The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    States with no physical proximity requirements

    By Flavius on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 2:39am |

                           April 10                      20th

    Nevada              2571                        3800

    North Dakota       293                          600

    South Dakota      528                         1140

    Nebraska             635                        1600

    Iowa                   1388                         3100

    Arkansas            1146                         1900

     

      

     

    Comments

    Did you see how states are aligning into federations on the left and right sides of the country in order to make coordinated decisions about reopening?

    This map is from April 16, there may be more now, I haven't checked:

    Yeah, some of the wild west interior states are going for "live free or die" or maybe "live free AND THEN DIE" model instead. 

    How will this work with the traditional "show your papers" thingie? Will California refuse Nevadans to cross their border as they might bring re-infection with them?

    Interesting side issue: note the purple coalition on the map includes several states which are notoriously famous for their electoral college votes deciding the presidency.


    by artappraiser on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 10:31am

    It's been done...

     

    https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2003-mar-09-me-then9-story.html

     

     


    by jollyroger on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 12:42pm

    Oh joy. NOT.:


    by artappraiser on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 1:32pm

    More on Barr's game plan:


    by artappraiser on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 1:40pm


    by artappraiser on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 2:05pm

    The statistics are challenged at the moment because of the difficulty of sorting out local events in relation to larger sections of people. In addition, the science is still in the first stages of figuring  out how to identify infected, recovered, immune, or dead people.

    But consider this graphic from John Hopkins:: Cumulative Cases

    Asking about what is happening in particular States is not separable from World models. Measured against that metric, the U.S. is particularly challenged.


    by moat on Tue, 04/21/2020 - 5:47pm


    by artappraiser on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 12:11am


    by artappraiser on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 12:24am

    YIKES, Georgia plans to open lots of businesses on Friday and restaurants on Monday!


    by artappraiser on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 4:19am

    wonders never cease (all depends on which whisperer gets to him first that day?)


    by artappraiser on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 1:22am

    Trump and minion Pence didn't just throw Gov. Kemp under the bus on this, they basically used him and shived him:

    WHAT BOTHERS ME ABOUT THAT- who convinced him to do that, overnight?

    Someone's got influence to make him say "absolutely not" to Kemp overnight. Whoever that is, they care about when things open and they didn't like it happening in GA right away.. Jvanka maybe? Some buddy from Mar a Lago that has lots of interest in GA? Etc.

    Cause they are all basically letting him babble anything he wants to, the black light and bleach shit today was humiliating to all of them

    Look at her for example, she's ready to vomit:

    But someone stood up to him and made him shiv Kemp.

    Why do these people continually put up with the humiliation?


    by artappraiser on Fri, 04/24/2020 - 1:11am

    Nevada Governor under a lot of pressure from Las Vegas mayor:


    by artappraiser on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 4:27am

    Southern governors create a Covid-19 coalition and experts fear a 'perfect storm'

    By Matt Dixon @ Politico.com, 04/21/2020 07:33 PM EDT

    TALLAHASSEE — Republican governors across the Southeast are teaming up to reopen the region’s economy, even as they lack the testing to know how rapidly the coronavirus is spreading.

    One health expert called the political decision a “perfect storm” for the virus to reassert itself.

    The newly formed coalition includes Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama and Mississippi, a part of the country that has underfunded health systems, as well as high rates of obesity, diabetes and other illnesses that amplify the deadliness of the coronavirus.

    And unlike their peers in New York, New Jersey and other Northeastern states that have been working cooperatively since last week to restart their economies, the six in the South have lagged on testing and social distancing measures.

    “If you put these states together, there is a perfect storm for a massive epidemic peak later on,” said Jill Roberts of the University of South Florida’s College of Public Health. “The Southeast region is not known for having the best health record. Diabetes and heart disease come to mind. I am very concerned about how our states will do it.”

    It’s not evident how the coalition will work. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis mentioned the move Tuesday on "Fox & Friends," but there was no formal announcement or much communication from other states involved.

    “We have had a meeting with all the Southeastern governors — Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, South Carolina, and Tennessee,” DeSantis said. “And we shared a lot of ideas. I think we will be the same page on some stuff.” [....]


    by artappraiser on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 8:35am

    We need a wall to keep them from leaving their sector.


    by moat on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 8:41am

    Just need to delay them 2 weeks - nature handles the rest.


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 11:19am

    PS - Ohio and Mississippi rivers do much of what you're asking (take Mitch & Elaine too, please)


    by PeraclesPlease on Fri, 04/24/2020 - 11:38am

     Arkansas'position as  one of the six states   not  enforcing   social distancing  explains why Lincoln  (Ark) has the  10th number of Covid cases : 1884 per 100,000 residents. Still a long way south  of   fellow non -enforcers : Louisa Iowa  in 6th place with 2,165 . 

    Maybe Marx was right,the States will  wither away.

    Before their residents choke to death.


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 12:03pm

    Not really - Tyson Food's plant in Lincoln AR is much more responsible than a generic "not distancing"


    by PeraclesPlease on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 12:17pm

    Of course.

    But once I heard that  6  state governments rejected social distancing  I assumed  the  unhappy  consequence 

    would  soon appear in the numbers. In this case in the dismal Covid rankings of Lincoln Ark and Louisa Iowa.

     

     


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 6:47pm

    One more boring time: we know  states (and people) who refused to cooperate in social distancing are now dying.   We provided a test case..

    We let Arkansas and Iowa to opt out of social distancing .Along 4 others.

    Yesterday the ten hot spots with ¨ the highest number of Covid  cases  happened to include

    #10 Lincoln Ark .

    Maybe a coincidence  .Wan t to move there?

    OBTW  number 6 was

    Louisa Iowa. 

    What would Obama do?

     


    by Flavius on Wed, 04/22/2020 - 9:34pm

    We know meatpacking plants, nursing homes, prisons, ships, etc are breeding grounds. Crowded bars by the beach - *not* walking on the beach largely 6 feet apart, *not* skiing individually wearing a mask. Over here everyone wears a mask. If careful with numbers in stores, you can keep R0 below 1. Just making clear which kind of social distance is most important. It's science.


    by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 12:19am

    I think the argument Flavius is making is more toward the mandate to restrict distance rather than arguing about causality.

    Nebraska is seeing an upsurge from the Meatpacking plants which clearly is accelerated by the working conditions there but is not isolated from the environment in the community. As the article says:

    In places like Lexington, population 10,000, it is difficult to decipher whether the virus is spreading inside the plant, where 2,800 people work, or if workers testing positive have contracted the virus out in the community, said Jeremy Eschliman, director of the Two Rivers Public Health Department.


    by moat on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 9:12am

    No argument for anything.

    I take it back. 

    I argued that their rejection of the social distancing  guide lines was causing the six members of the mid western rejection front  to be disproportionately affected by Covit 19. Wrong.

    Today 's NYT refutes that.

    The list of hot spots still features a mid western leader: Lincoln Ark tops the chart with , sadly, 3,739 Covit victims per 100,000 people.  But only two other counties made it to todayś list of top 33 Covit victims.

    . 

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    c


    by Flavius on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 10:22am

    Plus we need to understand causality to relax unneeded restraints and keep in place or tighten the needed ones. Of course being outside in a ballgame or stadium concert probably loses the benign trappings of being outside. They thought originally it would take roughly 10 minutes of exposure to become infected. While that's probably optimistic, passing by someone on a sidewalk probably won't do it in the vast number of cases. Otherwise I think we'd see much bigger numbers. Inside Petri dishes? A different story.


    by PeraclesPlease on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 3:03pm

    Your observation prompts me to think that the mitigation policies are not separable past a certain point.

    In NYC, there is a heightened awareness of the choke points of physical proximity. But the stay-at-home component also relates to the stay-in-your-neighborhood element.  While many less people are going to physical work sites, they still move around by varying degrees to shop for food and supplies and take care of family.

    The automobile as a vector is not something I am seeing come up into any study as yet. But how it is used in the course of daily life is very different in different places.

    EDITED to make less obscure.


    by moat on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 4:35pm

    this rant about the "open" protestors being wimps, that was censored by Facebook, and tweeted by Martina Navratilova because she agreed with it, is actually a great description of the difference between living in isolation in NYC vs. most of flyover.


    by artappraiser on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 4:43pm

    Thank you. My people.


    by moat on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 4:52pm

    I could be too cynical but looks to me what is going on with someone like De Santis in FL, he is always pandering first and foremost to business leaders who pay for political campaigns and willing to sacrifice the lives of a percentage of his elderly constituents to do it. And thinking enough of the rest of still living voters will eventually forget all about it. Furthermore someone thinking like that always has this backup: nobody forced you to go outside, it's a choice:

    72% of Florida voters don’t want social-distancing rules eased before May, new poll finds

    @ Florida Sun Sentinel April 22

    Half of Florida voters see the coronavirus crisis lasting months, a Quinnipiac University Poll finds. The survey shows 72% want social-distancing rules continued past April.
    Edit to add:

    The comparison that many are using lately, with the mayor of the town in the movie "Jaws" not wanting anyone to know about the shark problem, is probably particularly apt in this instance.


    by artappraiser on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 12:16am

    ¨If the facts are on your side, pound the facts¨

     The 6 foot rule decreases the spread of Covid 19.

    Generally accepted. but we  should increase that  by providing whatever data. is available .    Available  from before and after the imposition of the 6 foot separation rule.

    For the 6 states which refused to implement .And for the rest.

    .What does that data tell us about the Covid growth  for the 6 ?. And for rest of the country.?

    As I  have reported  here , of the 10 most rapidly growing Covid counties , 2 are from  the   6  recalcitrants.

    End of story. At least we know End is Near, As well as lamenting Trumpś  proposal to open the economy we

    should get into the public discourse the probable facts: that for 44 states the 6 month rules held Covit growth

    to a % of whatevever. And for the other 6 states the absence of it resulted in Covit growth of whatever

    the data shows.

     

     

     


    by Flavius on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 1:37am

    I've been extrapolating beyond the range of the data. Not alone but  I ´ll fly over that target one more time.

     Fact :two tiny rural counties are disproportionately  contributing  to  Covit19ś spread. As well as wanting to cuddle up with others out there where the mountains meet the smog , they're infecting them

    No rational government should allow that. AOBTW the meat processing industry is doing the same thing. . Good luck  to those attempting to address that

    My hop skip and a jump generalization  based on the  infectious behavior of Lincoln, Arkansas and  Louisa ,Iowa is that besides these two examples of irresponsible anarchy the balance of the six no-social-distancing states are behaving similarly.

    But that 's just a allegation .Who knows , maybe the rest are as pure as  the driven flakes at Alta. 

    I 'll see if I can obtain substantiation either way. Watch this space.

     

     

     


    by Flavius on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 8:49am

    We're gonna need a longer swab??

     

    Can a Negative COVID-19 Test Be Trusted? – Reason.com


    by jollyroger on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 1:26pm

    Gottlieb is highly respected on coronavirus news. And he's saying this is interesting,and the more wingnuttier of governors are gonna run with it:

    He was part of publishing this recently, has it pinned on top his page, John Hopkins/Bloomberg School of Health: Guidance for Governors on Reopening:


    by artappraiser on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 10:21am

    p.s. was promoting the idea on Squawkbox/CNBC this morning:


    by artappraiser on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 10:24am

    southern movie theatre chain and others don't wanna open early:


    by artappraiser on Thu, 04/23/2020 - 6:45pm