The Bishop and the Butterfly: Murder, Politics, and the End of the Jazz Age

    What Gallup should report tomorrow

    By Flavius on Thu, 10/25/2012 - 10:54pm |

    Further to my two days' old post  " Obama's quick Gallup recovery".....after being mired at 45% in Gallup's tracking  poll of  likely voters Obama's % starting rising this week

    Poll published

    Tuesday.              46%

    Wednesday          47

    Thursday              47

    According to Flavius' favorite mathematician  (who is not a millon miles from where F is typing this) what those numbers really  mean is that for the last 3 days 49% of those polled preferred  Obama. But when those daily results were combined with the 45% share he got last week they averaged down to what's shown above.

    If he remains at this same  level today Gallup's 1pm announcement tomorrow will be  either another 47% or possibly 48%.(If you want to see the calculation I could post it-but believe me you don't want to).

    If you're consistently chosen by 49% of a sample sooner or later Gallup will  report....49% (duh!)

     

    Comments

    WRONG.

    Obama dropped to 46 today.

     


    by Flavius on Fri, 10/26/2012 - 2:12pm