By Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight @ nytimes.com, Feb. 24, 2012
On Thursday, I warned you to be cautious about assuming that Mitt Romney had retaken the lead from Rick Santorum in Michigan until we saw some concrete evidence for it. Today, it looks like we have some. [....]
Note: he has changed his forecast pretty drastically; right now he has Mitt at 67% chance to win and Santorum at 33%; yesterday he had Santorum at 38.4% and Mitt at 36.8%.
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll shows that Sanders backers, who polls have shown were reluctant to jump over to Clinton and even flirted with supporting Trump, are coming home faster than we might have expected.