Donal: Is Occupy Over?
Ramona's Piece de la Resistance (Including Pics of Obama, Romney, FDR)
dagblog To Give Away Logoed Hairshirt To Most Effective Lamenter Of Left's Ineptitude
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Donal: Is Occupy Over? Ramona's Piece de la Resistance (Including Pics of Obama, Romney, FDR) dagblog To Give Away Logoed Hairshirt To Most Effective Lamenter Of Left's Ineptitude |
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The hallmark of a fad is that it is decidely short-lived. Perhaps the most famous example is the pet rock. It's not surprising that it was the brain child of an ad man. After all, advertising can create demand. Can it sustain demand? Not, apparently, for pet rocks.
I'm pretty sure Twitter is a fad. I've commented on previous posts here about how the MySpace phenomenon took off. In a nutshell: MySpace allowed people to do what they wanted with the web, namely to easily set up a personal web page that could be linked to friends' pages, without having to learn the lingua franca of the web. It wasn't that MySpace did something that was technically exceptional. It used existing technology to increase accessibility and thereby accessed a new audience.
What does Twitter offer? In a word: Nothing. Or perhaps less than nothing, given that the only thing Twitter offers that RSS doesn't is a hard limit on datagram size - the now famous 140 character limit that we all loved so much on our cell phones.
Then why is it so popular? Twitter bears some similarity to MySpace in that it brings an existing technology model, namely RSS (although admittedly a crippled version), to a new audience. Also, an endorsement from Oprah never hurts. I worked in a book store in the late 90s. We had to be on our toes anytime Oprah rubber stamped a new book. The phone would start ringing off the hook before the show was over.
I hear she endorsed a guy named Obama for President. Whatever happened to him?
Anyhow.
What are the long-term prospects for Twitter like? After all, MySpace is still very popular. Will Twitter follow suit? My guess: No. Why do I think this? It's because the distance between MySpace and HTML is much greater than the distance between Twitter and RSS. Also, learning HTML doesn't negate MySpace. In fact, it can enable you to "enhance" your MySpace page, typically resulting in an unreadable, seizure-enducing mess that makes me want to rip out my eyes so that I can stuff them into my ears, thus putting a stop to the T-Pain soundtrack that you have so kindly embedded. Learning about RSS, on the other hand, makes you realize that you have no need for Twitter. It's vastly more flexible, nearly ubiquitous and, this is key, is really no harder to use once you know that it exists.
This article in today's Computerworld confirms that although people are flocking to Twitter en masse, they aren't sticking around:
It seems that while people are joining the micro-blogging site in droves, a whole lot of them don't sticking around for long. A Nielsen Co. report released yesterday shows that 60% of Twitter users do not return to the microblogging site the next month. And for the 12 months prior to Oprah Winfrey joining Twitter this month with great media fanfare, the site had a retention rate of less than 30%.
Ouch. Perhaps this is because the site is so young? Perhaps not:
Compared to the early years of social networking giants Facebook and MySpace, Twitter's retention is still bad. Both Facebook and MySpace had twice the retention rate that Twitter does now, Nielsen reported. When their audiences ballooned, so did their retention rates. Both companies now have about a 70% retention rate.
For what it's worth, the pet rock fad lasted for about six months. Twitter has more capital behind it, but they've already tapped the Poperah. She can lead them to Twitter, but she can't make them tweet - at least not indefinitely.
Perceptive Dagblog readers know the difference between Obama, Romney and Bush:
Obama NYT today: .how President Obama’s thinking about what he once called “a war of necessity” began to radically change less than a year after he took up residency in the White House....The aide told Mr. Obama that he believed military leaders had agreed to the tight schedule to begin withdrawing those troops just 18 months later only because they thought they could persuade an inexperienced president to grant more time if they demanded it. “Well,” Mr. Obama responded that day, “I’m not going to give them more time.”...Mr. Obama concluded in his first year that the Bush-era dream of remaking Afghanistan was a fantasy...
Mitt Romney, Feb. 2012 : LAS VEGAS -- LAS VEGAS -- Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney on Wednesday night blasted President Obama and his administration for “putting in jeopardy” the nation’s military mission by signaling it hopes to end its combat mission in Afghanistan by the middle of 2013.
Appearing at a campaign rally here shortly after landing in Nevada, Romney said Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta’s statement Wednesday that U.S. forces would transition from a combat mission in Afghanistan next year “makes absolutely no sense.”....
George W. Bush, from May, 2003: BBC - "We do not know the day of final victory, but we have seen the turning of the tide... Free nations will press on to victory,"
Bush Afghanistan strategy : Gen. Douglas E. Lute, who had spent the last two years of the Bush administration trying to manage the many trade-offs necessary as the Iraq war consumed troop and intelligence resources needed in Afghanistan, arrived with a PowerPoint presentation. The first slide that General Lute threw onto the screen caught the eye of Thomas E. Donilon, later President Obama’s national security adviser. “It said we do not have a strategy in Afghanistan that you can articulate or achieve,” Mr. Donilon recalled three years later. “We had been at war for eight years, and no one could explain the strategy.”
Mitt Romney isn’t very far into the vice presidential selection process. But according to a dedicated band of conspiracy theorists, the pick is all but a lock: Sen. Marco Rubio.
That’s the current thinking among a worldwide collection of activists who are obsessed with the secretive Bilderberg Group, an alternating roster of global power players who loom as large — if not larger — in the online fever swamps of the fringe as the Trilateral Commission or the Council on Foreign Relations.
Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0512/76518.html#ixzz1vN5egowz
Aristotle and Plato didn’t agree on much, but they were united in identifying wonder as the origin of their profession. As Aristotle said, “It is owing to their wonder that men . . . first began to philosophise.” This idea appeals to scientists, who frequently enlist wonder as a goad to inquiry. “I think everyone in every culture has felt a sense of awe and wonder looking at the sky,” wrote Carl Sagan in 1985, locating in this response the stirrings of a Copernican desire to know who and where we are.
Yet that is not the only direction in which wonder may take us. To Thomas Carlyle, wonder sits at the beginning not of science, but of religion. That is the central tension in forging an alliance of wonder with science: will it make us curious, or induce us to prostrate ourselves in pitiful ignorance? We had better get to grips with this question before we too hastily appropriate wonder to sell science. That is surely what is going on when pictures from the Hubble Space Telescope are (unconsciously?) cropped and coloured to recall the sublime iconography of Romantic landscape painting, or the Human Genome Project is wrapped in biblical rhetoric, or the Large Hadron Collider’s proton-smashing is depicted as “replaying the moment of creation”. The point is not that such things are deceitful or improper, but that if we want to take that path, we should first consider the complex evolution of the relation between science and wonder.
[....]
Pretending that science is performed by people who have undergone a Baconian purification of the emotions only deepens the danger that it will seem alien and odd to outsiders, something carried out by people who do not think as they do. Daston believes that we have inherited a “view of intelligence as neatly detached from emotional, moral and aesthetic impulses, and a related and coeval view of scientific objectivity that brand[s] such impulses as contaminants”. It is easy to understand the historical origins of this attitude: the need to distinguish science from credulous “enthusiasm”, to develop an authoritative voice, to strip away the pretensions of the mystical Renaissance magus who acquired knowledge through personal revelation. We no longer need these defences, however; worse, they become a defensive reflex that exposes scientists to the caricature of the emotionally constipated boffin, hiding within thickets of jargon.
... We’re trying to harness photosynthesis. A key part of photosynthesis is what happens when the sun goes down. Cells convert CO2 into sugar and fat molecules. And they store the fat to burn as energy to get them through the night ... We’re trying to coax our synthetic cells to ... store far more fat than they actually were designed to do, so that we can harness it all as an energy source and use it to create gasoline, diesel fuel, and jet fuel straight from carbon dioxide and sunlight. This would shift the carbon equation so we’re recycling CO2 instead of taking new carbon out of the ground and creating still more CO2. But it has to be done on a massive scale to have any real impact on the amount of CO2 we’re putting into the atmosphere, let alone recovering from the atmosphere.
... We envision facilities the size of San Francisco. And 10 or 15 of those in this country. We need sunlight, seawater, and non-agricultural land, but you need a lot of photons to drive this. You need a lot of surface area of sunlight to do that. It’s a great use for Arizona. Lots of sunlight there.
... If we can’t get some key scientific breakthroughs within the next couple of years, it probably won’t happen in 10 years. So it’s something that’s really dependent on fundamental science. But we’re already able to do things that were once seen as impossible.
... I think the new anti-intellectualism that’s showing up in politics today is a symptom of our not discussing these issues enough. We don’t discuss how our society is now 100 percent dependent on science for its future. We need new scientific breakthroughs—sometimes to overcome the scientific breakthroughs of the past. A hundred years ago oil sounded like a great discovery. You could burn it and run engines off it. I don’t think anybody anticipated that it would actually change the atmosphere of our planet. Because of that we have to come up with new approaches. We just passed the 7 billion population mark. In 12 years, we’re going to reach 8 billion. If we let things run their natural course, we’ll have massive pandemics, people starving. Without science I don’t see much hope for humanity.
Having been the one to claim "faster and deeper than ever before" or some such thing, I am willing to walk that back. I still think it may have done so albeit in a fleeting way.
This low retention rate would work well with what I have heard from "core" twits who wish there were fewer people with higher quality - the good ole days. The reality is (as pointed out before) that not everyone has something worth saying let alon broadcast to the world. So perhaps a lower participation rate would reduce the inevitable noise.
I am not one to argue that popularity=quality/value. But I do think that by something gaining traction via popularity will facilitate development. I also think there is a place for each level of communication, Twitter, RSS, Blog, Email, Voice, Video, etc. and look forward to all of these forms continuing down the convergence path.
Can you have your RSS feed text you when certain feeds come in?
My phone has support for RSS feeds, but some may not. Even so, it's pretty easy to set up the RSS->e-mail connection and most wireless providers have an e-mail-to-SMS gateway. Most RSS news readers can be configured for e-mail alerts and web-based solutions, like those offered by Google, mean that users don't even need install additional software to get this done. Just fire up Google Reader, add your RSS feeds of choice and point your e-mail alerts at your provider's SMS gateway.
How many steps was that again? I thought I had graduated past email-to-sms after the dot-com bubble.
My support for the concept is that this provides a layering of my notification system. I use RSS, but certaqin people/blogs get qualified for a higher notification rate. My RSS feed is so big, I do not have time to skim it regularly.
Like Dagblog does.
That may be your approach to management, but that's not some inexorable result of the technology. I find your notion of "layers" in this respect to be confused. What is a "higher notification rate"? You can prioritize sources, and to what devices notifications from each of these sources is delivered. You can also choose whether you'd like full feeds or just headlines. If you want your RSS experience to be exactly like Twitter, it can be. Twitter, however, can only be what it is, which isn't much.
In all seriousness, what RSS reader do you use?
And more importantly, does it support tip joy?
I use several. I use Firefox and have some live bookmarks set up. I have a lot of feeds in Google Reader. I have an application called NetNewsWire that I run when I want instant alerts. My phone has two that I use, one built in and the one in Opera.
Tipjoy is apparently an electronic payment system? Like PayPal?
Yes on Tip Joy - when I first saw this flit by in the headlines, I thought it was pretty damn stupid (similar to your response on twitter). Now that I understand the use of twitter, the concept of using it as a micro-payment tool makes sense. How realistic of a business model, I am not sure.
I am glad I have investigated this more RSS/twitter concept - the finding of the FF plug-in feedly might have answered my questions/desires for information aggregation/management. My experience with google reader has always been mixed, althought the recent advancements has changed this. Merged with twitter, however we have created information crack.
I have not been that interested in instant notifications until I got my Mac (a 15 year hiatus) and had growl announcements for my email. Now I am a mess.
If you're a Growl fanatic, you should definitely give NetNewsWire a try.
I just found feedly . . . I might have a new love as it integrates a number of things.
I had a pet rock when I was eight. It died.
Tragically, many pet rocks had to be put down for attacking people.
Love the new avatar, Orlando.
Been meaning to say that. Something about it is very strong. Maybe it is because I have small truck load of them at my house.
They hurt when you step on them - the arch of the foot really does not appreciate the shape/bulk.
You people are all on drugs. And you're making me reconsider books. Heck of a communications technology. Just lies there. Nice long time-lags. I like that.
Cool.