This is why the video with the Mayor Pete endorsement was popular.
I also posted this Ryan Lizza tweet on the same thread; these people knew from polls what people want:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:13pm
I'm just depressed about how things have turned out. imo the worst of the candidates come out on top. I don't know that I'm so logical, I tend to wear my heart on my sleeve, but I don't get the empathy thing in politics. That clip you posted with Biden speaking after Pete endorsed him means absolutely nothing to me. I'm so tired of the candidates I like going nowhere or not even running. I'm so tired of voting for democrats I don't like. You know, there's not an infinite number of views out there. No matter what view I come to there's someone writing an article with the same view. There's at most a dozen. I'm not alone in this. I see people in the comment sections saying basically the same things as I.
by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 8:30pm
Sanders Super Tuesday problem seemed to be that despite huge numbers at rallies, the surge in voters did not occur among the younger voters that Sanders said he would bring to the Democratic Party. His problem was the voters, not the billionaires. Biden had virtually no ground game in Minnesota, but won the primary. Biden won in Massachusetts, in Bernie's backyard. The turnout surge went to Biden.
Bernie may regain his footing in Michigan.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:17pm
You don't get it because you only listen to the sound of your own voice. How many times do I have to say it. I'M NOT A SANDERS SUPPORTER
by ocean-kat on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:21pm
Warren was not an option.
Harris was not an option
Klobuchar was not an option
Edit to add:
I read your lament about your fave not winning
The choices are Biden or Sanders.
2nd Edit to add:
PWhen black voters threatened to stay home in 2016, one dagbloger suggested that they be ignored
There was a surge in turnout in 2018, and seats were flipped
There appears to be a surge in the primaries. Hopefully it will hold up in the General as you stay home.
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 11:04pm
Goodness, AA, this is so gendered. Mom? Schoolmarm? I don't like to blame sexism--it's too easy an excuse--but these labels beg for it. A friend of mine also described Warren as a "schoolmarm" and a "librarian" to explain his distaste for her. Ick.
As for empathy, that was Bill's "I feel your pain" thing, but it's hardly a requirement for leadership. None of those dudes carved on Mount Rushmore were known for empathy, and we certainly don't describe them as "empath dads." Same holds for female leaders. Is Angela Merkel an "empath mom?" What about Margaret "Iron Lady" Thatcher? And our good friend Donald Trump has as much empathy as crocodile, but that didn't prevent him from getting elected.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 10:01pm
We have gendered categorizing, and Warren received some very unfair dismissal, but some qualifiers:
1) Warren is a research tank/legal team wonk type who's evolving into something else. "librarian" academician isn't that far off
2) yes, Mutti is one classic role type mixed with politics/work (Madeleine Alright, Queen Victoria... matriarch. Anna Soubry in UK politics is a bit less matriarch, a bit just organized, expressive, cut-thru-the-bullshit politician -Nicola Sturgeon in Scotland is similar). We also have Kamala Harris as lawyer/litigator type - if you watched Suits, the black female head of the firm is a smoother, more savvy Kamala, and you can compare the different male partners as other stereotype exec models (boyish plays hard breaks rules, heavy presence but slower more methodical, abrasive climber...). Sheryl Sandberg might be an example of that in the real life business exec works. Jacinda Ardern, NZ PM, is probably our most evolved example of this in real life, including that great and difficult mix of mother + professional. (I don't know Warren's personal life, but she comes across as childless, which we sexist humans detect and judge and categorize, and at her age that drifts towards spinster vs matriarch, though give us 30 years it'll be more normalized).
3) in an exec job search the best mix if qualities might win, or it still might be that the most extreme in X rises above. In politics it's the extreme - Bernie is the firebrand, Joe is the not too swift nice good looking guy, Pete won the next-generation category over Beto (and more unfairly over Booker), Bloomberg found no oxygen in a less likable but more savvy Biden with money and more atavistic politics. Liz is identified too close to Bernie, partly her own fault, and her master regulator credentials havent stuck out accordingly - she is an older Sandberg type but old and Silicon Valley don't really jive, so it doesn't project easy. Instead it's "wonk" (or "geek" for boys)
4) none of these were great choices. There was no Blair or Trudeau or Macron or Ardern or Obama or dare I say it as half Mutti/half wonk/half-Ardern Hillary. We're still stuck waiting for our next American Idol. Booker didn't charm and dominate enough, Klobuchar was too 2nd tier, Harris is not enough smooth politician (yet?)...
5) the myth of the uncompromising revolution on the left should be dead. The youth vote didn't turn up and won't, and the transition from caucuses to primaries shows less actual support than promoted. What this may mean is that in the future the more pragmatic leftists can get some air to develop a more European platform, rather than having to swing hard for the far left bleachers to satisfy that litany of not enactable demands. There may be a chance to actually discuss pragmatic global warming, health care, wealth redistribution, et Al in a way that doesn't scare and threaten to tear down the house. Michael Bloomberg tossed away a half billion dollars - Hillary's total 2016 spend - without a sweat, nothing happened. Jeff Bezos can do the same, and on and in. We don't have infinite billionaires, but enough vats to tap for *something*, not everything.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 12:34am
I still had the window on Jennifer Rubin's Feb. 19 comment on Warren that I posted. And I see the first reply to her addresses the gendered language issue quite well:
Whatever you want to call it! Male. female, any gender version, I am seeing that the voters didn't want it.
They don't want "fierce and uncompromising". They think of Trump as fierce and uncompromising.
They think of Fox News as pushing fierce and uncompromising.
Uncle Joe talks about compromising, is more kind than fierce.
Mayor Pete did too and wasn't that fierce, can clearly be kind. But he had the educated elite thing in spades and has little experience, zero experience with Congress. Uncle Joe talks working class. Liz Warren talks about helping working class from elite professor view.
I don't get why it's so hard to see. I just couldn't predict it because I wasn't sure, with Bernie bros on the scene and all, that Dem voters wanted to stay permanently angry fierce and uncompromising.It's clear now that a huge number don't. The non-Bernie vote wants to go back to tolerating the other and getting on with life. They think Joe can work with the angry ones and calm them down. And they don't even hate billionaires unless the billionaires are haters. For example, when Liz Warren attacked Bloomberg about NDA, to moderates who don't like fighting, she became a screaming feminist banshee. She came across as the bully, not him.It's this, the no tolerance thing. No nuance about all kinds of human frailties, no tolerance, no grey, just black and white. Fierce and uncompromising or mean and angry, Biden voters don't want it. And they want standing up to bullies, they don't want more bullying as the way to accomplish it. Neither Obama nor Bill Clinton used bullying or banishing, they'd talk to anyone and keep trying.
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 3:49am
Let's note the NDA thing - there are a lot of abusive employers *AND* crazy scheming employees. Trump obviously abused his by getting one from everyone, even trying to require them for federal employees. Weinstein had some nasty shit. But the private settlement is one efficient mechanism for dealing with stuff without a court case, and often to avoid lack of evidence, messy public episodes that are fair or not. In the age of cancel culture, that becomes *more* important if you can get it. What does it take to be accused of sexual mispropiety or gender discrimination? Not a lot, true or not. This "let's cancel the NDA" thing is begging to expose things that are nuanced in a totally non-nuanced way. Even if it seems innocent, one person on Twitter will see it as a travesty, and then it's another outtage-du-jour, so we discourage even more talented people from going into politics - the risks just aren't worth it. Al Franken was a comedian entertaining the troops years ago - noble shit, no? But instead he had to resign primarily because of a silly obvious fake grope picture (I can't really decide whether the putting his hand on several asses has any merit, but even without, the photo was enough for the hyperintolerant reaction). Bloomberg's worth $60 billion. He's obviously done something good, something bad in building that up. But if you do that much business, someone will hate you and you're bound to screw up even if 0.0001% of the time - that builds up over a hugely active career. So every incident for Bloomberg carries the same weight as say a Beto?
Does the avg voter want to dive that far down in the weeds?
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 4:11am
Heck, I used to think of NDA as standard in white collar corporate world, cluelessly I guess? No controversy or dust up necessary: if you get laid off, you sign one if you want the severance pay! Take it or leave it, if they give you severance, they don't want you dissing the ways of the company to the public. You want the freedom of trying to ruin their brand and telling everyone what a terrible place they are to work, why should they give you a present upon separation?
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 4:24am
Yeah, basically. There's some limits re free speech, but it's also a hook to resolve diverging intersts.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:52am
p.s. important to add the big picture that everyone Dem except a few Bernie bros had a priority of "anyone but Trump" over anything else. That while many might prefer Joe's approach, they themselves weren't going to be "fierce and uncompromising" about that. The even Bernie'd be better than Trump thing. And Joe looked for a while like he was dying and they just want to use their vote to add to the strongest candidate's chances. But once there was the big endorsement from SC, and then Pete and Amy dropped out, they could go with their natural preference.
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 4:17am
Ok, let's be precise about what we actually know versus what we speculate. We know that more primary voters prefer Biden and Sanders to Warren (though it should be noted the numbers are much less stark than the delegate count. Biden received about 4.6M votes on Super Tuesday, Bernie's 3.7M, Warren 1.7M.) What we don't know is why voters prefer Biden and Sanders. That's speculation--a narrative that we craft to explain why Warren lost.
We should be wary of simple narratives like the idea that Warren was too "fierce and uncompromising." People have many reasons for supporting candidates--ideology, intelligence, personality, physical appearance, etc. Perhaps some voters preferred Biden because Warren was too fierce, but how could you possibly quantify that? And what about the voters who preferred Sanders because Warren wasn't fierce enough? Indeed, if Warren = "fierce and uncompromising" and Sanders = "fierce and uncompromising," then the "fierce and uncompromising" faction won a majority of 5.4M on Tuesday. (I write this mainly to illustrate how silly it is to boil down voter preference to a single variable.)
Of course, we're human, so we need to create stories to make sense of complicated stuff. But we should at least try to avoid falling back on sexist tropes, like blaming Warren's loss on her being a "schoolmarm" or a "yelling mom." These are the worst kind of simplifications because they reinforce the stereotypes that hold women back in politics.
by Michael Wolraich on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 10:53am
Personally, I'm a fan of Warren's and like her best of all the candidates (I thought early on Booker might rise to the challenge). But still, turning on Warren, she wears me out. It's musicality - there needs to be some dynamics - forte, piano, forte, piano... obviously monotone would be even worse - she's not like that. It's not being female - I have no problem with lots of Euro and American female speakers, including gruff voices, sweet voices,... Anyway, my 2 cents.
As for policy approach, I like forceful but knowing when and how to compromise. I don't feel Bernie gives much invite to the table, more like a 60s Teamsters boss ready to go on strike whatever concessions. I would be hesitant to lump Warren and Sanders votes together.
PS - oh, crap!
I wish she'd stayed in a bit longer to see how she fared w/o much of the noise and billionaire distraction. Maybe news media would have even acknowledged her as a real candidate.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 12:34pm
I just wanted one debate with the three of them. Eh.
by Michael Wolraich on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 2:45pm
Yeah, exactly. Don't know who thought this a good idea, or maybe she was worried she'd say something mean to mess up VP slot? But then they seem to already nix that to keep her Senate seat
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 3:36pm
She came in third in her own state. The debate would not have been a good look for her.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 4:32pm
She came in 3rd in 5 or 6 states, which is pretty damn good running against a busineasman/NYC mayor who pumped a half billion dollars in, an ex-VP/most familiar face, and the loudest oxygen-sucking socialist out there. And frankly I'd like her ideas to get a reasonable hearing for once whether she finished 15th. She could have persisted just a bit more.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:11pm
Why waste the money and the effort of volunteers? Quitting the race was the most rational thing to do. She still has to influence the platform.
It will be interesting to see who she endorses.
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:25pm
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/3/21161603/bernie-sanders-beat-elizabeth-warr...
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:21pm
I respect her as an accomplished grownup feminist Senator of the U.S., capable of being the president, therefore I respect her decision to suspend as her own decision and a wise one. This is also where I also differed with you on Al Franken. I think he chose to do what he thought best. He could have fought, he didn't think it wise. These are powerful politicians, used to win some, lose some. Victimhood doesn't fit the job description. They don't get my pity and I believe they don't want it, either.
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:43pm
Franken couldn't have fought. #MeToo was too fresh. Maybe he shouldn't have fought anyway, I still don't know. But he was taken out quick. The GOP laughed and laughed.
[Read Quinn Norton's piece about finding out she was being tweeted out while watching Black Panther, and being fired by the time she left the theater. It moved about that fast with Franken. The natives smelled blood.]
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:49pm
I respect her decision, but think she & we would have been better off holding on a week or two more.
She did fine in the South Carolina debate (largely taking out Bloomberg) even though she finished poorly, but all the press could talk about was Pete's exit. So finally she had some room with the others bowing out, and her largely having earned/justified staying in bit longer.
ST Place Dels %vote Votes
CA 4th 5 12.2% 382,551
CO 4th 1 17.3% 135,013
ME 3rd 4 15.7% 31,514
MA 3rd 25 21.4% 299,733
MN 3rd 10 15.4% 114,754
NC 3rd 2 10.5% 138,502
OK 4th 1 13.4% 40,676
TN 4th 1 10.4% 53,555
TX 4th 5 11.4% 237,028
UT 4th 0 15.5% 28,178
VT 4th 0 12.6% 19,816
VA 4th 2 10.7% 142,470
Not a stellar finish, but certainly respectable - over a million votes, over 50 delegates.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:59pm
I still don't get Steyer's run - Yang is quirky with ideas, Bloomberg us a known behemoth, but Steyer just deflected what he does best, support. Anyway, I still think Warren did quite well to this point, with a fairly consistent cross-state %. Looking at the landscape last December, you'd think a goal of surviving til after Super Tuesday, this would have met the slightly disappointed but "I'm-still-here" requisites. Why exactly the hurry to get the early pack over and out completely? 5-6 months of "I'm better!" "No, you're not!"
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 03/06/2020 - 1:08am
I dunno, I'd like a few extra candidates in just in case something bad happens. Near Octagenarians and coronavirus to last us thru August, November, January?
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 1:10pm
Hillary caught removing candidates from the primary rolls, rumors about "senior party" influence are true...
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 2:44pm
I'll just throw this back at you, Michael. There's a reason I posted it upthread. Ryan Lizza is one of the most astute judges of politicians and their character and knows how to dig for the truth about their lives. And these people he's looking at here, they know Biden well and his strengths and weaknesses and they know politics and they read polls all the time. They don't just write endorsement statements off the top of their head, they think about what they think will help sell the candidate:
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:08pm
Good for him - his self-promotion is working.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/joe-biden-middle-class_n_5c8032d8e4b06ff2...
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:07pm
Of course they're praising his personal qualities. They have no choice. He doesn't have any policy ideas and most of the policies he's supported over the years were bad.
by ocean-kat on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:37pm
Hmmm, I see Joe used the "fierce" word, too!
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:24pm
and oh he's crazy about Liz's dog!
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:32pm
Yang calls her a fighter but far from fierce Always gracious, warm, brilliant and genuine
But then I think he's a genius at this stuff. I am still agog at the power of this, won't ever forget it:
He also did some thanks to his volunteers and staff after that which were just superb.
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:20pm
I hope he runs for mayor
by Michael Wolraich on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 11:09pm
and by the way, Joe thanks you all, and he'd really love to have you on his team:
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 5:27pm
Between Coronavirus and Trump, they just voted safe and boring. But that doesn't mean she's not up for a crazy fling on the side, just semi-discreet.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:13pm
I think a lot of Dem voters want more than safe and boring, what they are after is someone who doesn't attack like an Avenatti attacks. You admire that quality and think it's necessary but I think the majority of Dem women above milllennial age do not (and apparently suburban GOP women) and it's what they hate about Trump, much more than his stupidity and self-interest dealing. If it's not smart politics, so be it, they don't care, that's what they want: decency and kindness. My mother, a bleeding heart liberal empath, would have said but why do they have to be so mean? A person like Avenatti would literally frighten her, she'd never trust him in a million years.
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:11pm
I admire that at times & it turns me off at times.
Alan Grayson fought the good fight out of Florida, was a great assetm
but after a while his smarmy contrary demeanour got old.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:31pm
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 4:45am
and Yang on Bloomberg:
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 4:47am
The Scaramouche says on CNN he will vote for Joe but stay an "old school Republican"
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:00pm
speaking of Romney, he won't say who he voted for:
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 4:10pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:27pm
by artappraiser on Wed, 03/04/2020 - 7:32pm
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:08am
humbly suggest Michael should note ^
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:19am
is a fairly extensive new article published Tues @ 9:52 pm, in which reporters Sean Sullivan & Robert Costa obviously reached out to a lot of sources...
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:53am
Rick Wilson:
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 7:03am
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:33pm
Excerpt:
by artappraiser on Thu, 03/05/2020 - 6:44pm
Holy smokes, look at these numbers, makes me wonder how many Warren first choice supporters are out there in the states coming up and what an endorsement might do:
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/06/2020 - 1:14am
And instead of a fallback for either team we have to worry about people we don't like. Can Warren reconsider? This doesn't help anyone. Sudden death? Maybe. Not just a heartbeat - a Cuba-like gaffe from either side?
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 03/06/2020 - 1:26am
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/06/2020 - 3:38am
I like this by Jilani on Warren as analysis:
by artappraiser on Fri, 03/06/2020 - 9:42am