MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
![]() |
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
The Washington Post has an important column By Robert Kagan in Sunday’s edition. It is behind a paywall. Extensive excerpts with opinion added is here.
Comments
Well, that's a believable & unbiased article, with its "The Democrats’ Russia-made-Hillary-lose hysteria has pushed a weakened President Trump into the arms of the neocons..." lede. Apparently there was no Russian hacking of Podesta-DNC-DCCC or fake news push, no Wikileaks leak, no Trump money-trail to Russia with Flynn-Kushner-etc-etc meeting with the ambassador, no weird Nunes midnight run to the White House, etc. - go back to sleep it was only a bad dream... here's another drip of soma to help you snooze...
I wrote about Russia's expanded roadmap a couple days ago. Indeed the Syrian refugee crisis has weakened the EU and likely can claim Brexit as a casualty. Consortium doesn't bother to say who they think did the latest Sarin attack, but presumably they're still navel-gazing over who shot down MH17 some years ago.
There is 0 serious debate on the left about how the US needs to project strength and play both militarily and diplomatically in this area - it's always "the US bombed something, bad guys". We see foreign meddling by Saudi Arabia, Iran, Hezbollah, Turkey, Russia, Qatar et al, but in this naïve US-always-wrong worldview, the US should be the only power to abstain from this power struggle.
Unfortunately we're back to having the wrong president to have the adults-only version of this discussion, as worse than under Bush, we don't know how much is for ego, to appease a new neocon alignment now that Trump's go-it-alone strategy is falling apart, how much is a backroom collusion with Russia, how much is general knee-jerk reaction to make the latest news cycle based on some Twitter reaction, to burnish that Commander-in-Chief image, etc., etc.
But just because Kagan's one of the left's favorite bete noires doesn't mean we can keep having this dismissive non-discussions about his articles and come out clean and informed. Unlike this lazy left reaction, Kagan at least proposes to stand for something and lays it out on the table. Critique it with something concrete, not just all the slapdash guilty-by-association with this or that group. (oh yes, Consortium backs up its piece by quoting itself - color me unimpressed).
Another issue is that foreign affairs often requires fast response even without 100% information, something that drives me crazy with a lot of the "but we haven't proven with certainty..." If science was this hesitant, we still wouldn't be using electricity or conveyor belts. It should be obvious now that a lot of times if you hesitate very long, your clock's cleaned and the turf's gone without a fight, and then we get to do useless post-mortem "what happened?" Yes, we will often get it wrong if we act, and we will often get it wrong if we don't act. Pretending that only 1 version comes out morally wrong is a dangerous delusion.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 2:38am
Good post PP, better than mine. I thought to just add a few points to your's. I agree with everything you said.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 9:10am
If any of this is worth talking about then it is worth getting some different ideas in play, as OK mentioned. Kagan lays out his plan which I think is flawed in the direction of being maniacal even if it works, an extremely unlikely outcome. I agree with Parry's opinions of Kagan. Where can we expect Kagan's ideas to lead us? Well, here are some thoughts on that. Here are some more. There seems to be a lot of relevant expertise in this group and I don't see reason to question the motives.
by A Guy Called LULU on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 1:31pm
Our "Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity" seem much more interested in promoting Rissia's interests than ours - what gives? Plus hadn't taken you for a Pat Buchanan fan.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 2:05pm
They seem to me to be promoting sanity. Where do you see them putting Russia's interests ahead of ours?
I was strongly against Reagan and his administration so I have in the past been against Buchanan in general as well as anyone else who spoke for him. Sorta like I have been regarding David Frum and his axis of evil crap when he was working for Shrub. I occasionally, lately, have seen both of them making sense and so I acknowledge it to myself and sometimes pass it on. I think that in this case Buchanan is making sense and Kagan should be publicly flogged based on his history and his current advocacy.
by A Guy Called LULU on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 3:05pm
They are a small group that's been around a long time, the group started out fighting the Bush admin's "Iraq still has WMD's" argument before the invasion. There is a wikipedia entry. Not activists, mostly just do op-eds, classic non-hawk liberals, somewhat anti-neo-lib and very anti neo con.
by artappraiser on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:50pm
Yes I know - we've dueled on this before, when VIPS was really 5 people, including UFO spotter Mike Gravel whose SIGINT was a short period back in the 50's and as presidential candidate had not 1 but 2 of the strangest commercials ever, and then the paranoid PUMA freak Larry Johnson who'd been largely discredited from altering a tape smearing Kerry about rape in Vietnam and claiming a "whitey" pulpit tape from Michelle Obama that never appeared and wrote a famoous op-ed 2 months before 9/11 claiming we had no foreign terrorist worries, ,plus the eternal protester guy Ray McGovern who I remember standing up in a dark room turning his back to Hillary to show.... something.... that she somehow didn't notice in the dark, and after some minutes getting removed from the room and as a 70+ senior showing some bruise on his arm to the Democratic Underground talk show hair-on-fire circuit to prove abuse.
They have a few more possibly credible names on their roster now, but I don't know who's involved, so for me their authority is largely already compromised from the 3-ring circus (I don't know who the other 2 original members are, but these are the 3 duncemen of the crapopalypse celebrities driving their supposed relevance).
And with that I leave you Mike Gravel:
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 04/12/2017 - 3:02am
great descriptions
Edit to add: oh and Larry Johnson, forgot about him, lol, he's nuts, just that simple! You make me recall that Marshall had him as a contributor at TPM Cafe for a short while, I suspect he got fired for foul behavior towards commenters--really just classic troll stuff! Was quite a bit before the Obamamania influx, so most of you wouldn't have been there to see it. But it was really bad....guy's nuts, has a temper problem, almost a "going postal" type, not good interacting with people.
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 2:38am
I remember him well. I interacted with him. I told him he was nuts.
by A Guy Called LULU on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 2:45am
so we agree on something, hah! you were one of those unfortunates tangling with him, you're helping me remember, it was like he just didn't even understand what people were saying, sometimes they were agreeing with him and he'd still start a fight...
by artappraiser on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 3:19am
This started with you saying,"Our "Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity" seem much more interested in promoting Russia's interests than ours - what gives?" I asked for an example that went to that point. Should have been easy if there was any truth to it. This is the best you could do.
by A Guy Called LULU on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 2:40am
Persistent, aren't you?
Here's your link: https://www.commondreams.org/views/2017/04/11/trump-should-rethink-syria...
Just go through it paragraph by paragraph and note that it could have been propaganda written by the Russian foreign service itself, including the gratuitous ever-present warning in Paragraph 1 about how we might start WWIII/nuclear war, which has been the cri-de-paix appealing to castrated inaction since whenever, and of course "the innocent Syrians just happened to hit a Sarin gas depot", the one they've been just sitting on apparently even while getting their asses handed to them in Aleppo (with Syrian chlorine bombs, by the way - but hey, if it don't say Sarin, we start from scratch)
I would think that noting that these people are batshit crazy and have been so for some time would not be seen as an "ad hominem" but as a basic appeal to sanity and pruning the ol' reference list: when you lie down with deceptive morons, you wake up with deceptive morons. I mean, what's the point - they've been wrong 67 times, but 68 might be the charm?
And then you have the nerve to use an ad hominem dismissing the Daily Beast guy as biased and unbalanced. Touche, ironic touch noted.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 4:53am
Your knee-jerk standard when something is posted that you disagree with and that challenges some decree you have made is to mock the origin as worthless and to mock the poster as a misguided dupe for linking to it. In this case you responded with a clear ad hominem that did not even connect to the issue.
Just go through it paragraph by paragraph and note that it could have been propaganda written by the Russian foreign service itself, ...
I have read the statement and I do not see anywhere that they are shilling for Russia. If you find such a statement you could point it out. If something is correct should it go unsaid just because it goes against a more comfortable view of the world which posits all blame somewhere that can make us feel good about whatever we do, including killing innocents by the score?? I don't think so.
including the gratuitous ever-present warning in Paragraph 1 about how we might start WWIII/nuclear war, ...
If you believe that there is no danger of a major war starting or the one[s] we are in escalating catastrophically, you could say so. If you think that there is such a danger but it is all do to the actions of others and that we are on an intelligent course to avoid such an outcome you could make that point too in opposition to the piece which clearly states the groups opposition to our course of action because they believe it might lead us into a disastrous war which could otherwise be avoided. .
I would think that noting that these people are batshit crazy and have been so for some time would not be seen as an "ad hominem"
Your attack on a few members of the group is by definition ad hominem. Name a group anywhere of say ten or more that has an agenda or policy that they come together to work for that doesn’t include someone who fits your standard of batshit crazy in some area of their belief system. That does not automatically disprove anything they say on any other subject. History is chock full of people who left their mark on certain subjects in good ways but who demonstrated batshit crazy beliefs in other areas. We both agree that some silly bullshit gets expressed, even here at Dag, I say even by you sometimes, even if you show good sense some other times. This is a case where I think you are the bullshitter more interested in being the final arbitrator of any issue, even when your retort is just passing wind, than in giving an opposing view any consideration. You can pretend that your shit don’t stink but then you have to come up with some bullshit explanation when someone holds their nose and opens a window.
I mean, what's the point - they've been wrong 67 times, but 68 might be the charm?
Bullshit.
You talk ironically of deceptive morons: Putin says maybe a cache of sarin or other nerve agent was being stored in what they had identified as a cache of weapons and so it was bombed. and some of the weapons turned out to be nerve agents. It is even suggested as a possible explanation that the gas was planted and deliberately blown up by the terrorists. Both ideas are immediately laughed out of court as bullshit so that our military reaction will not be questioned but rather cheered on. Those possibilities are not proven and they certainly might not be the correct explanation, but there is no one involved that is above such an action and plenty who are involved who are capable of such and are in a position to do so and who would benefit greatly [have benefited greatly?] from carrying it out.
Are there any explanations parallel with those of the usual suspects that are flip-flopped when the onus is on us? When a building in Mosul is bombed by the US killing many civilians US spokesmen suggest that the many civilians who became bug splat were herded into the building and then the terrorists took actions from the building to invite its bombing. Dirty bastards. Easy to believe about those guys whether any proof is supplied or not especially when the idea gets a lot of favorable press. They are terrorists and they are our enemy in that zip code even though they are our proxies down the road a ways. It is also suggested that the terrorists might have leveled the building themselves after the attack to create amplify an horrific incident that makes the US look bad. Sounds possible, and is easy and comfortable to believe, especially since that gives somewhat of a reason to not criticize or regret or even give much thought to our action that killed so many innocents. I’m sure the US military is investigating the incident though and will give us a full and fair accounting eventually that will clear it all up.
I don’t recall you accusing the US of putting out bullshit to cover their asses after killing civilians in Mosul when they put out almost the same explanations or excuses, whatever the case, to explain away tragic deaths which they are unquestionably involved in. Note, I am not accusing the US of deliberately killing civilians in that case. Shit happens. Every side, every time, tries to put any blame they can on the other side. Some morons will believe everything their side says every time despite a history that proves it is often bullshit while believing the worst about the other side every time even if the established facts are few and extremely weak in supporting the charge which goes against common sense.
And then you have the nerve to use an ad hominem dismissing the Daily Beast guy as biased and unbalanced.
You should try to clear your mind and then critically read your own writing.
In you first comment here you reference yourself in the second paragraph. Then, towards the end you say, “Critique it with something concrete, [something you have yet to do in this case] not just all the slapdash guilty-by-association with this or that group. (oh yes, Consortium backs up its piece by quoting itself - color me unimpressed).” Color me quite impressed but not favorably. Ironic touch noted indeed. What is your ad hominem response other than casting guilt by association with ideas by a couple members of the group on other subjects that are not relevant to the group’s position on the subject which the group is addressing?
And then you have the nerve to use an ad hominem dismissing the Daily Beast guy as biased and unbalanced. Touche, ironic touch noted.
Touche? No, just more bullshit. I did not at all dismiss the Daily Beast guy. I said he might be correct in his article and did so with no implied snark or sarcasm but I also gave a link that examines his history on Syria reporting and makes a strong argument that he is biased in his views which leads to a bias in his reporting. You are all about digging into a persons history for the purpose of evaluating their positions, aren't you? Unless it might weaken their argument for something you support.
by A Guy Called LULU on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 12:36pm
A few members? I trashed 3 of the 5 founders, the other 2 being relatively unknown. If I got my ass kicked that bad, I'd lick my wounds and figure out a way to start over, but I'm not everyone.
by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 1:31pm
So you go back years to trash 3 people for unrelated things to detract from giving any credence to the message of today. You deliberately ignore or distort the content of the letter of a couple days ago, and deliberately distort the history of the groups warnings and predictions from the past which have been so much more accurate than those of the same power brokers who are today beating the drums for more aggression. Rather than intelligently responding to any of the VIPS thesis you are trying to say that based on unrelated instances of three people years ago that this entire group is completely discredited and should be ignored when they address the issue they addressed just a couple days ago. This list of the current signers is of more than five people but I am certain that either one of us could find something about any number of them to play your intellectually dishonest game game with. Actually though, I admit/realize that I can't personally vouch for any of them. Maybe they are all Russian dupes that would rather blame America first [what political side popularized that handy slur] rather than try to steer it from what they see as a bad course.
* * *Eugene D. Betit, Intelligence Analyst, DIA, Soviet FAO, (US Army, ret.)
William Binney, Technical Director, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.)
Marshall Carter-Tripp, Foreign Service Officer and former Office Director in the State Department Bureau of Intelligence and Research, (ret.)
Thomas Drake, Senior Executive Service, NSA (former)
Bogdan Dzakovic, Former Team Leader of Federal Air Marshals and Red Team, FAA Security, (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Robert Furukawa, Capt, CEC, USN-R, (ret.)
Philip Giraldi, CIA, Operations Officer (ret.)
Mike Gravel, former Adjutant, top secret control officer, Communications Intelligence Service; special agent of the Counter Intelligence Corps and former United States Senator
Matthew Hoh, former Capt., USMC, Iraq and Foreign Service Officer, Afghanistan (associate VIPS)
Larry C. Johnson, CIA & State Department (ret.)
Michael S. Kearns, Captain, USAF (Ret.); ex-Master SERE Instructor for Strategic Reconnaissance Operations (NSA/DIA) and Special Mission Units (JSOC)
John Brady Kiesling, Foreign Service Officer (ret.)
John Kiriakou, former CIA analyst and counterterrorism officer, and former senior investigator, Senate Foreign Relations Committee
Linda Lewis, WMD preparedness policy analyst, USDA (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Lisa Ling, TSgt USAF (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Edward Loomis, NSA, Cryptologic Computer Scientist (ret.)
David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.)
Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Near East, CIA and National Intelligence Council (ret.)
Torin Nelson, former Intelligence Officer/Interrogator, Department of the Army
Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (Ret.)
Coleen Rowley, FBI Special Agent and former Minneapolis Division Legal Counsel (ret.)
Scott Ritter, former MAJ., USMC, and former UN Weapon Inspector, Iraq
Peter Van Buren, U.S. Department of State, Foreign Service Officer (ret.) (associate VIPS)
Kirk Wiebe, former Senior Analyst, SIGINT Automation Research Center, NSA
Sarah G. Wilton, Commander, US Naval Reserve (ret), DIA (ret.)
Robert Wing, former Foreign Service Officer (associate VIPS)
Ann Wright, U.S. Army Reserve Colonel (ret) and former U.S. Diplomat
by A Guy Called LULU on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 2:16pm
Again, what's the point? I already said they'd expanded the list from the 3 founding nutcakes. Quoting them back at me changes nothing. I'm sure the Krishnas have some amazing members by now, but I'm still not going back to read the Gita and shave my head.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 12:37am
Good question. What's the point?
by A Guy Called LULU on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 1:18am
Update: sadly I did go back and skim some other VIPS pieces, including a long paean to Obama on Malaysian flight 17, noting how Reagan handled the Korean shootdown 35 years earlier but not noting the lies Putin was using about Ukraine trying to shoot down his own plane, etc.
For such "balanced" ex-INT staff, they somehow never find any negatives on the Russian side ever - how can that be? It's all about portraying Russians as sympathetic actors with unimpeachable motives. I can be an asshole, but apparently the Russians can't, or at least nothing worth mentioning. Ever.
For all their deep intelligence links, deep Russian knowledge, what have they brought to the current hacking/collusion scandal? 0, crickets. Instead, it's just more of the same on Russia and Syria, don't be too hard on Russia, it's a setup, etc.
VIPS is compromised as a serious source. There may be some truth in there somewhere, but life is too short for this much digging.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 1:22am
First, ISIS has been documented by the press/observers as using civilians as human shields many times, along with mass assassinations. That doesn't mean it happened in this case, but this isn't a fantasy conjecture.
Second, the US didn't put out bullshit to cover their asses - they acknowledged straight up that the bombing seemed to be from their raid, that they were checking to see if what if any extenuating circumstances there might be, and reviewing their whole approach to targeted bombings before continuing.
[the Iraqis were less restrained in blaming ISIS, but we're not Iraqis, are we?]
I've disagreed with US policy many times before, including seeming mission creep in Libya and expecting regime change to improve matters, but by most published accounts of the battle for Mosul, they've been playing it rather responsibly.
I think we can usefully characterize our differences in 1) what you see as a valid & damning critique of Gutman and what I (and Gutman) see as a long & rambling and largely unpersuasive & extraneous criticism. I suspect this difference isn't going to go away no matter how many times we replay for different articles.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 6:52am
I remember your strong feelings about the intervention in Libya. It certainly does give you more credibility on this issue, just my two cents.
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 10:58am
I agree so strongly. Lefty commentary that is fighting old coalitions is useless.
I've had a day away from all of his, come back to big picture: I think it behooves everyone to remember that Trump campaigned as an isolationist Buchanan style and sold himself as one. BUT anyone willing to read knows he has not really been doing that on trade so far. And now this Syrian situation. Not to mention the whole health bill debacle where he ended up making the new version of the Tea Party an enemy. Clearly he's going to continue to act as a wild card independent and not court support from any one ideological camp that we are used to. To try to find an ideological camp with writers that can explain him and to identify any one group as for or against him is a fool's game. He's going to be changing coalitions by his very nature as he moves on issues. It's crucial for anyone who cares about politics keep an open mind right now, to read widely and not use old criteria. He's not a neo-con nor a neo-lib, nor a classic GOP, he's just Trump. Sometimes he might be working towards something such a group likes, sometimes not, not following any ideology.
by artappraiser on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:52pm
I may not agree with all of Kagan's plans to "solve" the crisis in Syria but I agree with most of his historical analysis. The sad reality is that if there are no good options America has to choose the least bad option. Noninvolvement just leaves a vacuum that other players will fill. That's usually the worse option. As Kagan points out now we have not just Iran and Hezbollah but also Russia filling up the vacuum and a refugee crisis in Europe. All from Obama doing almost nothing. Trying to mitigate the damage is so much harder now. Kagan's prescription for war in Syria is way too hawkish since it will put us in conflict with Russia. I'm not confident that Russia will back down as Kagan assumes.
I'm not sure what Parry's plans for Syria are but negotiations with Russia is unlikely to be successful. Russia's main priority by far is to have a friendly dictator, Assad, in Syria and to preserve the Russian naval base in Tartus. If we accept that what do we get in return? What does America bring to the table as either a credible threat or a carrot to convince Putin to give up his main priorities?
I don't agree that there's a anti Russian hysteria on the left but even if there is it didn't stop Trump from formulating a coherent foreign policy. The only thing stopping Trump from formulating policy is Trump's ignorance on every policy issue and his lack of interest in correcting that ignorance.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 7:45am
If there are no good options because the rebels are Islamists, and we can't negotiate with the Russians, what is the least worse option. Once we had imagery of a rebel eating a slain man's lung, what was Obama's goood option? Which rebel group was Obama supposed to support?
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:06am
It seems like there was no good side to support so we shouldn't have taken sides. But Obama essentially did. By saying Assad must go he took the rebels side. For a man who usually is so careful choosing his words he spoke frivolously about Syria. If he had no plan to remove Assad he shouldn't have said Assad must go. Drawing a red line he had no plan to enforce was foolish. Separating out chemical bombs from barrel bombs was foolish as well when the barrel bombs were killing far more civilians.
He could have enforced a no fly zone to significantly reduce the carnage. If Bush1 could get a coalition to remove Iraq from Kuwait a much more thoughtful and popular president in the world could have gotten a UN resolution and a coalition to enforce a no fly zone. That's not possible now because the vacuum he left let the Russians in. Less carnage would have meant less refugees. He could have created safe zones in the Kurdish areas. He could have done more to create safe zones for refugees and to support the refugees camps in Jordan. There were actions he could have taken to mitigate the damage that didn't involve ground troops and were low risk.
Doing nothing was one of the options. Obama picked one of several bad options. Obama chose to do nothing as the situation spun out of control and got worse and worse. Of all the options imo Obama chose the one most likely to make the situation worse. I think he got scared because of the mistakes he made in Libya and couldn't make a risky, but necessary, decision.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 9:00am
When you choose a no-fly zone, the other side can use anti-aircraft missiles.
The current missile strikes on the Syrian airport have resulted in Assad and Russia using cluster bombs.
To really make a change, you need regime change and troops on the ground to prop up the new Syrian government. Nation building is not a good option.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 9:05am
No action is without risk. But no action is often the riskiest option.
The current strikes didn't result in the use of cluster bombs. They've been using them constantly. The chemical attacks are just brief interludes in the use of the conventional bombs.
I didn't say I thought Obama should have done a one off strike on an airport. I didn't say Obama needed to make real change. I didn't propose regime change, troops on the ground, or nation building. So most of your post is a non sequitur. Your usual strategy when you have no good answer is to make a reply that doesn't address the post. It's pretty common when you feel the need to defend Obama. That's what this is all about for you.
I said Obama could have taken action to reduce the carnage, diminish the flow of refugees, and by our presence reduce or stop the influence of other outside players.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 9:26am
My point has been that there is are no rational solutions in Syria. Full stop.We risk mission creep. That was true with Obama and that is true with Trump.
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/opinion/commentary/ct-trump-syria-air...
If there is concern about Syrian refugees, perhaps the United States should end the ban on Syrian refugees.
Edit to add:
We also "had to" do something in Afghanistan ( for the last 16 years)
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/10/afghanistan-longest-war-n...
2nd Edit to add:
I mentioned the cluster bombs after the airport attacks because Swan Spicer initially said that there could be a US response to their use.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/spicer-seeks-clarify-barrel-...
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 10:13am
Tillerson told G7 that we are fighting ISIS and that the era of Assad is ending. The dominant posit in G7 appears to be diplomacy with Russia. The bombings continue.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/11/world/europe/russia-syria-rex-tillers...
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 12:33pm
Since your reading comprehension is so low I repeat once again, I never claimed there was a solution to the Syria problem. I claimed Obama could have taken low risk action to reduce the carnage, diminish the flow of refugees, and by our presence reduce or stop the influence of other outside players. I claimed that Obama's policy of no action made the situation worse.
Our military has a lot of experience with enforcing no fly zones. From 92 to 2003 the US, England, and France maintained a no fly zone over much of Iraq to protect the Kurds in the north and the Shites in the south. Even when Hussein tried to shoot down allied aircraft he failed. Iraq at that time had as much military infrastructure as Syria.
Yes there are risks and no guarantee that a no fly zone over Syria would have been that successful. But it's clear that the Obama doctrine of Don't Do
Stupid ShitAnything At All was a complete failure that made the situation much worse.by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 7:25pm
Would the US shot down a Russian aircraft? If we gave portable surface to air missiles to a group of rebels, could we be certain that they would not fall in the hands of a worse group? No. Would the Russians escalate? Yes.We would end up with military forces on the ground.
Syria is in the midst of a civil war. Groups do not like each other. Syria is also suffering the effects of climate change. The country is desert.
https://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/03/science/earth/study-links-syria-confl...
People would still be dying, they simply wouldn't be bother the Europeans.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 7:48pm
A conversation with you is an exercise in repetition. I explicitly stated that a no fly zone is no longer an option since Obama's failure to act allowed Russia to fill the vacuum. It's highly unlikely that Russia would have entered the war if the US with coalition forces like England and France had established a no fly zone. I never advocated for Obama to arm the rebels. In fact I explicitly stated that we should take no sides in the civil war. Another straw man created by you to avoid responding to my post. Your obsession with defending Obama in the most ridiculous ways is legendary here. The US with coalition partners successfully maintained a no fly zone with no ground troops in Iraq for 11 years. It wasn't the no fly zone that caused Bush2 to invade Iraq.
Yes, people would still be dying. That's explicit with the statement, "Reduce the carnage" as opposed to, "End the carnage." You desperately need to use this site more often. The no fly zones in Iraq was extremely effective in protecting Kurds and Shites. It not only protected the original residents of these areas but millions of Kurds fled central Iraq for the Kurdish safe zones were they were not only protected but also received humanitarian aid.
The no fly zone and safe zones saved tens of thousands of lives in Iraq and could have saved more in Syria. It's much more difficult to kill civilians with ground forces and convention weapons than it is with carpet bombing with barrel bombs. Not only would lives have been saved in the country less carnage would mean less people fleeing the indiscriminate bombing. Not only is life in refugee camps brutal but such large numbers of refugees are destabilizing on other countries, much so in Jordan and also to some degree in Europe.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:39pm
Not to put too fine a point on it but the idea that Obama did nothing at all in Syria, or that doing nothing was his doctrine, is crazy. Money, training, guns and ammunition, field advisers, manned air and drone support of anti-Assad forces, political and logistical support of countries such as Saudi Arabia who are supporting Assad opponents ... ...
by A Guy Called LULU on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:17pm
Sometimes in a heated discussion I'm occasionally a victim of my own hyperbole. I'm not adverse to occasionally exaggerating to bug an opponent.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 10:13pm
I would just put in my 2 cents that the Iraqi Kurds were a unified ethnic group dominating and defending their population of their ethnic area, and with experience with unified command, and with established cooperation with US advisors.
They were capable and highly experienced at defending themselves on the ground.
The Syrian opposition contains a long list (below) of groups of varying character and leadership.
Protecting some groups and not others (Jihadist etc), would leave the US open to criticism for abandoning people and "picking favorites" when "we have no right to".
An air umbrella would require discriminating as to which group deserved protection, and what territory they held on a given day. It would be far more complicated then the Kurd situation.
It almost certainly would require US forces on the ground to hold an area if air protection began to fail, and the civilian population came under threat from ground action that the rebel force in that area could not repel.
List of Syrian rebel groups:
Allied armed groups:
by NCD on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:15pm
First off my main point was that I agreed with Kagan's historical analysis of Obama's failures in Syria not his proposed solutions going forward. The situation has changed when Russia entered the vacuum left by Obama. For many reasons mostly because Trump is president I'm not much interested in discussing the way forward. As PP posted, " Unfortunately we're back to having the wrong president to have the adults-only version of this discussion, as worse than under Bush" Trump will do what Trump will do based on what ever rumblings he feels in his gut with out any understanding of the situation and without considering the consequences beyond his short term poll numbers.
In abstract terms or if Obama had acted before Russia entered the war an air umbrella would not require any discriminating. A no fly zone and a safe zone are different things. A no fly zone simply stops the carpet bombing especially with the barrel bombs. That would have the immediate effect of dramatically reducing the carnage. A dozen planes can kill more people and cause more devastation in a few hours than a several hundred troops or even thousands on the ground with out even air support could do in a few days. Several cities could be bombed in a day causing people to flee while a ground based army would have to take one city at a time and leave troops behind to hold each city. The civil war would continue, civilian areas might still be over run and the killing would continue but much more slowly at a much reduced rate.
Safe zones are a dicier proposition and would have to be chosen carefully. It's possible that we might have faced a choice between abandoning the safe zone or ground troops. But if they were on the edges of the territory and mainly focused on protecting refugees it's likely they wouldn't even be attacked. Why would Assad attack the most fortified difficult areas, protected by American and coalition air power and risk an escalation with that coalition? Also the Kurds are the largest ethnic minority in Syria and there's a large Kurdish area that straddles the Syrian/Iraqi border. That would have been a prime area for creating a safe zone.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 9:42pm
Good points. There are or have been options to flee to refugee camps. The people still in rebel parts seem to be a hard core who do not want to abandon their homes or land for the geographical and financial impoverishment of a refugee.
Additionally, who or what local force would politically and militarily run a safe zone could be an expensive and everlasting burden and quandary. There aren't 100 rebel groups because they have great unity of vision. Think Libya.
by NCD on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 10:37pm
Yes it is more complicated than my posts imply. That's not because I don't see the complexity but because I'm trying to be brief and just lay out the ideas in broad strokes.
by ocean-kat on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 10:47pm
Or Obama could: not make a "red line" threat. But he did and he didn't back it up.
Trump was right to criticize Obama on this, I recall discussing it at the time on this site and I think I wasn't the only one who was disappointed with Obama on that. Shouldn't have called something a red line if he didn't plan to do anything about it if it was crossed.
Yes Trump does things all the time (i.e., golf) that he criticized others for. Doesn't make it right. We aren't fighting an election campaign any more, people need to stop the horse race "my guy right or wrong" crap. THAT is actually what would be an alternative to Trump support.
by artappraiser on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:42pm
Agree. At that point the Russians were not there in Syria in any number.
In the 80s war Israel took out the entire Syrian air force (82 aircraft) and radar systems in one afternoon, losing only one plane to ground fire. In 2013 it would have eliminated much of the bombing.
by NCD on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 8:46pm
This is not a my guy thing. This is a there is no good group to support thing. Obama said that Assad should go. The reality is that there was no group to support if Assad was ousted. If Obama acted we would still have a civil war with USA interference stamped on it.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 9:56pm
Well, it was a crafty setup by Russia, a cocktail party dare to Kerry, where they seemed to bail us out of the red line response by guaranteeing the removal of all chemical components from Syria. From what I recall that seemed to have happened (with delays that were more the US' fault than Syria's). Looked at in retrospect a few years later, a lot of different interpretations possible.
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 04/12/2017 - 3:16am
I read that Obama considered the events after his ¨red line¨ threat as a significant foreign policy success.
Assad had an extensive chemical armory. He´d used it .Until Obama´s red line.Not afterwards. Because he was forced to have a chemical disarmament, As a result the Syrians were spared chemical warfare thereafter,
At least until the end of Obama´s term.
Certainly there´s a cost if a major power makes a threat it can´t validate. (I don´t agree you should never do that. If that´s the last card in your hand, play it.)
Let´s review the bidding. Obama warned Assad there would be ¨consequences¨ if he made another chemical attack. He did. Kerry and Lvroi (spelling?) negotiated. Assad was forced to destroy in place or to export his chemical weapons.
What´s not to like?
Obama didn´t ¨hollow out¨ our war making capability to the extent of $50 million worth of missiles. Nor kill some number of Syrian soldiers ( and ¨collaterally ¨kill passing civilians.)
He caused the chemical warfare to stop.
Until now.
by Flavius on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 11:05pm
Here is the sequence according to the NYT
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/07/world/middleeast/werent-syrias-chemic...
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 11:23pm
BTW, a naval battle group is headed to Korea. The Donald is tweeting threats. Sleep well.
by rmrd0000 on Tue, 04/11/2017 - 11:32pm
Which to me seems like a typically sensible Times´ assessment. In other words I happen to agree.
by Flavius on Wed, 04/12/2017 - 6:58am
At this point, the only concrete thing we can do is pressure Trump to reverse his ban on accepting refugees.
Edit to add:
Slightly less than 40% of Democrats supported Obama's plan to respond to bomb Syria after a chemical attack in 2013. Essentially the same number of Democrats support Trump's missile strike in 2017. A minority of Republicans supported Obama's military strike in 2013. An overwhelming majority of Republicans support Trump's strike.
http://thedailybanter.com/2017/04/conservatives-cant-be-trusted/
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 04/12/2017 - 8:04am
Doesn't sound on his knees to me:
by artappraiser on Wed, 04/12/2017 - 9:27am
I can see why the Post got the interview
The article includes
by rmrd0000 on Wed, 04/12/2017 - 9:41am
Trump is unaware that we are already in Syria
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/04/us-syria-milit...
He also forgot that he increased the troop level in Syria
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/world/middleeast/us-troops-syria.html
by rmrd0000 on Thu, 04/13/2017 - 7:55am
Does Robert Parry consider President Obama to be a Neo-Con?
Fareed Zakaria @ WaPo, April 13
Liberals have to avoid Trump Derangement Syndrome
(my underlining):
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 2:36am
What is the policy we're asked to evaluate here? What is the long term strategy? What are the goals? Without that I can't decide if the strike was too little, appropriate, a dangerous escalation, or a completely meaningless one off that will affect nothing. It's not Trump derangement syndrome to say that everything Trump does scares me because I don't know why he did it or what he's going to do next. That's a rational position when we have a man with the immense power of the presidency who clearly doesn't have a basic understanding of the situation and hasn't given any thought to planning what to do next or what the possible consequences might be. He's like a chess player that doesn't think one move beyond his current move. A wild man flailing about might on occasion hit the right target but you know, it's purely accidental if it happens and hitting nothing or the wrong target is just as likely.
I don't know how I feel about this strike because I can't put it in context with anything he's said in the past nor use that to speculate about what he'll do in the future. This and everything he does can only be judged in the future when we see what he does over the next 4 years. I don't have a clue what he'll do, I don't thing anyone does. I don't even think Trump has any idea what he'll do over the next 4 years, next 4 months, or even the next 4 days. Like he's told us, he'll just go with his gut.
by ocean-kat on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 3:40am
I had the same issue with our intervention in Libya, etc - what was the principle, what was the precedent that other states (Russia, China, Saudi Arabia...) might follow, what were the practical long-term consequences, and how's our planning & execution.
As an exercise akin to swatting flies, I can't imagine any good coming from it.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 6:21am
Offered very much on a FWIW basis, maybe nothing, maybe I am wrong:
After doing all the reading I have done over the last couple week on all of Trump's activities, I for one am getting the strong impression that he has switched to actually paying attention to what moderate sane underlings are giving him as options on problems. And trying to understand the problems. Including, but not exclusive to, military actions. I think the failure of the health care bill was a wakeup call. A wakeup call about Bannon stoking his narcissism to the level of chaotic action that ends up getting him bad results.
I.E. He is listening to Gary Cohn, he is listening to McMaster. He has chosen to trust certain Pentagon persons, whoever they might be, we don't know, to trust to give him options to decide on that won't blow up the world.
I see a tempering or of his narcissism in his tweets, or at least a change in them. When he says things now like "I've inherited a mess, the world is a mess" it is no longer just riling up against Obama/Clinton, but he really believes it and he wants to fix it. He realizes that he doesn't have to keep doing the populist thing to gain power, that he already has that power, even if he doesn't have high approval rating. As doing things :right" with the proper advice will in the end get him the adoration he needs.
I am in now way arguing that trusting the Pentagon is always a good thing. Just that I think that despite appearances from the rapid breaking news, I strongly suspect Trump's wild card nature is cooling down. And that he's really going to start thinking strategy and plans.
There is something in the all the biography and psychological analysis I've read that syncs with this. That he is not a deep thinker, but he gets his input from dealing directly with people. So as he meets with world leaders, and selects certain people to listen to in his office and cabinet, and others to ignore, you will see more rationality and planning.
It's like he's a hyperactive kid who is finally getting some grounding and is taking his Ritalin. Still sad, and for most of us, basically not doing what we want, but it is looking like there might start to be some rhyme and reason to analyze.
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 11:23am
P,S, These are the things on international policy that are becoming clearer for me:
He is not going to be an isolationist because he wants a stable international system (the better for private parties to conduct all manner of shady deals and money laundering or whatever, dream yuge guys)
This is why he has flipped on NATO, he sees its value now. He wants the other members to show U.S. more respect, though.
He is not going to be a neo-con, as he is strongly against nation building, he wants the U.S. to be seen as a smart leader, but not as a wussy interferer always stuck in quagmires
Look for him to do Reagan and Bush Sr. type things in international policy. While he will never admit it, he will also do Obama type things
He will coddle dictators if they can make things good for U.S. business. This is because: he clearly believes it is good for the U.S. to have strong men stay in positions of power in troubled regions whenever possible. There will be few red lines.Assad using chemical weapons just happened to be one of them. North Korea is another because they are rogue, won't play international rules to keep things stable. He'd be fine with them if they didn't keep poking at the rest of the world.
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 11:54am
Donald Trump is not normal. Trump is an uninformed 70-year old man. He thought China could easily solve the North Korean problem. Trump realized after talking with Chinese President Xi that the North Korean situation was complicated. The man in charge at the White House is a buffoon We have to keep that reality in mind at all times.
http://www.vox.com/2017/4/12/15279654/trump-north-korea-xi-10-minutes
by rmrd0000 on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 12:10pm
You have a more optimistic take than I. Here's an article by Josh that dovetails nicely with what I posted. (more evidence that reporters from major news sites look to dagblog for their ideas
)
While this strike appears to be reasonable and it seems as though he took advice from McMaster or Mattis who gets good press as being moderate, sane, and knowledgeable it's too early for me to see it as a trend going forward. Like the old adage the military is a hammer and every problem looks like a nail to them. Beyond their basic predilection to strike they will mold themselves toward the presidents desires. Trump has said clearly throughout his life that when challenged he wants to hit back ten times as hard. The pentagon will attempt to give sense and reason to his most insane impulses but will likely do little to change his basic impulses.
Where is the countervailing force to the military? The state department has been sidelined, numerous high ranking experts have left and not been replaced. He's not getting nuanced sophisticated information about other nations from a diplomatic perspective. He doesn't want it, most likely because it's too complex for him to understand.
While we can possibly take some comfort that he's getting sane advice and perhaps some pushback from McMaster and others on the military end of foreign policy there seems to be almost no one on the domestic side that can give him good advice. Pruitt at the EPA is a climate denier that wants to decimate the EPA in most every way. He's not just a climate change denier he wants to roll back protections on pollutants across the board. Honestly, I think he would be happiest if he could use his perch as head of the EPA to eliminate the whole department. DeVos is a firm believer in the charter school movement despite the evidence that they rarely produce better education outcomes and more often produce worse. She not only supports charter schools but she hard core against oversight and regulation of those schools. One of her primary goals as a christian is to push for more public funding for religious charter schools.
Even if he listened to some one sane today there's no telling if he'll listen to the sane one tomorrow. Because I don't think he's capable of distinguishing the sane ones from the insane ones. I don't think he's using cynically using conspiracy theories as a tactic to further his agenda. Many people actually believe that nonsense and Trump is one of them. I don't think he can tell the difference between a story in the NYT, fox news, or Inforwars. We'll see what happens, but I'm not as confident as you seem to be that a measured response with this missile strike signifies anything about Trumps behavior going forward.
by ocean-kat on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 6:10pm
Just to be clear I wasn't sayin' we can all breathe a sigh of relief. He is still looking more unintelligent every day and still a narcissist lacking a desire to learn much at all. It's more like this: I am thinking we have more of a male version of a stereotypical dumb blond bimbo as president, and less of a wild man manipulated by evil forces.
I especially like your point about the military often being eager to please a president, trying to discern what he/she might want. I think that's a very good way of describing our military, what makes it kind of different than some others.
by artappraiser on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 11:48pm
The bimbo is much more dangerous than someone manipulated by a foreign power. Stupid means that he remains in office. Manipulation makes impeachment possible.
by rmrd0000 on Sat, 04/15/2017 - 12:18am
'New Revelations Belie Trump Claims on Syria Chemical Attack". That is the articles title from "Truthout" but unlike so much reporting that claims to see clearly while peering through the fog of war, this article does not make absolute claims or come to positive conclusions or report unproven allegations as settled fact. But, if you give the reporter any credibility it provides food for thought. Here is Wiki's entry on the author, Gareth Porter.
by A Guy Called LULU on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 12:52pm
If the opinions of two people unconnected with this incident and a young girl witness belies anything it's that you understand the usefulness of Occam's Razor. I don't like to depend on the US IC for information but they seem to have done their backgroung work here. The pilot/General who flew the gas delivery plane was being monitored by spotters long before this incidence because he was involved in many other chlorine attacks. The gas attack support group was being monitored and were traced to this incident after being observed involved in the chlorine attacks. There is video showing one of the Sarin gas delivery devices laying in the middle of a street spewing gas nowhere near any arms depot where if it had been stored it would have been in its seperate binary form.
There probably were arms depots in this town but the Russian fantisy was that the Islamic State, who are enemies of all the groups involved here, had a chemical weapons plant operating here. We're suppose to believe that the IS would locate this important facility hundreds of miles from its targets in the middle of a hotly contested enemy battleground. Occam's Razor would cut through this bs and leave the fact that the IS has Raqqa or even Mosul to use as a production site close to its targets and more secure. The IS has been identified as using sodium mustard gas but not Sarin and the earlier Sarin used was found to be a match with Assad's released stockpiles. No one has produced any verifiable evidence that anyone but Assad had or was able to produce Sarin.
I think that Assad got the message Trump sent and the pundits/experts can continue to chase their tails after the fact while most everyone else moves on.
by Peter (not verified) on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 2:12pm
Some detailed review of the earlier Seymour Hersch assertions (2013 gas attack) that mention Theodore Postol as well.
More from Kaszeta on the current one.
BTW, since it's still floating around, here's a Snopes debunking of the Daily Mail piece on Obama pushing a false flag operation in 2013 (including the fact that the Daily Mail had to pay libel charges for letting through an obvious forgery)
All the fake news that's fit to print.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 2:25pm
I've been criticized for not criticizing Trump and other Republicans as much as I criticize various Democrats - even pretty progressive ones like Keith Ellison on occasion. Basically, I think taking old-line right wingers and neo-fascist quasi-populists to task is an exercise in futility. It's kind of like slamming a piece of Limburger cheese for its bad smell.
I believe Robert Kagan falls into the Limburger category. From propagandizing on Central America to co-founding PNAC with fellow luminary Bill Kristol to beating the Iraq War drums to calling for more disastrous military interventions, he has never really deviated from the neo-con line which he drew. Rather than adding anything of value to any conversation of which he is a part, he diverts and distracts those trying to arrive at peaceful solutions to thorny international problems while aiding and comforting the death squad goons, the bomb droppers, and the missile launchers. He is what he is - a lump of nasty foul-smelling cheese - best left in a never-to-be-opened airtight container.
by HSG on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 2:12pm
Have you ever produced an op-ed or blog which was solely focused on and critical of Republicans? I don't recall any.
Republicans and their well paid mouthpieces on corporate TV never waver from attacking us lefties and Democrats, and you know what? It works.
Driftglass yesterday:
by NCD on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 2:41pm
Tea Party right-wing nuts won by attacking everybody they deemed impure including Republicans like H.W. and Jeb Bush, Eric Cantor, and John Boehner.
Here's a letter I wrote published in the Washington Post that targets only conservatives:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/discussing-the-laffer-curve-at-4...
by HSG on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 4:31pm
Very good. Stephen Moore is an example of the total bullshit that the Heritage Foundation and our right wing plutocrats ideology sits upon.
Diane Rehm used to have him on constantly to blather about anything not restricted to his ludicrous economics blather. I have made it a crusade to expose the following about his ridiculous publishing career, geared as usual to making money off the Fox news hate Radio liberal hating nitwits of the GOP base.
I always look people up on Amazon as to books they have written to discover if they are real professionals or right wing pandering grifters, these are books by Stephen Moore, see Wikipedia:
Note how in 2004 Moore was Bullish on Bush, How George Bush's Ownership Society will make America Stronger, and in 2014 - Crash Landing, How Bush Bernanke, Pelosi and Obama Wrecked the US Economy...(which was published only as an audio book as the economy was improving so well he must have pulled it)
He went from being 110% for Bush and his policies, to throwing Bush under the bus with Pelosi and Obama. He is a total bullshitter and fraud, his theories adjust to the needs of right wing politics.
Every time the NYT has anything by him or mentioning his latest cockamamie baloney I put a comment in on his unprincipled unhinged publishing history.
by NCD on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 6:44pm
Thanks NCD. I only wish the Post editor hadn't changed my spelling of "laffable" to the inarguably correct, but far less parallel to Laffer, "laughable".
by HSG on Fri, 04/14/2017 - 7:49pm
Kagan always gets a tilt in his kilt when missiles fly toward an established regime. Since the Iraq/Afghanistan invasions, there have only been the non-stop battles against non-state actors unfolding in the context of proxy wars being fought by all the states involved. This is boring for lovers of the Great Game who want to see their pieces moving across the board while knocking other pieces off of it. But the clarity of purpose Kagan craves can only be found by addressing the proxy wars directly as a matter of foreign policy. Having a powerful military involvement without such a policy leads to the situation where the U.S. becomes yet another proxy for other powers. The Kagan principle of the U.S. as the "good" empire never addresses this problem. It presumes that methodology can replace the need for strategy.
Here is a musical explanation:
by moat on Sat, 04/15/2017 - 10:06am
Good comment IMO. Yeah, Kagan gets a tilt in his kilt and his posse goose-stepping with him get a bouncy joyful strut in their glide when the bombs start falling. We have discussed the neocons before with, as I recall, an emphasis before the election, on whether or not Hillary is one [I think probably not per se] and whether her administration would be neocon in nature and action. [I believe it would have been] Hillary is mostly out of the picture right now, far more so than even Sanders, and so almost irrelevant, but the neocons are alive and well and getting “better” all the time.
Consortiumnews has another column I recommend, “Neocons Point Housebroken Trump at Iran”, by Johnathan Marshall.
Within it is a link to a Washington Post column, key to what Marshall says, and by using it the firewall normally in place at WP is bypassed and the entire piece is available.
Yeah, Kristol expects the Iranian people to throw flowers at our feet [like the Iraqis before] or, if he actually isn’t that hideously stupid and is just putting out propagandistic BS, he hopes that we are so stupid that we passively go along if and when his maniacally murderous ideas are implemented once again.
Another rather long article from Lobelog from one year ago and worth a read is here.
by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 04/15/2017 - 12:39pm