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    Jerry Brown vs Meg Whitman - Projected Outcome on Election Day

    By oldenGoldenDecoy on Mon, 10/25/2010 - 3:36am |

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    Here's a wee bit of projection of the outcome...

    What's an election without some projection? Plus, what with all the dire predictions and outlook across the nation in the national polls of the congressional races I thought I'd drop this in from my state that, as the saying goes, nobody wants to manage. But, hey! We do live vicariously on the fault line out here. So with that, onward into the unknown while attempting to predict the unpredictable.

    The following information is found at Public Policy Institute of California.org (pdf) and that came directly from the California Secretary of State's Elections data base. Note: Bracketed figures below are mine:

    At the close of registration for the June 2010 primary election, 17 million of the 23.5 million eligible adults in the state were registered to vote: 44.5% [7,565,000] as Democrats, 30.8% [5,236,000] as Republicans, 20.2% [3,434,000] as decline to state or independents, and 4.5% [765,000] as other parties. The number of registered voters in the state has grown by 1.3 million since June 2006. The number of registered Democrats has grown from 6.7 to 7.6 million, and the number of independents from 3 to 3.4 million, while the number of Republicans edged down from 5.4 to 5.2 million.


    Percentage of projected average of Likely Voters from past trends to go to the polls:

    Forty-eight percent 48%  [8,160,000 from current registered voters]



    Percentage of projected party ID Likely Voters from all available polling data:

    Democrat 43%
    Republican  36
    Independent/DTS 18
    Other 3


    Numbers of voters by party ID likely to vote from recent polling and past trends:

    Democrats 3,508,800
    Republicans 2,937,600
    Independents 1,468,800
    Others: 244,800


    Total Ballots to be cast by projected LVs:

    8,160,000 (48% of registered voters)


    Using Nate Silver of 538.com latest prediction on 10/23/2010 at the New York Times that is based on all available polling data and on 100,000 computer simulations with random variations within the local political environment. The following results can be speculated to be the outcome within a +|- 5% margin of error.

    • Brown projected at: 51.4% = 4,194,240
    • Whitman projected at: 46.1% =  3,761,760
    • Others projected at: 2.5% = 204,000


    At that, Whitman will have spent $43.33 per vote cast for her from her current figures of spending $163 million link

    Brown? $5.96. Yes. You read that right. He's spent $25.1 million ibid

    ~OGD~

    Please Note: Double check my numbers because I was far from a math major. Oh and, the above figures do not reflect added voter registration since the end of the California Primary.

    This entry was also posted at my WordPress blog in 2010 California Governor, California State Politics, Election Projections, Jerry Brown Meg Whitman and tagged , , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

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