The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    In which V. Putin alters my Snowden prediction

    By erica20 on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 1:41pm |

    In an earlier comment I referred to Julian Assange as an unfortunate choice of prom date for Ed Snowden.

    Now, Snowden's choice of Moscow as a transit point has cast him into an odious threesome including Vladimir Putin of Russia. There are quite a few possibilites for what could happen now. So I have to alter my prediction of a drawn-out flurry of diplomacy ending in a quiet life in Iceland which does not feature a career in technology. The new possibilities are as follows:

    There is some chance that Putin will not meddle with Snowden's transit to wherever he's headed. (The necessity of flying over US or allied airspace may be what derailed the Cuba flight rather than any aspect of being in Moscow.) For geographic and diplomatic reasons, my money is still on Iceland, even though there have been discussions with Ecuador.

    However--and this is a big however--the reality is that Putin is a large and particularly brutal cat, and Ed Snowden is a very small mouse indeed. Ultimately, Putin's interests lie in toying with Snowden for awhile while publicly needling the US about surveillance, and finally playing the role of global leader and returning Snowden to the US, sporting a very large black eye as well as other unspecified injuries and without his computer files. My sense is that there's a very good chance it will come out this way.

    There is also a possibility that Snowden will not make it out of Russia alive. I give this one a strong outside chance, because in this scenario, all the nations involved get to be themselves. The Chinese stayed out of it by sending Snowden along, Putin reinforces his image as an unpredictable enforcer, and the US maintains the moral high ground by saying that if Snowden had only returned home to face the rule of law, he would still be alive today, though perhaps in prison. (And the US would find ways to thank the Chinese and Russians for taking care of what promised to be a real headache for everyone.)

    An outlier scenario is that the US may end up "rescuing" Snowden from Putin's clutches--a scenario that would be both entertaining and entirely trumped up, but would fall into the realm of the predictable improvisation that is global diplomacy.

    As all this plays out, surveillance is still the real story here, and Snowden's progress or lack thereof is more of a primer on creative use of immigration regulations. But if I were Ed Snowden's parents, I'd be more worried about his safety with each moment he spends in Russia.

    (I modified this piece for clarity after intitial publication.)

     

     

    Comments

    I don't think Putin will kill Snowden nor seriously rough him up. He will get as much information and pr mileage as he can from the situation then will simply send Snowden back maybe ostensibly in exchange for someone or something but probably through rendition. The last thing I would expect from Putin would be to encourage organizations like WikiLeaks or Anonymous, stateless actors who just happen to practice a kinder, gentler vigilantism than Al-Qaeda.

     


    by EmmaZahn on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 2:32pm

    I agree, that's a very likely scenario, and I hope it comes across in what I wrote that it's a strong possiblity. Putin is a global leader, and whatever his posturing, it seems reasonable at the end of the day that he will act according to the unwritten rules of the highest-status club to which he can claim membership. This would mean he'll send Snowden back to the US.


    by erica20 on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 3:21pm

    The last thing I would expect from Putin would be to encourage organizations like WikiLeaks or Anonymous

    Surprise,

    Julian Assange was given a TV talk show on the state-supported Russia Today network, which ran quite a few episodes from April to July 2012, with a proud announcement of the show in January, 2012.

    From the Wikipedia link:

    The creation of Russia Today was a part of a larger propaganda effort by the Kremlin intended to improve the image of Russia abroad.[16] RT was conceived by former media minister Mikhail Lesin,[17] and Vladimir Putin’s press spokesperson Aleksei Gromov.[18] .......

    Putin has prohibited funding for Russia Today from being reduced as of October 30, 2012.[74]


    by artappraiser on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 3:31pm

    P.S. I noticed that according to former Wikileaks employee James Ball's May 30, 2013 essay for The Daily Beast,  Assange may have connections with some in Russian security services through his buddy Israel Shamir:

    The reason I quit was because of a friend of Julian’s whose activities were unstomachable and unforgivable. That man was Israel Shamir. Shamir is an anti-Semitic writer, a supporter of the dictator of Belarus, and a man with ties and friends in Russian security services. He and Julian—unknown to us—had been in friendly contact for years. It was a friendship that would have serious consequences.

    Introduced to WikiLeaks staff and supporters under a false name, Shamir was given direct access to more than 90,000 of the U.S. Embassy cables, covering Russia, all of Eastern Europe, parts of the Middle East, and Israel. This was, for quite some time, denied by WikiLeaks. But that’s never a denial I’ve found convincing: the reason I know he has them is that I gave them to him, at Assange’s orders, not knowing who he was.

    Why did this prove to be a grave mistake? Not just for Shamir’s views, which are easy to Google, but for what he did next. The first hints of trouble came through contacts from various Putin-influenced Russian media outlets. A pro-Putin outlet got in touch to say Shamir had been asking for $10,000 for access to the cables. He was selling the material we were working to give away free, to responsible outlets.

    Worse was to come. The NGO Index on Censorship sent a string of questions and some photographic evidence, suggesting Shamir had given the cables to Alexander Lukashenko of Belarus, Europe’s last dictator. Shamir had written a pro-Belarus article, shortly before photos emerged of him leaving the interior ministry. The day after, Belarus’s dictator gave a speech saying he was establishing a WikiLeaks for Belarus, citing some stories and information appearing in the genuine (and then unpublished) cables.

    Assange refused and blocked any attempts at investigation, and released public statements that were simply untrue.

    Disturbingly, Assange seems to have a personal motivation for staying friendly with Shamir. Shamir’s son, Johannes Wahlstrom, is apparently being called as one of Assange’s defense witnesses in his Swedish trial. That’s not the only time self has come before principle.

    But I should say that so far I don't see any evidence that Putin wants to use Snowden as a pawn. That may change.


    by artappraiser on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 3:41pm

    Here is Alessandra Stanley's description of the network in her NYT review of the first show, The Prisoner as Talk Show Host: Julian Assange Starts Talk Show on Russian TV, an interview with Nasrallah:

    Mr. Assange says the theme of his half-hour show on RT is “the world tomorrow.” But there is something almost atavistic about the outlet he chose. RT, first known as Russia Today, is an English-language news network created by the Russian leader Vladimir V. Putin in 2005 to promote the Kremlin line abroad. (It also broadcasts in Spanish and Arabic.) It’s like the Voice of America, only with more money and a zesty anti-American slant. A few correspondents can sound at times like Boris and Natasha of “Rocky & Bullwinkle” fame. Basically, it’s an improbable platform for a man who poses as a radical left-wing whistleblower and free-speech frondeur battling the superpowers that be.

    I see Putin's approach this way: anyone that can offer alternatives to the American vision will always be considered for possible utility. Just no complaining about the Putin vision for Russia and the world.


    by artappraiser on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 3:54pm

    I guess if Assange wants to go to war, he has to do it with the army he has. ;^)  


    by erica20 on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 4:52pm

    clue here:

    http://dagblog.com/link/snowden-has-friend-kremlin-16931#comment-179984


    by artappraiser on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 4:51pm

    One has to wonder how smart or effective an organization is, like the NSA, that apparently put a contract high school dropout in charge of it's complete IT system from day one of his employment. With management so loose as to be a joke, I would guess 99.99% of this PRISM stuff in the Utah desert is probably about as important to national security, or as big a threat to privacy, as your kids latest X-Box.

    I would guess 90% of the program details are already known by the Russians and Chinese, and they are just seeking details on the last 10%.


    by NCD on Tue, 06/25/2013 - 7:46pm

    The same could be asked about Bradley Manning. 


    by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:39am

    As I said elsewhere, Assange took Manning for all he could get, the chopper massacre main objective as to war crimes, and then 1/2 million extraneous docs Manning never even read.  

    Being a member of the military Manning's fate was then sealed, and Assange could care less about 'collateral damage' to the guy's life, the guy he essentially used up and threw away.


    by NCD on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:38pm

    Those "extraneous docs" led to the Arab Spring, something Manning no doubt is proud of. Here's Assange calling Manning a "political prisoner" in 2010. Even now Assange is speaking out for Manning at his trial from his room in the Ecuadorian embassy. Why exactly you think Assange "could care less" about the guy's life or that he "threw away" you don't say. Mostly because it's just hater bullshit - you have a hard-on for these guys in your own security-scold way, and anything's worth making up to fit that need.


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:03pm

    It's not 'hater bullshit'. Assange/Greenwald = users, that is the stark reality, which you can't face or admit.

    Assange used Manning and threw him away.

    Snowden is Assange/Greenwald's current road kill.

    The leakers should never have dealt with Assange or Greenwald.

    Assange and Greenwald do no give a crap about the lives or personal goals of Manning or Snowden as to exposing crimes in the Iraq War (chopper video did that by itself), or carefully and tactfully informing the nation on NSA surveillance and causing a serious national dialog to control it, while leaving Snowden with a chance for a normal life when it's over.

    The leakers were exploited for all they were worth, and drained of all they could provide in secrets. Tossed aside to military justice, or with Snowden, naifs from Wikileaks help to send him into oblivion in a foreign land.

    Now Manning is the architect of the Arab Spring? Not just that but he is 'proud' that through stuff he never read, supposedly started the Arab Spring?

    Maybe if Manning gets loose and hooks up with Assange and Greenwald they can stop the Syrian war?

    Have a nice day dude.


    by NCD on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:59pm

    "Carefully and tactfully?" Feel free to raise your voice in protest: just be quiet about it. Wow.


    by acanuck on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:09pm

    The sticking point may be releasing classified data with specific IP addresses that would seen and read by a foreign government. Snowden has information that he can decide when to unleash. This does not seem to be an upgrade from PRISM. The data release or collection is not in the hands of the public with either system.

     


    by rmrd0000 on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:35pm

    I have to admire your diligence  NCD, you have hammered on nearly  every negative meme available on this issue. Few if any of these attacks hold up under scrutiny but that is not important, the good old USA must regain the high ground.

    I enjoy the fact that few people are buying the BS you and others are spouting.especially the young and including those nefarious high school dropouts. Did you know that some of them are actually quite smart and decided that our corporate school systems could be bypassed as a waste of time.

    While you view Snowden as a dropout and Greenwald/Assange as greedy users much of the world views them in a more positive light and are laughing at the hypocrisy and bumbling of the US.


    by Peter (not verified) on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 5:41pm

    You don't get out much, do you, dude?

    Yeah, Arab Spring - was in the papers, not sure how you missed it, but were probably spending your time interrogating crickets in the basement, keeping us safe and all.

    Some commentators have credited Manning’s leak with providing a spark for the revolutions that toppled the governments of Egypt and Tunisia and triggered uprisings in Bahrain, Libya, and Yemen, collectively known as the Arab Spring. Files leaked by Manning disclosed a secret relationship between the U.S. government and President Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen, to allow drone strikes inside the country where the United States was not in a declared war. Another cable detailed the private investments and holdings of the Tunisian ruling family.

    Still other files revealed secret talks between Arab governments and Israel; the lavish spending habits of Muammar Gaddafi’s family; and suspicions from the U.S. ambassador to Georgia that Russia’s intelligence services directed a secret war in the country for much of the last decade.

    Plus Qaddafi's "voluptuous blonde nurse", though not that voluptuous by Berlusconi standards.


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 6:09pm

    What are you smoking, erica? There is zero incentive, and so zero chance, that Putin will order Snowden "back|" to the U.S. If there were ever a smidgen of a chance, that evaporated when John Kerry blustered about unspecified "consequences" of not bowing to America's will. Kerry has since dialed it back a bit, but Putin does not take kindly to threats. Snowden also won't end up in Iceland (too vulnerable to U.S. pressure). Ecuador, Cuba and even Russia are likelier candidates.


    by acanuck on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:14pm

    There was some talk of a trade for a convicted Russian arms dealer in a US prison. Not likely but out there.


    by NCD on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 1:40pm

    There's "some talk" about lots of stuff, NCD.


    by acanuck on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 3:41pm

    Not smoking....my opinion is that Putin would hand over Snowden in a heartbeat if the US "said the magic word." But like a kid bullying another kid, Putin will make the US guess about what the "magic word" might be. The US has tried bellicosity to no avail, and now is gingerly saying "please." Expect the usual escalation to "pretty please with sugar on top."

    My guess is that the magic word will turn out to be something bizarre like "those girls from Pussy Riot just don't understand what a great leader you are." And it's just a question of whether the US is willing to say it in return for delivery of what even Putin says is a very small fish.


    by erica20 on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:10pm

    Putin holds all the cards, and Russians back him. Not gonna happen.


    by acanuck on Wed, 06/26/2013 - 4:20pm