Michael Maiello's picture

    Who Gets The Benefit Of The Doubt?

    Two recent articles, one in the New York Times and one in The New Republic, worry that Americans are anti-science.  They are written, of course, by scientists.  I'm actually more worried that Americans are anti-literature.  There's always something that keeps us up at night, isn't there?

    My friend Jon has always been smarter than me and the science debate reminds me why.  Back when we were kids, watching Star Trek: The Next Generation we debated a frequent trope on the show which is that one character or another would complain that "replicated" food did not taste as good as home cooked food, usually home cooked food on earth.  Star Trek's "replicators" were the technology by which humanity had defeated scarcity.  Energy could be converted into matter, replicating anything with a known atomic structure with presumably quantum level accuracy.  If this was true, argued Jon, nobody would be able to taste the difference between a replicated quiche and mom's quiche.  One would be an exact copy of another.  There would be no difference.  Similarly, you could taste any wine of any vintage from any era, so long as the atomic structure was known.  Any complaints to the contrary would be sentimentality.  Jon was the smart one, I sided with the sentimental complainers.

    These days, we have a similar debate about the safety of genetically modified foods.  I'd note that in both the Times and The New Republic that the authors wisely avoided GMO.  It's easier to court a progressive audience if you focus on creationists and climate change deniers.  Shoppers at the libertarian paradise that is Whole Foods tend to believe that organic foods taste better and are better for you.  Hard core scientists will argue that GMO is entirely safe, but informed people remain skeptical on both esthetic and health grounds.

    Still, other progressives are very much in favor of GMO because it increases food yields and presents a solution to global want.  It's all well and good for me to want grass fed beef.  But who will supply the steak for Hong Kong's emerging middle class?  It's not going to be a family farm in Oregon where I can get a biography of the cow I am eating.  These progressives are very frustrated with the anti-GMO left.  Why won't they listen to science?

    Back to Star Trek... the characters most likely to complain about replicated food also had other reasons to be skeptical of the Federation and Starfleet.  They had often been done wrong.  They were skeptical not of the science of the institution behind the science.  GMO is just like this.  When a progressive looks at the behavior of Monsanto or ADM or Cargill it becomes difficult to trust the science and technologies employed by those companies.

    From here we can look at people who are refusing to vaccinate their children for fear of autism or other dangers might not have science on their side but they are not acting without reason.  To ask them to believe the scientific evidence is to ask them to adopt the same position as a pharmaceutical industry that has behaved very badly, denying life saving drugs to some who can't afford them and marketing dangerous drugs that have hurt people, all the while lobbying the government for more of what it wants.  It was the pharmaceutical companies that struck the first blow against the public option during the Obamacare debates.

    Climate change denial seems to stem more from conservative mistrust of academia than anything.  As much as I think that mistrust is misplaced (you don't trust the public university but you do trust Exxon?) I have to admit that to a conservative, academia can seem an inhospitable place.  It might be that some outreach is in order.

    Certainly, science is going to have to be more cognizant of how its institutions are perceived by the people who rely on them.  In The Times Adam Frank writes:

    "This is not a world the scientists I trained with would recognize. Many of them served on the Manhattan Project. Afterward, they helped create the technologies that drove America’s postwar prosperity."

    It might be that to many people "The Manhattan Project" is not synonymous with postwar prosperity but rather with postwar brinksmanship where, on multiple occasions over the course of decades, millions of entirely innocent lives were almost snuffed out by technologies developed in secret and without people's express consent.

    This is also, by the way, why the NSA will get no benefit from releasing information, as it did yesterday, about how it has effectively self-reported mistakes and errors in its surveillance program.  The institution itself has been discredited.  Like big food, big pharma and big weapons, big intelligence no longer gets the benefit of the doubt.

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    I see your point.  The Klingon empire can be more easily overthrown if, back on the home world, you undermine the public's trust in the high council.   Hmmm ...


    "Totes," as Worf would say.


    Well, first of all, it's possible that Mom's home-cooked quiche tastes better than what the replicators reproduce because of its variety. It's not exactly the same every time. That said, it wouldn't be hard to program randomized variety into the replicators, if the scientists chose to do so — but they're scientists, right? Why mess with perfection?

    As for GMO, I don't find it to be the boogey-man that some on the Left do, but of course, I'm a scientist myself. That said, I think the conservative position is to be skeptical of food products without a lot of history to them, and GMO foods definitely fall into that category. So, while I'm not afraid of GMO foods, but I am cautious of them. If you're someone with dangerous food allergies, I definitely would be afraid of GMO foods however, because sometimes they splice in genes from plants that aren't obvious, so someone with a peanut allergy might suddenly find that they're having that reaction to a soybean product, for example.

    I get your point about those who distrust vaccines and climate science, and I agree that we should treat them with respect (even though, or especially because, it is difficult), because how will we convince them to change their minds if they don't think we're listening to their concerns?

    Finally, I've been meaning to ask the DagBlog community if any of them were aware of the book Science Left Behind: Feel-Good Fallacies and the Rise of the Anti-Scientific Left. My instinct is that it's a case of false equivalency — they acknowledge the problem on the right and then switch to "Yet those on the left have numerous fallacies of their own." That said, I haven't read the book, so I have no idea how bad (or possibly good) it is.


    I don't know the book, either.  But, it seems plausible, even if there is no equivalence with the right, just because left wing politics isn't exactly informed by the scientific method, nor does it claim to be a science.  Whenever there's idealism, you're going to deviate from something that claims to be more purely evidence-based.  Frank brings up Lamarkism and the terrible effect it had on Russian biology.  That's an extreme case but sometimes politics answers another master than science.


    Frank brought up Lysenkoism, not Lamarckism

    The disaster of Lysenkoism, in which Communist ideology distorted scientific truth and all but destroyed Russian biological science, was still a fresh memory.

    I read something a couple of weeks ago that epigenetics has revived an interest in some of Larmarck's soft inheritance ideas. 

     


    Most of the criticism of GMO products I am familiar with come from its relationship to biodiversity.

    The link I have given is a typical sort of argument for why one should be concerned. I have read and overheard concerns being expressed on what effect those sorts of products have on individuals but it it seems to me that the ecological question is the one that is most important to answer.


    Biodiversity is very much a legitimate claim, but we were already having problems with that before GMOs entered the picture, and we will continue to have problems with that if GMOs are eliminated from the picture. As with arguing climate change issues, I think that one has to be careful to make sure that the arguments being made actually support the position being taken. The page you cite claims:

    Since genetically modified crops (a.k.a. GMOs) reinforce genetic homogeneity and promote large scale monocultures

    However, I do not see why that is necessarily the case. One can have GMO without a loss of biodiversity (although granted, I wouldn't expect it), and one can have a loss of biodiversity without GMO (and I would very much expect it). Again, I think that biodiversity is a very important issue, but I'm a firm believer in arguing with the best available arguments, and I don't think biodiversity is the best argument against GMOs.


    Yes, GMO methods don't create monocultures by themselves. The passage you quoted only looks at the processes as they are being used in the context of a very large means of food production. The scale of that production threatens biodiversity, with or without genetic modifications.

    It is possible that GMO methods could even be helpful in mitigating the effects of that production if that was the design criteria that was being asked of the technology.

    Who would ask for that?


    Who would ask for that?

    It seems we've come back full circle to my comments about the food replicators.

    In all seriousness, there are at least 2 distinct forces at play with respect to the pro-GMO side: agribusiness and pure science, where I will caricaturize the former as being only out for money (over-simplifying in one direction) and the other being interested in ways to help mankind (over-simplifying in the other). Most scientists will acknowledge the dangers of monocultures, and if science can show that agribusiness will actually help their bottom line, then agribusiness might also change their ways. Of course, unfortunately, science has to show how it will also help in the short term and not just in the long term, where the latter is far more obvious.


    Oh you science types, geez, so gullible. GMO is an evil plot of the oligarchy, doncha know that? Bill Gates and Monsanto like it, and that's all you need to know. End of story (except for following the money, everyone is welcome to blog on that.) cheeky

    More seriously, I'd love to see more discussion like this.


    I agree and would add big media and of course big government to the mix. Our trust in authority in general has declined. Science is just one example.


    Earl Grey, hot. 

    I'm currently rewatching DS9 and Enterprise on Netflix, but I'm also reading the ArchDruid Report, where John Michael Greer has posted a series of articles about what he characterizes as a religious attitude towards science and progress. In, On the Far Side of Progress, he writes:

    According to that mythology, after all, every step of the heroic onward march of progress came about because some bold intellectual visionary or other, laboring against the fierce opposition of a majority of thinkers bound by emotional ties to outworn dogmas, learned to see the world clearly for the first time, and in the process deprived humanity of some sentimental claim to a special status in the universe. That’s the way you’ll find the emergence of the theory of evolution described in textbooks and popular nonfiction to this day.  Darwin’s got plenty of company, too:  all the major figures of the history of science from Copernicus through Albert Einstein get the same treatment in popular culture. It’s a remarkably pervasive bit of narrative, which makes it all the more remarkable that, as far as history goes, it’s essentially a work of fiction. 
     
    I’d encourage those of my readers who doubt that last point to read Stephen Jay Gould’s fascinating book Time’s Arrow, Time’s Cycle. Gould’s subject is the transformation in geology that took place in the late 18th and early 19th centuries, when theories of geological change that centered on Noah’s flood gave way to the uniformitarian approach that’s dominated geology ever since.  Pick up a popular book on the history of earth sciences, and you’ll get the narrative I’ve just outlined:  the role of nostalgic defender of an outworn dogma is assigned to religious thinkers such as Thomas Burnet, while that of heroic pioneer of reason and truth is conferred on geologists such as James Hutton.
     
    What Gould demonstrates in precise and brutal detail is that the narrative can be imposed on the facts only by sacrificing any claim to intellectual honesty.  It’s simply not true, for example, that Burnet dismissed the evidence of geology when it contradicted his Christian beliefs, or that Hutton reached his famous uniformitarian conclusions in a sudden flash of insight while studying actual rock strata—two claims that have been endlessly repeated in textbooks and popular literature. More broadly, the entire popular history of uniformitarian geology amounts to a “self-serving mythology”—those are Gould’s words, not mine—that’s flatly contradicted by every bit of the historical evidence.
     
    Another example? Consider the claim, endlessly regurgitated in textbooks and popular literature about the history of astronomy, that the geocentric theory—the medieval view of things that put the Earth at the center of the solar system—assigned humanity a privileged place in the cosmos. I don’t think I’ve ever read a popular work on the subject that didn’t include that factoid. It seems plausible enough, too, unless you happen to know the first thing about medieval cosmological thought.
     
    The book to read here is The Discarded Image by C.S. Lewis—yes, that C.S. Lewis; the author of the Narnia books was also one of the most brilliant medievalists of his day, and the author of magisterial books on medieval and Renaissance thought. What Lewis shows, with a wealth of examples from the relevant literature, is that nobody in the Middle Ages thought of the Earth’s position as any mark of privilege, or for that matter as centrally placed in the universe. To the medieval mind, the Earth was one notch above the rock bottom of the cosmos, a kind of grubby suburban slum built on the refuse dump outside the walls of the City of Heaven. Everything that mattered went on above the sphere of the Moon; everything that really mattered went on out beyond the sphere of the fixed stars, where God and the angels dwelt.

    I respect science myself, but some scientists are obviously in thrall to corporations, and I am mistrustful of the way that results are disseminated through the media. We are told that a scientific study tells us to drink seven glasses of water a day. Decades later we find out that isn't what the study actually said. Just look at the ever-changing parade of diet and exercise recommendations and it is no wonder people don't believe in science.


    Haven't studied much geology so didn't know about its founding mythos.  But, if you'd asked me before now if I thought Medievalists believed the Earth was the center of all cosmology, I'd have said yes. Fascinating.


    As I posted before, when almost anyone mentions Malthus, he's just that guy who predicted we were going to overpopulate and run out of food. What he actually wrote was far more encouraging, but because he challenged utopian visions he has been condemned to discredited doomerhood.


    Can't make heads or tails of your linked piece by the Grand Archdruid of the Ancient Order of Druids in America John Michael Greer, other than to think it is a projection of his own beliefs onto others, or self inflating fluff.

    The Great Flood was to punish man, and the belief in it recurring was important to keep the flock in line. Any variance from that belief was considered blasphemous and liable to lead to anarchy. It was a dicey prospect to upend that conviction. Even the great French naturalist Cuvier believed in a succession of catastrophic great floods.

    Controversy on the location of the earth/sun was influenced by traditional theological interpretation of the Bible by Church stalwarts. The objective was to avoid disturbing the laity with a new idea of the cosmos. The end result of Copernicus/Galileo research, supported by the Church, was the Gregorian calendar that we use today, named after a Pope. Protestant nations took 100 years to adopt it because they detested anything Catholic.

    There are still Druids? And Grand Arch Druids? I thought they went out with the wooly mammoths. Where are the Druids on the Pope's calendar?

    BTW with the 'ever-changing parade of diet and exercise recommendations'....it's mostly about money, not science. (what isn't about money in America?).


    Thanks for the link.  I read some of it and will return to read more of this rather interesting and different look.


    The very pillars of this system are crumbling. Without trust we are all dupes. Like a ship without a rudder, we are heading for a shipwreck. Why should we trust anyone who attempts to set a new course. Been there done that. Obama wasn't the savior, his proponents claimed he would be. The Klingons should have injected Enterprise' replicators with the "Stuxnet" virus. Capn Kirk: "Spock take the helm, the whole crew is stricken with the runs and can't get out of bed"  


      The arms race seems to have been vindicated. We didn't get snuffed out, instead we destroyed the Soviet Union. At least the arms race was a major reason for the Soviet Union's collapse.


    People who don't vaccinate their children are acting without reason.  They also clearly do not understand the science of evolution, and when you do not vaccinate your child you are affecting the health of the entire community, and of course the child in question is also at risk for some debilitating diseases.  


    Hey, my kid's vaccinated!  I'm not defending it, but I am defending skepticism born out of mistrust of the industry.  In other words, I blame the pharmaceutical industry for the ant-vax movement.  If the industry were better behaved, fewer people would be skeptical.


    I'm sorry MM I didn't mean to make it sound like I was accusing you of not vaccinating your kid!! :).  

    However, this movement is less about big pharma and more about parents who are seeking some reason for their child's developmental problems. And I sympathize with them.  But this is where staying at a Holiday Inn Express is not good, (heh), the interwebs has made everyone feel like an expert.  I have a whole theory, but I'm using this $@&&(;;://:;(($&&&&;))\||}}#^*^ IPad, this keyboard sux, if this thread is still going on Sunday when we get back from our Montana ride, I'll fill you in on it. Cheers... wish me luck on the ride .


    Have a great trip, Tmac.  I've missed ya, lately!


    By the way, I think our pediatrician presents a solution to the problem of vax denials.  If you won't vaccinate your kid, you're not right for her practice.  She's in Manhattan's west village and has no shortage of patients so she has the economic freedom to say no, but it also makes sense -- she wants to treat people who share her philosophy.  She's up front about things and is pretty laid back about everything except vaccines.  But, her take is that anyone with strong anti-vax feelings is better off with another doctor anyway.

    What I never asked her is why she had to have such a policy.  Anti-vax seems to be centered both in rural anti-government areas and in urban affluent neighborhoods.  I wonder if her decision was pre-emptive or if there isn't a strong anti-vax community in our neighborhood.

    I think, aside from being pro-science, that we're not rich enough to be anti-vax.  When preventable disease could equal financial ruin, you prevent the disease.


    There has been a large outbreak of measles in Texas of a 159 cases this past month.  They are all members of a mega church that preaches against vaccinations.  Like Donal said up thread that anti science and mis-trust of science is also linked to religion.  Southerners are more likely to be in the religious anti science group. 


    Remember Thalidomide? I've been hearing of outbreaks of rashes and such on many people and many are blaming Gluten; or would it be unreasonable to question the possibility that it could be genetically modified foods have entered the food chain and are affecting people, but the industry has too much invested in it's creation and that whole populations are the new guinea pigs. Like rats in a cage, to stupid to question what is really going on? 


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