Michael Maiello's picture

    Telling Stories

    "Those are Chechen names," said my wife, upon first seeing the Tsarnaev brothers identified in print.  "Interesting that Putin offered his assistance to Boston."

    Then, we were off.  After all, how else could a pair of brothers hold off the entire Boston area police apparatus for so long?  Generally speaking, civilians don't survive shootouts with the police.  Even before modern technology, even in the old west, the police would usually win.  They bring superior numbers.  They bring basically infinite resources.  You might hold out for awhile but the police eventually overwhelm you.  The police never give up and have institutional support to keep up the fight forever.

    Yet these two kids had a standoff with police and one of them escaped.

    They just had to be Chechen super terrorists, right?  They had to be people with uncommon martial skills.  Add the weird comment from Putin, a dictator and spy with a pretty known racist streak when it comes to Chechens and the story just makes sense  -- a couple of rogue Chechen super warriors, hardened by wars against Russia's toughest military units, were on the loose in Boston.

    Except, not.

    The story made sense.  The mind certainly wants to go there.  But it doesn't add up.  Even the older brother was too young, when he left Chechnya, to have had battlefield experience.  Both brothers spent their formative years in the U.S., fitting in with varying degrees of success.  The older brother was a very good boxer (qualifying for the Golden Gloves national isn't easy) with a bad temper and the younger brother is described as a polite and smart student.

    Life is full of exceptions and things that don't "fit the story."  That these two held off the police for so long is one of those exceptions.  Now, a new narrative is developing, one that's less 9/11 and more Columbine.  Maybe.

    Now that the younger brother has been captured alive, we'll get the story in his words.  My mind leaps to the D.C. snipers with a younger brother in thrall of his elder.  Could be.

    Or not.  Perhaps the criminal's words won't be the truth.  This might be a story of politics, or aspiring international terrorists of a controlling brother and a follower, of two equal collaborators raging against society, or extreme mental illness.  So many stories might fit the facts.

    We keep rushing to these stories, hence the media's many mistakes over the course of the week.

    Stories can be quickly written.  Explanations take time.  Our minds are built for narrative -- it's probably part of the evolutionary process, it's how we reason.  But it doesn't always serve us.

    No real point to this except to observe that a week of chaotic news reminds us of what we already knew deep down, which is that life constantly defies our hunches and expectations.  In light of that, the political theater about who uses the word terrorism first when stuff like this happens seems pretty silly.

    Comments

    I remember thinking the same thing as your wife when I saw a headline about Putin offering his assistance and wondering what he knew.  That was before the suspects were named. When they were my first guess given that it begins with Tsar- was that they were Russian so Putin knowing something made sense but I still wonder when he knew it. 

    Nor was I surprised by that the manhunt took so long.  Look at how risk averse and methodical these guys are:

    Getting a posse to saddle up and ride takes a bit longer nowadays

    I was surprised that after all that that none of them thought to look in the boat.  Also very surprised that the boat's owner did after being locked down all day then seeing blood smears on the tarp cover (if that is an accurate report).  What was he thinking!?

    Since we are doing what ifs ourselves -- what if instead of a DC sniper like relationship it was the younger brother that got the older brother to go along with him.  If reports are accurate of how calm and collected he was afterwards and that he actually backed over his brother to get away, then he just might be the psychopath of the duo. The older brother sounds too intense and conflicted to be one even if he enjoys boxing.

    Why did they do it?  Maybe they were just disappointed that America is not really like it is portrayed in the movies. 

     


    I found it interesting (maybe because I am the younger one when it comes to my brother and me) that the media immediately assumed that the older brother was the one driving the action.  From the initial profiles, the older brothers' sense of alienation probably made him more likely to be vulnerable to manipulation by another who had a stronger sense of purpose and mission.


    Excellent point.  Funny how the mind leads us in familiar directions that might not be the true path.


    To be fair, the yard with the boat in it was one block beyond the perimeter, and the perimeter was established at night. So it's possible that Tsarnaev was already outside the perimeter by dawn. (I'd like to know if there were any other boats inside the perimeter, and whether they were searched or not. I'm not sure I would have looked inside a shrink-wrapped boat, but fortunately I'm not LE.)

    I was concerned that Tsarnaev would make his way down to the Watertown Yacht Club just a few blocks away, which would have made for a very dangerous (and expensive!) search indeed.


    You wrote:

    That these two held off the police for so long is one of those exceptions.

    I disagree. They were found quite quickly in my opinion.

    It took years to find Eric Rudolph, who wasn't captured until 2003, he was responsible for a series of bombings that injured over 150 people and killed two between 1996 and 1998.  It took 17 years to find Ted Kaczinsky, and he wasn't found until his own brother turned him in.

    So I think once those photos hit the public, it wouldn't be long before these two were caught. I think that is pretty fast.


    I didn't mean to criticize the police work here.  They found their suspects very quickly, indeed.  What I meant was, it's something of a miracle that one of them survived the initial confrontation with police which involved them being outnumbered and outgunned to an insane degree.


    Oh yes that is very true. I was proud of the cops in this case for taking the kid alive too.

    Good for them I hope we get our questions answered.


    I dunno.

    Right now I am looking for a White Russian!


    Comment of the day

    I just read The Lede's report of CNN's video, Watertown Chief Describes Showdowns With Suspects.

    This hit me right away,

    The brothers were driving two cars, the S.U.V. and a Honda. The S.U.V. owner’s cellphone was still in the car. “Lucky for him and lucky for us that his cellphone remained in that vehicle, so we were able to get updates” on its location, Chief Deveau said.

    this way: no one trained by Al Qaeda or the Taliban would make that mistake! Drones like cellphones!

    Then I read how they had a negotiator in the house above the boat trying to get Dzhokhar to show he had no suicide belt and to give up, even though he had fired at them from the boat.

    Then I read the summary:

    Chief Deveau said it was amazing that none of his officers were killed.

    “How the Watertown police are not attending a funeral of our own based on what happened on that street over that period of time is just talent, guts, and glory,” he said.

    And then I thought how this relates to some of your points:  You're wrong that they were using full power available to them/us in this day and age. (Need I even say that they didn't use weaponized drones--that's not allowed on U.S. streets yet as far as I know--though they did use a chopper with infrared?)

    Pretty clear to me they were trying to minimize loss of life first and foremost. It was Dzhokhar and Tamerlane who wanted grand shoot-em-out and blow-em-up scenes from the movies, and it was the case, for the most part, that the cops wouldn't give em what they wanted.

    I should mention that there is, to some, a  big down side to this approach. To paralyze a whole city in "lockdown" in order to minimize possible loss of life during a manhut, and to go slow and careful rather than just blow suspects to smithereeens, will also get you the argument that you are giving terrorists what they really want: to paralyze daily life and show the impotence of a society's security. That actually strikes me as the drone argument: best way is just kill 'em ASAP.

    After thinking on this a bit more, I'm thinking that there maybe were some really smart profilers running this thing who had a hunch from the behavior exhibited that we weren't dealing with 100% bonafide classic terrorists here. And to do the equivalent of a "drone thing" would just get them all kinds of more trouble in the end.


    I think you're right about the profiling, AA.  The brothers made too many mistakes to be considered pros.  I think the profilers also guessed that the older brother was probably the more committed and dangerous of the two and by taking it slow they might just be able to take the younger one alive. 

    I am shocked, though, that Dzhokhar came out of it alive.  They could have blasted that boat to smithereens in two seconds.  They didn't do it.  They were the pros.

     


    I followed the story on Reddit, which I had never used before.

    My favorite comment out of thousands was "Gotta love the Boston Police. They'll call you an asshole to your face, but overall, they're probably the least trigger-happy cops in the country."

    I share your appreciation of the (relatively) restrained approach.


    "I should mention that there is, to some, a  big down side to this approach. To paralyze a whole city in "lockdown" in order to minimize possible loss of life during a manhut, and to go slow and careful rather than just blow suspects to smithereeens, will also get you the argument that you are giving terrorists what they really want: to paralyze daily life and show the impotence of a society's security. That actually strikes me as the drone argument: best way is just kill 'em ASAP."

    I haven't seen it yet, but there is also an argument to be made that, despite what they'd done, they were not really enough of a threat to justify a city-wide lockdown order while the police searched for them.  Such powers could be potentially abused.


    Nice analysis AA, I agree.


    Call me old fashioned, but I'm waiting for the story of a trial. Remember those?


    There are some more innocent until proven guilty than others. ;)

    Their mother was arrested for theft of clothing worth $1623. from Lord and Taylors last year.  This was just before she went back to Russia.  I find that interesting because of what the uncle said about a "not being able to settle."  This could be a family dynamic that is more complex then what appears on the surface. Here is the link:      http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2311653/Boston-bombings-Mother-Boston-bombing-suspects-arrested-year-stealing-1-600-worth-clothes-Lord--Taylor.html


    Here is the link to the police report in the Natick Patch last June:   http://natick.patch.com/articles/arrests-1-600-in-clothes-stolen


      One of my facebook friends disapproved of the lockdown. I think that is taking libertarianism a bit too far.


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