May employment number

    By Flavius on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:06am |

    Only 69,000 increase in employment.  The unemployment rate rises to 8.2%.  I'd been guessing +250,000.  So much for my forecasting ability.  

    Obama's toast. I'm sorry to say.

    But decisions have consequences and his decision to back Geithner vs Christy Romer will have been the major factor behind his coming defeat.

    Comments

    Obama has to change course and run against the US House of Representatives.   90% of them are compromised crooks, and they have spent their limited time in office doing their best to sabotage the nation's economy so that their twisted party can reap electoral benefit.  Throw the damn kitchen sink at them, and when they squeal show no mercy and throw more.  Maybe Obama can hire a surgeon to locate the one populist bone buried somewhere deep in his body, scrape away the tissue of bipartisan cool that is covering it up and expose it to some sunlight.

    Instead of the current lame message, "We have accomplished a lot on the path to our great new era of Coulda Been Worse,"  he should change the message to, "We made some mistakes but were on the right track to rebuilding as long as we had a Democratic Congress.  But since the Republicans took over we have stalled out and started to move backward.

    It would be easier to go populist if he didn't have Geithner, Dimon, Corzine and the other Dem bankster balls and chains pulling him down.


    by Dan Kervick on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 12:34pm

    Heartbreaking stats; to me anyway.

    I mean even the libs are running away from these results!

    One can only hope that today represents the nadir or the dems are screwed.


    by Richard Day on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 2:20pm

    I agree...screwed.

    Good plan, Dan.


    by Peter Schwartz on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 2:26pm

      Who's doing the takeover? None but our own government.  Our own elected government.  That's right.  We didn't just get taken over by the dark forces because we let our guard down at the gates.  No, the majority of registered voters in our state apparently all took leave of their senses at the same time and voted them in.

    Snyder's predecessor, Dem Gov. Jennifer Granholm put the law into effect, apparently not thinking ahead to the day when some pseudo-governor-of-Nottingham might come along and tweak the law just enough to take over ...


    by A Guy Called LULU on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 3:46pm

    Scuse me Flavius, I put this in the wrong place.


    by A Guy Called LULU on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 4:20pm

    You're always welcome


    by Flavius on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 6:57pm

    And this - as we walk through the Summer and see Europe staggering, China and India slowing, and the US walking off the fiscal cliff - is going to end up as the #1 election issue. If we thought it was "the economy stupid" in 1992, how much moreso in 2012? 

    Please God, let him wake up and go on a populist crusade. Or we're gonna have Mitt and the madmen. 

    Also, let a 1000 meteors strike dead all living Democratic candidates for Congress, so we can have an entirely new batch.

    Sadly, these 2 things seem equally likely to me.


    by Qbert (not verified) on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 5:36pm

    We're screwed

    Ironically Mitt might have made a better choice in 2009 after the emergency measures-which he might or might not have gotten right-  had been brilliantly taken by O  and it was time f to choose whether to put all the chips on restoring employment or only  "moderately" doing that in the expectation that business "confidence" would be enhanced and that would result in hiring.

    A three cushion shot which ,of course, failed.

    I'm not sure how his thinking would have been affected by his JD  but at least at the B School Mitt would have been taught there was no point in almost jumping over the Snake River. 


    by Flavius on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 7:22pm

    Sorry to disagree.  I don't think we're screwed.  And I don't think Obama's toast... That's not to say we won't be screwed and Obama won't be toast.  But I don't think the dye has been cast nor the writing set in stone ... yet.

    Besides, even with disastrous numbers, the media loves the ratings that a hotly contested Presidential election brings, so they will see to it that the election will be 'close', by playing up whoever is behind with just enough positive headlines and stories to keep them in the hunt and keep people watching.  So the real game is which candidate will surge at the end.

    Obama should, in my opinion, run against the GOP House, and the GOP Governors for that matter.  Offer voters the premise that what the GOP Governors have done in Wisconsin and Michigan and Florida is what Romney will do to the entire country as President.


    by MrSmith1 on Fri, 06/01/2012 - 11:34pm

    I agree with you.  This election is far from over.  If the republicans in the House pull one of their budget blackmails towards the end of the year around election there could be a backlash.  They want to rally all the tea bag voters to go to the polls so they will say stupid things every chance they can get in front of the cameras. I am cringing for the people in Wis. right now.  I can imagine the air game that is carpet bombing them right now.  It was just awful here in Tampa last January before the primary. People don't like all this money in the campaigns and they blame the republicans for it. I think the media, like you said, is going to play this horse race in their favor to keep all that money rolling in from the superpacs. Who has the most superpacs? The GOP does.  


    by trkingmomoe on Sat, 06/02/2012 - 3:08am

    Please excuse a diversion here from the topic. I noticed a long time ago [like many others, it turns out] the oddity that the phrase, ‘The die is cast’, can be said with completely different meanings for the word ‘die’ as well as for ‘cast’ and the meaning of the phrase remains substantially the same, or at least applicable for a very similar statement.. I’m thinking of when the phrase is used as it is here.

    In one case die means a single numbered gambling cube that has been thrown so the decision has been made. Most seem to think that because the die has been cast the decision has not only been made but is known. I like to think of it meaning that events have been set in motion that are irrevocable but what that conclusion is has not yet been revealed, the die is still rolling. But that is another diversion within my diversion. In the other case, die means the formed machine part or mold that imparts the shape of everything made from it.

    I was struck by the phrase here, ‘dye is cast’ and how using a homonym of die could still impart a meaning along somewhat similar lines, with an ironic twist when applied to politics. Paraphrasing from a google entry: "Cast" is an archaic term for dying material. "The dye is cast." can mean that once the dye is cast, you can never recover the original color of the material. You can only cast a color darker than the current color. 


    by LULU (not verified) on Sat, 06/02/2012 - 10:02am

    Exactly. I like that kind of flexibility in a phrase ... Of course, I could have used the "rye is crust", but ... well, that's gotten kind of stale, and I'd feel as if I was loafing.


    by MrSmith1 on Sat, 06/02/2012 - 8:34pm

    Your comment gave me a reason to stop and take a moment to look it up, as I too always wondered whether it might either or both refer to dice/a cast mold. Lo and behold cheeky , it's got a very exact history:

    Alea iacta est

    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "The die is cast" redirects here [....]

    Alea iacta est (Latin: "The die has been cast") is a Latin phrase attributed by Suetonius (as iacta alea est [ˈjakta ˈaːlea est]) to Julius Caesar on January 10, 49 BC as he led his army across the River Rubicon in Northern Italy. With this step, he entered Italy at the head of his army in defiance and began his long civil war against Pompey and the Optimates. The phrase is still used today to mean that events have passed a point of no return, that something inevitably will happen [....]

    and if you read on further in that entry you will find the main reason it was picked up in the English language and we still use it: Shakespeare popularizing it after picking it up from the original! The entry also says a little bit about it definitely referring to a dice game of chance, not the other kind of casting.

    Now on to the meaning: if it were the other kind of casting, that would make it similar to saying something has been "set in stone," you can't change it now. The exact original use of the "dice" meaning, on the other hand,  is a teeny bit different, it's more about the point in time when the dice are still in the air, even though there is sure to be only one result, there's more the sense of anticipation and not knowing.


    by artappraiser on Sun, 06/03/2012 - 12:35am

    I love finding out word origins.  But I admit, I also sometimes like to make words up.  I'm not sure what made me write dye instead of die in this instance.  It seemed to fit.   Oh well.   Sorry about that. Mea Culpa, Mea Maxima Culpa. 


    by MrSmith1 on Sun, 06/03/2012 - 1:06am

    In Seattle, there are a plethora of businesses opening up with signs saying that they are hiring but the employment situation doesn't seem much better, there is still alot of crime and public housing has huge lists. I'm not an economic expert but it seems like perhaps some businesses are hiring to fire or trying to make the numbers look good, maybe?


    by Orion on Sat, 06/02/2012 - 4:24am

    Yeah what the hell is happening over there?

    Is everyone going 'postal'?

    Are there more gangs?

    From what I read these homicidal maniacs come out of the wood work and act as individuals.

    compared to car accidents or heart disease the deaths in your parts are not even measurable except in cable news.

    I was just wondering.


    by Richard Day on Sat, 06/02/2012 - 6:40am

    I believe we too quickly fall into the destructive pattern of chicken little in predicting doom and gloom scenarios.  If only we put forth the same energy in touting the positives.

    Again I propose we give equal time and effort to changing negative reaction to positive action. 

    It's a concept that, IMO, will deliver better results.


    by Aunt Sam on Sat, 06/02/2012 - 11:22am

    Just to clarify. I don't think the May employment number per se will impact  his chances. It's the absence of the reality of a higher number. 

    200K increase per month from May to Sept  would have resulted in a million voters somewhat more likely to vote for him than if they were still unemployed.

    Given my profound pessimism that he could have prevailed against the tsunami of advertising that Citizens United will have released maybe that million potential voters would have been irrelevant anyway.

    Those CU $s aren't just going to be spent on more of the same. They'll be spent in part to hire really talented people who will have really clever and persuasive ideas. Not just to sell Romney but to unsell Obama. For example by broadcasting the anti Obama comments which appear here (in all good faith)  but which don't reach susceptible disappointed liberals in the rest of the non-Dagblog population.

    They'll be reached this summer by Karl Rove. Perhaps even with quotes from here.

    This is not a disguised attempt to stifle criticism here. Just a discouraged prediction of what's to come

     


    by Flavius on Mon, 06/04/2012 - 10:02am

    Your predictions as to expenditures of CU $ are, no doubt, on target. 

    My point is that, IMO, statements such as:

     Obama's toast. I'm sorry to say.

    are not calls to be proactive, but one more instance of piling on the doom and gloom scenario.

    Again, IMO, there's too much of the 'glass half empty' sentiments which is neither helpful or productive (except for the GOP).  How about instead we come together for the purpose of proposing positive ideas and processes that will counter:

    Not just to sell Romney but to unsell Obama.


    by Aunt Sam on Mon, 06/04/2012 - 10:58am

    Agree. I'll back off the pessimistic predictions.

    They're self indulgent


    by Flavius on Mon, 06/04/2012 - 11:21am

    self indulgent

    Worse, it's self defeating. It only makes most sad.


    by Aunt Sam on Mon, 06/04/2012 - 11:32am

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