Michael Maiello's picture

    Obama's Stimulus Wins

    Ultimately, I'm not as mad about the tax compromise as I thought I'd be because I think Obama won some pretty effective stimulus even though it preserves a tax structure that will continue to encourage wealth to accumulate at the top of the economy.

    Let's start with the "even though..."  Income inequality also increased under the Clinton tax rates, just more slowly.  While I agree with people who argue that we actually have to protect the demand side of the economy with real wealth distribution, those kinds of tax rates are not yet part of the discussion.  This was about the current rates, which encourage wealth accumulation at the top a lot and the previous rates, that encouraged it not as much but still encouraged it quite a bit.

    Next, middle class families really couldn't afford to pay more, especially since most of them have gone the last 3 years without a raise.  Although I believe that politically Obama should have let the tax cuts expire and then spent the next year proposing middle class cut after middle class cut (includign steeper cuts than what Bush offered) we have to face that the Republicans would stand in the way of that for a long time, even if they were to eventually cave.  That means, realistically, that the standard of living for many families would decline.  That's unacceptable to me.

    The extentions of unemployment benefits was vitally important.  On the weekend chat shows, John Kerry said that for every $1 in benefits paid the economy gets $1.60 in output.  That's some seriously multiplier effect right where we need it.  Also, it keeps people from utter destitution even though I believe our unemployment benefits are an absolute joke in terms of what they provide.

    If a boost to the Earned Income Tax Credit survives I think you'll see some real demand side stimulus, provided it's big enough.

    The cut in the employee side of the payroll tax will mean way more to most workers than the expiring Make Work Pay Tax Credit ever did.  Let's face it -- the Make Work Pay tax Credit, which was capped at a measly $400 a year, sucked.  It is one of the reasons why Obama was able to say that 95% of families got a tax cut, but its paltry sum is why those 95% of taxpayers didn't notice it.  If you maxed out the $400 and you get paid twice a month you saw your paycheck rise by $15.38.  I've paid more to see movies.

    That said, the payroll tax cut is good if and only if the government transfers general revenue into the Social Security system so that its is revenue neutral for Social Security, not for the budget as a hole.  If this is a trick to move up Social Security's crisis date, then this deal goes down in infamy.  How much Simpson and Bowles shows up in Obama's budget might provide a clue.

    There's a lot that can go wrong here.  But Obama did get stimulus without a new stimulus bill.  That's positive.

    Comments

    Oh, one bad thing... the tax deal doesn't extend Build America Bonds.  Does this spell doom for the most heavily indebted states?


    Smells a little like getting out while the getting's good?  Imagine you saw this from the Times on Sunday, but just in case:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2010/12/05/us/politics/05states.html

     


    Nancy Altman weighs in on the payroll holiday being a threat to Social Security idea:

    "And the Making Work Pay Tax Credit poses no threat to Social Security. The innocent-sounding payroll tax holiday, on the other hand, will lead inexorably to killing Social Security. Let me explain:"     And she does here.


    Makes one wonder what Obama is really up to.


    WELL PUT!!!


    Take off the rose colored glasses. I think you miss the fact that this deal is a total cave to the GOP, and a huge strike-out by Obama to get a winning message across and show he stands for something. That being-the rich, on Wall Street and elsewhere, do not deserve a continuation of tax breaks, and he is not going along with the GOP who are trying to extort that concession on the backs of the unemployed.

    Also, Congress in recent decades has never NOT approved extended unemployment benefits when the unemployment rate is over 8%-so Obama giving away the farm to the GOP on that point is zilch, as I said he could have used the GOP heartlessness on this to pummel them into passing it with no concessions on his part.

    In fact Obama obligingly covers the ass of the GOP who escape the wrath of the unemployed who would have had their benefits cut, and the wrath of the deficit hawks in the TParty-by saying they got tax cuts in return for it all.

    The transfer of general revenue to Social Security could easily be cut thereby diminishing the solvency of Social Security in one fell swoop.  Also, once cut, any tax, like the payroll tax, is rarely reinstated at its previous level, so, yes, the cut in the payroll tax rate is another GOP scheme to 'starve the beast' called Social Security.

    Krugman says that any job creation, which will not be 'millions' like Obama claimed, created by the Bill will be mostly in 2011, and will fade towards the election 2012, and could be almost entirely checkmated by GOP cuts to the federal budget.

    On the estate tax cut, which I blogged about, Obama caved and went with the GOP Kyl/McConnell plan which is 35% of estates over $5 million , the Reid plan was 45% for estates over $3.5 million.

    The Obama/GOP plan taxes only 0.14% of estates, the Reid plan would have taxed a whopping 0.25%-so it seems Obama couldn't even hold the line on a tax break for 0.11% of dead rich folks.


    My only hope is someone in the Democrat caucus has the balls to filibuster the damn thing until the GOPer's agree to extend unemployment insurance and unlimited stimulus funding for public works as well as states and municipalities for the same two years as their coveted tax breaks for the wealthy. 

    Aside from that, Obama's action makes me wonder if we would have been better off with McCain and Palin in the White House...at least we would be prepared for the shaft being shoved up our a$$es.


    I, for one, would rather be disappointed by Obama than get what I expected from McCain. I knew that he would disappoint me when I voted for him, whereas it would've been very hard for McCain to disappoint me.


    But with McCain you knew what you were getting even if it was ddistasteful. Obama on the other hand was an unknown and still is today. I prefer something more tangible than a definite maybe.


    I'd rather be disappointed by getting beets when I expected cherries than sign up for a punch to the nuts that I knew would be delivered as promised.


    but you're gettin beeten either way


    You win this round!


    I guess the question I'd put to some of you is this... is not keeping the current tax rates for the rich so important that you'd give them up for everyone else?  I'm now leaning towards believing that people aorund the median income can't afford the old tax rates since their wages have been stagnant for so long.  Ultimately we have to decouple the issue of working class and upper class tax rates.


    I don't know enough to have a truly informed opinion, but I will nonetheless share some of my uninformed opinions.

    1. Reducing the debt is important.
    2. I can afford to pay more taxes, and I think I'm fairly well ensconced in the middle class (not rich nor poor). I also (currently) don't have any children, and my wife and I are naturally frugal.
    3. This might not be the best time to reduce the debt, as losing the tax cuts for the working class could hurt the economy. (This is purely speculative on my part.)

    As you can see, I'm somewhat ambivalent on the whole question, but I appreciate your piece as one more in the puzzle. Anyone who's known you for a while (I used to post under a different name) knows that your support for Obama is not blind nor universal.


    But those same wealthy types the GOPer's are so gung-ho for kept the profits they made during the Bu$h years that...by GOPer's own words...were suppose to trickle down to the lower and middle classes. So if the old pre-Bu$h tax rates are re-applied and the middle and lower classes suffer, then the government needs to enforce fair wage laws to force the wealthy to either pay fair and livable wages or pick up the tax tab themselves. Either way the government gets their pound of flesh...either by taxing employees or their masters.


    I want fair wage laws too, Beetlejuice.  But let's face it, Obama probably doesn't even believe in that.


    He's got that forset/tree vision problem.

    However, I really do believe the Democrat should be beating the hell out of GOPer's over their mantra of trickle down economics since all the profits earned since 2000 has been going into the pockets of the wealthy and none of it has filtered down to the majority of the middle and lower classes as they always claim it would. their theory is a fraud and needs to be called out. 

    Unfortunately, I'm getting the impression Democrats are more worried about their next election than they are about creating legislation the public expects.


    I suspect that a lot of them actually believe in trickle down, they just don't use the term.  They say things like "pro growth policies" but they really mean low corporate and investment and high end individual tax rates.


    The Democrats are fools, period.  This issue should have been on the docket BEFORE the election, not when there is a lame duck Congress.  If Harry Reid was thinking ahead, he could have made a lot of hay with this issue, and moblized the unemployed, who had the time, to canvas for the Dems.  What WERE the figures for the unemployed voters?  How many of them stayed home and let the GOP take the House? 

     

    And dow did the Dems drag the healthcare bill out for so long that a 70% favorable public deteriorated to near even by the time there was actually a vote?  And why did the Left allow the Tea Party to suck all the air out of the room so the only thing we ever heard on the news was how the Tea Party yelled and screamed at the town halls?

     


    I think this is about an end run on the Tea Party which--thrives on chaos and uncertainty. The deal cuts their leverage. The tax cuts are for two years, he got more stimulus than I thought he would, and I'm glad he did this now.


    Okay, Dean Baker is on Team Destor.

    "...if the question is whether the economy will do better with the tax cuts or a smaller deficit in 2011 and 2012, the answer is that we will unambiguously do better with the tax cuts to the rich."

    And,

    "...progressives should not be happy about giving more money to the richest people in the country, but it is not the end of the world either."

    Heck, Dean actually seems to think it's less dangerous than I do.


    None of which addresses the simple fact that the tax cuts for the wealthy will never be allowed to sunset.  Nor does it address the Democratic base's perception of a massive sellout, which might be changed if Obama Dems sell it well, and make workers aware that their paycehecks are larger, which polls indicate they never did with either Bush's or Obama's payroll tax holidays.

    Plus, IMO, unemployment benefit extensions was a fight Dems should have wanted. 

    And then ther'e this coming up.  How much will this plan contribute to it?

     


    I give you credit for defending it on substantive grounds instead of hiding behind content-free rationales like "well, what did ya expect, he ran as a centrist?" or "he had no alternatives with the weak hand he has", etc. 


    And after a deficit committee that wasn't supposed to address Social Security focused almost entirely on Social Security, Obama decides to gut 2% from SS income (i.e. 1/7th of its input) as a "holiday".

    Which will give more ammo to the SS haters next go around.

    And what does it do for that deficit? Why extending the Bush tax cuts, expanding the estate holiday, adding the SS holiday - we're printing free money now.

    Who is this moron-in-chief?

    And everyone's going to proclaim "IT'S A STIMULUS!!!" Well gee, if those are the rules, GIVE IT ALL TO ME!!! I'll be stimulated, and I promise to trickle a little down to you.

    Really, someone somewhere should have studied the costs & long-term effects, including letting the freaks in the door to tear up all our social agreements.


    Hey, Didjereedoo; you're on the wrong diary, you know.  Damn; and I had put a tenner down on the bet....rats!  (Shhhh....maybe the Dreamer won't notice...) Cool


    I am the all and everything. I am everywhere, omnipresent, omniscient, and munificent.

    Oops, gotta get home, my sitcom's on.


    Ya lousy sod...  ;o)


    Destor,

    Is there anything in the rotten compromise Obama negotiated that makes it worth destabilizing Social Security because that is precisely what is going to happen.  Obama couldn't faciliate the destruction of Social Security via his disgusting catfood commission because the crisis they referred to didn't exist and Social Security does not add anything to the deficit to begin with.  But by failing to pay into the system, they will begin the process of creating the very crisis that Democrats have prevented from happening now for decades.  I suggest that everyone take a long look at what Obama's disgraceful capitulation is really going to do.  The small "concessions" Obama managed to get from the grotesquely corrupt Republicans are nothing more than things that ought to be approved routinely.  What our faux Democratic President wants to give to the other side is a tidal wave of largesse for the rich.


    The worst thing for Social Security is high unemployment.  The unemployed pay nothing into the system.  Though this does create the risk that because the general fund will have to temporarily shore up Social Security inflows it will weaken the politics of the institution, it also addresses a fundamental Social Security problem -- that the tax used to fund it is horribly regressive.  At the very least you know the tax cut is going to the people who need it most right now.  Had the cut been on the employer side, I'd be apopleptic.


    You should be apoplectic anyway.

    Don't you see what they're doing?  Obama has agreed to a deal not unlike the Bush tax cuts so that when it comes time to reinstate the payroll taxes the Republicans will howel to high heaven that Democrats are "raising your taxes!" and this will provide the excuse for weakling Democrats led by the weakest and most cowardly of all the Democrats in Washington not to restore the payroll taxes which will continue to bleed the social security system white.  The Democrats will never have the balls to reinstate those taxes.  Never.  And they will also never use general revenues to restore or make the social security system whole.  It's a three card monty scheme Destor and it's right in front of you: they are lying about this just like they lied about letting the tax cuts for the rich expire which they will never, ever do under Obama's rich man's Democratic Party leadership.  Do you really think that in Obama's re-election year he's going to have more courage than he has now?  Not a chance in hell.

    This is Obama's means of attacking and destroying Social Security as his masters on Wall Street want done.  They are interested (and have been for years) in converting to the system Bush proposed where they will get their criminal hands on the trillions paid into the fund for investment.  That means they'll be allowed to charge fees for doing so.  It also provides a nearly endless supply of gambling money for them because, as you may recall, they blew their stake back in 08 and need more money than ever to remain solvent while continuing to roll the dice.  Obama's longstanding rhetoric demonstrates his Republican viewpoint about Social Security.  The catfood commission didn't work so he figures this little manuever will.  It must be rejected out of hand.  It is a horrible idea and does very little to stimulate the economy just as Obama's foolish concessions of tax cuts in the 2009 stimulus bill was far less effective than targeted investment by the government would have been.

    After all his double crosses, after all the lies and deceptions how can yout trust anything this lying pol proposes when it so obviously is against the interests of the common people and of the nation?


    My spidey sense tells me that a one year tax holiday is quite different than cuts that sunset 9 years from now.  The American public likes social security and they know it has to be paid for.  I think taxpayers will accept this as an extraordinary event and that they won't expect an extended holiday.


    Bill is an "Obamanation" Robert Reich, he is not on 'Team Destor': Destor, Senators Kyl, McConnell and the GOP caucus.

    It's not rocket science to know if the GOP agrees so easily, and you hear no howls of 'chicken crap' like when Pelosi passed the middle class tax cut the GOP all voted against, you know the GOP got everything they wanted, and they always want 110%. Of course they were going to pass the unemployment extension anyway as I said above, threats by the GOP on this were 'blowing smoke' and could not be taken seriously.

    A article made the point that instead of lowering the payroll tax on Soc. Security which may wind up being permanent like most tax cuts, thereby pushing Soc. Security into insolvency faster, sending a check for the measly annual amount to workers would give them the same money AND when such a check arrives IT IS MORE LIKELY TO BE SPENT! The decrease in the payroll tax is like all other GOP maneuvers on taxes, it is not meant to EVER return to its previous level.


    Which all means that we need to find some quality liberal candidates to run first in the primaries for those seats where the current Dem is no better than the GOP and then in the general elections in 2012.  Easy to say, difficult to pull off.  But as long as people keep sending the GOP (and conservative Dems) to DC, what you say is basically true.

    What is will be interesting to watch, however, over the next year, as the Repubs try to come up with some ideas about what to do next since they got the tax cuts they wanted.  And the tax cuts are pretty much it for their ideas for the economy.


    "and the tax cuts are pretty much it for their ideas for the economy."

    Ye of little imagination. They have plenty of ideas.

    • Put Reagan's face on a dollar bill - STIMULATION!
    • Put Reagan's face on ... the Moon - STIMULATION!
    • Drill for oil on the Mall - energy independence!
    • Replace dollar by gold - um... GOOOOLD!

    GOP Goals 2010-2012:

    * kill health care reform

    * kill regulation of Wall Street

    * weaken regulation of everything else but stuff the GOP hates like NPR...

    * Finish that Damn Wall

    * Win the GWOT and stop the victory mosques

    * Ban abortion, or at least make it harder to get one by poor women

    * Protect stem cells and cut aid to children's health care and education,

    * Cut 'Nanny state' aid to the all lazy poor

    * Ensure the rights for almost anyone to own any gun and take it anywhere

    * Constitutional amendment to ban citizenship for anchor babies

    * spend $100 billion to build new nukes and then kill START

    * Constitutional amendment to 'protect the sacred institution of marriage'

    * investigate and consider the impeachment of Barack Hussein Obama

    * send a few billion more each year of advanced weapons to Israel so they aren't pushed into the sea

    * possible: creation museum on The Mall in DC

    * national law to prevent Sharia law being imposed by terrorist loving liberals and Democrats

    * Big One - cut or privatize Social Security (may need to compromise with Obama on this-like holding the increase in the National debt hostage so he caves on his basic principles)


    Like I said, it will interesting.  Starting off with the Big One, while they like to do it I don't see how they're going to be any more successful than they were when they control Congress and the WH (yeah I know some of you think they still control the WH). 

    The following would items would seem to me to fall under the "difficult to convince the people it will create jobs and strengthen the economy" category:

    • national law to prevent Sharia law being imposed by terrorist loving liberals and Democrats
    • possible: creation museum on The Mall in DC
    • Constitutional amendment to 'protect the sacred institution of marriage'
    • Constitutional amendment to ban citizenship for anchor babies
    • Ensure the rights for almost anyone to own any gun and take it anywhere
    • Ban abortion, or at least make it harder to get one by poor women
    • Protect stem cells and cut aid to children's health care and education

    Killing health care reform will force them to attack popular facets of the plan.

    It is one thing to obstruct regulation.  It is another thing to actually write a bill and pass it which gives Wall Street more freedom to rip off people.  That's when you get in their own writing what they want to do.  Again interesting how they pull that off.   The regulation thing is the closest they will have to be able to claim they are dealing with the economy

    Finishing the damn wall approach will at least provide the Dems to help secure some solid support in the Hispanic community and among those who want comprehensive immigration reform.  Again, it hasn't always gone well for the GOP when they have taken this one head on as opposed to just opposing what others are trying to do.

    Afghanistan and Iraq have really weakened the People enthusiasm for all thing global policeman, so winning the GWOT and stop the victory mosques might get the base fired up but is more likely to alienate the independents and moderates.

    Sending a few billion more each year of advanced weapons to Israel so they aren't pushed into the  sea has always seemed one of the few bipartisan efforts in DC, so I don't see that changing anytime soon, regardless of which Party is in control. 

    Cut 'Nanny state' aid to the all lazy poor is the most interesting since this latest economy has made many of those who would have once been on their side now part of the "lazy poor" or has a family member or friend who is now one of them.  They know how difficult it is to "just go out and get a job," especially one that provides a wage that one can live on.

    So yes it will be interesting.  Now if Americans think its great that the GOP try to amend the constitution to save us from the homosexual agenda rather than doing something constructive, and votes them back into power and then some in 2012, well...god help us all. 


    On the big one, (i) they can raid the SS trust fund - like this tax deal seems to involve, (ii) their economic sabotage is going to bring down growth projections significantly - more so than most think, and that as well as the trust fund raiding both serve to bring forward the date of when SS runs out of money. Hence the increasing media urgency. (iii) They will likely trigger a budget crisis which will create a bond market crisis, which can be used to make 'emergency' cuts to SS. After all, there are already a number of Dems on board for SS 'reform', as the Deficit commission exercise has shown.

    On obstructing financial regulation, they have a lot of control over the budgets of regulatory agencies. Which was something that needed urgent reform in itself, but failed to pass. And they can exercise that influence out of the public's eye.

    On repealing Health care, they seem to be taking the legal route, leading to the Supreme Court, where they've probably got a 50-50 chance given the current crew there.


    If they're taking the legal route on Health Care, then this makes the legislators basically irrelevant on this front.

    I have no doubt they can they can do some serious damage out of the public eye (which is, given the general disengagemnet of the public with the details of the goings on in the beltway, quite a large area).  And where there are shenigans, these should be highlighted.  But my point is that the public voted these jokers into power in order to fix things.  They need to offer something tangible to the public that they can point to and say "this is what I am doing to alleviate your economic suffering and economic suffering of your community."  Doing something out of the public eye may help them meet their economic objectives, but it won't satisfy the public.  Nothing will help the Dems more than to be able to provide evidence in 2012 that the Republican Party lacks any ideas.

    Which brings us to the Big One.  SS is still something that needs to be treated with kid gloves. The goal should be to develop a message that explains the way forward for SS from a liberal perspective.  A message that offers a marketable solution.   They already have framed the issue as a crisis that needs to be dealt with.    There were some reforms in the Commission's report that made sense (like making it easier to get hardship exceptions).  It is a battle for the long haul.  Even the proposed holiday if passed won't be the end of SS.  It will provide an opportuntity to educate the public why it should be considered "raiding."

    Your point that "their economic sabotage is going to bring down growth projections significantly...which will serve to bring forward the date of when SS runs out of money" seems to imply that you feel that are purposively tanking the economy in order to undermine SS.  But then again I would say that this doesn't make for good marketing materials if growth projections are down and SS is worse off than before they were given some more power by the voters.  How they try to spin it will be interesting.


    On the regulatory agencies, they'll be basically able to shut them down, and then they will blame the dysfunctional markets on the Obama administration. They are, after all, his agencies. And they will investigate them, to good effect - showing through all the malfeasance during '09 that Obama is in the pocket of big finance. Sure, hypocrisy. But when has that hurt them?

    As for SocSec, sure, it is important to message properly. I just don't see the Obama administration as being on board with that program. I expect he'll strike a deal gutting SocSec as we know it - i.e. turn it into a redistributive welfare program, as the GOP wants to. For instance, the hardship exemptions are part of that larger goal. Some dems seem to be fine with that, turning it into a redistributive program. I have misgivings. For one thing, much like HCR, it is turning into a redistribution from the middle class to the lower class, while the rich go scott free. So it is highly regressive redistribution in a larger sense...


    Trope - good points but don't make the mistake of thinking the Republicans give a crap about the economy below the 98th percentile of wealth.

    The GOP always assumes the serfs economy will take care of itself. Remember, John McCain only gets involved when Wall Street is in trouble.

    They also love the culture war legislation, most of which never passes, or gets struck down in court, yet they love this stuff cause its cheap-costs nothing-no appropriations, and it fires up the 'values' base.


    Good point about the serfs economy taking care of itself.  Just this weekend I discovered that Ayn Rand herself relied upon Social Security and Medicare.  Didn't make much news, of course.

     


    HAHAHAHA - of course its OK for the likes of Ayn Rand to get gov't benefits while pontificating about liberty and freedom and no gov't taxes, but they say you don't deserve the same benefits. great link.


    Geez. Hardly worth it. But yeah ... that should be interesting. Especially because most of the people are now looking at the GOP winning this fight primarily as winning an extension for the rich. I don't see much upside from their position with the general electorate (but it *should* get them tons and tons of corporate cash).

    But the same is true from Obama's position. He has always made the issue about taxes for the rich. From a messaging standpoint the Dems never tied the shit together as Destor does in this post. They never properly framed in advance the stuff they "got" from of the deal as something that was at stake in the conflict. It wouldn't have changed my personal opinion, but I can't help wondering if the general propaganda consumer may be more inclined to see this as a win for Obama if he hadn't essentially defined this outcome as losing not two months ago.

    Once again. While they'll likely dislike the policy in general and know the crap-parts came from the GOP (just like Robamneycare), America is going to see this as the Republicans kicking the Democrats' asses and the Democrats going along with something terrible they disagree with because they are wusses. Ultimately the Democrats will likely get more of the blowback ... and most of the other stuff is going to go essentially unnoticed because of how they decided to play the politics. And the GOP gets to call it "Extending the Bush middle class tax cuts". Pretty crappy optics for the Dems.

    Dammit. If they want to stick us with a two party system, there should be some requirement that it's not a "lame" and "lamer" competition. Just MHO.

     


    Obama is to legislative strategery what Paris Hilton is to singing, what Michael Jordan is to baseball, what David Hasselhoff is to running in slo-mo on the beach. I.e. he's almost INTRIGUINGLY bad.

    Yeah, sure, maybe nothing better could be had at this point, but that doesn't mean it's something to cheer about. I mean, when Napoleon stood before the smoldering ruins of Moscow in mid-winter and told his troops

    "hmm, I have an idea, let's retreat",

    I don't think they began applauding and screaming

    "WHAT A GENIUS!"

    Their thoughts more likely turned to the question

    "Whose bright idea was it to come HERE?!"

    Obama had two years with a nice fat majority to pass some more adequate tax structure, through reconciliation if need be, and he chooses to leave it until he's HERE to go with ... THIS?!

    Sweet baby Jesus, this is just pathetic.

     


    Well, it's clear that since he signaled through Axelrod the Poorly-Spoken on the Sunday shows a month ago that Obama was willing to extend the cuts for the wealthy, he couldn't get anything else.  Dude either likes negotiating with his own mind, or the deal was done back then.  Damn; I just hate to say Kabuki; can we coin some new term?  Please?


    Charade?


    Restless Mouth Syndrome.


    Axelrod looks like a hood who has just hijacked a load of whiskey.


    LOL!  You all got me laughing now!  I thought of 'Production Number' which is both theatre AND a play on words. 

    Man; we need more spot on music for all of this!  Where are the troubadors for the people?  I even like this playful one:  (I posted it, but it never made it to the middle aisle...) 


    From where I sit it's not a question of encouraging/discouraging wealth accumulation at the top at all. I agree that's an issue that needs to be addressed, but taxation comes after wealth is accumulated. Trying to address the problem at that point is certainly not going to change the situation all that much. The real money is being diverted at a different choke-point in our economy;  taxation is just the point where the mega-players get to see how much of their ill-gotten lucre they get to keep.

    To me this is 100% a question of who pays for the costs of running our country and servicing our debt - made orders of magnitude greater based on the shenanigans of the ultra-wealthy who are fighting to keep their tax cuts. Pennies on the dollar. That's what we get out of this deal. American citizens/workers can't survive - let alone thrive - if every deal we make is a pittance for a pound.

    You are looking at the money wrong ... or more to the point you are looking at revenue from an individualistic standpoint instead of aggregate. The current system taxes every penny of our GDP that comes through the hands of the middle class. In entrepreneurial terms, that's money in the economy being "put to work" ... it comes in, is reinvested in the system and then the system produces more.

    What happens when we shift the money to the top 1% is that more and more of the money is not "working" ... they don't pay taxes on any of it. So, not only are we losing out because the real benefits from our labors are all being hoarded by a small few who don't produce shit, but the money they are taking out of our mouths isn't even being proportionally reinvested to maintain society anymore. $100,000 shifting from the middle class to the rich not only means the middle class is poorer, it means that there are $100,000 less dollars worth of tax money being spent on schools, roads, etc.

    If we don't fix that, trying to protect the living standards of middle-class Americans is like trying to sandbag around a house in the 9th Ward during Katrina. If we don't start working on the levees, it isn't going to matter. IMO, we don't have an extra two years to fuck around. The money is shifting from us to them at an INSANE pace right now - tax policy sure as hell isn't what's causing the tsunami of our money rolling into their bank accounts. We damn well better at least collect some taxes on all this shit over the next two years as they rob us blind and profit from foreclosing on every home in America.

    Either we start fixing this crap or we don't. This deal falls firmly on the side of "don't" ... the bribes they are offering look kind of like glass beads being offered in exchange for Manhattan to me.

     


    Interesting. That sounds like the pretty standard Marxist underconsumption theory of economic crisis.

    The crisis occurs when the wages of the laboring class rise too slowly, i.e. when they do not keep pace with rising productivity, leaving the gains of the excess production in the hands of the capitalist class. The slow pace of wage growth removes the capitalists’ incentive to invest in more, or better, productive capacity since the slow pace of wage growth entails an equally slow expansion of the market for consumer goods.

    Hence the situation we've got now - the rich sitting on 10 trillion in cash on the sidelines, not being put to work.

    I think Krugman's last shot at explaining the financial crisis is just Marx's theory without mentioning Marx.

    http://www.princeton.edu/~pkrugman/debt_deleveraging_ge_pk.pdf


    Oh, great. Now I'm a commie ... cause that seems basically accurate when looking at the economic inequality situation. But my point was that we can't really address that issue with taxation, so looking at this issue in terms of such inequalities is the wrong formula.

    I strongly feel society would be foolish to continue with the policy of not collecting revenue from what our economy is *currently* producing - the gains from excess production flowing to the capitalist class - by continuing to let those leveraging the economy to their own benefit avoid paying taxes. This is especially true for a middle class reliant on the infrastructures of society who are also facing a dwindling set of resources with which to maintain the institutions we need to have a first rate society.

    The economy has shifted in such a way that someone else is making our money ... they need to pay the taxes we loyal America-loving people who actually pay our taxes would have provided had we earned the money. Or those taxes just aren't going to get paid. The flip side to consuming 90% of the income is that you have to carry 90% of society's tab - and STILL only get 1 vote on what we all decide to put on that tab. If the economy is roughly at a a level that has been able to build and maintain the institutions of society we enjoy today, the only reason to talk to me about austerity is if those earning the bulk of money are no longer loyal Americans and don't want to see the same percentage of the economy invested in society as we have historically invested. The recession is OVER bay-bee ... time for those for whom this is reality to kick the fuck down.

    In the case of this deal, the $600 annually out of the average Joe's pocket isn't even enough to offset the very real loss of opportunity for their children who no longer have music class or elective soccer offered at High School (no excellence scholarships for THOSE kids, eh? Good thing ma and pa kept an extra $2400 across those 4 years to put all the 'chillins through college without such opportunities!).

    IMO, the mid-term impact of this boils down to filling our children's lunch pails with sand in exchange for a nice shiny nickle and another 6 months before they shut down the direct-debit breadlines and dump us into physical ones. This is OUR fucking house. There are 10% of them and 90% of us. Hell with living like beggars. Take my fucking $600. Getting a matching check for $8,500,000+ from a billionaire seems like a pretty sound investment in America from where I sit. I'm so sick of Democrats fucking everyone over while arguing they are just thinking about some "little guy" or whatever who isn't actually them ... and they don't actually know ... I could just barf. Third least-endearing thing about Democrats IMO.

     


    Oh, yeah. And I'd add that based on current economic dynamics the NEXT two years are probably most important to capture revenue on from these folks - as the Fed helps them pull down all this "cash" that isn't actually real from their oversold mortgages.

    Maybe we should offer them a two year tax-cut that STARTS in three years?


    "the only reason to talk to me about austerity is if those earning the bulk of money are no longer loyal Americans and don't want to see the same percentage of the economy invested in society as we have historically invested."

    - This bit is the crux of the issue for me. They aren't interested in investing in the economy.

    The reason the Obama administration did their whole 'mission accomplished' routine this summer, when they welcomed us to the recovery, is that for the top 10% it is, but for the rest not so much. Things are still getting worse for most people - foreclosures RISING, unemployment RISING, wages FALLING. But those figures don't show up in the aggregate because the top 10% account for half of all consumption, and as long as they are happy again, aggregate demand rises. The other 90% can go fuck themselves for all the establishment cares.

    The Dem senators and representatives know they are supposed to say something about helping this 'little guy' somewhere because their pollster tells them to. But they mostly have no idea what they are talking about. They're all millionaires, and spend their time fundraising amongst other millionaires. And so they don't believe what they say. Accordingly they carry less conviction than lunatic republicans who, whatever their moral faults or cognitive deficiencies, actually BELIEVE the crap they spout. It's a distinct advantage. 

    ONE way to bring their money back into the economy, put it to work, is through taxes. Another is through inflation. If the inflation rate rises, even, marginally, they will no longer be able to just sit on cash.  They will have to invest in assets, i.e. productive capital goods. That is why I keep going nuts when people worry about inflation. It functions basically as a tax on the rich. That is why, when you look at the high inflation sixties and seventies, you see median incomes rise and inequality fall. Of course, that drove the rich nuts, and gave us the Reagan revolution.

    Anyway, the inequality situation was about to resolve itself in 2008. the rising inequality over the last 30 years was driven by the rise in financial sector pay. (That fed over into other corporate wage levels, as pay-check envy set in. Then that fed over into the professional classes - raising lawyer and doctors fees.) And that rise was caused by their fictitious profits. Profits inflated by the presumption of a government guarantee on their liabilities AND their assets. The second proved to be a mistaken presumption, but then the government came in and covered their borrowing. ALL of it. If the government hadn't done that, all those high wages - and bonuses - would have just disappeared. The shadow banking sector would have just gone *poof*. With no cost to the rest of society. Apart from some lost illusions. 

    Of course the powers that be couldn't let that happen, so now the rest of society is getting milked for all its worth in order to keep the bankers in the style to which they've become accustomed. And, presto, inequality is back on the rise. And we can't, oh no, we can't tax those highly productive people on Wall Street, because look at all the value-added they're creating. Which they'd surely stop doing if we taxed em.

    It's a whole new level of Orwellian thinking that just makes my head spin.

    ... now I've forgotten why I'm blathering on about all this. Anyway, hope there's something useful in there somewhere.


    Yup. Tax the rich. Tax their income, tax their wealth, tax the ones in finance just for being in the crookedest and most economically destructive industry in history.

    Seriously. 

    And then fracking Obama makes some asinine speech attacking the Democratic LEFT - AGAIN - AND WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME HE ATTACKED REPUBLICANS? - for being "sanctimonious," while this asshole misplays every hand, coming out with CRUMBS to help tide things over.

    Where's my shoe? I wanna throw a shoe at that bastard! Here Barack, you like Doc Martens? they're cherry red. Look good on TV. 

    "Ok," says BO. "We'll give you your tax cuts. But you hafta let us raid Social Security to pay for unemployment. What's that? You want cut in the estate tax too? Well, ok. Small steps. Long game. Help the people."

    "Sanctimonious?" Get  a mirror Obama, and you'll see sanctimonious.

    Like I said the other day, since he's not doing the job, and his fans like to argue there's nothing he CAN do, he should get off the public teat, quit his job, and turn the savings back over to help reduce the deficit. 

    GET A JOB, PUNK.


    Big Uh-oh alert:  (via David Dayan at FDL)

    "President Obama is holding a press conference in moments, amid signs that his deal with Republicans on the Bush tax cuts is falling apart. Joe Biden visited the Hill to try and save the policy, but Democrats and allies from across the political spectrum are opposed. Mary Landrieu, of all people, called the deal “almost morally corrupt” and termed it “the Obama-McConnell plan.” The Congressional Progressive Caucus want a “no strings attached” policy with UI and the tax cuts on the first $250,000 of income extended. The AFL-CIO just released a strongly worded denunciation opposing the policy. This is from President Richard Trumka:

    The tax cut deal rewards Republican obstructionism by giving the wealthy the tax breaks they demanded. It throws away precious resources needed for investments in jobs and our economy on upper income tax cuts that will do very little to propel economic growth—setting up excuses for the deficit hypocrites to argue for even more cuts to programs serving working families. It lards the tax cuts for the top 2 percent with an indefensible cut in the estate tax – giving yet another bonus to the super-rich. Taken together, this package locks in the growing income inequality that has plagued our country for at least another two years – and quite possibly much longer.

    It is unconscionable that the price of support for struggling middle class families and workers who have been unable to find jobs for months and months and months is yet more giveaways for our country’s wealthiest families. Millions of jobless workers have lived in fear for months while Senate Republicans had the gall to use their hardships as political leverage for the benefit of the rich.

    The gains for the middle class and jobless workers in the deal come at too high a price.

    Democrats are simply unwilling to give up at the moment on letting the high-end tax cuts expire, regardless of the modest gains that could come from the other elements of the deal. It is in this environment that Obama will speak in a few minutes."

     

     I hope we directly from the unions soon about the Crap KORUS Free Trade Agreement, too.   (note: not Fair Trade, cuz it sucks.)  Word has it there have been shenanigans pressuring them to keep silent.


    Don't they understand that tax cuts to the rich actually increase tax revenue and thus reduce the deficit?

    But seriously, the next time you hear a conservative spout such nonsense, I'm thinking an appropriate response is: Did you know that there are three times as many* studies showing that increasing taxes on the rich actually cause them to increase their productivity (which requires hiring more employees) so that they can still afford their mega-yachts than there are studies showing that decreasing taxes on the rich cause them to reduce their productivity?

    *Technically true, as 3 times zero is zero.


    For what it's worth, and I mean that sincerely, might be worth nothing to ya: Deutsche Bank is revising its 2011 GDP estimates upward to reflect potential impact from the Social Security payroll tax holiday.


    I thought you were right in your opening post and the only thing in the subsequent exchange that gives me some pause is the argumemt that reducing corporate withholding is an ominous marker for the coming,unnecessary, social security debate.

    But on ss I think Henry Aaron in the Sunday Times was exactly right. We have two issues with which we have to deal: the deficit and social security. They're working on completely different calendars and clumping them awkwardly together is unnatural and counter productive.

    Meanwhile the rich will spend a little more next year and as a result unemployment will be a little lower. What's not to like?

     


    If they are considering "production" from the financial sector as a part of GDP, it likely means very little to any real human who isn't already OK.

     


    Why am I experiencing déjà vu of a sudden? Every time I read something about the current crisis in Congress I keep getting flashbacks to the Carter Administration. Is my ID trying to tell me history is repeating itself, but in black face?


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