Prius goes roomy

Toyota previews Prius v; first expansion of planned Prius “family”

Seeking to build upon the “mystique and persona”, in its words, of the current Prius, Toyota introduced the Prius v, its new hybrid wagon/crossover and the second vehicle in a planned family of at least four carrying the Prius nameplate, to journalists last week, ahead of the vehicle’s expected North American debut this fall.

I think it's less a matter of mystique than that the Prius comes closest to, and has developed the reputation for, actually delivering the fuel efficiency & cost savings that people expect from a hybrid. At 44 city and 40 highway fuel economy ratings, the Prius v will surpass the city mpg ratings for the best wagon, the diesel Audi A3, 30/42 mpg, or the best SUV, the hybrid Ford Escape, 34/31, by about as much as the Prius currently surpasses vehicles in its class. Toyota isn't selling its three seat rows version of the Prius v in the United States, but if it did, the most fuel-efficient minivan, the Honda Odyssey, gets only 19/28 mpg. 


Light Duty Vehicles sold in the US

As shown on the DOE Alternative Fuels & Advanced Vehicles Data Center chart above, overall car sales were in the doldrums since 2001, but really tanked with the recession. While overall sales from 2008 to 2009 dropped by 34%, Vans dropped 53%, Pickups dropped 45%, SUVs dropped 42%, Cars only dropped 26% and Wagons only dropped 13%. There seemed to be a move towards less expensive vehicles. How did hybrids fare?


Hybrid Electric Vehicle sales by model

Hybrid sales began dropping in 2008, too, but their market share continued to increase slightly. Based on the HEV chart, even as the overall market declined, even as other hybrid vehicle sales declined, Prius sales held up well. The Prius is, and has usually been, about half of all hybrids sold. Prius dropped to only 42% when the Camry hybrid came into the market in 2006, but has remained at 51% every year since then except 48% in 2009.  Delays due to the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear disaster may well change that in 2011 reports, of course.

To simplify the chart, I took out luxury cars and any model that sold less than 5,000 in 2010. Sales of Toyota's Highlander and Camry hybrids have declined. I'd guess that the Ford Fusion Hybrid is competing well with the Cambrid. Ford hates the persistent rumors that it is licensing its drivetrain tech from Toyota, but they are very similar. Nissan does license their hybrid tech from Toyota, but hasn't done as well as the FFH. Ford Escape Hybrid has declined slightly. The mild hybrid Honda Insight is providing minor competition (probably because it looks something like a Prius), but the mild Civic and Accord hybrids seem to be fading.

If I had to predict, I'd guess that the hybrid market will split into the luxury models, the large SUV/truck models, and very fuel efficient vehicles very much like the Prius. If small ICE cars eventually do adopt features like stop-start from the hybrids, they will undercut mild hybrids like the Malibu and Insight.