The big night is almost here and everyone is wondering: Will they go ridiculously overboard in stimulating the economy or will the show be more circumspect in an acknowledgement that average America isn't buying up Harry Winston diamonds like we used to?

I'll leave these important questions to others while I go out on a (short) limb and make some predictions, starting with Best Picture. I'll do my best to get to the other categories as well, but that leaves me with 8 movies to see in two weeks, so no promises.

First on the list is The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, or as I like to call it The Curious Case of How One Cannot Recover Three Lost Hours of One's Life. Seriously, who thought it was a good idea to turn a short story into a three-hour movie? Benjamin Button is boring. I saw it only a week ago and I already can't remember if it was about anything other than a boy born old who gets young and then dies. It might have been interesting if the filmmakers had ruminated a bit on why this had happened. But all we get in the way of explanation is a backwards clock. The affected parties--the girlfriend, the biological father, the adoptive mother, and Benjamin himself--seem rather unfazed that he is a freak of nature. Speaking of losing three hours of one's life, if this movie wins, I'm going to feel that way again when the Oscars is over.

Milk, another bio-pic that I wasn't particularly interested in seeing, turned out to have me on the edge of my seat. I knew how it ultimately would end, but I was hazy on the details. It's an inspiring story and a lesson in how the enemies of equality have employed the same arguments over and over in their fight against what is right. I don't think I'll ruin anything for you if I mention that it is the side fighting for equal rights that keeps gaining ground. I heard Sean Penn was in this movie, but he doesn't appear onscreen. Okay, he does. But he is so lost in the character of Harvey Milk that you might not recognize him. Milk is a great film that shouldn't win the Best Picture award. It might though, if enough Academy members want to send a great big, gift-wrapped middle finger to Utah.

Since I heard The Reader was coming to the screen, I'd had mixed feelings. I'm usually disappointed when dramas are adapted. The book is always so much better, if only because there is so much more time to internalize the thoughts and feelings of the characters. In this case, the book left me disturbed and amazed. And to my delight, the movie did exactly the same. It's the story of a 15-year old boy who has his first affair with a woman at least twice his age and of the impact that affair has on his life as he later learns more about his first love. I can't recommend the movie highly enough. If it wins, it will be well deserved. But I don't think it will win.

Much has already been written about Slumdog Millionaire. Our own Genghis has a great review. I don't have too much of substance to add to the praise already being heaped on the movie. You might think that Slumdog would be depressing, since after all it is about a boy who is born into abject poverty. There are depressing moments, sure. But the story unfolds in a creative and colorful way, with a sort of MTV editing that gives it edge without making it seem like you're watching a bad music video. I predict that Slumdog Millionaire will win best picture because it is a feel-good movie in a time when the whole world desparately needs to feel good. But that is not to say that the win will be undeserved. The movie is a must-see.

Doubt is a movie that should have been on this list. The acting in Doubt is of such high caliber that Viola Davis got a Best Supporting Actress nomination for appearing in just one scene. In fact, all four main actors in the movie are nominated. Slumdog would still be my choice to win but Doubt's ommission is a glaring oversight.