The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Romney's 46% gaffe.

    By Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 11:39am |

    In my opinion it's way too early to conclude that Romney's fund raising video is a "game changer". While Romney's comments are reprehensible, the media coverage so far does not parse the victims to include the 50% of Republicans in red states who are low income and don't pay taxes---but distributes 100% of these folks to the Obama camp. Thus, on the media surface, Romney was correct. A lot of people pay no federal income taxes and they all vote for Obama. What else is new?

    I am not impressed by the way Democrats are addressing the video. Democrats have not properly responded to the "47% pay no taxes" charge in the past and I can't see that their response to this video so far has improved their messaging. So to turn this video into a game changer, Democrats need to improve their attacks. "Romney wrote off the 47%" doesn't, imo, move the needle.  

    So where is the game change? Among Republicans? I don't think so. The 46% who have been with him since May will still be there tomorrow---look at the graphs at Real Clear Politics, it's a 46% ceiling.  

    If you look at Hispanics and Independents, Romney's comments are astonishing: "I would have a better chance if I were Mexican." Plus---"...Independents vote on "emotions", whether they like this guy or that guy". Think about that statement. In addition to insulting Independents who simply vote their emotions ( instead of their rational consideration of issues), Romney is giving himself an out based on the "likability" factor. 

    So, will new Independent converts move Romney's numbers? I doubt it. How many un-decideds are there? Will they even go to the polls?

    I was most struck by the numbers Romney used---"47% , then 48, then 49, then er"---uh oh, if Obama gets to 50.000001 Obama wins. Bad example. As far as "arithmetic" is concerned, if Obama gets 49%, Romney needs to win 99% of the Independents to become President. Why would smart business-guy donors fork over money for such a mathematically impossible result? Is it any wonder that financial industry types who are contributing to Romney by and large think Obama will win?

    To my mind the worse part of Romney's 46% gaffe is that his remarks are the hall marks of a loser, his comments being more representative of a concession speech than of a man who is prepared to win.

    It seems that #46 is Romney's ticket---too bad it's not a country club raffle, he'd have more of a chance to win something there than in a contest to win the Presidency.

     

    Comments

    Genghis, having some intermittent problems with the old "#14" typefont and can't seem to highlight this post and switch it to Dagblog 13. Has anything changed, or am I just unusually challenged. Thanks.


    by Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 11:52am

    Nothing has changed, and it's working for me. I fixed the font for you.


    by Michael Wolraich on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 12:43pm

    Thanks.


    by Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 1:16pm

    I like Obama's "President of all the people" line.


    by Michael Wolraich on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 12:45pm

    Yes . . .

    That is why I posted the following over in Trope's post "Romney's Rock and Hard Place"...

    A simple yet telling point is not whether those undecideds personally like Obama more than Romney, but do those undecideds perceive that Obama truly likes and cares more about ALL the people more so than Romney does.

    ~OGD~

     


    by oldenGoldenDecoy on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 1:42pm

    Right, OGD. Certainly Obama is perceived as more likable. Whether it translates, I honestly don't know.

    I was just listening to CNBC and they actually did parse the 47% somewhat. But the conclusion was---"isn't it awful that some people pay no taxes". Those poor top 20% have to support the rest of us.


    by Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 2:05pm

    Yes, but coming from a black Muslim secret partner of Goldman Sachs it sounds somewhat patronizing, don't you think?

     


    by Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 2:01pm

    Gallup is showing the gap nationally closing to 1% lead for Obama*, which wouldn't reflect this video.  Over the next few days Obama probably should get some separation.   But I think in places like Ohio and Florida, the 47% comment won't need to much help from the Dems to resonate with folks.  Moreover, it pretty much cements the leaning Obama states into Obama's win column.  So his team can just fixate on VA FL and OH (the comment probably does little damage to Romney in states like IA). 

    *the flare up in the ME was probably not doing Obama any favors in the polls.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 2:33pm

    I'd pay more attention to Nate Silver's analysis for better accuracy given his 2008 performance. He has Obama winning in 2012.

    Gallup is not accounting for the electoral numbers. The Gallup is a good number to use to scare Democrats to the polls.


    by rmrd0000 on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 5:29pm

    I would add that another facet about the speech is that reminds the Democratic base why it is so important to go out and vote.

    Six months ago there were plenty of people out there (and on this site) saying there was no difference between Romney and Obama.  Both were moderate Republicans.  Some were apathetic about voting, others were planning on voting for Romney (on the logic that since he was a R, the liberals would fight those same policies that Obama was pushing currently).  [don't see any of these people making those comments lately].

    The 46% comment (along with the "if only my dad was Mexican" and "the Palestinians don't want peace" comments to name a few others from the video) is the latest evidence to liberals that whatever issues one might have with Obama, it isn't going to be business as usual with a Romney administration.

    The GOTV effort in places like CO, OH, FL and VA will determine who wins.  Romney has done his part to help this effort by just opening his mouth.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 3:39pm

    Thanks, Trope. I agree with you about GOTV. I think it will make the difference.


    by Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 6:21pm

    Hey Oxy,

    I on the other hand, have concluded that this video is a game changer--especially for those who listen to it rather than just read the remarks. Romney so obviously feels special--in my post here I said that he's delusional about his/his friends' specialness in the same way as the really annoying guy in the office who really believes he's the only one working. It's weird, and it crystallizes why people don't like him and don't really trust in his competence.

    Just my 2 cents. As far as I can tell, this is "Coffin, meet nail."


    by erica20 on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 5:43pm

    I'd like to think that what you're saying is true. And I honestly don't know how this will play out.

    But here's an unintended consequence: Romney's problem has been that he's muzzled, and for good reason. However, now he's forced out into the open and he must fight with his back against the wall. That can make a person more effective. So in doubling down, Romney sounds more authentic. Obviously he's playing to the base. But the extremities of this situation may make his narrative more appealing to some who have no conviction one way or another. He just insulted Independents, but his description may prove prophetic---they are in fact, emotional, and may react to his higher level energy.

    I just don't want Democrats to think that this is the clincher. I don't think it is.


    by Oxy Mora on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 6:18pm

    I would agree it is not a clincher.  There are still the debates.  So much can happen in the world between now and then.  People forget I think McCain and Palin were surging when Lehman imploded.

    But I think the biggest event in this particular "gaffe" - Obama on Letterman tonight and Letterman asks about him the video.  This will reach more of those who aren't news/political junkies.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 6:37pm

    I think it is a clincher--but at the same time I agree we need to be diplomatic in our response, just like we'd be in the case of the guy at the office who thinks he's the only one working. Nobody wants that guy to jump off the roof of the building (or conversely, to rally people in the office to his side by saying we're insulting him.)


    by erica20 on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 7:35pm

    The debates are certainly Willard's last, best hope. That said, its hard to see his path to winning them. The " body language " gambit that stood him in such good stead in the primary debates will just play into the out of touch plutocratic meme going forward, and his prolific history of casual lying will be impossible to carry off in the face of an educated, prepared and confrontational opponent (granted the format insulates him somewhat from direct questioning)

    by jollyroger on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 9:43pm

    your point about his challenge in the debate is right on.  how do you attack the president and convey you really care about the suffering of the average person.  it can be done, but there is nothing in Romney's performances, nothing I say, that indicates such a performance is within his wheelhouse, or remotely close.  Seriously, anyone who thinks taking on Obama is remotely close to taking on Newt and Santorum needs to go back and retake campaigning 101.


    by Elusive Trope on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 10:21pm

    Campaigning 101, 201 or 3301 wouldn't help Romney. He is truly a legend in his own mind, he is convinced he needs no further education.

    What Mitt would like to have is 5 guys to tackle Obama and hold him down, while Mitt spouts off about how he represents the master race of job creators, while Obama is head of the moocher parasites who don't deserve food, shelter, health care or perhaps even their lives.

    Romney ridiculed Jimmy Carter, 'even Carter could have gotten bin Laden', yet in the MJ video Mitt says he would kick the can down the field on the Middle East. Carter was, of course. the only President to achieve a major peace treaty in the region, between Israel and Egypt.

    Romney will  boast, and personally believe, that he hit a home run in the debates regardless of outcome.


    by NCD on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 11:25pm

    I don't see how Romney can really do it either. He has demonstrated over and over that he's just a little off. His only hope is to try to get Obama peeved, but I don't think Obama will go for it.


    by Erica (not verified) on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 12:49am

    Rex Nutting of WSJ Marketwatch on Romney vs. The Takers, the 47 - 47 - 47 plan:

    ...Romney told a group of wealthy donors last spring that America was deeply divided: Nearly half of the people — 47% to be exact — were essentially living off the government’s largesse, while the rest contributed to America’s greatness. Forty-seven percent paid no income taxes, 47% thought the government owed them a cushy life on a silver platter, and, not-so-coincidentally, 47% liked Barack Obama. .....Mitt Romney is running for president of an America where hard work only counts if it leads to success.........An America where we pretend that the accidents of wealth, health, race, class and gender don’t confer great advantages to the lucky ones. An America that only shows weakness when it extends a hand to those who’ve stumbled along the way....Mitt, you can be president of your America. I’ll stick with the real one, the one where Democrats and Republicans alike work hard, pay their taxes, invest in their children, get help from their government, love their country...


    by NCD on Tue, 09/18/2012 - 8:16pm

    Hey MITT . . .

    The current President of the United States of America says:

    “One of the things I learned as president is you represent the entire country.
    If you want to be president, you have to work for everyone.”

    Get a frickin' clue Willard!

    ~OGD~

     


    by oldenGoldenDecoy on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 2:30am

    Duplicate comment removed


    by artappraiser on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 7:16am

    Brian Beutler @ TPM has made quite a provocative find on that 47% number:

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/2012/09/new_romney_ad_attacks_47_p...

    (I'm pretty sure that you, Oxy, will recognize the guy in the ad wink)


    by artappraiser on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 7:15am

    Who is that guy?  Kind of looks like my cousin, Eddie. Or one of the guys who run my trucks.


    by Oxy Mora on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 2:10pm

    Hey Oxy,

    Yes I think it was a game changer. Here is why, this is just the latest in a string of big missteps by Mitt. I mean did you see that guys hair during his press conference over that video, it was definitely as messy as his campaign. I don't think his campaign can recover from this, he sounds like a Randian fool.

    In the second part of the video released his little speech about Palestinians and Israeli's was an indication the guy is as buffaloed by neo-cons as GWB, and he would rush us headlong into another war, but this one with Iran. OMG. I think people see that clearly, and one thing American's don't want or need is another war in the Middle East.

    But hell, it could change, I doubt it though, those running his campaign are as inept as he seems to be.


    by tmccarthy0 on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 10:02am

    Thanks, Tmc. I think he still has a chance to take advantage of it---at least the first day's releases. He's shortly to hold a town hall format. We'll see. But the later stuff, on Palestine, is potentially more damaging. 


    by Oxy Mora on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 2:12pm

    My husband keeps telling all the Republicans he knows at work, "I would argue with you, but I just feels so bad for you. Your candidate, he's well, he's not very good at this is he."  Hahahaha, they don't know what to say to him.

    I am stunned he is going to hold a town hall format, because he doesn't do well in that format, as we saw from the Country Club Gala Town Hall. I hope I am home to watch it, because it could end up being one more nail, in a coffin currently made only of nails now that sinks him past the 10,000 league mark.

    So when is this town hall anyway? Or did I already miss it?


    by tmccarthy0 on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 11:16pm

    I think it was the Spanish language one, otherwise known as "Cubans Gone Wild".


    by Oxy Mora on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:34am

    New talking point at Romney central:

    Capture Drudge

    Gotta give them it's a good old college try in a bad situation, and I do think this might work with a lot of undecideds in crucial swing states but only if the candidate weren't one who had signed "Romneycare" into law.  It seems so likely this try would be shot down at the debates, leaving any undecideds still undecided, unless Romney can come up with some better reasons for being against "Obamacare" than he has given to date.


    by artappraiser on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 6:20pm

    Maybe the "mandate" charge has lost some steam. Romney is now proud to be the Grandfather of it.


    by Oxy Mora on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:36am

    OK, people, time to back off. Seems we jumped the gun. There's a two minute gap in the tape that explains everything. Through some anonymous sources I have a transcript of those two minutes.

    Ha ha, just joking. Everything I've just said in the last 54 minutes shows what a incredible sense of humor I have. I didn't mean any of it. I loves me some poors. We have so much in common. Just like me you take advantage of every loop hole in the tax code to pay the lowest amount you can. Deductions for your children, earned income tax credit, just like my Cayman Island tax shelter and Swiss bank account. You poors are so much luckier than me. As far as you know I had to pay 14% on my 250 million dollars while you pay no tax at all. Some people might call you trailer trash and poor white trash but not me. I wish I was a poor, a latino poor. Life would be so much easier if I was a poor like you. Yeah, ha ha, just can't stop laughing. I like that funny stuff.


    by ocean-kat on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 7:56pm

    And then all the servers form a line, throw their white gloves into the middle of the table and sing the Banana Boat Song.  Day-O, Day-----O. Daylight come and I want to go home. As they approach Romney he falls in at the end of the line, waving a tambourine.


    by Oxy Mora on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:41am

    Oxy Mora, I commend your effort to restrain popping open the champagne bottles too soon because of the release of this video.

    One element that may be worth noticing about the pitch Romney made is not about his lack of empathy or ignorance about the structure of the U.S. economy and the people who make it possible but the flattery employed to encourage rich people to invest in his campaign.

    Flattery is not a simple thing. It can praise, condemn, offer faint praise, or lick the boots of the target audience.

    I think the lingual quality of the latter type in Romney's appeal for cash might turn off people who don't give a damn about what offends other people. 

     


    by moat on Wed, 09/19/2012 - 9:41pm

    Thanks, Moat. Those are some intriguing takes on forms of flattery.

    So do I get your point? The sociopaths are actually offended by a guy who stoops to patronizing they themselves. Sign of weakness? 


    by Oxy Mora on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 10:48am

    Compare the tenor of Romney's remarks with how GW Bush handled the same crowd when he said something like: "Many refer to you gathered here as the wealthiest people in the United States; I refer to you as my base."

    There is no struggle for acceptance in that remark.


    by moat on Thu, 09/20/2012 - 5:22pm