The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    Wisconsin supreme court election

    By Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 6:38am |

    Kloppenburg will win.  NOON Wednes day

    With one (pro Prosser ) precinct missing she's ahead by 220

     

    Comments

    At 8 am Prosser's lead was @800 with a "couple of dozen precints" missing.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 9:39am

    At 10 am  23 precincts missing  representing  7000 votes all but 200 are in counties where Kloppenburg has a lead 

                          missing    her  %

                           votes     in the rest of the county

     Sauk               3600       55%

    Milwaukie          900        57

    Ashland             700        71

    Dane                 700         73

    Crawford            300         59

    If she held those margins in the missing precincts that would put her ahead of Prosser


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 10:27am

    At 10 30 Prossenburg's ahead .10 precints still missing


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 10:44am

    With Prossenburg ahead by 120 votes (out of 1.5 million )it's impossible to predict how the remaining 10 missing precincts will change things. 

    Crawford           300        59

    Dane                 700         73     the 700 may be too high

    Dunn                400         55

    Jefforson          500         42

    Milwaukee         900        57

    Taylor              200        39


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:01am

    Prossenburg?  As close as this is, you actually made it closer.


    by kyle flynn on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:03am

    Kloppenburg.

    She's now ahead by 500 votes.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:06am

    Super.  And thnx for the updates.


    by kyle flynn on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:09am

    This race bothers me.

    At least Walker lost something for sure:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/04/06/chris-abele-milwaukee-county-executive_n_845347.html

     


    by Richard Day on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 10:47am

    At 11am edt Kloppenburg is ahead by 500 votes with 5 precincts missing from 

                  missing  votes    Kloppenburgs %

    Jeffersonville 500    42

    Juneau 200                   52

    Milwaukee        900                    57

    Taylor               200                   39

    So it comes down to Milwaukee. In an area that large the overall county % may be invalid as a basis for projection.  If the 900 missing votes in the other 3 counties vote with the rest of the county Kloppenburg will still have a lead. Milwaukee can then either add to it or possibly flip the overall total to Prosser.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:20am

    Thanks for the excellent updates, Flavius.


    by Obey on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:22am

    At 11am edt Kloppenburg is ahead by 500 votes with 5 precincts missing from 

                  missing  votes    Kloppenburgs %

    Jeffersonville      500    42

    Juneau             200                   52

    Milwaukee        900                    57

    Taylor              200                    39

    So it comes down to Milwaukee. In an area that large the overall county % may be invalid as a basis for projection.  If the 900 missing votes in the other 3 counties vote with the rest of the county Kloppenburg will still have a lead. Milwaukee can then either add to it or possibly flip the overall total to Prosser.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:22am

    At 11 30 EDT Kloppenburg's ahead by 300  votes with about 1500 still missing. 


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:35am

    Well you sure got me feelin better about this.

    I would have felt a lot better if she were winning by a million votes.

    I thought Wisconsin was really mad at Walker.


    by Richard Day on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:37am

    At 11 40 Kloppenburg has a 200 vote lead with 3 precincts missing.

    1 in Jefferson  which represents about 400 votes. She had 42% of the vote in the rest of the county. If that holds true in the missing precinct that will cut her lead to about 150.

    2 are in Milwaukee. Probably represents about 600 votes. She had 57% in the rest of the county. If she holds 40% in these remaining precincts she would still have the lead statewide.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 11:52am

    In a 4 person primary election  Prosser got 55%, Kloppenburg, 25 and the other two candidates 20 between them.. That suggested he should have achieved at least 60% in this election. During the campaign Prosser closely identified himself with Walker.. That seems to have cost him ten points. . 


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 12:19pm

    At noon Kloppenburg had a 220 vote lead with only one precinct missing. It is from rural Jefferson County which Prosser has carried so far by 58 to  42% Jefferson' s precincts average 500, If that applies to the missing precinct Prosser will gain 130 votes leaving Kloppenburg ahead 90 (wow!).

    For Prosser to gain enough to completely overtake Kloppenburg her % of the vote in the missing precinct would have to drop from 42% to 27%  which would be black swan.

    I officially designate Kloppenburg as the winner. Now on the recount.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 1:01pm

    Okay. so this goes to the WI supreme court, right? And say, hopefully, Prosser recuses himself. That leaves 3 dems and 3 republicans. Which means ... what, given the inevitable party-line vote?


    by Obey on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 1:04pm

    Walker will offer to utilize his experience arbitrating the dispute about government employees right to collective bargaining pointing out that otherwise it will reach the US Supreme Court and we know by now what they'll do.5 to 4.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 2:06pm

    Kloppenburg won by 204 votes

     

    http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/119308059.html

     


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/06/2011 - 4:10pm

    It's up to Prosser to request a recount. Which I have no doubt he'll be instructed to do by the Kochs who financed his expensive campaign.

    The disputes  will be referred to a judge chosen by the head of the state supreme court- whom Prosser has referred to as a bitch and has threatened to destroy.

    No doubt there's a route  by which his/her rulings can be referred to the federal legal system and theoretically all the way to the Supreme Court which IMHO will reject it under a  return to its pre Bush v Gore policy of refusing state electoral disputes


    by Flavius on Thu, 04/07/2011 - 9:24am