According to Matthew Dowd we have a "hot" electorate and the "temperature" of candidates is important. Especially in the Tea Party dominated Republican party, "Passion" is the watchword. "Cool" Presidential contenders just don't cut it. Republicans think the time is right. They see a chance to throw Obama out of the Lincoln bedroom but on the other hand they don't want to end up getting it on with the Manchurian candidate.

So far I think each of the Republican presidential contenders have given the Republican base voters good reason to let the moment pass, change their front door locks, and sign up for another dating service. 

Take Herb Cain, as Palin called him, "the flavor of the week". His staying power is at issue. But frankly any guy who thinks he's going to get laid after giving his date pizza for dinner is a loser whether or not he owns the pizza company. Stop him at the door.

I think Obama may be looking for a stimulus and jobs deal with Congress in the wrong places. While parts of the jobs bill may be passed, time is being lost and the continuing acrimony is making the economy weaker. The Tea Party is attempting to bring down both Obama and establishment Republicans with a no compromise strategy aimed at killing confidence and destroying the rest of an already weak economy. Obama's strategy to either get cooperation from Congress or run against a "do nothing" Congress may work, but it is not the best strategy.

The essence of the economic crisis is a banking crisis. The essence of the banking crisis is housing and mortgage finance. The answer to the economic crisis is to fix housing--both in terms of working through excess inventory and foreclosures, and to allow a broad spectrum of homeowners to refinance their current mortgages to lower rates. Geithner's policies have done little to address housing. Hamp and Harp have been ineffective because of bank resistance and self defeating regulations.

Shortly before Obama's jobs speech I posted that it should include a Mortgage Refinancing program. What actually happened was a 15 second reference in the speech to working with the FHFA to facilitate more refinancing. The next day a CBO report, a generic study of refinance obviously on-going before O's speech, underwhelmed the entire idea of Refinance, particularly in scope and possible stimulative effect. Others stated in the Senate Housing Subcommittee hearing two days ago that the CBO's "take-up" estimates of 2.9 million borrowers were far too conservative.

The fact is that the existing stakeholders in the mortgage mess constitute a circular firing squad, each entity trying to maximize its own agenda against the interests of others. Until a consensus is formed which balances all of the interests, including tax payers and borrowers, any movement in mortgage refinance is going to be limited. Leadership from Obama is essential, but so also is action from Congress. Here are some of the stakeholders, their positions and some other facts.  

Before the shot clock rules took effect in the NBA and Collegiate basketball, the practice of "freezing the ball" was used to sit on a lead in the last minutes of the game. I don't think there was anything more frustrating than the losing team being unable to get their hands on the ball. It seemed somehow unfair, un-American, even.

I thought one of the most effective lines in Obama's speech was the one, "We've got 14 months to go. The American people can't wait for 14 months".

If the Republicans stonewall Obama's efforts to increase hiring and to help those who are unemployed I think they are taking a huge risk. Fourteen months is a long time to try and freeze the ball. Think about how much time 14 months is. For example, the NFL just started. This season will end and we'll be in week eight of the next NFL season in 14 months. Think about that, Republicans!