By Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight @ nytimes.com, Feb. 24, 2012
On Thursday, I warned you to be cautious about assuming that Mitt Romney had retaken the lead from Rick Santorum in Michigan until we saw some concrete evidence for it. Today, it looks like we have some. [....]
Note: he has changed his forecast pretty drastically; right now he has Mitt at 67% chance to win and Santorum at 33%; yesterday he had Santorum at 38.4% and Mitt at 36.8%.
Unemployment? Yes, 2 or 3 percent of the working-age population has dropped out of the labor force, but the headline unemployment rate is 5 percent. Wages? They've been stagnant since the turn of the century, but the average family still makes close to $70,000, more than nearly any other country in the world. Health care? Our system is a mess, but 90 percent of the country has insurance coverage. Dissatisfaction with the system? According to Gallup, even among those with incomes under $30,000, only 27 percent are dissatisfied with their personal lives. Like it or not, you don't build a revolution on top of an economy like this. Period.