The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Don't complain about IOWA

    Trump's usual crowing will have cost him some votes.

    Don't give them back by emulating him. Apart from other reasons not to, such as common courtesy.

    Complaints ought to be  limited to those who have never made a mistake.

    Like me!

    Comments

    It has to be said that it is ridiculous to allow Iowa to remain the lead state in the primaries.

    You cower before Trump and default to the position that no matter what evil Trump commits, Progressives are always in the wrong.

    If Trump is re-elected, it will because that is what the country has become.



     

    https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/race/news/2016/02/05/130647/what-about-white-voters/

    Democratic candidates are not going to get the majority of the white vote
    Obama lost the white vote by 20%.


    I don't get why you think that matters. 90% of 12.7% of the population is significantly less votes than 40% of  73% of the population. You think black people should get some award for being 90% democrats?


    Oh, look at desert man, pulls out some Bayesian logic & thinks he rules the internet for the day...
    (hmmm, guess he does. Nate Silver'd approve.)


    I'm pointing out that the Presidential election can be won without winning a majority of the white vote. Democrats are already reaching out to white voters. It is unlikely that Democrats will win the majority of the white vote in 2020. If Democrats only rely on the white vote, they will not win the Presidency. 
     

    Edit to add

    Impact of black voter turnout 

    Among the many factors that contributed to Hillary Clinton’s shocking defeat in 2016, one pretty much everyone agrees upon (though not necessarily about its relative significance) is a falloff in African-American turnout relative to 2012. The numbers are clear, as Politico reported in 2017:

    The Census’ Current Population Survey, released Wednesday, shows 65 percent of white citizens cast ballots in last year’s presidential election, up from 64 percent four years earlier.

     

    But the turnout rate among African-American citizens tumbled sharply, the survey shows. Only 59 percent of black citizens voted in 2016, down from 66 percent in 2012 and 65 percent in 2008.

    Those national numbers may underestimate the size and impact of lower black turnout in individual battleground states, as Osita Nwanevu observed:

    Crucially, the drop in black turnout was even sharper in states where the margin of victory was less than 10 points than it was nationally — in those battleground states, black turnout dropped 5.3 points. In two critical states that swung to Trump — Michigan and Wisconsin — black turnout dropped by just more than 12 points. Declines were less dramatic but significant in other swing states Trump carried: Ohio (down 7.5 points), Florida (4.2), and Pennsylvania (2.1). White turnout declined modestly in each of those swing states but Florida and Pennsylvania, where it increased by 3.5 points and 5.2 points respectively. Clinton lost each of those swing states but Ohio by a margin of less than 2 points.

    Conversely, a return to higher black turnout could be a key element in toppling Trump next year. In a major study from the Center for American Progress, Ruy Teixeira and John Halpin project that natural demographic trends in the last four years plus a return to 2012 levels of African-American voting would flip four states — Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — and give Democrats a 294-244 majority in the Electoral College. And even if black voting turnout doesn’t quite hit those levels, in many states even marginal changes in turnout and Democratic vote-share could make the difference in a close race.


    https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/11/how-can-democrats-get-the-black-turnout-they-need-in-2020.html

     


     If Democrats only rely on the white vote, they will not win the Presidency. 

    If democrats only rely on the black vote it will be a landslide republican victory that makes McGovern's numbers look great. Even if the black turnout is 100%

    he 2016 turnout for blacks was higher than the 04 turnout. Of course you're going to get numbers like that if you compare any presidential vote to the two elections with the first black man running for president. Black turnout hasn't really dropped. It's returned to normal levels we've seen when a black man isn't the democratic candidate. I doubt we'll ever see black turnout that high even when the second black man runs for president. Getting 1 or 2% of the white suburban women to switch to the democrats probably results in more votes than increasing the black turnout 5%. And that's probably easier to accomplish. with the sexist Trump as the republican candidate


    Blacks have to vote 80-85%+ for Democrats to be viable in Presidential campaigns.

    Start working on the medal.

    Edit to add:

    John Kerry won 84% of the black vote in Ohio

    Barack Obama won 97% of the black vote in Ohio

    John Kerry did not win the Presidency 


    Democrats have to get about 40% of the white vote to be viable in presidential elections. And that's a far larger number of votes than democrats get from blacks. Democrats have to get votes from both white and black people. But most of the votes they get will come from whites. It's simple math not algebra or calculus. How did you ever graduate from elementary school?


    I would like to add, if you're talking the vote for president: especially in certain states. States  with demographics kinda like: Iowa.

    Is like I facetiously said in the first comment on PP's post here, same old same old, over and over and over. He has a dream delusion that there is no Electoral College.

    PA, MI, WI, FL:

    (note: no mention of NYC, Chicago, Baltimore, St. Louis, Memphis, New Orleans....

    Detroit and Flint and Miami and Milwaukee?  Yes!


    Or states like California where the Asian population is more than twice the black population, not to even mention Hispanics. The demographics of each state make this a more complex conversation. I just thoought trying to get into that more complex conversation with rmrd would be a waste of time so I kept it simple


    But what would go with my point here: California will not matter in the 2020 presidential election, only purple or swing states count. California is going to be blue in the presidential even if every single black and Asian person stays home. To talk GOTV  to communities with high percentage of Afro Americans is absurd, Trump's opponent's campaign will only care about them in a few select swing states.  To talk about the presidential race as if nationwide demographics matter is absurd, especially this time.

    Matters in House races. Senate races more like presidential...


    Imo you're making the same error that rmrd is making. Those small swing states only matter because a huge state like California is blue. Just like the small black vote only matters because 40% of whites vote democratic. They all matter for the win. 


    As I said, blacks have to go > 80% for the Democrats to win the national election. They need catering just like Iowans.

    Buttigieg and Sanders may win in Iowa and New Hampshire, but crash and burn in South Carolina and more diverse states. Sanders had four years to get his act together racially and failed. We will see if ethnic minority voters shift after the wins in mostly white states.

    Latinos need some Democratic love as well.

    Whites who are still on the fence regarding Trump are going to be more like Susan Collins than Jennifer Rubin. White people appalled by Trump have already peeled off.


    Strawman argument 

    Who said that we had to pick California?

    You argue that something bad could happen if we pick another state

     But we see the clusterfuck that Iowa just performed 

    Iowa made Democrats a laughing stock

    Iowa lost the right to be the first primary

    Even without the app and no phone system backup, their Caucus makes no sense.


    Strawman argument 

    Who said that we had to pick California?

    You argue that something bad could happen if we pick another state

    No one said we had to pick Callifornia. I never suggested it. I've never argued that something bad would happen if we picked another state. But it's good that you're at least labeling your strawman arguments before you post them.


    I was thinking of going HUH? a strawman? where?.  But you did it so much better than I would have.

    (Comes to mind the intended accusation against you might have been: red herring?)


    Yawn


    Warning: stop discriminating against herring because of color.
    Bluish-green herring are perfectly acceptable at The Dag,
    and even the pickled herring can fit in if they moderate their drinking habit
    just a bit.


    Watch what happens if they don't turn out and vote for the Democratic candidate in high numbers. You are wearing blinders.


    If Tlaib & Michael Moore keep booing Hillary, yes, we'll probably lose the white vote.

    Odd thing about white pipple, despite a lot of oxycontin & suicide stats, we just don't seem to be killing ourselves in near the numbers needed for the revolution to take place.



    That's an apology? Try that with your wife - you'll be out of the house.


    FEEL THE BERN..!!!!


    If Sanders' associates are pathetic enough to turn off other Democrats, they will have other Democrats to choose from.


    Yeah, such teamwork! It's almost like we have two opposing political parties here, eh? cheeky


    We do

    Bernie Sanders is not a member of the Democratic Party 


    oh my , that means these to rmrd these are not Democrats either? 

    Bernie Sanders’s Surge Owes a Lot to Voters of Color

    In 2016, the Vermont senator failed to overcome Hillary Clinton’s wide lead among African-American and Latino voters. This time, things are shaping up differently.

    @ NYTimes.com, Jan. 31, 2020..


    You are hilarious.

    Bernie is not a Democrat. Bernie is a Democratic Socialist.

    I have said that I will get behind whoever becomes the candidate for President.

    If Bernie is the candidate, I'll support Bernie

    AOC is a Democratic Socialist. She would get my vote if I lived in her district.


    From the Post and Courier

    Biden keeps a lead in South Carolina’s Feb. 29 primary thanks to black voters who account for close to two-thirds of Democratic ballots cast. 

    The vice president to the country’s first African American president received 30 percent backing from S.C. black voters in the latest Post and Courier-Change Research poll. Biden was receiving support from half of the state’s black voters over the summer.

    Steyer’s work to make in-roads with South Carolina’s African American community, including visiting areas with large black populations and hiring black staffers, appear to be paying off. He received backing from 24 percent of black voters. Sanders follows at 16 percent with Warren at 10 percent. 

    https://www.postandcourier.com/politics/sanders-and-steyer-closing-gap-on-biden-as-sc-presidential/article_b27fd0ca-43c6-11ea-9805-6b054517633c.html

    We will have results on the 29th unless South Carolina screws up like Iowa.


    The highest payback  comes from switching a trump voter.

    If we recruit a  previous non voter , that's one.

    If we recruit a previous Trump voter, that's two: Trump  down one.Our candidate

    up one. 

    Grateful as rmr  correctly says  we should be for any new recruit ,just mathematically the richest hunting ground is the other side's current favorites.


    Have you talked to Ted yet?

    Easy to sit on the sidelines and give advice.


    Nah. The nearest thing of any input from that  segment is a high tech woman who voted for Hillary but

    will stay home if our candidate is Bernie or Warren. Otherwise ,OK.


    RE: Don't give them back by emulating him

    Similar to several of Radio Free Tom's suggestions.

    Myself, I don't get people who don't get the need to offer a 180-degree alternative in behavior, is one of the biggest no-brainer's of all time.

    I am definitely "anybody but Trump" so while I don't like a lot of Bernie policy, I would vote for him if he wins the nomination. But his tendency to an angry ostreperousness in behavior kind of worries me as as far as offering a viable character alternative. Could end up a situation where many swings who vote based on personal characteristics would sit it out, thinking "a pox on both your houses", or in the privacy of the voting booth decide to go with "the devil I know" especially given the economy.

    Anyone else visualize him doing exactly the wrong act in debate with Trump? A sort of fuming and foaming at the mouth thing?


    I'm just wondering what kicking off on the trail would mean

     Everyone xcept Pete has me on tenterhooks.

    Rush, 9 years younger than Bernie, coulda warned 'em.

    Gang of Four guitarist died this week at 64 - of pneumonia?


    Every one here in 2016 knows how much I don't like Sanders. Iowa vote aside the national polls are looking like it's going to come down to  Biden/Sanders. If that's the case when it comes to Arizona I'm going to have to vote for Sanders. I wish I had another choice but I dislike Biden more than I dislike Sanders.



    hah, this is just like so midwest mom.


    Love this lede, this should be taken as a warning by smart Dems:

    You mock us for our flaws, our lack of diversity, our folksy kindness and humility. Then you demand flawlessness.

    this is exactly why some people in flyover ended up voting for Trump: sick of being dissed and can't take it no mo. It's the appeal of Bernie, too, as he often refuses to diss them. Those who cotton to excessive P.C. don't realize how much it is still equated with "the elite". And how "the media" is still equated with "the elite" and this is why so many go to places like Facebook for their information.


    It is also why Iowa shouldn't be first.


    the midwest: