MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE
by Michael Wolraich
Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop
MURDER, POLITICS, AND THE END OF THE JAZZ AGE by Michael Wolraich Order today at Barnes & Noble / Amazon / Books-A-Million / Bookshop |
Newt Gingrich's campaign is rapidly imploding, and Ron Paul has now taken the lead in Iowa. He's at 23% to 20% for Mitt Romney, 14% for Gingrich, 10% each for Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry, 4% for Jon Huntsman, and 2% for Gary Johnson.
Gingrich has now seen a big drop in his Iowa standing two weeks in a row. His share of the vote has gone from 27% to 22% to 14%. And there's been a large drop in his personal favorability numbers as well from +31 (62/31) to +12 (52/40) to now -1 (46/47). Negative ads over the last few weeks have really chipped away at Gingrich's image as being a strong conservative- now only 36% of voters believe that he has 'strong principles,' while 43% think he does not.
Comments
Hard to believe we still have the better part of a year to go. Seems like the 2012 election run-up has been going on forever.
My kid asked me yesterday : "How long is this stuff gonna be on the TV?"
Out of the mouths of babes.
I wonder what the general consensus is about how these interminably long election seasons effect things like voter turn-out and the quality of the chosen candidate, in the end. Help or hurt?
by Jeni Decker on Mon, 12/19/2011 - 11:32am
I would like to see a poll of those who refuse, like me, to answer polls. Meanwhile, here is some more more.
http://www.salon.com/2011/12/19/the_poll_mitt_romney_has_been_waiting_for/
by A Guy Called LULU on Mon, 12/19/2011 - 1:46pm
In case you're leaping to the conclusion that Gingrich might not be the Republican nominee, and just because his intrade probability is now close to zero, don't forget his firewall is Georgia. And please don't underestimate the degree to which the wingers will latch on to his proposal to arrest and hog tie judges and then have the Capitol police haul them in front of newly formed judge-hanging committees in Congress. (I never really understood just how much of a nut job this guy really is).
by Oxy Mora on Mon, 12/19/2011 - 2:26pm
Gingrich is increasingly unlikely to be the nominee. He has no money to compete and nobody's going to donate if he hasn't proved he can win. After already being knocked down once ... looks to me like he's on the verge of entering a death-spiral.
At this point, Santorum is a better bet (and my current bet for where the flux will head next if it doesn't settle down after rolling through Paul) - evangelicals are asking Bachmann to merge her campaign in with his to form a unity ticket of purity and goodness (Santorum/Bachman ... yeah. That's the ticket :). There really is theoretical math for Ron Paul to be pretty well poised going in to Super Tuesday ... I suspect he'll get rather more than 205 before it's done. Still not sure how to figure that into the equation ... but I'm pretty sure the conventional view is off-base. I *really* don't see any of the other candidates staying in it through to the end and letting things go to a brokered convention with Ron Paul as kingmaker, so all roads still seem to lead to Romney .... and a *much* more dicey question about how to deal with the Ron Paul delegates this time (seems unlikely they'll try to pull off just stripping them at the state level again).
I can't think of anyone in specific that has reacted positively to the "arrest judges" thing ... from any direction. It did get quick applause, and the Telegraph speculated much as you are here ... but by and large Republicans seem to be unimpressed. Are you seeing a positive response within republican circles somewhere I'm not?
I never realized just how much of a psycho Newt really is before this either. All I can say on that front is; wow.
by kgb999 on Mon, 12/19/2011 - 6:49pm