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Dan Kervick's picture

How Chief Justice Rube Goldberg Saved the Individual Mandate

Imagine that the US Congress someday decides that as a matter of national security it is imperative for each American adult to be in possession of a smartphone.  (Perhaps they believe that we might all need to receive an important text message from Homeland Security in the event of a major terrorist attack.)   Suppose also that at the time of this decision there are 100 million American adults still without smartphones, and that the average smartphone costs $200.

According to the Supreme Court of the United States, here is a procedure Congress is permitted to follow:

Step 1: The government levies a one-time $200 tax on everyone who does not possess a smartphone.

Step 2: The government purchases 100 million smartphones from companies of its choosing.

Step 3: The government delivers the 100 million smartphones to the people without smartphones.

But here is something Congress is not permitted to do:

Step 1: The government mandates that everyone without a smartphone buys a smartphone from the company of their own choosing.

Step 2:  Nothing else.   All done.

Now isn’t this restriction ridiculous?  For one thing, the extra steps in the first procedure add pointless bureaucratic costs to accomplish the very same end result accomplished by the second procedure.  Also, in the second procedure, American adults without a smartphone get to choose their own smartphone company.   But if the first procedure is followed, the government buys the phones for them from the companies the government chooses.  What sensible country would permit the former procedure but prohibit the latter?

[Read the rest at New Economic Perspectives]

Government food bank - you will be required to eat at the government soup kitchen, and if not, you'll pay a refusenik tax and then be required to eat at the government soup kitchen.

At the same time, it's kinda our own damn fault - too damn tricky on that ACA. If refusenik fines was supposed to pay for it, why not just levy an income-scaled levy for those without health care and provide it out of Medicare? Would that need 3000 pages of fine print? If you want the care from another provider, you get a letter from your doctor transferring care to X provider - your payment & government matching move over. (a bit like those private school credits the right is always yammering about)

I'm waiting for the fine tax on blonde-haired, green-eyed left-handers.

Next time I get a parking fine tax or speeding ticket tax, I'll be sure to let my kids know I'm just being a fine upstanding citizen.

For a group that dislikes taxes, this fungible "everything is really a tax" notion will extend their goofiness a long way.

Does the term "mandate" imply permanency; a right?

Whereas a tax can be adjusted or eliminated, depending upon whose in power?

I don't think mandates have anything to do with permanent rights.  A mandate is just a law requiring you to do something.  You can adjust a mandate with new legislation as easily as you can adjust a tax.

Last night, I drafted an entire post on what's a tax, what's a fine, what's a fee and what's a penalty.  The whole thing kind of devolved into a kind of reductionist soup.  Because, when it comes down to it, especially from the perspective of personal finance, it very often doesn't matter.

This is why I never understood the "your taxes will go up," argument about single payer.  Somebody is going to take money out of your check every two weeks.  It might be the U.S. Treasury, it might be Aetna.  What's acceptable should come down to who you believe will deliver the best services at the lowest costs, not whether you're paying a tax or a bill.

My ethical problem with the health care mandate or with your hypothetical smartphone mandate is that I believe that if the public is going to demand that the individual make a purchase that the public should provide some non-profit option to the consumer, at the public's expense.  The government should, in your example, make smartphones and administer its own service plans, competing with private industry.  The government should also, in exchange for the mandate subsidy, tightly regulate the private providers, making sure that the phones are affordable, that the service is acceptable and that costs don't skyrocket.

To me, the biggest question about the ACA, now that the mandate issue is settled, is whether or not the ACA asked enough of the private insurance market to justify the mandate subsidy.  Time will tell.

This whole debate ignores the central point: People are already getting a service and others are already buying it for them.

If you want to make any of these arguments make sense, then you have to repeal the law that says everyone, regardless of insurance status, has to be treated.

As Scalia put it, "Un-obligate yourself." Or as Ron Paul put it, "Let them die."

Then we can have a discussion about forcing people to buy coverage. Right now, they and we have already bought it and are already getting it, albeit in a very bad way.

Except that this is not as big a problem as some would have you believe.

I wrote this for Forbes back in 2009:

"The uninsured, it turns out, aren't free riders at all. Instead of piggybacking on the generosity of others, they just use less health care. Uninsured individuals spent 38% less on health care than insured people did in 2008. They paid $30 billion out of pocket. Poorer uninsured people also used $13 billion in care that was paid for by charities and government programs. At most, the uninsured left the system with $7 billion in unpaid bills. That's a lot of money, but it's only 1.1% of the $1.3 trillion spent on health care that year."

Is that a stupid way to deliver health care?  You bet.  But most uninsured people just pay their bills in full.  So, it's hard to argue that people are buying them anything (with the exception of charities who are acting freely).  Again, I think that's a sorry state of affairs, I just don't think you can point to the uninsured as taking advantage of anyone in aggregate.

What about all them bankruptcies from not being able to pay one's medical bills?

But there's another point about insurance...

Insurance is there and costs something even when you don't use it. The cost is based on the risk, which is partly calculated on actual expenditures but also on exposure.

The obvious example most people are familiar with is...car insurance. Often, the person in the wrong will pay for the other person's repairs out of pocket in order to keep his premiums from going up. He wants it off the books.

That saves him from seeing his premiums go up, but they don't go down either. And if there's a police report, they may get reported and cause his premiums to go up. Not sure if they've gotten this clever.

My point is: buying insurance isn't like buying almost anything else. You don't "get" anything except peace of mind. You get "coverage," which is "nothing," but a very expensive "nothing."

So even if they don't use their "coverage," we are still paying for it. So a lot depends on how insurers (and the government and providers) are calculating this risk, this exposure.

And we are paying for it in other ways, including having all those sick people miss work, go on disability, impact other peoples' health, the medical costs of having to treat a greater number of deeply sick people who haven't done prevention or seen primary care physicians, and so on.

Moreover, when the poor pay out of pocket, they pay much more for services.

Well, that differential ripples through the economy. Maybe it means they need food stamps instead of being able to buy food. And so on.

Actually, as Ruth Bader Ginsburg wrote yesterday, with evidentiary support herself, the uninsured left $43 billion of their $116 billion of 2008 medical bills unpaid, so the idea that they are not free riders is simply wrong.

Ah, I'd have to reverse engineer sources from 3 years ago to have the factual argument.  Though nobody ever took issue with the numbers I used back then, which shows a much lower "unpaid" tab.

I tend to assume that the record material before Justice Ginsburg has some solid empirical basis.

Justice Ginsburg does have solid empirical basis for what she wrote.

The Study:

KEY FINDINGS
While people without health insurance often delay or forgo care, in 2008, the uninsured received $116 billion worth of care from hospitals, doctors, and other providers. Those costs were covered in the following ways:

  •  The uninsured paid for, on average, more than one-third (37 percent) of the total costs of the care they received out of their own pockets.
  • Third-party sources, such as government programs and charities, paid for another 26 percent of that care.
  • The remaining amount, approximately $42.7 billion in 2008, was unpaid and constituted uncompensated care.

Furthermore:

To make up for this uncompensated care, the costs were shifted to insurers in the form of higher charges for health services. These higher charges are then passed on to families and businesses as higher premiums. The impact of this hidden health tax on annual premiums for families and individuals in 2008 was as follows:

  • For family health care coverage, the hidden health tax was $1,017.
  • For health coverage provided to single individuals, the hidden health tax was $368.

Except 2/3 of bankruptcies are medically related.  Of that 2/3, 75% had health insurance.  So a whole lot of insured people are also not paying their bills.

http://www.pnhp.org/new_bankruptcy_study/Bankruptcy-2009.pdf

That's not an "except" at all.  38% of the uninsured's tab is not picked up.  Your source does not suggest a percentage of the insured pool's bills that are not paid in comparison to the uninsured pool.  As such, it is not even a point in contrast to the one Ginsburg made.  If the number were, say, 10% (which it isn't, presumably), that doesn't make paid the $43 billion that the uninsured didn't pay.

As an aside on insured-bankrupt folks, which again is a different subject, your comment appears to suggest that in a bankruptcy, the debtor doesn't pay medical bills, as if filing a BK = zero payments.  That isn't correct.  Various amounts will be paid to creditors in a bankruptcy, often 100% to classes of creditors, seldom zero.

I think it's relevant you take into account in MA when mandates went into place medical bankruptcies increased because it's a pretty clear illustration that just because people gain insurance does not resolve the issue of unpaid medical bills. 

If you take someone uninsured and require them to pay 8% of their salary for insurance (let's assume $4,000).  And then they need to actually use care requiring an additional $3,500 deductible and 40% of the costs.  Someone uninsured may have been able to pay the bill to emergency room for $2000 for a broken leg.  Now they have the wonder of insurance, break their leg and have to pay 2K on top of their already paid premiums.  

You'll find oodles of studies about to cost for uninsured care.  Can't find any relevant studies on how much percent of the unpaid medical debt is due to insured people.  Probably because the insurance companies don't like to promote those studies :).  But medical bankruptcies are a good first gauge and if 3/4 of them are insured, doesn't take a genius to figure out universal access to insurance does not equal universal access to health care.

Upthread, we had the canard that the uninsured are not "free riders."  Ruth Ginsburg and $43 billion disagree.  Your response is to point away at the fact that someone else might be (albeit to a significantly lesser degree not quantified or sourced in your comment) also a free rider.  If true, however unquantified, that's not responsive to my point. 

Just as your comment did not engage the point of mine, I decline to engage your comment's conclusion, in which you suggest it would be dumb not to understand that insurance does not equal health care.  You and Peter seem to be having all kinds of fun discussing the wisdom of the mandate and broader issues, and I don't think I could possibly add value to that.  :)

So clearly, they are UNDER-insured, which is why the mandate mandates GOOD insurance, and not any ole insurance you might choose to buy.

Huh? These bankruptcies are often people with good jobs and excellent insurance policies. But not enough to stave off the rising price of actually using your insurance.

Sandra Day O'Connor wrote an op-ed about how she was being stressed by the costs of insurance and medical payments. People can go from $200K jobs & nice houses to homeless from a not-so-unusual medical emergency. Or do you assume a Supreme Court justice is under-insured as well?

The problem with the downtrodden is they set themselves up to be trod on, eh?

Mutatis mutandis.

If the insurance is insufficient to meet the need it was intended to meet by the people who sold it, the person is under-protected, under-insured.

But this touches on controlling the underlying medical costs, not just creating good insurance. You have to do both.

This problem also exists if we go to Medicare For All.

Well then you will be especially pleased to know I am quoting the terms of the ACA bronze plan on the exchanges which I fully agree is underinsured.

Then it needs to be improved.

And underlying medical costs need to be controlled.

There may be certain treatments where it is more economical to pay for the treatment out of pocket than to have insurance pay for it.

But on the "big ones," it is not.

I don't accept turning contingent facts into broad principles. You aren't going to get a system in which no one falls through the cracks in some way. The proper response is to fill the cracks.

You just haven't made good arguments that ACA is irremediably flawed and un-fixable where need be.

No she didn't. The former justice said that she lives in constant fear of major uninsured health bills. Not her own -- those of her son. He can't afford insurance because his son -- her grandchild -- has a preexisting condition. And she didn't write about it she spoke as a keynote speaker. That little link up there will explain all of it to you.

Oh Wow, he is helped by Obamacare!

What the hell is your point? Do you need to fuck with people over whether she "wrote" or "spoke"? Did I say her worries were about her own condition? Does it being helped by Obamacare have anything to do with Schwarz's contention that people who go bankrupt from medical emergencies must have been "underinsured"? Do you have modes other than Annoying I and Annoying II? How about go play "mirror mirror on the wall" to see who's most clever of them all. It's a great game, right up your alley.

 

I am telling you to get your facts straight. She wasn't talking about herself, she was really talking about her son, who isn't on medicare as she is, not being able to afford their medical bills, because he is uninsured, because his son has a pre-existing condition and his bills as a result of not having insurance could bankrupt him. He and his family  benefit from ACA.

You claimed she was being stressed by the cost of insurance. Not true. 

You wrote:

Sandra Day O'Connor wrote an op-ed about how she was being stressed by the costs of insurance and medical payments. People can go from $200K jobs & nice houses to homeless from a not-so-unusual medical emergency. Or do you assume a Supreme Court justice is under-insured as well?

She was talking about her son, who can't get insurance because his child has a pre-existing condition. That is what you wrote, and of course you didn't link to anything at all. You are wrong on the facts of what the justice said, completely and totally wrong.  That is my point.

I know it's your point, and you're being weird and picayune - wrote vs. spoke and all that. Whether it's her, her son, her grandkid, chances are she'd take responsibility when they can't pay, and stand the chance of destroying her life savings in a month if the situation is bad enough.

(or as Ned says in Groundhog Day, "you can never have too much insurance", right?)

But my point had been that even employer-provided plans can be insufficient for a medical emergency, and if you can't work, there's a chance you can lose your job, house, insurance coverage, etc. in a very short time. 

Of course insurance companies also sell predator "health insurance" policies that don't cover anything, ripping off consumers.

So tut-tut-tsk-tsk about under-insurance is another "they got their come-uppance" kind of moment. Most of it's a gamble and hardly worth the price.

And as that $116 billion is cash payment, how much is severe overcharge vs. insurance-backed charges?

The 41.2 million Americans without health insurance are often forced to pay up to 70 percent more than insurance companies do for healthcare bills. - 

http://www.alternet.org/story/16466/

“There is no way to avoid being overbilled. It is going to happen. In the last several years of looking at hundreds of bills, I’ve run across only one hospital bill with no errors” - http://www.health.com/health/article/0,,20456472,00.html

 

In North Carolina’s cities, these hospitals are piling up profits, along with billions of dollars in reserves. (Duke’s total profit, which includes investment income, rose to a half-billion dollars in 2011, a margin of 20.1 percent.) ...They’ve made their money largely from employer-sponsored health insurance, often inflating prices on drugs and procedures – sometimes to three, four or 10 times over costs.  ...Unlike insurance companies, which are easy to dislike, hospitals are easy to love. ... But one trend driving costs – the growing market power of hospitals – has gone largely unnoticed. http://www.newsobserver.com/2012/04/22/2016905/north-carolinas-urban-hospitals.html#storylink=cp

 

 

an uninsured patient earning $25,000 a year would qualify for a 25 percent discount off the full charges if he or she paid right away.

That would bring a $20,000 hospital bill down to $15,000. But on a typical hospital stay, even that would amount to more than twice what the hospital spent to provide care. That’s because the hospital’s charges are, on average, more than three times its costs, according to federal data. - http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/04/22/1085533/-Hospitals-Overcharge-Uninsured-Patients

To your point about bankruptcies and the medical debts discharged -- wouldn't those fall into the $7 billion -- the less than 1% of the total health care spend?  They're negligible in aggregate, even if they're terrible for the people who have to endure them.  To the extent that these people wanted insurance but couldn't get it, the ACA is great, by the way.

As for the rest of your argument -- sure, insurance actuaries set rates for the rest of us based, in part, on how many people they think will opt out and take their chances.  So, we do pay for that choice. But it seems that part of the problem is the primacy of insurance as opposed to the primacy of access to health care services.  Maybe insurance isn't what this whole debate should have been about.

The insurance companies take people who opt out into account when they set prices.  Insurance companies also take their desired total profits into account.  Nobody has done anything about that much bigger problem.

In what sense will people not be allowed to buy health insurance from the company of their own choosing?

This is more like the government deciding that you can't buy a car without a seatbelt or without a catalytic converter or that doesn't meet certain safety standards.

Yes, that does limit your choices, but this limitation is considered worthwhile. And there are still plenty of choices to make.

Not my claim.  The part about people not being able to buy from providers of their own choosing was just built into the hypothetical smart phone example as an example of something Roberts seems to think is constitutionally OK.

My post isn't really about health care.  It's about the principles governing the limits on what the US Congress can and cannot do.

Apparently, the government can't force Peter to give some money to Paul.  But it can force Peter to give some money to the government so that the government can give the money to Paul.  That seems like some kind of dialogue from an absurdist drama to me.

If your employer offers a plan, I don't think you can opt out and go shop on the exchange, can you?  In that sense, you can't choose (not that you could had great choices pre-ACA).

Dan, I think what you are missing here is that the people who pay the "tax" or penalty receive zero benefit from the law.  If they end up going to the emergency room they will be treated exactly as they were before as uninsured.  They receive no benefit at all from paying the penalty and if they need care they go into the same debt. 

Moreover, the people who can afford to pay for health insurance may not be able to afford the actual care.  In your example, there's a flat one-time tax.  In ACA, you are must pay up to 8% of your salary annually just to get health insurance.  And if you need care, you're still be left with deductibles of $3,500 and copays of 40%.  The rate of medical bankruptcies has not gone down in MA because of this very reason.  Even people with medical insurance still can't afford care.  It is immoral that the personal responsibility of this law has taken precedence over the affordability.  This is universal access to private health insurance, not universal access to health care.

All that might be true.  My point is just that the Supreme Court bizarrely says that Congress can't enact mandates as such, but has to re-package them as tax-plus-spending to accomplish the same thing.

Since the court thinks that it is OK to impose the tax penalty on people if they fail to buy health insurance, even if your give them nothing in return, it follows naturally that they think it would be OK to charge the tax penalty, and then to send people a "free" insurance policy that the government buys for them.

Again, I'm not really talking about health care here.  I'm talking about what seems to me some goofy reasoning from Roberts about the limits of government power.

Perhaps Roberts understood the liberal mind and realized they would turn a win by Obama into a loss as everyone rehashes ACA and compares it to every other option that isn't available. 

I wanted single payer. I didn't get it. I didn't like this bill at first. But so what, let's move on, try to improve it.

You know, I run a small business. Everyday I have to settle for less than I want to move forward inch by inch. I don't have the luxury of telling a client I don't like his procedures. Hell, most of the time I can't even tell my employees what I really think. To compromise, get what you can and move ahead a little bit is real life.

So we got a bill where insurance companies will still rip us off, at least for the foreseeable future. I have big client companies who don't pay me in  thirty days like my invoice demands but pay in 60 or 90 days and take the 2
% discount anyway. So, do you think I risk complaining and putting something on their list that might suggest one of my competitors. No, I eat shit and keep working.

What's being overlooked in this bill is that most states will set up exchanges. Eventually, there will be competition and focus on what's being delivered and what it costs. Is there any reason a Democratic Congress couldn't add provisions to encourage preventative health, better results?  Will we have a chance at a Democratic Congress if we all devolve into another six months of hand wringing over a less than favorable bill?

Dan, I needed to get this off my chest and this seems like a good place to do it even though I've probably missed the point of your blog. I lack the time to write my own blog. Peace.

 

Perhaps Roberts understood the liberal mind and realized they would turn a win by Obama into a loss as everyone rehashes ACA and compares it to every other option that isn't available.

Yep.

You are 100% correct. From Perhaps to Peace.

There are more cost controls in this bill than it's given credit for.

Cost controls for the cost of insurance and for the cost of medical care.

An interesting critical analysis by (conservative) legal scholar Richard Epstein:

He will no doubt attract praise in some quarters for splitting this baby. But his decision is wrong. As a matter of constitutional text, legal history and logic, the power to regulate commerce and the power to tax should not be separated. It is not good for the court or the country that the chief justice’s position in such an important case is confused at its core.
...

Chief Justice Roberts has ignored this fundamental principle: If direct regulation is beyond the scope of the Commerce Clause (as he held), then taxation as an indirect route to the same regulation should be off limits as well (as he failed to hold). This is a baby that should not be split. His attempt to do so undermines his ruling, the court and the Constitution.

Interesting, indeed.

He is totally wrong. The power to tax is the power to destroy, and we like it that way...(except for the weed stamps). Any economic endeavour can pencil out profitable or not depending on tax policy.

I agree with Epstein when he says:

There is no practical difference between ordering an action, and taxing or fining people who don’t do that same thing. If the Constitution limits direct federal powers, it must also limit Congress’s indirect power of taxation.

But as a conservative, Epstein argues from the tight connection between regulation and taxation, and the conservatives' position on commercial regulation, to more stringent limits on taxation.  I would go the other way and argue instead that Roberts should have recognized that the broad power to tax, coupled with the tight connection between taxation and regulation, naturally entails a broad power to regulate.

Roberts decision seems transparently political, shallow and unprincipled to me.

 

 

Note that Epstein implicitly asserts that transfer payments are unconstitutional.  He thinks the redistribution of personal income is not a public benefit.   I would argue that our society as a whole would benefit socially, morally and economically from a more equal distribution of income.

I presume that Epstein believes Roberts should have ruled against the act, but he doesn't try to make that case in this article. His point is simply that it is inconsistent to deny the government the power to regulate commerce while permitting it to use the power of taxation to achieve the same end. In other words, Roberts should have permitted both taxation and regulation or neither--which I think is not far off from your own thesis.

I'm no legal scholar, but Epstein's argument seems plausible to me. If the government can assess a tax "penalty" on individuals who violate its rules in their commercial transactions, is that not commercial regulation by another name?

Yes, I think that's basically right.

I think much has been written about this decision, and many of us have offered parades of horribles about what the decision could mean. 

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