The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    My Snowden prediction

    By erica20 on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 3:43pm |

    What the heck, I don't care if I'm wrong. So fwiw, here's my prediction of what will happen in the Snowden case. (As long as Greenwald/Poitras don't release further information without Snowden's permission, in which case all bets are off.)

    Snowden has made his main revelation, which is that spying happens, and that we need greater scrutiny both of the overall laws (congressional oversight) and of the details (better technical protection and encryption of data to which admins do have access). No matter  how everybody feels about it, it's done, and that conversation is moving forward.

    He's also made a revelation about the US and China (and although I personally don't think of it as big news) it has had the desired public relations effect of getting people in Hong Kong all riled up about US spying and on his side, keeping him in the media and in a more or less positive light.

    I suspect that deep down, Snowden hopes that the Chinese will not like him so much that they decide to invite him to Beijing (out of the frying pan and into the fire!) but he certainly doesn't want to annoy them, either. So he's walking a fine line there, but as long as he doesn't have to leave Hong Kong, it's all good for him.

    Here's the actual prediction part: if this goes on long enough for the dust to settle, (meaning no assassination, suicide or rendering,) US officials will discover that extraditing and trying Snowden is not in its interest, for fear of sparking more revelations and a political firestorm at home. The Chinese will have just as strong an interest in making sure Snowden stays quiet. 

    So, Snowden will get his spot in Iceland, in return for a promise of no more revelations, no political statements, and probably something about restrictions on his job choice and internet usage. The US govt will eventually settle, and family and friends will be allowed to visit him. That's my prediction.

    Apropos of nothing, one of the few Heinlein novels that I managed to read all the way through was The Moon is a Harsh Mistress, which sort of turns out the same way.....

    Comments

    It does not sound to me like Snowden is financially independent. You think he has enough supporters willing to bankroll even after he stops being headline news?

    Aside: does anyone else think of Catch-22 every time they type Snowden?

    où sont les neiges d’antan?

     


    by EmmaZahn on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 4:35pm

    I do now!


    by Michael Maiello on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 5:33pm

    I don't think Snowden is financially independent, although who knows, he might have some cash or goods tucked away somewhere. Unless he writes a book or licenses the rights to his story for a major film, he'll never be rich, and depending on how it goes for him, he might end up poor.

    But Julian Assange, a far less likeable character than Snowden, hasn't starved to death, so I figure somebody somewhere will take Snowden under their wing. There are a lot of wealthy but not very interesting people out there in the world who might enjoy the notoriety of having a whistleblower for a friend.

    Snowden may not relish life as the international equivalent of Kato Kaelin, the permanent house guest, but hey, he wanted to make a sacrifice.


    by erica20 on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 6:23pm

    My guess was going to be that the U.S. does something, probably in Syria, that pisses off Putin, so he transports Snowden to Iceland because, well, he can.


    by Michael Maiello on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 5:34pm

    I'd love to be there for the weekend they spend walking shirtless on the Icelandic glaciers, drinking vodka and trading anecdotes. Of course, by Sunday afternoon they'd probably be dying to get rid of each other (not literally, of course).


    by erica20 on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 6:29pm

    I would bet that Snowden's choice for a long turn stay over between Iceland and Hong Kong would be....Da dum!...Hong Kong in an instant. I know mine would be.

    The professor in my Bloggingheads link at In the News says he could get work easily and a big international trade center with people from everywhere in the world would offer a better chance for an interesting and happy expatriate life to most people, I would think.

    No offense, Iceland, I don't actually know anything about you except for your chilly name.


    by A Guy Called LULU on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 8:40pm

    I seem to recall that it's Singapore, and not Hong Kong, that is quite popular with some young expat technie folk for the type of atmosphere you describe.


    by artappraiser on Thu, 06/20/2013 - 10:24pm

    Iceland has blondes...

     


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/22/2013 - 3:50pm

    Wow, dude, asian has a much higher porn search rating than blonde. Especially among young tech types and gamers. I used to respect you as an expert in this area but now, I just don't know. Next thing you'll be telling us he should go to Mexico for the high quality pot.


    by ocean-kat on Sat, 06/22/2013 - 4:41pm

    Which brings to mind an amusing tale, showing just how far back the Mexican thing goes...Sometime in the late 60s, having grown frustrated with street prices (oh for the days of the $10 "lid", where "lid"=Oz...) I arranged with and importer of fine drugs to take a front from me of $875, with the proviso that it turn into 5 bricks (back in the day when a brick was a true 33-34 oz.)  of what we then, in our innocence, called Acapulco Gold.

     

    Well, this story does not end with the heartbreak that you are, no doubt, already anticipating.

     

    In fact, this man of honor was good as his word, and there I was, with felony quantities of weed in the middle of New York City.

     

    Unfazed, but still cautious, I arranged with my friendly Chase Manhattan Banker to hold my stash, in what was called a safe deposit "drawer"--it was way too big for a mere "box."

     

    Well, here the story turns, if not dark, at least a little rural. (as in compost...)

     

    On my first visit to re-up (this was all for personal use, mind you...) which was maybe a  month after making the "deposit", the attendant takes my key, and coupled with his, removes and  brings me the box which was...wait for it...about 120 degrees f.

     

    Uh-oh.

     

    This, I thought, is certain to excite curiosity, if not scrutiny.

     

    I immediately removed the now slightly moldy but still smokeable weed.

     

    So not all the gold in a Chase Manhattan safe deposit vault is the kind you wear.

     

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    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/22/2013 - 6:26pm

    That professor in my Blogginheads seems disconnected from reality. Snowden could 'get work easily'?  A 'big international trade center' might hire him? While he lives a 'happy expatriate life'? Sad anyone would believe that fantasy.

    Snowden resume:

    1. Not a whistleblower but a law breaker, called a traitor by members of Congress,  wanted now or soon by the US government.

    2. Has loyalty only to himself and his own idea of morality - give him a terminal on your 'big international trade center computer'? Human resources is going to hire such a guy? I'm sure he'll have great referrals from Booz Allen. Recent job history, spills the beans on you and runs.

    3. Hire him where he can hack into not only every digital document and email on your servers, but every company system you do business with? (or try to do business when they fire you)

    4. Yes he could get a job, maybe with the Russian mob or that Chinese hacking outfit.

    I don't even think an NGO doing aid in a dengue fever ridden part of Africa would hire the guy.  Even to send him into the bush to distribute medical aid. They have reputations too. He might hack into some government computer system, get incensed at fraud or whatever he found, and get the aid group kicked out of the country.

    Snowden is a guy who will always be looking over his shoulder until caught, on the run, he will be used politically by any government that can use him, for as long as they can use him, for politics and nothing else. Then they will drop him in a Beijing minute.

    And unlike Assange, he is an American citizen, he has openly confessed to what he did, and he seems to have broken US law, and is not eligible for whistleblower protection.


    by NCD on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 12:06pm

    Simon Young (The University of Hong Kong)    very likely is disconnected from your reality and also from mine, but I expect that he is more connected to the reality of Hong Kong than either of us will ever be. I give him the beneifit of the doubt on his claim that Snowden, who is popular in Hong Kong, could get work there.

     Just curious, did you listen to the interview?

    [Sorry about the weird capitalization of every first letter. My composition program, Abiword, started doing it and I cannot figure out why or how to correct it above although it quit doing it here]


    by A Guy Called LULU on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 12:47pm

    Read the transcript. Reality is he was charged with espionage today.


    by NCD on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 9:43pm

    It is not important to me whether or not Professor Young is correct that Snowden could get a job in Hong Kong working in the computer industry. I passed on that claim by Young as part of why I thought Snowden would prefer there to life in Iceland. Young seemed very credible to me, he lives in Hong Cong, he knows their laws. he has been following the case closely, he has an indication of the publics view of Snowden, and he did not seem to have any personal agenda. If given the chance to bet about whether Young is correct about his claim or else bet on your contradictory view, I would bet on Young. There are bound to be areas within your sphere of knowledge and outside of Young’s where I would bet on you.
     Everything he said was predicated on the assumption that the U.S. would indict Snowden and nothing he said was claimed as any kind of absolute.
     Below in your next comment you suggest that an Air Force jet could force down Snowden’s chartered jet. Now, just imagine, you are the F-16 pilot alongside that civilian plane flagged probably by Iceland, but surely not the U.S,  you are far out over open water, and when you make radio contact and instruct the pilot, he shoots you the finger. What do you do now?


    by A Guy Called LULU on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 11:18pm

    A combat jet like and F4 Phantom weighs over 30 tons a multiengine Lear jet  6-7 tons. With three military jets in front and to the side, the civilian pilot has little choice but to obey commands given. It's like a Prius surrounded by Mack trucks.

    Case in point, as a former pilot I used to read Flying magazine, there was a case in the ADIZ east coast in the 80's where an Air Force Phantom F4 was set to identify and intercept a multi-engine civilian aircraft coming into US airspace with no flight plan.

    The civilian aircraft was destroyed when it was accidentally hit and ingested into the Phantoms's engines in clouds, causing the F4 some engine damage and a fuel leak. Bits of the civilian aircraft and human remains were found in one of the Phantom's engines when it returned to base. I assume the military pilot was sent for more training! There were no survivors in the civilian jet.


    by NCD on Sat, 06/22/2013 - 5:04pm

    I was aware that an Airforce fighter jet could destroy anything that flies and in the case of unarmed civilian planes it would be quite easy, but I would expect them to use old fashioned machine guns or rockets. I really doubt though that they would try to do it by inhaling the smaller craft considering that a seagull going through a jet engine can destroy it and in quite a few cases has done so.

    The idea of the fuselage of a multi-engine aircraft, which is very much larger than the intake of a Phantom fighter jet, going through an F-4's engine, the fuselage being the part that the humans occupy, parts of which remained in the F-4's engine, and the F-4 then flying home, is quite surprising to say the least.
    But, the thing is, unless they employ a tractor beam and drag Snowden's plane to where they choose, they would have to either destroy it, one way or another, or let it go its own way.


    by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 06/22/2013 - 10:06pm

    I can't imagine he'd be allowed to stay on in Hong Kong and just get a job in technology. I think he'll have to content himself with life as a simple sheep farmer in a thinly-populated nation. Who goes on Friday nights to a bar where everybody knows your name....


    by erica20 on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 5:23pm

    The Obama administration has been extremely harsh in dealing with leaks, worse than Bush. So its hard for me to see them being so laid back about such a substantial leak as Snowden's

    But as far as Snowden getting a spot in Iceland, it seems you may be right.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/20/edward-snowden-iceland_n_347517...

    An Icelandic businessman linked to WikiLeaks said he has readied a private plane to take Edward Snowden, the former National Security Agency contractor who exposed secret U.S. surveillance programmes, to Iceland if the government grants him asylum.

    "We have made everything ready at our end now we only have to wait for confirmation from the (Icelandic) Interior Ministry," Olafur Vignir Sigurvinsson told Reuters. He is a director of DataCell, a company which processed payments for WikiLeaks.

    "A private jet is in place in China and we could fly Snowden over tomorrow if we get positive reaction from the Interior Ministry. We need to get confirmation of asylum and that he will not be extradited to the U.S.


    by ocean-kat on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 12:57am

    If Hong Kong lets him go and Iceland accepts an American citizens charged with espionage, the private jet could be forced to land by the USAF. It's a long flight back to Iceland.


    by NCD on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 9:59pm

    It will be interesting to see how it plays out. I kind of think that nothing big will happen for awhile. US has 60 days to file the indictment and then the whole extradition thing starts.

    (Hong Kong's extradition treaty with the US has an exception for political offenses.)

     


    by erica20 on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 11:09pm

    If the Iceland story is true, I wonder if Snowden will renounce his US citizenship.


    by rmrd0000 on Fri, 06/21/2013 - 7:18am

    Nancy Pelosi got booed at netroots Nation because of her comments about Snowden. Meanwhile Snowden appears to be in Moscow.


    by rmrd0000 on Sun, 06/23/2013 - 9:45am

    Wikileaks is providing legal assistance.


    by rmrd0000 on Sun, 06/23/2013 - 10:01am