538's Saturday's new polls

            Pollster                         Number                                                                                                                                   ______                          polled

     

    FL      St.Pete's polls               2733    Nelson      48   Scott     49

    TX     Change Research         1211    O'Rourke   49   Cruz      49

    MO   Remington Research    1429    McCaskill   47    Hawley   47

    FL    Targoz                              558   Nelson        45    Scott      49

    This tweet made me remember (doh!) that in high school, I helped fight for this to be possible

    This not just another tweeter, this the senior Senator from Hawaii

    If young people vote in numbers anywhere near the percentages of other generations they can get any policy they want. College affordability, climate, civil rights, healthcare, immigration whatever your generation decides. It’s your government if you just take it over.

    538 is no more

    I've been posting 538's daily forecast for the House and Senate election.

    It's aged out of From the Readers so I'll stop.

    What I've learned is that nothing has changed much during that week of ten days: 538 calculates the dems

    will carry the House and not the Senate. By about  they would have done when I started.

    I'll post it again on Election eve.

     

    jollyroger's picture

    Does Locating migrant holding pens on military bases + revocation of birthright citizenship =concentration camps beyond the reach of Habeas Corpus?

    We have leaned in recent months that the proposed solution to the flood of refugees seeking adjudication of their asylum claims will not be to increase the number of tribunals, but to prepare to house for years on miitary bases the resulting multitudes frozen "in transit" (usage taken advisedly)

    Hard upon adoption of that policy, the visible tide feeding this population is routinely forced by similar (and explicitly intentional) under resourced processing personnel at "ports of entry" to congregate on the Mexican side of thee border for indeterminate (and increasingly interminable) periods of time.

    jollyroger's picture

    server stutter

    .

     

    This is already ugly--it can get a  lot uglier.

     

     

    librewolf's picture

    Why Hate Violence and Hate Crimes Are 'Special'

    I am hoping that this discussion of what hate violence legislation is, and the underpinnings of it, will address the questions (and scoffing) I know are happening across the country as it is once more at the top of the news. I am a survivor of hate violence, and I have friends who have experienced hate violence, two of whom were murdered. My experiences inform me that many people, especially white people, not only do not understand the need for hate legislation, but who actually see it as "special" treatment. It is not, and I hope the following article helps explain why it is important.

    jollyroger's picture

    March, 2019. Clyburn's first subpoena ignored by Mulvaney (eg.) Contempt citation issues, is sent to Justice Department for prosecution. Wait, what?

    Walk me through this, ye apostles of law and order.

     

    Assuming, arguendo, that Clyburn's paperwork sits, and sits, and sits some more, how is the  oversight that we all anticipate with hopeful longing vindicated again?

     

    Asking for a friend...

    But not that obvious to wannabe partisan spinmeisters and Nielsen et. al., Nate

    This is obvious I guess, but if you want to cut down on bothsidesism, put people on TV who have subject-matter expertise acquired through reporting or research... not generalists who are asked to opine on a whole bunch of topics they don't really know anything about.

    — Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 29, 2018

    Pittsburgh, Pipe bombs , Caravan & Nov 5

    Take things in order.

    o Call your best Jewish friend this morning  to say you're sorry.

    o Re this week's victim of Trump's endless  incitement for violence from which he is immune. No need to raise it If  asked , what he tried hasn't worked , let's try something that might.

    o And the Caravan . The Caravan! 

    It's not going to get here till Dec. You know that If Trump had wanted, knew how to , he would have dealt with it already. He didn't

    Something going on here, what it is ain't exactly clear yet

    Trump's not behind the pipe bombs

    Say after me . And repeat it if asked. Or not.

    "Trump had nothing to do with the pipe bombs

    Two reasons: It's true and it's good politics. 

    Let's skip to the second. The attack will  be of some benefit of our  net margin. At least to the extent that

    some republicans won't vote against us. Maybe go fishing.Good.

    If we get some benefit without asking that's good  old American fair minded action by our good old Republican friends.

    I'm too tired to continue so I'll post this.And really strongly remind you to say tomorrow

    Pieces of Clay

    It is not actually a democracy such as the Athenians practiced but I wish to make the following proposition to the city of dagblog:

    That all participants be required to register before making comments on the site.
    I wish that this wasn't needed. It is a pity that one agent should bring about the Tragedy of the Commons. But that agent has set up a tent in the middle of the square and is rifling through the trash cans at night

    Well, the bowl is set before you, citizens. Throw in a piece of clay if you agree.

    538 daily forecasts Friday am

     

    Chance of winning              

    Republican Lying About Pre-Existing Conditions

    Today's GOP, as Krugman puts it, doesn't even bother with spin--they go straight to lying, as they are doing on pre-existing conditions: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/11/opinion/republicans-lies-medicare-pre...

    Why the percentage of craziness may not actually be worse than in the late 20th century

    It's not the change in numbers so much as new access for the crazed to a public voice:

    Fascists Attack Protestors in NYC After Republican Sponsored Event

    A leader of the Facist, misogynist Proud Boys spoke at a Republican Club in Manhattan. They were invited by Republican members of the club. When they exited the building, they attacked a group of protesters 

    https://www.thedailybeast.com/far-right-proud-boys-kick-punch-people-in-new-york

    Politics on twitter: not always depressing!

    Fair treatment for Republican

    women who are raped, Also.

    Imagine , something  that united us all. Because we all want to deal with rape.And the current system doesn't. Because in the vast majority of cases  punishing  a perpetrator needs  "corroboration". To avoid the "he said, she said" dead end.

    And in that vast majority  needing  corroboration,  means "yawn"..Doesn't happen.

    Ye and Jim at the White House

    Kanye West put on an embarrassing performance at the White House. He clearly has issues. Kanye is the shuffling type of Negro that appeals to Trump’s base. Sitting next to Kanye was former Cleveland Browns great Jim Brown. Jim Brown’s claim to fame off the football field is physical abuse of women.

    Ye at the White House

    "Avenattism"

    Avenattism is spreading in the Democratic Party https://t.co/XeEJF35ujR

    — Blake Hounshell (powered by blockchain) (@blakehounshell) October 10, 2018

    to which NYTimes reporter pleads

    Stop making that a word please https://t.co/Ipk1AtRaWO

    Tell me about the rabbits again

    Brettie.

    Let's see

    The senate is supposed to advise and consent

    They're supposed to investigate instead of calling on the FBI

    Dr. Ford was a credible witness

    And  said a juvenile drunken Kavanaugh attempted to rape her

    BTW he likes a beer

    But the  democrats asked the nominee whether he tried to rape Dr. Ford  

    That was outrageous of them  

    And must have been caused by the Clintons

    Now about those rabbits........

     

    (I added a sentence-Flav)

     

    Pages

    Latest Comments