I am in the district just south of FL-13.  Sink carried all the northern precincts that are upper middle class that voted for Romney.  These people have good incomes up there. The older suburbs of St. Pete that was built in the 1950's and 60's is were the campaign collapsed.  She worked that area hard and had a GOTV plan.  This area just barely went for Obama.  It is an area has shifted more Latino and away from families that dominated the area after WWII.  The ones that lived there all their lives turned out to vote for Jolly.  He promised to defeat immigration reform.  For them it was all about race.  The elderly vote split even and the uber rich yacht owners on the coasts voted for Jolly. Her numbers was good until the last week when the air war took over.  The commercials were ugly from outside groups.  It turned people off from voting.  The air war for the Republican presidential primary for the state in 2012 was also very bad and the turn out for the republicans was a record low for the state primary.  I actually turned my TV off during the air war last month and did not turn it back on until after the election.  It was that bad.

I differ with 538 on their take of the higher income super zips.  I don't think that shift is that temporary.  For the most part they are very smart and they see the harm that congress is doing to the economy.  The austerity is cutting into their businesses and bonuses.  Jolly is a mess.  He may not survive in November.   

St. Pete was gerrymandered out after 2010 to make it safe for Young.  Tallahassee knew they were braking the state fair districting amendment that passed in 2010. But was buying him time to retire before the state supreme court redrew the map.  That ruling will not happen until 2015 after the midterms.  St Pete will be part of the county again and not part of Tampa.