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    War Games

    A note to Dagblog readers - this is one of my first attempts since college to do analytical political writing of some kind. Given having lived the Guam experience for several months, I thought I'd try to use my experience and apply it to the current North Korean crisis. I am posting it here instead of trying to sell it to a print publication because I am very open to constructive criticism at this point. Thank you.

    Seen above: US military airships and fighter jets right outside of Guam's waters.

    There is something strange a brewing in Southeast Asia and it involves the 100,000 person tiny island of Guam, a territory (and hopefully future state) of the United States, and the upward northern part of the Korean peninsula.

    I still have quite a few Chamorro friends on my Facebook feed, despite (or maybe because of) having had a nervous breakdown on that island. Many of them seem fairly freaked out about it. Kai Kai, who is a very well known tattoo model, DJ and public icon on the island, has joked about stocking up on gas masks on her Facebook account. Likewise, this image has popped up in the Guam newspaper Pacific Daily News several times:

    They may have reason to be freaked:

    (Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday its strategic rocket and long-range artillery units have been ordered to be combat ready, targeting U.S. military bases on Guam, Hawaii and mainland America after U.S. bombers flew sorties threatening the North.

    "From this moment, the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army will be putting into combat duty posture No. 1 all field artillery units, including long-range artillery units and strategic rocket units, that will target all enemy objects in U.S. invasionary bases on its mainland, Hawaii and Guam," the North's KCNA news agency said.

    The North previously threatened nuclear attack on the United States and South Korea, although it is not believed to have the capability to hit the continental United States with an atomic weapon. But the U.S. military's bases in the Pacific area are in range of its medium-range missiles.

    There is something really strange about North Korea bearing its chest like this. Saddam Hussein did the same thing for years and, when the Iraq war happened in 2003, his government was literally brought out of commission within months. The Iraq war continued and escalated because of jihadis and other hostiles coming in once the floodgates had been opened by the United States, not because of conflict engagement with Iraqi military forces.

    What would happen if the same thing played out with North Korea?

    Unlike with Iraq, North Korea is surrounded by countries largely friendly to the United States. Instead of "Death to America" being yelled on street corners, you are more likely to see a McDonald's or KFC. Capitalism seems to have taken off like wildfire in Asia, possibly too much - money seemed to easily turn alot of people I met from Dr. Jekyl in to Mr. Hyde and without the social cloaks and masks we wear over ourselves to mask our intentions stateside.

    In an American liberated (for lack of a better word) North Korea, who would really go and engage the United States? It could be that you would see the cities that show themselves hauntingly empty on Google Maps would soon turn in to huge commercial centers. That depends on what North Koreans are like, which I'm not sure many know.

    Comments

    Why are you worried about North Korea when China's 'Little Emperors' are rising?

    Game of Thrones: China’s Military Hawks Go On The Offensive | Via Meadia excerpt:

     

    China’s military hawks like Lt-General Ren are becoming more vocal and more powerful. They push “short, sharp wars” with neighboring countries to take control of disputed territories in the East and South China Seas. They urge China to “strike first”, “prepare for conflict” or “kill a chicken to scare the monkeys.”

    Some hawks take the aggressive rhetoric to an even higher level: “Since we have decided that the US is bluffing in the East China Sea, we should take this opportunity to respond to these empty provocations with something real,” wrote Air Force Colonel Dai Xu in China’s Global Times last August. “This includes Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan, which are the three running dogs of the United States in Asia … We only need to kill one, and it will immediately bring the others to heel.”

     


    There is something really strange about North Korea bearing its chest like this.

    No there's not. They do something similar every time sanctions are going on. It's their way of negotiating.

    From the New York Times report on the topic published today, North Korea Calls Hawaii and U.S. Mainland Targets:

    The threat from the North’s Korean People’s Army Supreme Command came only hours after President Park Geun-hye of South Korea warned that the North Korean leadership could ensure its survival only when it abandons its nuclear weapons, long-range missiles, provocations and threats. [.....]

    Tensions on the Korean Peninsula have risen after North Korea’s launching of a three-stage rocket in December and its third nuclear test last month. In response, Washington and Seoul pushed for a United Nations Security Council resolution imposing more sanctions on North Korea and this month began their annual joint military drills intended to warn North Korea against attacking the South.

    North Korea has since issued a torrent of threats to turn Washington and Seoul into a “sea of fire.” Its leader, Kim Jong-un, who has inherited the "military first" policy of his late father, Kim Jong-il, has made a round of visits to military units in the last week

    Bill Clinton explained the real problem with North Korea  nukes  & missiles very well back in 2003 on the teevee, I'll never forget it, and I think the explanation still works well. Not that they can hit the US, but that they can sell the nukes. (BTW, his opinion on what to do about Saddam Hussein at the time is also in the interview:)

    The relevant excerpt, my bold:

    KING: You mentioned North Korea. How serious is this?

    CLINTON: I think it's very serious.

    First of all, let's make sure the people listening to us understand what exactly has happened. North Korea is a poor country with about 17 million people and about a million and a half or a million seven in the army. Over a million of them very close to Seoul, South Korea.

    They know they can't win a war in the end, but they could do a lot of damage. They can't grow their own food. It's the most isolated society in the world. When their soldiers defect sometimes they weigh less than 100 pounds. Their only cash crops are bombs and missiles. They're great at it. They're really good at bombs and missiles. But they know they can't use them except to sell them because they need money.

    China, for example, long a sponsor of North Korea, now does 10 times as much trade with South Korea as North Korea. So nobody in the region wants them to have the weapons. The main reason they had weapons or missiles was either to sell them or to be paid not to sell them and to be recognized as important. Their objectives are to survive with food and energy and not to go the way of East Germany. They don't want to go away.

    So, in '94, we found out they would have the plutonium power planks and you can take the spent plutonium rods, after you generate electricity, and still have enough to make a lot bombs. We had a tough time with them, but we got them to end that program and they kept it ended until apparently today they started again. They would have 100 hundred weapons if we hadn't done that.

    And then in '98 we got them to stop testing long-range missiles and in 2000 we nearly got them to end the missile program. It turns out they had this smaller laboratory program to develop a nuclear bomb with enriched uranium.

    KING: So what do you do?

    CLINTON: So what we should do, in my opinion, is get their neighbors, first of all, beginning with the South Koreans, and then the Japanese ,who tried to make up with them. The prime minister of Japan took a very courageous and controversial trip to North Korea. And the Chinese and the Russians and get them all together and say, Look, here's the deal. We'll make an omnibus agreement if you'll end both nuclear programs, let testing in so you can't start any thing again, end the missile program, something that they had not agreed to do. And we'll make sure you got enough food and energy. We'll teach you how to grow food and we'll give you a non-aggression pact. They want this non-aggression pact, I think that's a no-brainer. Why? Because if we ever had to attack it would be because they did some thing that violated the non-aggression pact. KING: Right.

    CLINTON: So, I think that the diplomatic course is right -- the president and the administration has said that they want to handle it diplomatically. But I think you have to firm in public and absolutely brutal in private. You cannot let them become a nuclear arsenal, because the pressure on them to sell these bombs will be overwhelming. They have no other way to make money.

    KING: And who do they sell them to?

    CLINTON: Well, you tell me.

    I mean, you know, we found some missiles they were selling to Yemen not very long ago and put the president in a terrible bind because the Yemenis had helped us get the people that blew up the USS Cole shortly before I left office.

    But this can be handled diplomatically as long as there -- we should not take the threat off the table and we shouldn't think we're bribing them if we get something we didn't have before. We can't pay them twice for the same thing. But if we can make a comprehensive settlement that says, Here's the way you can be part of the East Asian community. Here's the way you can be part of the world community. And here's what you have to do. That's what I think we ought to do.

    Edit to add: you titled the post well. smiley


    The North Korean populace has basically been raised to facilitate this system. For a visual example, I remember posting an image of this North Korean poster on a thread on North Korean propaganda that I started (on a now defunct forum) back circa 2004, and I think is from well before that time:

    Caption: Poster showing missiles destroying the U.S. Capitol building was on a shoe-factory wall in the North Korean city of Sinuiju.

     


    For some reason I am more frightened this time.

    We do not have Rummy and Cheney running our military any longer; so my fear is less than it has been in the past.

    I recently read an article on Gates and according to the sources listed therein, he was the one man who kept us out of Iran in 2010.

    I did have an uncle who fought in Korea and a few other older friends and we lost some 38,000 soldiers and my understanding was that Ike just floated the idea of nuking North Korea and the war was over!

    China cannot be happy about what is going on and certainly does not appreciate our military 'presence' in the area--see Huffpo.

    But I am scared right now.


    Why would the United States invade North Korea? There's no oil there.



    That is a naive post. Based on the name too, I think this may be the result of some of the Guam folks I networked with.

    North Korea is full of millions of people who have never had a Big Mac, a Frappucino or ate fresh at Subway. All those things alone are enough for an interest by the United States. Then there is all the rebuilding that goes on in any country that gets bombed in to pieces, etc.


    Okay, I hereby render unto Saipan Brad the Dayly Line of the Day Award for this here Dagblog Site, given to all of him from all of me.

    hahahahahha


    The main threat of the North Koreans is they have thousands of artillery tubes, many in range of Seoul, the capitol of South Korea,  which has a population of 10 million, 27-35 miles from the armistice line. The artillery are among hills, dug in and mobile. See MAP OF THE DAY: How North Korean Artillery Could Level Seoul In Two Hours.

    NK, and China, likely know that if NK goes nuclear, it will be wiped off the map.


    The U.S.'s answer:

    U.S. Begins Stealth Bombing Runs Over South Korea

    By Choe Sang-Hun, New York Times, March 28/29, 2013

    SEOUL, South Korea — The American military made a rare announcement that two nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers ran a practice bombing sortie over South Korea on Thursday, underscoring Washington’s commitment to defend its ally amid rising tensions with North Korea.

    The two B-2 Spirit bombers made a nonstop round trip from Whiteman Air Force Base in Missouri, demonstrating the United States’ ability to “provide extended deterrence to our allies in the Asia-Pacific region” and to “conduct long-range, precision strikes quickly and at will,” the American command in the South Korean capital, Seoul, said in a statement.

    It was the first time the American military publicly confirmed a B-2 mission over the Korean Peninsula. As the bombers dropped inert munitions that they carried 6,500 miles over the Pacific to an island bombing range off South Korea’s west coast, Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel conferred with his South Korean counterpart, Kim Kwan-jin, on the phone, reaffirming the United States’ “unwavering” commitment to defend the South.

    After suffering from the American carpet-bombing during the 1950-53 Korean War, North Korea remains particularly sensitive about American bombers. It keeps most of its key military installations underground and its war cries typically reach a frenetic pitch when American bombers fly over South Korea during military exercises. The resulting fear and anti-American sentiment is used by the regime to make its people rally behind the North’s “military-first” leadership.

    Both B-52 and B-2 can launch nuclear-armed cruise missiles. The Pentagon used their training sorties over the Korean Peninsula to highlight the role the long-distance strategic bombers play as part of Washington’s “nuclear umbrella” over South Korea and Japan [....]


    North Korea readies rockets after U.S. show of force | Reuters

    North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signed off on the order at a midnight meeting of top generals and "judged the time has come to settle accounts with the U.S. imperialists in view of the prevailing situation", the official KCNA news agency said.

     

    "He finally signed the plan on technical preparations of strategic rockets of the KPA (Korean People's Army), ordering them to be on standby for fire so that they may strike any time the U.S. mainland, its military bases in the operational theaters in the Pacific, including Hawaii and Guam, and those in South Korea," KCNA said.
     
    South Korea's Yonhap news agency reported there had been additional troop and vehicle movements at the North's mid- and long-range missile sites, indicating they may be ready to fire.

    http://globalpublicsquare.blogs.cnn.com/2013/03/28/no-north-korea-cant-h...

    North Korea's announcement via state TV that it was preparing to target Guam, Hawaii and the continental United States – and had readied its “rocket and long-range artillery” forces for the purpose – has inspired a cacophony of speculation across the globe.

    But the fact is that despite the bombast, and unless there has been a miraculous turnaround among North Korea’s strategic forces, there is little to no chance that it could successfully land a missile on Guam, Hawaii or anywhere else outside the Korean Peninsula that U.S. forces may be stationed.

    North Korea doesn't appear to have the capability to carry out its latest threat to attack U.S. bases in Hawaii, Guam or the U.S. mainland. From what we know of its existing inventory, it does have Scud derived missiles that could complicate the situation on the Korean Peninsula, and they could likely reach Japan. But anything further is probably an empty threat.


    there is little to no chance that it could successfully land a missile on Guam, Hawaii or anywhere else outside the Korean Peninsula that U.S. forces may be stationed.

    Not really all that reassuring.  It recalled a phrase we sometimes used as kids:  Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades and nuclear war.

     


    We always stopped at horseshoes, and since I didn't know how to play horseshoes I didn't understand what I was saying.  But hand grenades and nuclear war I get.  Who knew?


    Again, this is all about South Korea and Japan, not Guam (and need I add that  the real problem is that China and Russia do not like the U.S. policing that hood?)

    US warns North Korea of increased isolation if threats escalate further
    White House says US will not be intimidated by 'bellicose rhetoric' and is fully capable of defending itself and its allies
    Ewen MacAskill in Washington, guardian.co.uk, 29 March 2013

    [.....} Mark Fitzpatrick, director of the non-proliferation and disarmament programme of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, played down the threat. "North Korea is upping its rhetoric to a world-class level, but it's still just rhetoric. They have no capability to hit the US mainland with anything – except through cyberspace. Their only tested missiles can fly a maximum of 1,600km, less than half the distance to Guam."

    Fitzpatrick, who is scheduled to lead a thinktank discussion at the institute's Washington office next Thursday on whether the US policy of patience has run its course and instead it should pursue reunification of the Korean peninsula, said Friday that while North Korea is limited in its ability to hit US targets, it poses a threat to South Korea and Japan.

    "Their Scuds and Nodongs can hit anywhere in South Korea and Japan. Using them would be suicidal, of course. The far more likely scenario is a pin-prick attack in the nature of the 2010 attacks. This time, however, South Korea is determined to respond with an eye for an eye, in order to restore deterrence. North Korea's ensuing response could trigger a larger conflagration."

    Jim Walsh, a specialist on security and nuclear weapons at MIT, played down the prospect of an attack on the US, but said: "The reason it is scary is: you can get war even when no one intends to have a war. All the sides – South Korea, North Korea and others – are now leaning into each other, and if someone makes a mistake, I am concerned that that mistake will escalate into something larger than anyone expected.

    "Suddenly you have a young man in a closed country who has to decide whether he is going to respond to your actions."

    The risk was not of a North Korean attack on the US but on South Korea that would bring in the US, he said. [.....]

    Furthermore, from other reading, I get the impression that what the Obama administration is trying to do here is say to Kim Jong-un: if you want to continue to play the same game your daddy did and get away with it, you're going to have to learn to play it exactly like he did or not at all, because we can easily show you out as a bluffer in front of your people.

    P.S. Where's Dennis Rodman? devil


    I put the Guam touch in there just for personal reasons, artappraiser. Heh heh. Of course you are right. =P


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