Shutdown Prediction

    Since Articleman is not here to give us his more discerning take, I will predict that the Republicans in the House, led by Speaker Boehner, will not pass a 'clean continuing resolution', or any government spending Bill the President will sign, by this Monday. Their ultimate list of demands for federal law and  finances includes everything from means testing for Medicare, less regulation of Wall Street, tax cuts for the rich, approving the XL pipeline to deregulation of environmental laws. 

    Short of complete capitulation by the President's Party, the GOP will let the government 'shut down' as of Tuesday, October 1. This means about 2/3 of federal government employees will still show up for work, and only the 1/3 'non-essential' workers will stay home.

    The GOP will party the rest of the week, thumping their chests claiming they did something very consequential and 'meaningful' for the future of the nation.

    The shutdown will likely last through Friday so the fruitcakes in their Base have time to mentally process that it happened.

    After the Tea Party types party loud and hearty all weekend, a plain vanilla CR will quietly pass sometime Sunday or Monday.

    The why behind the shutdown:

    (1) An extortionist or terrorist needs to, on occasion, do some actual damage, burn down a business, break some windows, rough somebody up or throw a body out the door. As the GOP bears close resemblance to an organized crime syndicate, the same rules on how to engage in extortion are used by them. The body in this case will be 1/3 of the federal work force who will get 4 days paid vacation, citizens who will lose some government services, contractors who won't get paid on time and whatever minor negative effects the GOP game has on Wall Street.

    (2) Do it 'cause they can. Use the attention from the press to talk more about ending Obamacare, vote to defund it at least every day Tuesday - Friday.

    (3) give the Base something to cheer about.

    (4) Shutting the government will, they hope, prove they are batshit crazy uncompromising nutcases, as they try to get Obama into making concessions in a budget cutting deal with them on the October 17 debt limit deadline. Not passing a debt ceiling Bill would do very serious damage to Wall Street, so the fat cat owned GOP is not going to take that route. But who knows? Hopefully their threats will not work to arm twist Obama into any significant additional concessions.



    I think in all seriousness they are doing this for the publicity. There is no other logical explanation for what is happening. 

    What will the house do? They seem hell bent on the kamikaze move by committing seppuku on the country or something.  It's weird this whole fatalist mentality over providing subsidies for health insurance to millions of people who have not had access. I just don't understand their willingness to inflict pain on a nation that fundamentally disagrees with them. And we do. If we didn't, Romney would have won, and the senate would be a majority republican and democrats wouldn't have received more votes nationally, but due to gerrymandered districts hold a majority in the house anyway. 

    I agree with you though, it' looks like we are heading for a shutdown, yet again, and because the demagogues are in charge and they only hear the most sycophantic believers they think the only blame to be handed out will be to the President and Democrats... and on this, just like in the last election, they are misreading the numbers. Blowback, it's going to be a bitch.

    Republicans do everything for partisan reasons and publicity.

    The GOP couldn't address issues this nation faces because they don't know what they are, and in addition, they have no experience in using government to solve national problems. They only game they know is how to win elections.

    This has everything to do with race.  There are parts of the country that can't stand the idea of a black president who will have a good legacy.  Some of the House is trying to keep these people excited by promising they can win the Civil War this time. There is a internal battle going on in the leadership of the GOP. 

    I take some faint heart in the idea that a shutdown gets the crazy out in advance of the debt ceiling debate.  The practical consequences of a shutdown are far more manageable than the consequences of a default or even a second downgrade as punishment for flirting once again too closely with the default possibility.

    Yes, it's all theater, partisan showmanship with Republicans.

    They never get the crazy out completely of course.

    Like fake TV wrestlers though, they do occasionally need a breather....between one awesome take down and the next act. A shutdown should use up enough Tea Party steam to make for a cooler debt ceiling deal. Hopefully.

    Well, one way to go would be the have the shutdown fight and then act like everything is resolved but then, as the debt ceiling approaches, you reveal that the man who we thought was Speaker of the House John Boehner during the shutdown was actually John's twin brother Earl.  Now, the deal's off.

    I mean, since you brought up wrestling angles...

    Good point, MM. A gov't shutdown, just might, might, heap so much crap on the tea partiers that they won't do it again. In that way, it might be some leverage for Boehner over the partiers.

    Where are the laws against leaders, who want to extort or blackmail, the rest of those, who want to respect representative government?  Is it not, sedition to overthrow the current system and if so; why are these "extremists" not being charged as domestic enemies?

    Democracy is based on compromise, as a system of government, it cannot survive without it. Extortion is a criminal act.

    Our representative government passed the Affordable Health Care Act; it was signed in to law by our freely elected President, and when challenged, was found to be constitutional by the Supreme Court.  The originator of this Act was re-elected, over the person whose mantra was that he would repeal it, so that was yet more proof, if needed, that America wants this.

    There is no extortion; no blackmail--there is just the TeaTantrumParty, which simply cannot accept the fact that our democratic system refuted their selfish little desire to keep health insurance a privilege.

    And to answer the ridiculous claim by Mr Nut-Case Cruz, who claims to be on the side of "Americans" (maybe his definition of American is like Palin's -- those who love Republicans) -- there is NO ONE who chooses NOT to have access to health care. I just seriously wonder about the mental health of those who do have good insurance and make it their life mission to deny it to others.

    I really liked the speeches that President Obama gave in the last two days.  He was all fired up in Maryland yesterday and made fun of the crazy right.  Today he made it clear, after he announced he had talked with Iran,  there will be no negotiation over the ACA or debt ceiling.  Congress was to do their job and pay the bills they made.  I hope we see more of him like that in the coming weeks.

    He was great. Republicans having to do their job will be a very bitter medicine for them indeed.

    We are watching the GOP crumble.  The Speaker of the House will have to cut a deal with the other side to get a clean bill through.  I just wonder how many House R's that the White House knows that they can arm twist away from the bullies after the shut down starts.  They only need 16 plus Joe Biden.  The Democrats can file a discharge petition to bring it to a vote when there is enough R's to cross over.  The President Obama is very confident.  Cruz is trying to audition for leadership of the GOP because the Minority Leader of Senate is in a tight race. By the way McConnell is running behind Alice Grimes in the last three polls, that has taken all the piss and vinegar out of him. 

    He may have lost tthe piss and vinegar, but he's still full of something else!

    By and large, a big hunk of the GOP has decided that the Good 'Ol USofA just doesn't work for them anymore, on a lot of levels, Economically, spiritually, and especially culturally. Kind of like it stopped working for them in 1860. Same sort of folks, I think. So just blow it up and start all over again.

    from a comment at NYT.

    We have been told for years that our country is more conservative then liberal which now is not the case.  I don't think it was all that conservative then either.  It has just been the matter of getting more people to the poles. The GOP has a members that realize this and that they are finding themselves on the wrong side of history.  This group is starting to bulk at the 40 members that are wanting to crash and burn the economy.  The republicans are going to own this mess they are making.   

    Its all ridiculous. If the senate passed a CR with the immigration bill attached to it who would be shutting down the government? The house republicans because the immigration bill passed the senate with 68 votes and significant republican support? If the senate passed a CR with an amendment extending background checks to gun shows and internet sales who would be shutting down the government? The house republicans because extending background checks on guns is supported by 90% of the people?

    Of course everyone here knows how stupid the republican extortion plot is. I wish the senate could do something like passing three CR bills. A clean CR, one with the immigration bill attached, and one with a background check amendment. Then maybe enough of the ignorant public would see how stupid the republican extortion plot is. But of course the senate would never do anything like this.

    So now we just wait and see how far the house  republicans are going to push it, if the democrats will stand firm, and where the public will stand when the government shuts down.


    Dem's could also add a SS payroll tax on ALL income up to $1 million making SS solvent forever, a hedge fund billionaire tax on capital gains, a tax on high speed computer trading, a national right to vote law that covers all states and all counties, DREAM Act, optional buy in to Medicare at 55......the American people do demand it.

    These are some great ideas and I support them all. The idea that democrats should wait until we get a majority in the house to pass these bills is so old school. Passing this agenda in exchange for raising the debt ceiling is clearly  fair even if it means defaulting on America's debt for a few months, crashing the world's economy, and possibly causing a global depression. Sure that would cause world wide suffering but it would all be the the fault of the house republicans for refusing to pass this completely fair and balanced set of proposals.

    To be clear, I am willing to compromise. I'd accept a SS payroll tax on all income up to $900,000 until the next CR or the next time America needs to raise the debt ceiling.

    10% approval (& 87% disapproval) rating for Congress as of Sept. 27-29. And Tea Party approval @ an "all time low." Simply amazing, calling it nutty doesn't cover it.

    Is the margin of error on the poll +/- 10%? Emphasis is on the "-", in case that wasn't clear. wink

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