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    Robert Shiller:"Look for further housing price drop...Japan style economic plunge"

    By jollyroger on Fri, 06/10/2011 - 5:37pm |

    Robert Shiller (He's a Yale economist, he knows more than you do...) already famous for the Case-Shiller housing cost index and for the prescient book "Irrational Exuberance", has a message for the masters of the universe, (and the remaining non-masters who are hoping to get out of their unfortunate real estate positions...)

    Dropping a bombshell that has to date attracted less attention than I would have expected, he forecasts more pain for real estate: "a further decline in property values of 10 percent to 25 percent in the next five years 'wouldn’t surprise me at all.' ” 

    Unsurprisingly, he believes that this catastrophic coda to an already worse than 1930's level contraction will be accompanied by generalized havoc in the overall economy mimicing the lost decade(s) that have brought the Japanese economy to its present pitiful shadow of an earlier age.

    This is probably good news for the world, because the sooner the American Empire collapses the better, except that empires in the throes of dissolution are apt to flail about in dangerous fashion.

    In any case, pass the popcorn. 

    Class war, y'all 

     

     

    Comments

    If you can't make your text box work, click Disable rich text, then Enable rich text; your cursor may click in then.

    I've read here and there that prices have dropped 35% since the peak in 2005, with no end in sight of a bottom.  Think the administration should settle with the banks for five billion...twenty billion?  You betcha!

    With what losses?  Some multiples of trillions I can't even comprehend. 

    Too many 'experts' (even old Zbeig) are even predicting the flailing is about to commence, and I for one hope it ain't from the gun-totin' ones. 


    by we are stardust on Fri, 06/10/2011 - 6:15pm

    hope it ain't from the gun-totin' ones. 

     Sorry.  Flailin' goes with gun-totin' like butter goes w/bread... 


    by jollyroger on Fri, 06/10/2011 - 6:20pm

    Think the administration should settle with the banks for five billion...twenty billion?  You betcha!

    But...but ....that would set a bad moral precedent.


    by cmaukonen on Fri, 06/10/2011 - 10:23pm

    I'm not sure that a collapse like Shiller portends, and its non real estate ramifications, is even within the imagination of the motu, let alone their ability to finesse the cash flows.


    by jollyroger on Fri, 06/10/2011 - 10:37pm

    If you can't make your text box work, click Disable rich text, then Enable rich text; your cursor may click in then.

    I updated to the latest version of the html editing software b/c one user was having trouble with IE 9, but this sucks. I'm going to revert it.


    by Michael Wolraich on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 9:23am

    Yup, it's been a bit of a pain in the ass lately.


    by Cho on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 9:29am

    Sorry, I shouldn't do code updates when I'm not around to monitor the site closely. I just reverted the changes. Reload your browser or, if necessary, clear your cache if you still have problems.

    PS Please don't hesitate to contact me if you run into any technical issues.


    by Michael Wolraich on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 9:35am

    You could just issue some of us Secret Decoder Rings.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 10:20am


    by Michael Wolraich on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:04am

    Yahoooo!  Wahoooo!  Bookmarked!  Er...how do we use them, Master?  And does your One Ring That Rlues Them All still have the power to make us say "Master is always right"?

    3-4-12-2-15-5-3-4    ;oP


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:12am

    clear your cache if you still have problems.

    I thought trying to clear his cache is how Weiner got into trouble...


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:14pm

    I am reminded of the British Banker friends of King George.

    The colonists were never going to be afforded their own currency.

    Every transaction, was to be controlled by the Monarchy and their friends

    A willing seller and a willing buyer?

    Someone needs to be the facilitator of the exchange

    The bankers will not allow trading between homeowners.

    If you wanted to move up to a new home or trade for one of equal worth, the banks won’t allow the free trade. Even though the traders have placed the value on the transaction (FREE MARKET) ........ You must get a new loan to pay off the original. The free trade is not an option

    The bankers would rather foreclose, kicking the mortgagee out of the house, rather than facilitate the trade.

    What is the purpose of currency?   Chicken farmer raises extra chickens and having extra eggs and fryers, the farmer wants to purchase milk or clothing. Enter the Banker and currency, someone or something needs to facilitate the transaction. (VALUE ESTABLISHED)

    Can a home be currency?

    A Home has value that can be traded.

    Why can’t the Homes be traded?  

    Answer:The banks interfere with the free trade.  

    Imagine ; A person wanting to relocate to another area, putting their current house up on the exchange and finding someone wanting to relocate also.  Value established by the exchangers.

    The willing seller and buyer would exchange mortgages. Payments the same, maybe a straight trade or with cash, a fair exchange;

    EXCEPT; The bankers saying “No way, will we allow an exchange? We would rather see the house foreclosed upon? Why is that?

    Is there an ulterior motive or reward for interfering in the trading of homes?

    The asset is toxic to whom?  It's not Toxic to the home traders.

    It's just that the banks would rather foreclose than facilitate the trade.  

    Could it be the Banker says: “We want our money now, we want out of the mortgage business. Pay us off, give us insurance money or give us a government bailout; but just get us our money; we’d rather be in hedge funds.”  

    Banker” “If you want the home of another; you must take out a new loan”

    Except the banker finds multiple reasons to deny the NEW loan.

    The bankers have trapped the homeowners; the bankers want to control the home asset class.  

    Housing will continue to become toxic, because that’s what the bankers want them to become

    The NEW COLONISTS (wage slaves) will not be allowed to have their own currency (Home asset class)

    The New Wage slaves will not be allowed to trade.

    They must use the currency the Crown Bankers provides……….Nothing   

    The banks purposely allowing home values to plummet, then pretending they don’t want the toxic assets. Bankers saying to the government “you can’t give them away, but if the price was attractive enough, We the bankers would consider taking the toxic assets from the government ”

    Yeah right, reminding me of the story of the Briar Patch.  “Don’t force us to take the toxic homes”.

    But,  Mr. Banker; you made them toxic.       

    (I’m angry and I feel cornered, with no way out.  I hope my rant is coherent.)


    by Resistance on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 5:01am

    From your link:

    “There’s no precedent for this statistically, so no way to predict,” Shiller said... “In real terms, there has never been a bust of this proportion,” he said. “Even in the Great Depression, home prices fell nominally approximately almost as much as they did recently. But that was with all prices falling. So real estate prices didn’t go down hardly at all during the Depression.”

    So basically Mister Smartypants here is saying ... he has no fucking clue. It's not really a prediction. Rents are going up, so there's clearly some kind of shortage of housing out there. The government just needs to clear up issues concerning property rights so that mortgage insurers and investors may start to come back again.


    by Cho on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 9:22am

    It all depends on where you are. Someplace have home values pretty much the same. Some places rent is going up others it's going down and others rent is staying about the same.


    by cmaukonen on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:13am

    Sure. It's a big country with lots of variation all the time. But if you're interested in macro-trends you need to look at averages. If you don't believe in macro-trends, there's nothing to talk about.


    by Cho on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:26am

     


    by quinn esq on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:29am

    Well said; I couldn't have said it better myself.  Say; could you say that again so I could get it down right?

    (By the way, I notified you yesterday that FedEx had called and said you Reese Witherspoon doll was in.)


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:36am

    Well, I just felt Chubby Cho(ker) had had quite enough to say for one day.

    *reese says hi*


    by quinn esq on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 11:46am

    As soon as Ana de la Reguera gets here Reese can say goodby.


    by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 12:00pm

    Jeez, Lulu; I googled to see who she was (how she looked, anyway); she's beautiful, but when I clicked a nude erotic photo to see it, it shut down my server.  One can draw one's own conclusions about that...   ;o)


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 12:37pm

    I might have check my Norton security and then take a chance. Thanks for the warning.

     By the way, she was the Nun in Nacho Libre. Almost gave me religion.


    by A Guy Called LULU on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 1:55pm

    Plus he issued that Cho Doctrine: If you don't believe in macro-trends, there's nothing to talk about...which brings us to ask: Are you, or ever have you been: A Macro-trend Denier?  I heard rumors you mightta been one of that ilk...

    Are all men of the ilk who think Witherspoon is hot?  Man; I wonder how differently most men and most women might judge attractiveness/hot?  I figure she gets $23 million or something per film to be a lantern-jawed crap actor. Beats me.

    But take note: Cho is no longer sporting a chubby.  He loint hiz lessun, oy figger.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 12:02pm

    Hey, she made me cry iin Legally Blond..


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:13pm

    Yeah; her acting is sooo bad that I could cry at the fees she receives, too.   ;o)  Plus: we all know you as One Sentimental Old Fool, so....


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 4:45pm

    I am famously in support of cute blondes going to law school

    As to the hair, I have mentioned elsewhere that I am able to sense the presence of xx blonde dna at a distance of 400 yards, in the dark.,

    In fact, were I not apprehensive of giving offense, I would reference the summer I spent as a tour guide in Germany, helping the guilt-ridden daughters of the Nazis expiate their burden ("Little Rogie & the Brooklyn Jew-Boys, the reparations tour...")


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 6:01pm

    Heh-heh...you said loint, heh heh.


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:24pm

     Chubby Cho(ker)

    Dingdingding...Dayly award, we have a winner...


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:32pm

    FedEx

    Bend, straighten, and snap.


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 4:38pm

    Well, that acting so sooo preemo I'll take it back; almost as good as Juliette Binoche; and I love a production number.  (nose growing longer here.......)


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 5:25pm

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    by Cho on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 12:04pm

    Okay, Cho.  I give up; I've been staring at this for two hours and haven't seen the red dot yet.  Whassup with that?  I'm crying 'uncle'!  (Even tried my new Secret Chex Decoder Ring; no cigar.)


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:04pm

    It's not a cigar-it's called a blunt.  That way you'll see the dot, and er'thang.  You have to empty out the cigar and just take the wrapper...never mind.


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:21pm

    At the hour and forty-five minute mark, I fell through the inner slot to another dimension...but it was empty.  C'est la guerre...

    (That said, one of the few dream images I can remember from last night was some dude wearing a very goldy-brown plush velvet bear suit...only it had no head.  And NO, I don't want to talk about it, Uncle Zigmund.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 5:06pm

     a very goldy-brown plush velvet bear suit.

    Well, you would throw the "Dancing Bear" guys in my face.  Hey, it's a whole generational thing. ( I''m an old school stripper--those guys are off the hook.)

    The Iron John's Sons (say it fast...) eschewed the production of bodily fluids, those guys, per contra..... 


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 6:08pm

    Red Dot? WHY DO YOU ALWAYS ASSUME THERE HAS TO BE A COMMIE IN THERE SOMEWHERE, EH?

    no dot. It's called ART.

    HIGH ART! (my title: the ever narrowing overton window)

    Sheesh.

    You're worse than this guy...

    http://thenationalscene.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/08/8-18-10roscharchcmyj20100819010850.jpg

    ;0)


    by Cho on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:32pm

    LOL!  Damn; that dude even looks like me!  Not him, needle-head: the one in the chair!  'Specially the googley-eyes!  Damn; what a handsome fella he is...

    Here I thought you were givin' us one o' them psych-o-philogical (er, whatever) tests, ya know?

                                          

    Sloooooowwww Stardust; just got the 'ever-narrowing Overton Window'; that was brilliant, Mr.Cho Mr. Cho Mr. Cho.


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 6:29pm

    Oh..pretty. Likes the colors. Is this some sort of new expressionistic art ? I'm not much up on modern art. Most of it leaves me cold.


    by cmaukonen on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 9:14pm

    Cho wishes the window were on the other side of the house.


    by Rootman on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 9:19pm

    Root, C.: take the test (see below)  ;o)


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 10:02pm

    *still staring*


    by quinn esq on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 6:03pm

    Six hours...must be a record, Cho.  Must be some damned fine art.  Now, Mr. Quinn Medicine Woman, time to switch to the purty colored one with the fiddler crabs and  beetles arguing in front of a cell tower and seahorses giving each other blue presents and the green eels and yellow dahlia-bait that caught some orange goldfishies and...like that. 

    Whaaat?  They couldn't put any birds in the damned thing???


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 6:19pm

    Cho! Cho! Cho!  Release this poor sod; he may not know much about art, but he must know what he likes!  Release him, I beg you!   The Overton Window is closing in on him...  Do you have some sadistic streak in you, we ask?


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 7:35pm

    The Mighty Quinn feels no pain...

     

     


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 7:42pm

    Okay,

    Quinn! Quinn! stop staring and go here.


    by Cho on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 7:42pm

    Can he still hear you?  Is he compos mentis?  Was he ever?  Am I?  Are you? 

    (Where in the sweet bye and bye do you find these things, Cho?)   ;o)

    Back to you:


    by we are stardust on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 8:10pm

    Wow. I think I got it. No, I mean... finally... got it. 

    The meaning of life is....

    Sorry. Let me back up. The purpose, yeah, the purpose of creation is....

    Well.... It's a dance, really. A dance.

    It's all just... just... a dance. 

    So beautiful.


    by quinn esq on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 10:04pm

    Mister Smartypants

    Did I mention Yale?

    You didn't mention in your ameliorative prescription the necessity to provide incomes to job holders so they can pay mortgages.

    Prices are still above the affordabilty liine given that the previously well paid are now the lucky winners at the McDonald's job fair.

    It's called wage deflation and the Kochs are bringing it to  your town soon.


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:22pm

    Does this mean that since I have nothing, I come out ahead somehow?


    by Richard Day on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 1:19pm

    Why yes, yes it does.

    (It's always been my approach-it's the use of stuff you want, not the stuff itself... no attachments (that's a lawyer pun between Day & me)


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:07pm

    When ya got nothin' ya got nothin to lose, you're invisible now...


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 4:16pm

    How George W. Bush's OWEnership Society will Make America Stronger, Bullish on Bush by a current Wall Street Journal editor and lying right wing blowhard (and frequent Diane Rehm guest). Stephen Moore.

    His book was, of course, delusional pre-2004 election claptrap for The Base (October, 2004). 

    OWEnership, is the way the title of the book is misspelled at Amazon, a clever, sarcastic, play on words foretelling what Bush actually did to the country, from Amazon??


    by NCD on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 2:52pm

    Diane Rehm, proving everyday that a mandatory retirement age is not always a bad idea...


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:11pm

    Thank you for this most helpful comment. Wink I only became aware of her existence in the last few months, and while secretly thinking similar (a female version of Paul Harvey crossed with Larry King, broadcasting from the grave?)  was afraid to voice it, in case her shtick was something long beloved by NPR folk that I did not understand.


    by artappraiser on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 3:25pm

    And I say it, who might himself (were people to be fooled by my alien-produced and insinuated into my wallet paperwork) fall victiim to such a rule...Lucky I'm actually 19...


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 4:15pm

    I like her. She has a voice affliction, but bravely goes on.


    by Rootman on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 5:23pm

    I like Diane Rehm too, but her rolodex of guests wears a bit thin at times. AEI is over represented.

    Stephen Moore for one, could be dropped, he has even blown hot air on global climate change on her show when it is clear from his book above, he doesn't know jackshit about economics which is supposed to be his field of expertise.


    by NCD on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 5:55pm

    I don't mind the voice, I mind what it says.


    by jollyroger on Sat, 06/11/2011 - 6:10pm

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