538's Saturday's new polls

            Pollster                         Number                                                                                                                                   ______                          polled


    FL      St.Pete's polls               2733    Nelson      48   Scott     49

    TX     Change Research         1211    O'Rourke   49   Cruz      49

    MO   Remington Research    1429    McCaskill   47    Hawley   47

    FL    Targoz                              558   Nelson        45    Scott      49

    Looks like a long night Tuesday.


    Minor point.

    Accepting we can't win the Senate, as well as  controlling the House,we're likely to  gain  G​overnors next week . In some states with  Republican senators.

     Not wishing harm , but  should any Republican Senators be forced to withdraw  they may be at least temporarily replaced by a Democratic Appointee.

    Of course Pence will still be the tie breaker.


    not minor, if only people would realize their governor has a far greater effect on their lives than the president or their senator

    Nevada's Dem candidate for Senator tweeting back at Trump:

    I'm still undecided.

    I know Trump and the Republicans are lying grifters, and Trump lies up to 83 times a day. He's also a hate inciting racist, bragging misogynist, adulterer, convicted fraudster, tax evader, narcissist, bully and not since Josef Stalin has there been a Party like the Republican Party with members who are 100% worthless slimy bootlickers totally lacking in ethics or good faith.

    But  many Murricans are ascared Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer and Maxine Waters are conspiring to march a Soros-funded army of marauding gang bangers and terrorists across the border to murder white people and make kids get gay married and use transgender bathrooms. Or at least, that's what Trump says. 

    What's a liars word worth? A Party of liars? ..... Dunno....

    here's the GOP talking point in a nutshell which you are up against under a Trump presidency, NCD. From Trump's speech at a rally in TN tonight, live tweeted by Daniel Dale, here is the concluding statement:

    Trump says again that Democrats want to give power to "a corrupt, selfish ruling class that only looks out for themselves. You see it happening. But we stop it."

    — Daniel Dale (@ddale8) November 5, 2018

    He's rarely that succinct and his rally speeches are rarely that short, t's pretty obvious to me that as a final summary line, it was given to him by pros as important talking point.

    Every time a Dem talks elite in any way, that's the one they can really hurt with. (HalC types use it, too.)

    It's the political correctness, stupids, together with people on the internet and MSNBC telling people that they are idjits for voting non-Dem. You can't both be the party that gives priority attention and acknowledgement by it's elites to the resentments and grievances of minority tribals over whites and give back in kind to that ruling class slur. It doesn't work. The Dem elites want to talk about "dumb voters", they have to talk that they are equally dumb, not just the black working class are smart for voting Dem and white dumb for voting anti-Dem, to counteract this accusation. I.E., they have to talk class, as opposed to race, ethnicity or gender.

    Is it dumb that people fall for this? Yeah. But name calling those without education doesn't win them over, they dig in their heels and believe the Karl Rove line, for decades you haven't won them back from that. It still plays well everytime "they" are called stupid.

    I totally understand bashing them while doing an analysis. But I don't understand why any devoted partisan would do so. Seems real counter-productive to me. And in that vein, I totally get why Bernie Sanders is seen by some as not doing enough "outreach" to African Americans....because he didn't want to look like he was favoring one cultural tribe over another.

    Kapur is the National political reporter for Bloomberg News:

    Mildly interesting red-state trend: Heidi Heitkamp and Claire McCaskill are losing steam down the stretch while Joe Manchin, Joe Donnelly, Phil Bredesen and Beto O’Rourke are either ahead or closing in.

    — Sahil Kapur (@sahilkapur) November 4, 2018

    Amazing video showing blue invasion of Staten Island this morning, lessee if it works, hope nobody got hurt wink:

    Lawrence O'Donnell noticed it and says:

    Flav, they just announced Max Rose as the winner of Staten Island race on MSNBC !!! AMAZING! A blue Staten Island! With Trump as prez!  I always have thought of Staten Island as more Trump than Queens, if you know what I mean. Lawrence O'Donnell just came on and said he sort of suspected it might happen, because Rose was running such a flawless campaign. Reminds me of Beto running so strong in Texas. Here's the thing: it's not about party anymore. It's about the strength and charisma to the district of the individual running. More and more voters give a shit about the parties. They can read up on the individuals on line.

    Democrats appear to be winning seats in the state legislature. Dallas County appears to be going strongly Democratic.

    added at midnight just the candidates and their scores skipping the pollster and the size of the sample

    MO McCaskill  45   Hawley  46

    Ind Donnelly  44    Braun    4 2

    FL   Nelson    46    Scott     48

    Ariz  Sinema  48  McSally   49

    Mont Tester    50  Rosedale  42

    Tenn  Bredesal 49  The Rep ? 49

    MSNBC projects the House goes to Democrats. The Senate remains with the GOP. House can conduct investigations. 

    Edit to add:

    Female Democratic Governors elected in Michigan and New Mexico.

    2nd Edit tonadd:

    The Chair of the House Ways and Means Committee can request Trump’s tax returns from the IRS. 

    No finishing the wall. No more tax cuts for billionaires/millionaires. Obanacare may survive. Possibly, some DACA deal for some Wall. Medicare, SS will not be privatized.

    The core, mostly Evangelical, rural,  white GOP Base doesn't care about investigations of Republicans. Trump Jr could be filmed hauling gold out of Fort Knox and they'd still vote R.

    The Senate will continue to be controlled by a minority tribal group, rural whites in small, low voter participation, failing states. The courts will be conservative for 25 years or so.  Obamacare may be the last major progressive legislation we see for a very long time. Otherwise, it's kick the can down the road, and hope Trump policies don't crash the economy.

    There's some good news. But Ginsburg might die in the next two years.

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