I wouldn't be so sure of Obama's chances for re-election, and I'm not trying to be alarmist, though I am alarmed-:)

I remember folks saying that about Teddy's seat and, yes, she ran a bad campaign and was a terrible candidate--which won't be true in 2012--but folks were very blasé about the outcome of that race.

I think Romney is in a strong position, money and name recognition-wise. T-Paw wounded himself badly and is probably hoping for a VP slot. Huntsman is less than nowhere right now and worked for Obama. Romney can sit back, sock away tons of dough, and let that field destroy itself and pick up the VP he thinks will complement him best.

A lot of Republicans will see him as much preferable to the nuts like Bachmann, Paul, Cain, etc. And if the economy doesn't improve, folks will say, "He's a business guy; must know something about the economy; Obama had his shot and failed; let's give this guy a shot."

I'm convinced that that is as deep as it goes for many, many, many voters.

According to the polling, a significant majority of the people still blame Bush for the bad economy.  I also think Obama has effectively taken the "Weak on Terror" argument off the table for Republicans with his staunch support of the Afghanistan escalation, killing of bin Laden, and relatively painlees withdrawal from Iraq.

Finally, everything you point to as an "unforced error" plays perfectly in Obama's favor under the Beltway narrative and the general take low-information voters have on our politics.  Are Republicans really going to argue that the economy sucks because Obama didn't turn Medicare into a voucher program and cut taxes for the wealthy even further?  They've run out of bullets on their claims of better economic stewardship of the economy, as the hostility with which the public (if not the Washington establishment, which showered it with much love) greeted the Ryan budget plan shows.

Obama has positioned himself as a reasonable, moderate politician trying to get sensible measures through a hostile Congress to help the American people.  But no matter how far he has been willing to compromise, the Republicans have thwarted him at every turn.  If their 2012 campaign is ran half as effectively as the one they ran in 2008, it's Obama in a walk.

[This is, of course, my take on the competing narratives in the campaign, not my personal opinion on the effectiveness or desirability of any of the policy choices he has made].

I think that's right. But you have to balance that against the truism that poll-based election predictions 17 months out should be taken with a grain of salt.

There are still a few rounds of legitimate political action before final impressions are set. That's why if folks want to see anything like what they want to see ... now is the time to pressure Obama's ass, not kiss it.