Election Day (Night) Thoughts

    My kid convinced me to hit a café at 3 or 4 am to watch whatever results roll in. Will be a brutal day tomorrow, but a memorable experience, so....

    16 years ago I had a 2-day trip to a conference, and spent all evening in the hotel calling home, fretting over the results that kept changing... and then for the next 2 weeks... and then it was over. #NeverAgain

    Saw a Bill Kristol piece talking about his pride in #NeverTrump. As the voting statistics roll in with Republican and Democratic votes close to even, I still wonder how much #NeverTrump is baked into the GOP side. I'd doubt there are that many people going to vote for Trump just cause they hate Hillary - stay home, Jill Stein, Gary Johnson, McMullin....

    15 years ago our country collectively lost its shit after having 2 buildings knocked down and a 3rd plowed into. With the Cubbies curse over, could our self-induced political & foreign policy curse be about over? Perhaps - expect a sea change in behavior with greatly shifting voting blocs and pent up impatience for new policies.

    I was never thrilled by high Mexican immigration (I prefer more distributed immigration from more nations around the globe), but at least this ear I can appreciate the firewall between the nation and white suicide.

    Early voting may change % of voters permanently, especially if they get over some of the humps that still plague voting - both intentional obstruction, and inefficient ways of chalking up votes & moving through voters. Hey, hand them a flash drive and tally it on up.

    A bloc of California, Nevada and Arizona along with Oregon, Washington and Colorado would make the West irreversibly pot country. Except the surge in HIspanic voting may dampen the success of recreational marijuana. Still, we've come a long way since Nancy Reagan said pot smokers are accessories to murder. Or maybe not - she was probably just deluded or under the influence.

    The Vice News / VoteCastr experiment in early results is so far kind of boring, and inconclusive (early voters don't predict final percentages, and only indicate whether a massive move is underway). But we'll see when actual state releases start coming out.

    Hoping a win today means Obama withdraws his Supreme Court nominee for one Hillary supports. Elections have consequences; stonewalling shouldn't be rewarded with greater choice.

    For all Wall Street's problems, it's not suicidal like the purity right - they're pumped that Hillary looks to win. And I don't think they're looking forward to more speeches (with transcripts), or expecting a big money pipleline direct from Washington. It'll just be a healthier, more predictable environment tha Trump would ever promote.

    Does this year signal another huge change in polling methodology and putting together models? Well, next election pollsters are going to have to learn Spanish, get better at deducing opinion from online sources, and get better at dialing in full-on crazy into their models.

    Is this the year Republicans finally get punished and start to atone/readjust for their overreach and brutish strategies the last 2 decades, or will we have to endure another cycle? Will they notice when all the women have left the building?

    2016 will still long be remembered for encouraging an unhinged, completely uninformed business developer to run, and then backing his campaign despite lies, outrageous comments and sullied revelations. That this election is still a nail-biter says horrid things about us as a people. Can it be fixed?

    Fingers crossed, a few hours to go.


    Things do not look very good right now at eight pm cst.

    Things do not look very good right now at eight pm cst.

    Things do not look very good right now at eight pm cst.

    It's beginning to look like Trump doesn't matter, Hillary doesn't matter. About 90% of republicans are voting for Trump. About 90% of democrats are voting for Hillary. We're about an evenly divided nation and all that matters is who turns out. Both sides seem to be having high turn out. Looks like it's going to be close.

    Down to a few states. Hope you delivered those 1.5m Hispanics to the polls as I asked. Would have done it myself, but over here in Europaland where we're dealing with angry departing Brits. People are so petulant.

    NC goes for Trump. Florida is probably going for Trump. Finegold lost to the republican in WI senate race. Hillary is going to lose. If she pulls it out, barely,  she won't win the senate. People are terminally stupid to a degree that even a pessimist like me didn't expect.

    It comes down to what I said some months ago which you poo-poohed as Bernie winning where there are no people. The wide swaths of unhappy rural land is an issue that needs dealing with, it adds up. White rednecks haven't disappeared. Taking cities and minorities isn't the whole picture, especially when combined with party tribalism.

    I don't think I've said anything like that. Either you're thinking of a different poster or misinterpreting something I wrote.

    At no point did a say Bernie is winning where there are no people. So as I said, you've clearly misinterpreted. Seeing the comment you're referring to now I can say you've made up shit that I never said.

    OK: " I don't think there's any peril. We can create maps like this all over the US. We've got these low population states with large tracts of land with almost nobody living on it. " Upstate New York, where there are no people. Those tracts in Pennsylvania where there are no people are coming in now, and it looks like they'll put Trump over the top. 

    I'm not going to relitigate this. If your reading comprehension is to low to understand my comments no amount of explanations will improve that ability.

    Nice. No, I don't understand what you were trying to say then, but I do understand what I intended with that diary, and it looks like the most pertinent I wrote all campaign season, sadly to our detriment.

    PP - "But outside NYC, Hillary won in only 3 places - by 300 votes in Buffalo (0.4%), 2600 in Rochester (3.6%), 2250 in Onondaga/Syracuse (6%).

    My guess is that it's the small town voter, especially whites, that aren't buying into her campaign as much as city voters, blacks, etc. Maybe it's backlash from Obama and her wrapping herself around him - she did well with white rural voters in 2008, but perhaps the financial meltdown shifted that to a degree. Maybe being Obama's shadow doesn't cut it for many after 7 1/4 years."

    No, it says horrid things about the choice to nominate Hillary Clinton.  Own it.  

    One can make up any story they want about how history would have changed if this or that had happened. I think Utah tells a pertinent story. No one ever thought Utah would vote for Hillary but they thought it might go for McMullin. Didn't happen. Republicans came home.

    I agree.  The DNC can only blame themselves for this s^^t show.  

    Sure, Bernie would have won the debates, Bernie would have carried the South.

    Probably not the South, but jesus, he'd have won Wisconsin.

    Yeah, cause Scott Walker never won there. Cause high taxes and universal health care are such winning issues. Visiting Castro  - that would give him Florida fer sure.

    Republicans control the house. Republicans control the senate. Republicans control 31 states. All that happened during Obama's term. None of it was Hillary's fault. I'm not blaming it on Obama, but let us not pretend democrats haven't been losing for at least 8 years. Except for the presidency.

    Yeah. None of this is Clinton's fault.

    Always was, always will be. With her gone now, and Bernie and Warren too old, wonder what exciting winning avatar the left will bring us next time. Awful she said "predator" 20 years ago, used her own email server, and ran a global charity - criminal acts that won't be tolerated from future politicians. The big thing Bernie got right is that for most Americans, trade is an evil despite our position in the economy. What he didn't get right is the racism that fuels that anger. Trump offers little to fix these, but he named them, even countering Republican dogma, and that was enough. Plus he has money - Bernie would never be credible for a get-rich scheme.

    No idea what's coming next from the blue team except it'll be someone born after 1963.

    There is going to be some rebuilding. I am not sure if it will be in the Democrat Party, until there is some soul searching about how they should be serving the people more and less what the corporations want. NAFTA finally bit them in the butt. I think the era of Clintonism is done. The Democrats did a poor job of taking care of their labor base in the last few decades. They allowed the hollowing out of jobs in the fly over part of the county and then expected those people to keep on voting for them.  

    Don't be stupid. I didn't say none of what happened tonight wasn't Hillary fault. But democrats have clearly been losing for 8 years. These last 8 years of losses wasn't Hillary's fault. So do you blame Obama for it to the same degree you blame Hillary for tonight? Democrats are losing. Have been for years. I been posting about it for a decade. Face it. Let's stop obsessing about the one win or the one loss by the person at the top. I'd trade the Obama presidency for the state, house and senate wins by the republicans. On balance they've been doing much better.

    Speaking more seriously, there were likely errors she made in focusing too much on new coalitions, and not enough on the neglected-feeling white base -  a money and organizational issue, along with external factors and the changing rules of acceptability. Of course she could have done something different and still lost (she worked ard in PA and Ohio tho maybe too much just metro area, while Michigan seems an unforced error, the GOP killed NC thru limiting black voting, Fla might have had better Hispanic rganization and money...) Wolraich has studied the Revolution thing much more than the rest of us, and will likely have interesting insights over the coming days.

    Marijuana wins in California - the whole west coast is now pot-enabled or unincarcerated. I don't smoke, but pot's been a stupid priority in the War on Drugs for decades. Heroin can kill,cocaine can kill, amphetamines can kill, alcohol can kill. and all can lead to crime... except pot. A piece of good news for a dismal nail-biting evening.

    Nevada too.

    Mass legalizes pot too, along with several new states for medical marijuana (ND, AR, FL, MT). Arizona failed. Maine's legalization vote is still too close, but "yes" leads by 3000 votes. Looks like a bicoastal movement.

    Trump won't do anything for his voters that they and we won't pay for many times over. There won't be 'both sides' to blame for the coming costly disasters. The GOP has no idea or experience in effective responsible federal governance.

    Biden would have been a better choice, although the GOP would block everything he tried to do. Bernie would have likely been destroyed as a tax raising 'communist' which Trump called him.

    Now the Republicans will have complete control to explode the deficit, sink the dollar, kill jobs and trade,  phase out Medicare, SS, bomb Iran and spike oil back to 3+ a gallon. There could be domestic unrest if he deports millions.


    Uneducated white women go for Trump 2 to 1. Strange times.


    Non-college white men 72% 23% T+49

    Non-college white women 62 34 T+28

    College white men 54 39 T+15

    College white women 45 51 C+6

    -college white men 72% 23% T+49

    Non-college white women 62 34T+28

    College white men 54 39 T+15

    College white women 45 51 C+6

    Gender and education

    Data based on preliminary exit poll results


    College-educated white women voted for Clinton 51 percent to 45 percent, but non-college-educated white women voted for Trump 62 percent to 34 percent. 

    People, it's too soon for bickering and finger pointing. Let's take a moment to come to grips with this calamity. 

    Holy shit. Clinton just conceded. pushed her minion out on stage to send her supporters off into the night and then twenty minutes later conceded. What a fucking coward.

    CNN panel spends a half an hour saying how awful Hillary is for not conceding tonight. And then she concedes, as she always said she would. Coward? you haven't been threatened and subjected to 1/10000th she has. She didn't do something on your schedule? Go sulk about it.

    She should have addressed her crowd and the nation.

    Hillary didn't concede before PA and WI was called. She conceded as soon as they were called. You think she should have conceded before they were called?

    I think she should have waited twenty more minutes and then conceded publicly. Her crowd and the nation deserved as much, but whatever.

    They don't deserve fuckall. She gave what she had to give, and it doesn't make a rat's ass worth of difference beyond that phone call. She spent a career making great concrete suggestions, policy papers, working hard, and got rejected majorly 3 times, the last after even nastier shit throwing than in 2008. If she wants to just go away quietly, I don't blame her. People just want a spectacle to please their greedy personal pleasures.

    The crowd at the convention center had to leave. It wasn't rented for two days. Someone had to address them and tell them to leave. Do you think she should have rented it for two days just in case? It seems to me you're reacting out of anger without taking the time to get the facts. Don't expect others treat you gently if you're going to behave like an ass.

    Twenty minutes. I knew she lost, you knew she lost and she knew it. This wasn't 2004. She didn't scrap her concession speech because of a rental agreement.

    Weren't you paying attention? I was watching streams from three channels and they all said the same think. The Clinton campaign waited until the last moment and then they had to give up the hall. They couldn't wait 20 minutes. Do you think they should have just declared squatters rights? You're talking out of your ass and in an extremely insulting manner. If that's how you decide to play it you can expect to be insulted back.

    Bullshit. If the tables were turned they'd have waited.

    Trump won because uneducated morons didn't pay attention to the facts. Those who voted for him will be the most likely to be hurt by his policies. I voted for Hillary but I won't be hurt by a Trump presidency. Your posts show that that same level of "thinking" also exists on democratic side as well

    Yep, I don't even have to threaten to leave the country - been there, done that.

    Thanks for reminding that in the face of even disaster, we can focus on the completely trivial. That *is* how such a consequential election got reduced to a bunch of largely unclassified emails that didn't even get hacked.

    I think it was because of health reasons.  I will cut her that slack.  

    I think a 69-year-old woman cried herself silly and looked like hell and felt like hell, and it's better to do on another day, even for her own grieving fans' sake. Just my guess. Giving them another reason to gloat? I'd prefer not.

    Or as she noted daintily at one point, "sometimes a woman takes a little longer".

    But when she does speak, I expect it to be note perfect. And if it's not, I'll understand.

    Of course - Clinton rules.

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