MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
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MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Commentary has a summary of the Obama administration's record in the Middle-East. It makes for dismal reading.
I'd been wondering why Dagblog pays so little attention to foreign policy. The world outside is burning, but Dagbloggers are rolling around with their heads up their arses fighting over the US Civil War of 150-years ago (should whites pay reparations? Should southerners fly the flag?)
I thought it was because Wolraich was away writing a book, and Acanuck was seeing stars, but now I think there's a simpler explanation: embarrassment.
Comments
I think the simpler explanation (which is, in fact, embarrassing) is that as much as we might rail against aspects of our culture, Dagbloggers are still affected by it. We often go for the easy-to-have-an-opinion about low-hanging fruit over the more relevant pieces on foreign policy. That's not to say that foreign policy doesn't get discussed here, but you're absolutely correct that it doesn't get the amount of attention that it should, both in terms of the amount of items being posted on it, as well as the number of comments that get posted on items about it.
That said, Dagblog is a bit of a democracy/meritocracy: to see more attention posted to foreign policy, post more about foreign policy (as you did here).
I thin the article you posted is well written while having the merit of having plenty of stuff that we can disagree on, so hopefully it will generate some discussion.
Here's some questions to get started:
Again, that's not to say the article is poorly written or that Obama can do no wrong, I'm partly playing devil's advocate here (I say "partly", because I definitely feel that the author overstates the case, and I have a hard time imagining foreign policy would be better under a President McCain or President Romney), but I hope these are questions that can lead to a good discussion.
by Verified Atheist on Wed, 05/28/2014 - 11:25am
Clearly, there's no way of knowing if things would have been better were McCain or Romney handling them. All we know is what there is. We can ask ourselves whether, after 5 years of Obama's administration, things are better or worse than they were for the residents of each country, for the United States, and for the world.
I don't have the time (or the knowledge) to answer your questions. But I'll try a few.
9. What "Jordan conspiracy theory"? Jordan is scared, with good reason. It is one of the weakest states in the region, and has relied (covertly) for years on the Israeli military umbrella, which is itself dependent on US military aid. Now it sees the US abandoning former allies, cozying up to Iran, and putting space between itself and Israel. At the same time, it has to deal with hundreds of thousands of refugees from Syria. So it's no wonder that they're scrambling for help from wherever they can find it. Wouldn't you be scared?
2. Ghadaffi had abandoned nuclear development when he saw that Bush was serious. He had, in effect, joined the group of dictators described as "He may be an SOB, but he's our SOB". By helping to bring him down, the US sent a message to other SOBs, telling them "Don't rely on the US". I think Assad in Syria got the message, and also saw what the US did to its longstanding ally Mubarak, and that is what hardened his heart. I don't think the civil war in Syria would have taken the course it did, if not for Lybia.
And the residents of Lybia are certainly worse off now.
3. It's my own (probably paranoid) opinion, shared by noone I know, that the US took a decision long ago to let Iran go nuclear. Probably as far back as Bush the Father, maybe further. All US administrations since then have continued the policy. Their efforts have been directed not at Iran, but at Israel, trying to placate it, and prevent a pre-emptive strike. Now that Iran is close to crossing the threshold, US dissimulation has become more obvious, bu it was there all along. Obama is no worse than the others, in this respect.
As to why the US should want a nuclear Iran, I have no idea.
by Lurker on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 2:59am
Regarding 9, I was referring to this bit the author wrote:
Regarding 2, I thought the objection was to "leading from behind", not getting involved in all in Syria. This is what has been so weird about some objections to his actions in Syria: you have some detractors saying he shouldn't have gotten involved at all and other detractors saying he should have been more involved (which is what I thought this particular author was advocating). In some bizarre cases, it seems you have detractors saying both at the same time. The only way to address your concerns, however, would seem to have been him getting involved on the other side. (Not a position I've heard anyone advocate, and of course, not one you're explicitly advocating or probably even implicitly advocating.)
I think you're misreading the US's position in Iran, both with respect to Obama and his predecessors, but of course we're both guessing. I think the US might be suffering from a "once bit, twice shy" phenomenon there, and the fact that Iran has support from Russia doesn't help. We don't want Iran to have nuclear weapons, but we also don't want to start a war with Russia.
Edit to add: I appreciate the thoughtful responses. My knowledge of foreign affairs is somewhat limited, and I haven't done any significant research here.
by Verified Atheist on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 8:11am
Khadafy was hardly "our" dictator. We lifted sanctions because he complied with some of our demands, but that didn't make him our ally.
by Aaron Carine on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 11:14am
by EmmaZahn on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 9:38am
Here is an interesting BBC op-ed response to Obama's commencement speech. I believe the crux of it resides in this bit:
Edit to add: I believe John Hulsman (the author) has more faith in the American people than do I.
by Verified Atheist on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 1:17pm
A little unrealistic of Hulsman to expect the Commander-in-chief to be that negative when addressing his spanking new Army officer corps.
Nevertheless, the cadets did applaud when Obama's statements about pulling back from Afganistan and Gitmo and when he talked about greater transparency.
Did Hulsman read the whole thing? Did you?
by EmmaZahn on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 1:38pm
I can't speak for Hulsman, but no, I did not read the whole thing.
by Verified Atheist on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 1:50pm
The big, unwarranted assumption around a lot of foreign policy talk is that the U.S. has a lot more control over events, has a lot more power to influence the outcome of events, than it has. There are other actors out there with minds and interests of their own. And when the topic is how those other actors should behave, then they have the advantage of being in the driver's seat.
It's one thing to criticize major, voluntary actions that are pretty clearly bone-headed, e.g., the invasion of Iraq. It's another thing to say that, "If only President X had done X, country Y wouldn't be unraveling or on the cusp of getting a nuclear weapon." Presidents can act, cajole, threaten, organize all they want...but there's always the other guy (actually many other guys) on the other side of the chess board.
Our current view of ourselves in the world was forged in WWII and just after when the U.S. was the unsurpassed leader, and only the USSR was a military competitor of any weight. Things have changed, but we haven't changed our worldview.
by Peter Schwartz on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 1:29pm
Seems a bit like hand-wringing. Sure, there are other actors out there, but that's why we pay billions for intelligence: to predict what they'll do.
And what they'll do depends on what they think we'll do. Do you deny the value of deterrence? I think it was Kissinger who said that the first duty of any American president is to convince his opponents that he is insane: that he is willing to destroy the world if the US is attacked.
It's impossible to know how things would have played out if President X had not done X. But do you think Russia would have undertaken the Ukraine adventure, or China would have started provoking its neighbours, if Bush were still president?
by Lurker on Sat, 05/31/2014 - 3:38pm
I do. I also think these acts of aggression are insignificant from a global and historical point of view. The world will carry on just as it did before Russia seized Crimea. If these conflicts lead to war, it's a different story.
by Michael Wolraich on Sat, 05/31/2014 - 5:51pm
Thinking it over, I guess you're right, at least about Russia. Putin tweaked Bush's tail in Georgia, and got no response. That probably sealed Ukraine's fate. If Bush let him get away with it, he knew there would be no problems with Obama.
Pity the other former USSR vassals who thought they could break for freedom and independence, and now sit in fear and trembling waiting to see where Russia's gaze will focus once it digests the Crimea, while the US turns away and says things like: "There are other actors out there with minds and interests of their own", and "no one really knows what to do". Meanwhile, Russia "welcomes little fishes in / with gently smiling jaws".
by Lurker on Sun, 06/01/2014 - 11:01am
I do pity them, just as I pitied them them in Soviet days. But we did not go to war for them then, and I would not go to war for them now.
Some would have us posture and assume a warlike pose to scare the crocodile, but I don't much believe in brandishing weapons we don't intend to use. Sooner or later, the crocodile will call our bluff.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 9:58am
What, then, is the point of NATO, and why did we try to extend it?
by Lurker on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 5:05pm
The NATO alliances, presumably, are not bluffs. The original purpose was Soviet containment. Americans concluded that Western Europe was worth going to war for.
I don't fully understand the post Cold War expansion, but Russia was not seen as an imminent threat when it began. I think it had more to do with ensuring political stability after the Soviet Union fell. In any case, we are now committed to defending these countries, unlike Ukraine and Georgia.
by Michael Wolraich on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 8:53pm
Well, it's nice to be able chuckle/be aghast at Putin's chutzpah in Crimea than to think your country could be next - as they say about ham and eggs, the chicken's invested but the pig's committed.
A Safe European Home isn't just about nice roads and trade agreements. Every time we see an Arab Spring country pop up and then pop down again I'm reminded of the democratic norms & military requirements involved in keeping the EU growing.
A lot of folks are euroskeptics and have great schadenfreude over the meltdowns in Greece and elsewhere, but these are conditions that used to inspire war, not meetings of banking ministers.
by AnonymousPP (not verified) on Tue, 06/03/2014 - 12:59am
Not sure entirely of your meaning in this post, but this last bit could be progress.
by Peter Schwartz on Tue, 06/03/2014 - 7:44am
Yes, instead of another Balkan War, we're coordinating bailouts.
EU countries are still cursing Germans, but they're not sucking on the wrong side of a gun.
by PeraclesPlease on Tue, 06/03/2014 - 7:59am
Let's take a step back here in the interest of real politik...
What was the "break for freedom"? How did it take place?
Did the U.S. send its military to the Warsaw Pact's border and demand the release of the countries behind the Iron Curtain?
Even if we give Reagan credit for winning the Cold War, how did he win it? By threatening war or by writing a lot of big checks for new military systems?
Didn't Reagan and Gorby hold talks about reducing the threat of nuclear war?
My point is this: The break for freedom you speak of came about through a process that was internal to the countries who broke away and to the USSR. And was abetted by talks with the West. It's only in the retellings of the Myth of the Evil Empire that Ron The Gunslinger sauntered down Main Street and out drew Gorby The Black Hat and set the town free.
As I recall, Gorby made an economic calculation: The USSR couldn't continue to ratchet up military spending to match the US's military spending. More importantly, I suspect, he wanted his people to enjoy the fruits of a free(r) economy.
Putin isn't Gorby, and vulnerable animals can make rash moves, which is why we need to calculate carefully in our responses to his actions.
But the economic calculus hasn't gone away for Putin, either. He sees that his country is an economic basket case. He doesn't want to risk crippling sanctions. And we, actually, don't want to rebuild our military to its Cold War levels, I don't think.
Pride seems to enter into Putin's calculations, so it would be important, IMO, to allow him to keep some face. Carrots and sticks.
But military sticks didn't set those countries free and won't protect them unless, MAYBE, Putin decides to retake the former Warsaw Pact countries. I doubt we're going to go to war directly with a country with advanced nuclear weapons. Don't bluff an action you're not prepared to take.
by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 10:27am
Nobody has suggested bluffing nuclear war. Even Putin didn't; he just shifted his troops around. So could we.
I agree "we need to calculate carefully in our responses", but our responses should be more than just turning our backs and saying "It's all yours, Valerie." "Presidents can act, cajole, threaten, organize...."
by Lurker on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 5:16pm
What would be the point of "moving our troops around"?
I think direct combat between nuclear powers raises the spectre of nuclear war. Especially if the war escalates and stalemates at the conventional level.
American and Russian soldiers fighting each other directly would certainly scare me.
by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 10:43pm
What would be the point of "moving our troops around"?
Ask Obama and NATO. Here are some links:
http://articles.economictimes.indiatimes.com/2014-06-03/news/50301614_1_...
http://news.yahoo.com/nato-agrees-readiness-action-plan-counter-russia-2...
by Lurker on Thu, 06/05/2014 - 4:14am
Have you discussed what you think should be done about Crimea or Ukraine or Syria or any of the other hot spots you think Dagblog has neglected? And why?
I can't remember...
by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 10:29am
FWIW, here's a graf from a newsletter whose recent Russian investments are all way up...
"The big news is that Putin is backing off and stocks are running hard. The Micex, Russia's exchange, is up 28.64% from its March 2014 low. Inflows are once again on the rise, which suggests people are beginning to come to terms with what we knew in the first place... Russian equities were tremendously undervalued."
I don't know how you feel about the geopolitical prognosticatory prowess of Mr. Market, but he appears to be sanguine about Mr. Putin's plans for world domination. Of course, he could be wrong.
Edit to add: And now it does appear that Obama wants to bolster Europe militarily.
by Peter Schwartz on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 7:19pm
I'll leave the "hand wringing" judgment aside. Seems a bit tendentious.
We do pay billions for our intelligence and, given that, it's remarkable how often it's been wrong about the big things.
• The Tet Offensive
• The fall of the USSR
• Saddam's nuclear capabilities
Or how often our presidents have been willing to lie about what the intelligence told them. And not just tactical or strategic dissembling, but lying to promote policies that did the American people great harm.
Asking me whether I believe in "deterrence" is so broad, it's hard to answer it. Sure; why not? But what does that have to do with this discussion?
Moreover, deterrence, and certainly what deterrence used to mean in Kissinger's heyday, meant nuclear deterrence in a world divided up between the U.S. and the USSR and maybe China. MAD. Today, it seems to me, when there are many actors and many different valences, it's harder to know what it means.
For example, if we feel we need to deter Iran, then why in the world did we depose Saddam, who was a very effective deterrent against Iran? Kept them tied up for a decade. Now we have no Saddam, but an Iraq that's closer to Iran than ever. We lost huge blood and treasure to boot, and I'm not sure Al Maliki likes Israel all that much either.
In terms of what Putin would have done with Bush, again, we don't know. But he did threaten Georgia, did he not? And he didn't force Syria to agree to give up chemical weapons after looking Bush in the eye, did he? Chemicals like the ones Bush used as one of his rationales for going into Iraq, yes?
Anyway, I don't find these counterfactual arguments very enlightening all the way around. There is so much that is unique to each situation that it's sort of silly to replace one element, e.g., the president, and try to make sense of world events. To me, anyway.
In terms of the lack of foreign policy discussions here of late, you must have missed PP and Aaron's tag team match: Ho and Mao v Allende and Chavez.
by Anonymous PS (not verified) on Sat, 05/31/2014 - 8:08pm
Mr. Greenwald's article could have been written by a high school student completing homework in the morning just before it was due:
Assume that some objective (presented without discussion) was not achieved because of the decisions actually made; Act like the opposite course of action would have brought about the objective as a matter of logical necessity.
Nobody I know from my work life talks that way without being ridiculed. Why should this Greenwald guy be listened to with respect? He is not making any arguments.
by moat on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 9:03pm
My eyes are bad.
Which Greenwald article are you referring to?
by Peter Schwartz on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 9:21pm
Sorry, sorry, I thought you were referring to Glenn Greenwald.
Couldn't imagine him writing for Commentary.
by Peter Schwartz on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 9:23pm
That would have been odd.
But I am glad you brought Glenn up. He makes arguments all the time.
A point of contrast.
by moat on Thu, 05/29/2014 - 9:44pm
Greenwald's article makes dismal reading because it's dismally written.
Actually Greenwald's making an argument - that Bush didn't fuck up too bad, that he only rocked the boat in 2 countries but left our precious support of other convenient dictators in place. Maybe he'll resurrect Cheney as a modern misunderstood Churchill in his next piece.
I think he ignores the PR disaster and terrorist response from Bush with: prisoner abuse at Abu Ghraib, Gitmo and our dark site at Baghram, illegal renditions to friendly allies to torture for us, founding our modern drone attack program in undeclared wars (the "Bush Docrine" as Palin knows well) with a 40% civilian kill rate, and simply leaving us with the dangerous PR misimpression that the surge worked.
One of the funniest lines in his column is describing the IDF as "attacked by armed jihadists ready for battle" - here's someone who believes his own shit - kitchen knives and wrenches used against gunboats with soldiers in full gear firing live rounds that actually shot people? You'd never know from Greenwald's description that it was a bunch of by usual definition "unarmed" peace protesters, not Al Qaeda with stinger missiles. (Imagine our response to Qaddafi or Assad firing down on an unarmed boat or the US parks authority firing on an unkempt OWS-held camp-in?). And from this, Greenwald launches into his attack on Erdogan and everything Turkish.
Greenwald criticizes Obama for leading from behind on Libya and then swallowing the get-involved arguments in Syria. Which is it? Of course any protesters will use human rights claims to get foreign powers involved. (I wonder why Greenwald doesn't respect the Turkish protesters in this way). But what is Greenwald expecting as a precedent for overthrowing governments for internal abuses? Putin's playing on this right now in Crimea and East Ukraine - and the precedents were set under both Bush and Obama.
But it's hard to see Obama as being worse by not starting major bloody ground wars. The cache of weapons Libyan rebels grabbed from storehouses is a lot less than the cache Iraqi militants grabbed under Bush's guard, as well as those funneled by Western and Mideast governments into Syria.
2nd funniest line in the article: "By the end of Bush’s presidency, some saw the United States as fearless..." Uh, like who? Dick Cheney's daughter? I can think of my "-less" adjectives - feckless, pointless, shameless, dickless, et al.
On Iran, Greenwald lets loose - every tear-jerking moment (Neda), every suspicious plot (Iranians killing Saudis with a bomb in DC?) "The threats against the Jewish state and the United States were constant." and then he names 1, a doubtful plot probably pulled from the FBI's infiltration department archives of enticing Arab kids to attack with pizza boxes. [counter this with Mossad actually poisoning nuclear scientists with syringes while riding motorcycles]
3rd funniest line (ok, deserves higher): "Since 1979, successive American administrations have made extensive diplomatic overtures in hopes of negotiating away the Iranian threat, and they have all failed." uh right, arming Hussein to attack Iran was quite the overture, resulting in 1 million dead. Arms for hostages to build up the Nicaraguan Contras - just another day in diplomacy. The Stuxnet virus better called an "underture". Did I mention all the ex-governors/mayors/CIA/FBI/State/DoJ officials who anti-Iranian terrorist org MEK lobbied to get off the US terrorist list?
And then Greenwald goes on to build up Rouhani as an antichrist, Trojan horse, faux-moderate there to carry out Blofeld's destructive dream of world domination and chaos.
And by that point, I'm too tired to continue reading this nonsense.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 05/30/2014 - 9:01am
I think you may be letting your hatred of Bush blind you. The invasion of Iraq left a lot of bad sequelae (Gitmo, drones), but it also achieved an important objective: the overthrow and killing of one of the bloodiest dictators in the world. (A pity he didn't continue on to Iran and North Korea.) It also put the wind up Ghadaffi (who gave up nuclear development) and Iran (which temporarily froze it). With Obama you get the Gitmo and the drones, but not the dead dictators.
by Lurker on Sat, 05/31/2014 - 1:56pm
In most cases, I don't think that overthrowing a dictator is an excuse for a war of aggression. The war killed vastly more people than Saddam killed in the ten years before the invasion; Iraq still has a terrible human rights record; the results have been strategically disastrous for the United States, and 4500 Americans are dead. I don't see how anyone can think this is a good thing.
by Anonymous (not verified) on Sat, 05/31/2014 - 5:06pm
I explained/halfway defended the initial Iraq invasion a hundred times to foreigners - sometimes when the pool table leaves you no shots, you just have to break up the table. However, you don't have to swallow the cue ball and shove the cue up your sphincter.
In short, we could have gotten rid of Hussein without 8 years of painful counterproductive occupation. This isn't Bush hatred - it's rather realpolitik and counting up the missteps and their actual costs.
Re: continuing on to Iran, you must know something I don't and more importantly what the IAEA doesn't - i.e. they haven't found any - and Iran's playing ball:
Your wish on North Korea is more valid, though we did much better bribing them to compliance than we have lately playing chicken.
and no, Ghadafi didn't "give up nuclear development" in any real sense - he never had a nuclear program worth proclaiming. What you seem to have missed is Qaddafi started cooperating with the US immediately after 9/11 - he didn't need the Iraq invasion to know the winds had changed.
"the overthrow and killing of one of the bloodiest dictators in the world" - another weird claim - yes, he was bloody when fighting Iran in the 1980's (with our support and encouragement), and when gassing the Kurds at Halabja- assuming a) they weren't fighting with the enemy and b) that Iran wasn't the one who did the gassing - and during the Al-Anfal genocide around '86-'88, and during the reprisals against the Kurds in 1991 (while Bush Sr. lifted the no-fly zone to let Hussein proceed). Oddly enough, the invasion of Kuwait only killed about 1000, despite hyperbole about babies in incubators.
Note the dates - basically, Hussein had ceased to be the bloodiest dictator by 2003, at least 12 years past his greatest hits, and was in the pathetic position of cooperating with UN arms inspectors *to their satisfaction*. It's roughly like killing Al Capone after he got out of Alcatraz and was getting treatment for advanced syphilis - relatively useless and in this case exceedingly counter-productive.
Etc., etc.
by PeraclesPlease on Sun, 06/01/2014 - 2:05pm
Well, if dead or deposed bad guys is the metric, then Obama gets two: Qaddafi and Mubarak to Bush's one. Without invading or sending in troops and at a fraction of the cost. I know conservatives tend to count pennies only when it comes to welfare programs, but a penny is a penny, yes?
And since you seem to want to say that anything that happens within our purview of power is "our doing," then we should probably put the Tunisian guy in Obama's column, too.
Now if you say that Mubarak was "our guy" and thus wasn't a "bad guy," I have two points to make. For all of the 1980s, Saddam was also "our guy." How did Reagan and Bush let him slip into the "not our bad guy" column, especially as they are deemed so good at getting tough with malefactors?
Seems to me that given all the help we gave Saddam (remember the photo op with Rumsfeld?), we should have been able to call a few of the shots.
Otherwise, what's the use of having him as "our guy"?
The other point counts more. Was X a good guy in the eyes of his people? No. Mubarak was a dictator, and dictatorships tend to brew bad things. In this, I think Bush was right: Promoting democracy is a good, as Bush might have said, anecdote to a lot that ails these countries economically and every other way. Bush just went about the promotion in the wrong way.
So allowing Mubarak to be overthrown by his own people was the right thing to do even if the aftermath has been a rollercoaster. Unfortunately, it's hard to get rid of a dictator in a gradual, systematic fashion that prepares the way for the next phase. They become more violent when threatened. Moreover, as we've seen, the opposition is a crazy quilt of groups we probably don't want to support.
But here again--since we're keeping score--at least you are--Obama got two bad guys (Assad and his ally, Putin) to give up some bad weapons. Seems a lot better than invading a country and finding NO weapons, yes?
Anyway, I don't usually go in for Maris v Mantle foreign policy discussions. They seem pointless to me. But if we're going to engage in this sort of debate, then Mantle is winning.
by Peter Schwartz on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 10:52am
If dead bodies, rather than pennies, are the metric, Saddam vastly outweighed Mubarak and Ghadaffi (counting Lockerbie) and "the Tunisian guy" put together.
And I thought it was Putin, not Obama, who got Assad to give up some bad weapons. It was also Putin who sold them to him in the first place, so will make a double profit when the time comes to resupply.
by Lurker on Mon, 06/02/2014 - 5:33pm
We'd have to do the addition to know for sure.
And we'd have to stipulate a way of deciding which dead count. Or how to count the dead.
However, you specified "dictators" above, so I was following your lead.
As to Putin, he didn't simply wake up one morning and decide he was going to persuade Assad to give up his chemical weapons. Something preceded it.
by Peter Schwartz on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 7:17pm
I vote for recognizing the Iran/Contra affair as at least being the second most ridiculous thing. It has the exquisite counter-position of an idealistic project being financed by those sworn to be our enemies to the bitter end of something or another.
Your point is taken that A. Greenwald is arguing that the Bushies did okay. But it is not really an argument since it isn't compared against other arguments that have been made. It is getting late on a Saturday night so I will be blunt. The question to be asked is the following:
Is the United States working to establish a "world order" that they will join and accept the conditions of membership or will they play the card of their military might to preserve the privileges they have won after a century of global conflict?
All other questions are side bets, made by nervous gamblers.
by moat on Sat, 05/31/2014 - 9:23pm
Some of our foreign policy stringers, such as acanuck, artappraiser, bslev, and lulu, have been absent lately, but that's not the only reason, I think.
Dagblog tends to thrive on controversy, and some of our Israel debates have been far more intense than the endless rehashing of the civil war. But other than Israel, there just isn't much foreign policy controversy in the U.S. these days--not counting the Benghazi tempest in a tea party.
The trouble, I think, is that no one really knows what to do. On one hand, there is little appetite for military intervention, even among Republicans. On the other, few people support isolationism. Meanwhile, the problems in the Middle East seem intractable and likely to damn us whether we do or don't.
So everyone's just muddling along, including the administration. When I feel like I know better than the leaders, I'm happy to burn them in effigy. But in the mideast these days, I just don't know what to do.
by Michael Wolraich on Fri, 05/30/2014 - 12:22am
Yes, it's easy to point out the problems, but much harder to define a way forward with any kind of rational reasoning for why it would work--coupled with a definition of what "works" means.
by Peter Schwartz on Fri, 05/30/2014 - 10:55am
Yes, it can be difficult to get a good *modern* conversation rolling. And yeah, ArtAppraisers news posts used to keep the variety coming, it's missed.
I've made dozens of references to EmptyWheel & surveillance, but the general attitude here is to condemn Snowden & forgive the surveillance.
If there's a mention of Greenwald, it's "he's obnoxious" - all about personality. Pretty much same on Manning.
Talk about Syria tends to drive to "Assad bad, overthrow him". Not too much discussion of the constitution in relation to overthrowing Libya more like, "well, the Europeans did it". I thought the revelations that Benghazi was a funneling site for the Syrian War might draw some talk - didn't.
I thought I'd get some response with the execution of an Iranian who ripped off a billion dollars, compared to our Wall Street scandals - occupy wall street goes hard core - nada.
Basically as you note, we're stuck with a lot of embarrassment - it's our side that's not withdrawing from Afghanistan (aside from taking credit before it's actually done). Our Iranian policy is just slightly less heated than Bush's - no credit for Iran destroying more nuclear fuel? Gitmo's still running as is the prison at Bagram - guess torture & human rights issues are passé in 2014, and we can ignore the Congressional reports. Crimea's the obvious outcome from foreign policy that ignores Russia & China, and focuses on the Mideast with no payoff to be expected - even another obligatory talk about Palestinian-Israeli peace talks. We've ceded global warming as anything we're going to be serious about.... We don't talk much to the Europeans except to demand they go along with us - especially our next war/sanctions/etc - we've kind of forgotten about building economies, trade, technology, etc.
So there you have it - easier to find people to argue about flags. Race and anything touching on Israeli politics are easy crowd pleasers, plus the insto-reaction to the day's scandals/headlines.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 05/30/2014 - 1:44am
by acanuck on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 12:15am
"It’s not enough for Netanyahu, who insists Iranian students not be taught the atomic table" - that's a keeper - he shoots, he scores!
(Actually, I think he'll let them keep non-volatile elements, but there's not a lot you can do once you've removed Hydrogen)
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 9:42am
To clear up any confusion, Peracles, I had trouble posting the above, so I emailed it to Michael and he put it in the thread for me, leaving his own fingerprints. I can assure you the opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the moderator.
by acanuck on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 1:46pm
Yes, I'd pegged it as your comment, not Michael's, thus the hockey reference. Must be that Canadian accent or laid back northern attitude ;-)
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 2:01pm
I changed the author to acanuck right after posting the comment in his name. And I would have gotten away with it too, if it weren't for that pesky sidebar cache, which stubbornly insists that I wrote the comment. Fucking sidebar cache.
Acanuck is one of my many sock puppets, of course. You can ignore his pathetic insistence that he has independent opinions. As the bard once said, the sock puppet doth protest too much.
by Michael Wolraich on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 4:16pm
Well, didn't FDR proclaim, "he may be a sock puppet, but he's our sock puppet"?
by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 5:12pm
If you can't read an opposing piece to the end because "it’s clear we don’t share a vocabulary", what hope is there for dialogue? If you can't talk to your opponent, then you can't persuade him/her, so you end up ramming your legislation through when you have a majority, and your opponent does likewise, leading to "an incoherent hodgepodge of self-righteous posturing and arbitrary actions/reactions". US foreign policy used to be bipartisan. Not any more, and this is not the fault of only one party.
It's easy to sneer at Netanyahu, but he's the pig in AnonymousPP's metaphor (above), while you're the chicken. If US intelligence makes a mistake about Iran, the mushroom cloud will rise over Tel Aviv, not New York. At least, the first. Could US intelligence miscalculate? See Anonymous PS (above).
I'm looking forward to you explaining cosmic inflation to a non-creationist.
by Lurker on Thu, 06/05/2014 - 4:34am
I'd say part of the break down in foreign policy consensus is due to the "end" of the Cold War. Back in the day, we had (really) only one enemy which we fought through proxy wars and various kinds of diplomacy. Everyone in the US agreed, more or less, that the USSR had a bad system, which we called, rightly or wrongly, communism.
There were a variety of ways to be against the USSR and its proxies, and we argued greatly over what to do about it, especially around Vietnam and South America, but the general layout of the geopolitical map was clear. Moreover, we had an overarching deterrent in place on both sides. MAD created a stalemate and a sort of consensus about the way the world worked and who was who.
Once that went away...once asymmetrical warfare became a reality...once highly destructive weapons with no return address were broadly distributed...once lots of "new" players asserted themselves and had the means to reach large audiences in fare away lands...and once lots of norms and set ways of thinking were splintered and replaced with highly charged 24-hour news and millions of different Internet voices (often anonymous voices), it became harder, maybe impossible, to maintain a consensus.
Maybe, even, not because there was so much genuine disagreement...and maybe, even, not because it's impossible to get to some semblance of the truth about what's going on in, say, Syria or Iran, though that's very hard to do...but because everyone's been liberated to enter into the discussion...a certain democracy among opiners, regardless of merit, has become a fact. "Oh yeah? Who sez? And who are you? And how do you know? You were wrong five times before--why believe you now?"
Millions of people now have instant access to LOTS of information about everything, but very little ability to verify whether any bit of information is true. You can say, "I won't accept any fact as a fact unless I see five independent sources for it," but then the Internet makes it incredibly easy for one person to simply pass along what he reads somewhere else, which then gets passed on again.
So one way around this is to vet one's sources. Some sources are reliable; others are not. Some have an ax to grind; others don't. Some are okay because they're grinding my ax. And so on. But still, vetting sources takes a lot of time, and even reliable sources can make big mistakes, and it's not entirely clear what a reliable way to vet a source would look like. You have to rely on what that person has said before and judge it by...what? How accurate the person was before? How important previous inaccuracies are and what weight they should carry when looking at new claims?
So when you read a few grafs and it becomes clear that the author has an ax to grind and isn't making genuine arguments which can be discussed, then there are no "receptors" (to use a biological metaphor) where an opposing view can attach and engage. For example, you started this off by saying, "Dagbloggers no longer discuss foreign policy." Later, you asked me, "Don't you believe in deterrence?" I asked, "If we believe in deterrence, and feel that Iran needs to be deterred, what sense does it make to take out Saddam? After all, he was 'our guy' throughout the 1980s?"
But I got nothing back from you on this point--and you claim at least to want a discussion. Don't get me wrong: I'm not miffed, and this happens all the time. I'm just pointing out that, in this example, I did take your starting point seriously--the need for deterrence--it was, for the instant, a point of commonality between you and me. So I have to wonder a bit whether you're after a discussion or just some folks to agree with you on XYZ. If so, then that stance, IMO, precludes commonality and consensus. To reach consensus, we need at least a few shared understandings.
by Peter Schwartz on Thu, 06/05/2014 - 11:33am
Peter, there were 50 comments to the submission, many of them, like yours, raising several points. As I said in reply to the first responder, Verified Atheist (who raised 11 questions): " I don't have the time (or the knowledge) to answer your questions." Nothing personal, and I'll try to deal with your point about deterrence at the end.
You question my motives, whether I'm "after a discussion or just some folks to agree with you on XYZ". As an atheist in the Dagblog Church of Obama-Is-God, I suppose I'm partly driven by evangelism: how could so many seemingly intelligent people be so deluded? Maybe I can shift some true believers into, at least, agnosticism. The Snowden leaks have shown that Obama is, indeed, omniscient and omnipresent, but perhaps his foreign policy failures will show that he's not omnipotent.
But if I lower myself into a pit of hissing leftists, there is a risk I may get bitten on the ankle, ie, that you will convert me to your worldview. That's a possibility. I think it's unlikely because I don't read the NYT, don't listen to NPR, don't watch CNN, and so miss out on daily reinforcement of the Received Wisdom.
I doubt I'll find folks to agree with me, but I do hope to enter a discussion. It's boring to read your own side's arguments all the time. I'm giving you and you're giving me a change of viewpoint.
About deterrence: I think in the 1980s we didn't recognize the danger from Iran, we considered it a bloody nuisance, nothing more. Hizbulla had not yet taken over Lebanon or fought Israel to a standstill. The Iranian nuclear programme was small and primitive, and didn't yet alarm anyone (other than Israel, but they kept things quiet). So we didn't feel the need for deterrence.
I've heard it suggested that Bush should have ignored Iraq and gone straight for the elephant in the room - Iran. But it's hard to focus on the elephant in the room when there's a rabid dog at the door. As of this writing, Iran has still not sent missiles from its territory into Israel or Saudi Arabia. Saddam did.
by Lurker on Fri, 06/06/2014 - 7:49am
Somehow I think Iran's the "Paper Tiger in the Room", or just a strutting Peacock, not quite an Elephant. Have they invaded anyone since Darius & Xerxes and the battle at Thermopyle?
With the Taliban running Afghanistan and the Wahabbi's running Saudi Arabia, and Hussein doing his best to rile up the region, Iran was almost the adult in the room - the US didn't exactly raise the average age over the last decade.
Iran had a lot of reforms through the 90's, and was seeking rapprochement with Europe. Bush pushed this success back - whether it was hatred for everything Clinton (just like he ignored the improvements in Serbia/Yugoslavia) or just an entrenched new agenda to reshape things, he undoubtedly made it worse. And Iran still doesn't have the enriched uranium to make anything dangerous, even though it's been 10 years since Lieberman was freaking out about it as our "serious" hawkish Democrat.
Give Iran observer status with the EU, pull the troops out of Afghanistan, give Assad some clear lines we care about or we carpet bomb, and let's spend that $100 billion a year some way useful.
by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 06/06/2014 - 11:28am
"If 'we don't share a vocabulary,' what hope is there for dialogue?" We're in agreement: none. Fortunately, none of us is in a position of power, so our lack of consensus has no impact on the prospect of world peace.
But my time is precious, and I have none to waste trying to change other people's worldviews. When it comes to the Middle East, delusional thinking appears to be the norm, and recent events are already sending the crazy talk into overdrive.
Just today, I read two articles -- in the JPost, Bibi hints to a cabinet committee he's thinking about unilateral withdrawal from the West Bank. In the NYT, Shmuel Rosen muses about the growing allure of unilateral annexation.
Seeming opposites, yet one common thread: the Palestinians are to have no say in their fate. Neither scenario requires their buy-in. Simple enough, but guaranteed to fail.
by acanuck on Fri, 06/06/2014 - 1:57am
You would never know from the A.G. article that Saudi Arabia exists and that the U.S. is deeply entangled in the deals made with them in terms of arms and money.
This isn't to say that focusing upon that sort of thing explains everything that is happening or points to a simple policy directive.
But to completely exclude the element from a discussion of the "Mideast" is nuts.
by moat on Wed, 06/04/2014 - 9:04pm