Wolraich: Obama at the Gates of... Gates
Dr. C: In Praise of Writing Binges
Maiello: Gatsby Doesn't Grate
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Wolraich: Obama at the Gates of... Gates Dr. C: In Praise of Writing Binges Maiello: Gatsby Doesn't Grate |
Blowing |
Monmouth University has a new poll on the Delaware Senate and Congressional races, and it's painful for the Republicans, especially for Senate nominee Christine O'Donnell. The top line: Chris Coons is leading O'Donnell 57% to 38%. O'Donnell has a grisly 58% disapproval rating with only 31% favorable, and Delaware voters consider her unqualified for the Senate by a margin of 57% to 35%. That's pretty painful.
Meanwhile, Coons is considered qualified (64% to 25%)and has a 50% approval rating with 33% disapproving. Those numbers aren't eye-poppingly good, and suggest that Coons may still be a relatively unknown commodity with voters, but O'Donnell's higher visibility is obviously not helping her.
What's most surprising though is the cross-tabs. Because for all the talk about the new wave of conservative Republican women, O'Donnell's numbers with female voters are abominably weak. She's not just losing women; she's losing because of women.
Only 22% of women polled view O'Donnell favorably. A landslide 68% view her unfavorably. Only 25% of women voters in Delaware consider O'Donnell qualified, and 67% do not. (Among men, O'Donnell has a -10% approval rating, and men come closer to an even split on her qualifications, with 44% calling her qualified and 48% not. Bad numbers, but not the horror show that the rest of O'Donnell's polling is.)
In fact, if only men held the franchise, this poll would give Christine O'Donnell a tiny, statistically meaningless lead: she's winning men 48% to 46%. It's women, splitting 68% for Coons and only 27% for O'Donnell, who turn the race into a 19-point blowout.
Some of this, of course, is about the fact that women skew Democratic and men Republican. But it also raises the question, again, of which voters the new crop of Palinite female characters candidates are designed to appeal to.
The Palin model, of which O'Donnell is only this year's most prominent update, is young, conservative, and attractive, but also typically weak on credentials and experience, openly anti-intellectual, and conspicuously reliant on faith and emotion in decision making. What's amazing about such candidates is that they so clearly fit misogynist stereotypes: strong hearts and weak heads, poor in book learning and logic but apt to be overwhelmed by the strong tides of their feminine feelings. I find the attempt to turn such a negative stereotype into a positive qualification for high office absolutely bizarre.
What's even more bizarre, but perhaps illuminating, is that men, or at least a plurality of men registered to vote, tend to view such female candidates as qualified, while other women do not. But it makes sense. If you take women seriously, it's obvious that most of these specific women are not serious in the least. Everybody knows dozens of women, just in their own zip code, who would make better senators than Christine O'Donnell would. It's only if you expect nothing of women that such women could meet your expectations.
If think of women as adult members of the human race, these candidacies are not simply jokes, but insults. But if you prefer to imagine women as passionate, feisty, emotional, and not terribly smart, Sarah Palin and Christine O'Donnell are just the gals for you.
By Aamer Madhani, USA Today, May 19, 2013
President Obama on Sunday told the graduating class at Morehouse College, the country's pre-eminent historically black college, there is "no time for excuses" for this generation of African-American men and that it was time for their generation to step up professionally and in their personal lives.
[....] The president connected his own path to the White House to the work of King and other African-American leaders of that generation. But Obama also conceded that at times as a young man he wrongly blamed his own failings "as just another example of the world trying to keep a black man down."
"We've got no time for excuses — not because the bitter legacies...
Prompted by Peggy Noonan's claim in The Wall Street Journal that "we are in the midst of the worst Washington scandal since Watergate," Andrew Sullivan steps forward to defend Pres. Obama's honor. "Can she actually believe this?," he asks incredulously.
By Julian Pecquet, The Hill, May 18, 2013
Congress is ramping up a new round of sanctions against Iran, ignoring the Obama administration's request to let diplomacy run its course.
In back-to-back hearings this week, lawmakers on key House and Senate panels put the State and Treasury departments on notice that their patience is wearing thin after the latest round of talks last month failed to produce a deal. Both chambers have legislative efforts in the works – the House foreign affairs panel will vote next week – but the administration is warning against any moves that could undermine international support for the existing sanctions against Iran's alleged nuclear weapons program [....]
By Carl Zimmer, New York Times/Science, May 16/17, 2013
An article that summarizes the recent work of Ya-Ping Zhang, a geneticist at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who has led an international network of scientists who have compared pieces of DNA from different canines which is pointing to the theory that dogs domesticated themselves.
But the article's message is not just what it first appears to be. When you get to the concluding paragraphs there are some real though provokers:
[....] SLC6A4 may have played a crucial part in this change, because serotonin influences aggression.
To test these ideas,...
By Neha Paliwal, Passport @ ForeignPolicy.com, May 17, 2013
On Friday, chaotic clashes broke out in Georgia as an angry mob -- comprised mainly of young men but also including robed priests and some women -- descended on a gay rights rally commemorating International Day Against Homophobia. A day earlier, the head of the Georgian Orthodox Church had demanded that authorities stop the rally, calling it a "violation of the majority's right."
According to EurasiaNet, the mob, which numbered...
I suspect that a lot of these "Made In Palin, Alaska" candidates exist as cannon fodder or future favor givers. O'Donnell runs and loses but she riles up a minority of useful idiots that Palin can sell books and action figures to later. Everybody thinks Palin is building a political movement but she's not. She's building an audience because she's a celebrity, not a politician. Whether or not she runs for president in 2012 will be about whether or not such a run serves her celebrity.
I've been kicking this horse for a while, but there is a political purpose behind nominating right-wing candidates even when they're unelectable--knocking out the moderate Republicans. The tactic may seem counterproductive, but conservative hardliners have been doing the same thing every election since the 1970s, starting with Paul Weyrich and Richard Viguerie. Look at how much money the Club for Growth spends in the primaries.
In short, it's about control of the GOP. And it has been working. Conservatives used to be a minority in the party, which was controlled by moderates. After a series of purges, conservative leaders finally wrested control in the early 1990s, starting with Gingrich and Lott. Now moderates are all but instinct. And O'Donnell is a bit player in another round of purges.
PS Sorry Doctor, this is slightly off-topic, I know.
I think in the long term it is a losing strategy for them, but one that damages the country.
I think the reason more men think Palin or O'Donnell are qualified is that more men are politically conservative. In Arizona, Jan Brewer does better with men by far. Because more women are Democrats, and more men are Republican here.
It's amazing that we've come so far in overcoming the stigmatization of witchcraft, that a witch can have approval ratings in the 30s. I think it's a victory for our civil liberties, not to mention the natural synergy between Halloween and Election Day in Delaware.
Which candidate is best for Delaware? Which indeed.
What I really love about ODonnell and Palin is that they make me feel like a genius. What bothers me about them is that some people think that their ignorance is a sign of great leadership. Why would anyone want a leader who obviously has not thought any deeper than, for example: "Which faith is the one for me? Hmmm....Well, not THAT one -- no meatballs!"
Leaders should both understand people and be smart. Bill Clinton at his best is very much like that.
I think you're right, Articleman, that part of the discrepancy is that more conservatives are men. I tried to acknowledge that in the origina post. On the other hand, 38% is a huge swing. There's a big difference between 44 to 48 among men and 25 to 67 among women ... the correlation between gender and conservatism would have to be enormous to explain such a big swing by itself.
I also think that the fact that conservatives are mostly men explains a lot about the appeal of the conservative female candidates, and the conservative female pundits before them. They serve important psychological roles for conservative male voters, not least by serving as validators. They are valuable as public figures precisely because conservative women are relatively rare in the general population.
Genghis is also right about the general strategy of running fringe conservatives against moderate Republicans. That's certainly the dynamic in the O'Donnell-Castle primary. But I think something is going on with the female conservative fringe candidates that isn't going on with people like Carl Paladino (another deeply self-destructive fringe candidate who should never have been nominated). The gender perceptions work differently.
And destor, I think you're right that Palin is looking for brand extenders more than viable political candidates. I'd tweak your formulation slightly by saying that Palin is not running for President, but is a celebrity in the business of marketing herself as a Presidential candidate. I blogged about a year ago that as soon as Palin can't market herself as a potential national candidate (because she doesn't run or because she comes in fourth in New Hampshire) her media profile and her money-making opportunities will go sharply downhill.
Even a conservative man should recognize that these women are ill prepared to run the country. I suspect that in addition to letting their libidos run wild, the men who prefer these women figure that a) they're better than the "librul" alternative and b) the women can be controlled by their male colleagues so it doesn't really matter what their qualifications are.
So you think it's another sort of sexism at play?
You might be right, Ami, but I have an alternate theory. The conservative officeholders who are men probably think that they can control these women if and when they achieve office, but I don't think the average voter thinks that deeply about the ins and outs of congressional horse trading. Instead, I think the average conservative voter sees an attractive, young, somewhat charismatic woman who is a member of their party. I think that the President's detractors would say the same thing of the average liberal voter and their might be something to it. But at least our guy isn't a lunatic who can't think his way out of a paper bag.
Doc:
I guess I'm not too sure that Christine O'Donnell and Sarah Palin and their ilk really matter too much right now (although I do think they could be more of a meaningful story to the detriment of the GOP once the presidential campaign begins to get going next year). We seem to be spending quite a bit of time on O'Donnell and wacky congressional candidates wearing Waffen SS uniforms, all at the same time that the Democratic sky could be falling something fierce. Seems like a bit of fiddlin' as the coalition (such as it is) burns. I like a good laugh as much as anyone. But I think that the more salient issues now center on how an incredibly decent guy like Russ Feingold can't get elected, or how an economically distressed state like Pennsylvania is on the verge of rejecting someone like Joe Sestak and electing someone like a Toomey. Isn't the focus on Christine O'Donnell et al. kind of missing the forest through the trees?
Bruce
Great comment, Bruce. Recc'd. We need some coherent messages from the Dems.
But really, Bruce, isn't the most important thing to criticize other people's blog posts? How will progressives ever win if we don't make sure that other people blog about what's on our minds, rather than what's on their minds?
If you feel that blogging about Palin and O'Donnell is a waste of time, by all means: don't blog about them. We've provided you with blogging capacity here, and I look forward to reading what you write.
I blog about different things on different days. Sometimes that's long-term think pieces. Sometimes it's questions apart from partisan politics. Sometimes it's a response to the things happening in the news that day. Today it was about a recently-released poll. I blogged about this particular poll today because it was released today and because I found some of the data in it striking. If this news item hadn't caught my eye, I would have blogged about the way higher education works in America at the moment, as part of a series of posts on that issue.
I have occasionally written posts about what the Democrats or the Administration need to do, and at least one will be coming up in the next few weeks. (I tend not to write "What the Democrats Are Doing Wrong and Why They Suck" posts, because I don't find them especially helpful, but I don't object when others blog about that.) But again, that Whither the Dems? piece is still queued up behind at least one or two posts about academia.
It's quite possible that I'll blog about O'Donnell again, and all but certain that I'll blog about Palin. Most of what I do as a blogger is try to think analytically about things, and the Palin phenomenon is one that I think hasn't been fully understood yet. So from time to time, I'm going to think about what the hell is going on there. Moreover, the Palin/O'Donnell/Bachmann axis does involve other questions I'm interested in blogging about, such as the way gender politics and discrimination intersects with partisan politics.
If your objection is to the overall amount of blog or news coverage about right-wing crazies these days, all I can say is that (1) I decline to take responsibility for other people's blogging and reporting choices and (2) the bizarre behavior by candidates for important political office is inherently newsworthy. I'm sorry if you're tired reading about how many Republicans are behaving like lunatics, but I'm more sorry that so many of them are, in fact, behaving like lunatics. And when Republicans dress up like Nazis, e-mail pictures of women having sex with animals, or buy television ads to deny that they are witches, that behavior does demand public comment.
Doctor Cleveland:
Huh? I don't think we've ever corresponded but my your reply to me is pretty gosh darn defensive for someone who is a principal blogger here.
For what it's worth, let me clarify. I was responding to your blogpost in particular, but the point I was trying to make was more global. It's not the fact that you choose to write about O'Donnel per se that prompted my reply; it's my perception that there is an extraordinary time being spent in the blogosphere and in the MSM on the O'Donnell's of the world. And I think it is missing the forest through the trees.
I honestly did not mean to offend you or to be offensive. But, respectfully, I think your response reflects some pretty thin skin. If you want me to refrain from commenting, say the word.
Bruce, without butting into the discussion you and the Doctor are having, as someone who has known your stuff for most of three years now, I just want to say that you are one of those people when I write who I genuinely hope reads what I type, most sincerely...now I'll leave you be, this is not my post or thread, but just had to say that, dude.
That is very gracious of you Articleman, and I wouldn't be here but for the respect I have for you and Genghis. But I have no interest in starting this kind of ruckus and I hope you know that I honestly didn't write my comment for the purpose of being critical of your colleague.
They know that, Bruce. And so do I. Apologies.
Ditto Doc. My apologies too; sometimes I forget how crotchety I've become in my second half century. Usually it's wise guys like that Genghis character that bring it out though. Gotta watch that guy.
True. But we have an iPhone app that watches him for us.
Don't play innocent, Bruce. We know that you're trouble, and we're watching you like people who watch people who they know are trouble.
(I think the good doctor is just gun-shy due to some recent undaglike activity that we're not used to round these parts.)
Bslev aka Bruce meet Dr. Cleveland aka Dr. Cleveland. Dr. Cleveland meet Bruce. I think this is the beginning of a beautiful friendship.
Bruce, to clarify:
I look forward to reading what you write.
And that is where I should have left it.
I felt that I've been drowning in O'Donnell, and have worried that we do pay her and the likes of her too much attention, assuring that they ARE media stars. I think of that old axiom that 'there is no such thing as bad advertising', and of course you're free to blog what you like. It was that so many are blogging and running videos of her that was the larger issue.
She turned me into a newt.
because ... she's made ... of wood?
I'm also thinking that Nate Silver gives Coons a 99% chance of winning the seat; Harry Reid's in a toss-up with Angle. Angle doesn't have the Media Darlin', dimpled knees factor. So who do we pay attention to? TaDa! Thoughts on why, saving the fact you might want to lobby her to turn A-man back into...what was it? ;o)
Left media (well, and the ladies and their crazy statements, too) have made both Angle and then O'Donnell as talismans of the crazy. Both get outsized attention, imo.
Yeppers. Supersized.
LOL! Maybe she can turn Newt into Articleman...
If the Democrats' big problem next month is shaping up as the enthusiasm gap, then how is focusing attention on such poster children for the crazy as O'Donnell, Angle, Paladino or that would-be Nazi guy NOT a good thing? I hate it that the Dems' only campaign slogan is "The Pepublicans would be worse," but when there's so much evidence that it's true, lying there for the picking, hell, run with it. If candidates like this don't motivate Dems to GOTV, nothing can.
What exactly are bloggers missing by not covering Feingold's apparently losing campaign? What goal would be achieved by doctor Cleveland writing about it? Does the good doctor have enough influence to sway that election? If so, then I agree with you, that that blog should indeed be written. I would like to see Feingold remain in the Senate.
If DC does not wield that level of influence, then your comment is just another in a far-too-long list of random blog commenters trying to dictate what others should write, when the means to get their preferred message out there is literally at their fingertips.
No comment.
My control over Wisconsin politics is actually extensive, especially my profound influence over GOTV efforts, but if I ever reveal that power on my blog I will lose it forever.
Oh. Whoops.
Well, here I must step in and agree with Bruce, perhaps unsurprisingly given my comment upthread. I wrote a blog about Russ Feingold, pointing out that he was going down. I find incongruous the degree of attention afforded in the blogosphere to the ostensible importance of primarying Democrats who would function about the same as the other Democrat, when you have the most notable prog in the Senate going down and the same hue and cry is not raised at all. So I wrote a blog called Adopt a Progressive. But I think Feingold is too far gone.
And yet I think it eminently worth pointing out; not to cause someone else to write about it, or to point a finger at my colleague the Doctor or rival blogs or any person, but at all of us. I think the Doctor's blog rightly focuses on the crazy, but I also think it important to focus, after all this primary-season attention to beating our own brains in, on a real progressive, who was on the losing end of a 99-1 vote on the Patriot Act, who wrote the McCain-Feingold that is the negation of Citizens United, while today's talking points on what Eric Cantor says about Iott. Don't get me wrong, Iott is contemptible and important. But Russ is the liberal conscience of the Senate and is going down silently. I care more about him than the crazy. It's sad.
And I had a similar back and forth with Genghis a year ago, when he was writing his book. He wrote a Glenn Beck blog, and I wrote a counterpoint that Glenn Beck is not important. I can see both sides of it, honestly.
Ah yes. I remember that. It was just before Time magazine put Beck's tongue on its cover.
He'll be their Man of the Year, spurring your book sales.
It did nothing for my bottom line when I was chosen as Time's person of the year.
It's troubling that a fairly large segment, 35% or more, of voters do not apparently believe either that the problems this country faces are serious problems that require serious candidates to address, or that government action is essential to meet the challenges facing our families, communities and nation in the future.
It may also be true that large numbers of voters do not have the time, the interest or the ability to pick smart, honest political representatives and national leaders, which may also explain why so few effective, proven executives ever enter politics.
True enough. But Herbert Hoover still carried between 39 and 40 percent of the vote in 1932. And that was a landslide stomping after three years of not fixing the Great Depression.
In electoral politics, as in baseball, just about everyone wins somewhere between one-third and two-thirds. The thing is to win as much of the middle third as you can.
This is a point that I wish were true because then I could get all righteously indignant about how men are still so completely oppressive! But, as I commented somewhere up above, I think conservative voters who count these candidates not just as qualified but as vastly preferable to the (hopefully) smarter and more well informed alternative aren't making those decisions because they devalue women. They are voting for men who are equally idiotic. Boehner and Cantor are their leaders, for goodness sake. Mike Pence and Louis Gohmert are two more that have already made the cut. Ben Quayle will likely soon be joining them.
It's true that it is insulting to women that these women should rise to the top. But so it is also insulting for men. Your gender's representatives at the conservative table are just as pretty and just as dumb. :)
I suppose if you're looking for change, then all you have to go on is presentation because electing someone with a long record of political achievement isn't change. So we get Survivor: Government in which most of the contestants are eventually revealed to be models, actors and screwups that never made a mark anywhere else.
This Delaware brat reminds me of some Reese Witherspoon movie.
Only this one never even went to Law School.