jollyroger's picture

    Rahm was right (??!!!) Economic recovery should have come first

    Hindsight, as they say, is 20-20.

     

    We on the left who despise Rahm Emmanuel for his corporatist roots, his dismissive attitude towards the grass roots and his cramped and limited vision of political struggle, used to inveigh, inter alia, against his reported advice that health care reform should have been left until the shambles of the Great Recession had been remediated.

     

    From our perch 5 years out, does he not seem prescient?

     

    Obama is daily flogged for the inadequacy of his stimulus efforts, for the economy still running out of steam, blah blah blah.

     

    Meanwhile, all his political capital has been invested in a dumb, jury rigged Rube Goldberg invention that engenders far more political disaster than triumph.

     

    And, it bids fair to continue so to do.

     

    By way of counterfactual, what if the ACA were being introduced today, after a triumphal 2012 election in which the Republicans, (who never won the House in 2010, but in fact saw their minority numbers cut in half because the economy was humming like a motherfucker) were reduced to a southern rump more and more like a modern day Whig party?

     

    With that kind of capital, one might ask, what sort of (real) health care reform might now be on the table?

     

    Oh well, fuck us.

    Comments

    Maybe Obama decided to try inverting the Clinton priority list because Clinton failed with health reform?

    In order to keep the campaign on message, Carville hung a sign in Bill Clinton's Little Rock campaign headquarters that read:

    1. Change vs. more of the same
    2. The economy, stupid
    3. Don't forget health care.[2]

    Although the sign was intended for an internal audience of campaign workers, the phrase became a de facto slogan for the Clinton election campaign.

    To be fair, I know that Clinton came into office believing that health insurance reform was a crucial part of reviving the economy. I remember that all quite well. Anyone who doesn't, all they have to do is check out the Clinton/Bush/Perot Town Hall Meeting debate on topic. Or Clinton's round table meeting with business leaders, after election but before inauguration, about how health insurance costs were dragging the economy down.


    Brad Delong, working  in the Clinton White House,was assigned to Hillarycare. His conclusion  then was that she demonstrated why she should not be our presidential candidate.

    In particular he felt that she turned off some very useful  potential supporters.For example the Republican senator from Tennessee. 

    My view is  then was then and now is now . Nothing is forever.



     

     

    She improved her "working with" reality and image while a Senator, if I recall correctly. And, just before the 2012 election, she was actually being lauded by the GOP, which might not be such a good thing in the eyes of the left. Now that 2012 is over, they're back to hating her. So...


    You should've stopped with your first sentence, Jolly.

    More on this...lattah.

    But first, I do believe it was the Big E's advice that no crisis should go to waste.

    Would simply adding more zeroes to the stimulus...or even making more direct investments...have been a bold use of a crisis?

    I would submit that reforming health care...a progessive agenda item since the original progressives in 19aught, aught...was a much bolder move per se.

    Especially in the teeth of a recession when sticking to the economy would easily have been the safe choice. Though his first move WAS the economy.

    I say this, in part, because Obama is often criticized for not being bold enough.

    Edit to add: I shouldn't get caught up arguing about counterfactuals, because it's arguing over spilt milk unless it yields a way forward, which it almost never does because you can't step into the same river twice.

    But two things:

    • Per AA's remark, a lot of people on the left, notably Krugman, have argued that health care is the final piece of the progressive economic agenda that has needed to be put into place. So it wasn't exactly a side excursion, as some have painted it. Solving this problem IS key to putting our economy on the right track. It's sucking up huge amounts of GDP and not getting us the results we need.

    • Though the TP mania reached a fever pitch with Obamacare, it began with Santelli's cry on the stock market floor that irresponsible homeowners--the neighbor who ostentatiously bit off more than he could afford--were going to get bailed out, while hard-working, bill-paying, responsible Americans weren't getting any break at all. I read this is one reason HAMP didn't work and insufficient effort was put into it.

    Point being...no one really saw the TP becoming what it became, but it wasn't Obamacare that sparked it. It really began when Republicans felt they'd been betrayed by their party--which had become just as big spending as the Democrats-- so its sights were easily set on Obama et al when they controlled, or seemed to control, everything. They dislike the GOP almost as much, but they weren't in power.

    The idea that the Democrats "controlled" all of Congress really isn't true. There was a conservative rump of the party that had to be appeased, in part because no Republican was going to cross the aisle. The final hold-up in passing the bill, as I recall, was Burt Stupak insisting that absolutely, positively no monies would be used for abortions. For the past five years, there's been no equivalent to Burt on the Democrat side, at least that's been willing to act on its views.


    Perhaps it was naive to believe it, but the ACA made a lot of sense.

    • It was the ultimate bipartisan gesture which IS the horse Obama rode in on. Given its Republican provenance and overt support for it by the Republican leadership, it made some sense to think he'd get some bipartisan support for it.

    • It had already been successfully implemented and was working in MA. Not only did it drastically reduce the numbers of un and underinsured, it also reduced premiums on the individual market. I corresponded with Ezra Klein on this point, and he emailed me the numbers: Premiums had dropped by about 40% over some relatively short period of time (1-3 years).


    You know, I'd forgive Obama for naivety if the health care battle had disabused him of it. After bending over backwards and practically kissing the republicans ass to get one, just one, republican vote. After begging Olympia Snow to no avail. He learned nothing. He then went on to propose cuts to entitlements for his history making Grand Bargain that would have been disastrous for democrats, proposed sequestration, and loses imo on the expiration of the Bush tax cuts. CiC, that stands for compromiser in chief.


    see here for Bold use of a crisis.

     

    Just because I lean towards Rahm's priorities, don't burden me with his class interests..  I realize that the Man from Citi was not gonna favor nationalizing the banks, but that's how I would have used the TARP opportunity, et seq.  Obviously, an new and different Fed chief would have been needed, maybe Bernie Sanders, I dunno.

     

    BTW, let me be clear that my 2008 guy was Kucinich, but the saucers came and took him away before he got going...


    Kucinich couldn't get progressives to give him money.

    I remember watching him on a gay candidates forum, and Melissa Etheridge, after hopping up and down about how much she loved him, asked him: "How can we help you?" Something to that effect.

    A resigned tone crept into his voice, and he opened his palm and said: "You can send me checks." Even sitting in my living room, I could feel the crowd take a step back.

    Much is often made about how politicians "work for us and it's up to them to convince us," etc., etc. Well, holding Kucinich to that standard, he never made the sale, and that was his fault, yes?

    (I actually only halfway hold to this last view. True supporters need to go all out for their own sakes and not just sit back like they're judging some contest.)

    Iceland has about 320,000 people, I believe. That's just about half the number living in our least populous state, and they all descend from one very prolific couple. Leaving home means swimming in very cold waters.

    Anyway, Jolly I'm not going to argue with you about these kinds of proposals. It's important that we dream and dream big.


    dream and dream big.

     

    You may say that I'm a dreamer...

     

    I'm not the only one...


    I would have voted for Kucinich too but he didn't understand even the most basic unwritten rules of presidential politics. For example, if you're visiting Shirley Maclaine and you see a UFO don't tell nobody!


    Kucinich must have been so addled by access to all that red hair, that he figured miracles were gonna come his way every day...

     

    Edit to add: One might persuasively argue that Kucinich came out better from the 2008 primaries than did Obama...


    The ACA will save lives. End of story


    Without doubt, but mostly through the medicaid expansion, which doesn't negate the fact that lives are being saved...


    through medicaid expansion

    Not totally without doubt. There's a "churn" problem inherent with ACA and Medicaid: every time they reach above the income limit, they get bounced out of the state's program, whatever it is (usually private managed care) and into an Exchange program, if they can manage navigating an exchange purchase while working 60 hours a week.  “You want people to have consistent insurance coverage, whether you’re dealing with someone who’s got mental health and substance abuse issues or a variety of undertreated chronic conditions,” Salo said. “If you get them into Medicaid at one point and get them stable and on a plan of care, you don’t want a transition into a different plan to set them back, and then have those people rebound back into Medicaid.” Keep in mind, once they go over an income limit, they lose social services help, too.

    First thing I thought about when I read that: oh great, so the person finally gets treatment for diabetes under Medicaid ,and then once they get bumped out of Medicaid because of a few extra bucks, they don't attend to getting replacement insurance because it's a hassle, stop doc visits and medication, blood sugar surges, and they get heart attack or whatever.

    Yes, I fully admit, I'm a negative nellie on this issue, I just foresee a lot of new problems replacing old problems, new losers along with the new winners, especially if constant adjustments don't continue to be made.


    Correct me if I'm wrong, but...

    Before ACA, if they were on Medicaid and starting to earn too much, they were also bounced out of the program.

    It's just that there was no place to send them.


    You're not wrong. It's that the success of the solution provided, in lives saved, remains to be seen.


    Oh I just remembered this article writing that comment, another angle on the churn problem: you lose Medicaid if in prison and that's a big problem in the "just out of prison" period:

    To be effective, primary care must be continuous, coordinated and comprehensive. That’s virtually the definition. Entry into a prison or jail disrupts all of the major components of primary care. The Affordable Care Act does not really address this challenge. We should really seize on the opportunities presented by the criminal justice setting to insure people who aren’t on Medicaid or don’t have private insurance. We need systems that are poised to provide more continuous care. Take a person who is incarcerated for some time and who is not using Medicaid services. It’s not costing anybody anything during that time period if they are being provided with prison-based health care. So, the idea of cutting that person off from Medicaid is really not an intelligent notion.

    This issue is important, because an individual’s greatest period of vulnerability -- their greatest period of need for health services, emergency care, hospitalization, and the greatest risk of death — occurs very soon after release from prison, within the first two weeks. There’s no real reason and no extra cost to society to keep that person on Medicaid while they’re incarcerated. It really should be continuous.


    Terrific interview, and the comment section was also remarkably illuminating.


    Well as much as you liked it, scratch that on the prison churn thing, maybe it's history; there's a new paradigm. Just glanced at today's dead tree NYT, and lo and behold, somebody apparently advised a lot of state prisons and jails that thar's federal gold in them there hills for the hospitalization bills, and more importantly they also see the benefits of having parolees and other recently released persons covered the minute they get out:

    Little-Known Health Act Fact: Prison Inmates Are Signing Up
    By Erica Goode, March 9/10, 2014

    In a little-noticed outcome of President Obama’s Affordable Care Act, jails and prisons around the country are beginning to sign up inmates for health insurance under the law, taking advantage of the expansion of Medicaid that allows states to extend coverage to single and childless adults — a major part of the prison population.

    State and counties are enrolling inmates for two main reasons. Although Medicaid does not cover standard health care for inmates, it can pay for their hospital stays beyond 24 hours — meaning states can transfer millions of dollars of obligations to the federal government.

    But the most important benefit of the program, corrections officials say, is that inmates who are enrolled in Medicaid while in jail or prison can have coverage after they get out. People coming out of jail or prison have disproportionately high rates of chronic diseases, especially mental illness and addictive disorders. Few, however, have insurance, and many would qualify for Medicaid under the income test for the program — 138 percent of the poverty line — in the 25 states that have elected to expand their programs.

    Health care experts estimate that up to 35 percent of those newly eligible for Medicaid under Mr. Obama’s health care law are people with histories of criminal justice system involvement, including jail and prison inmates and those on parole or probation [....]


    The Democrats had complete control of the government when the ACA was passed in 2010 and the Republicans were only then recovering from being reduced to a rump so I wonder what is your point?. If the Repugs hadn't been resurrected by Obama and the Dems were now in control why would we expect them to offer anything different from the Heritage Foundation based Corporate ACA they rammed through then. I also doubt that a better stimulus would have produced more than a short term  boost to the economy because real wealth and consumer demand are dead and buried.


    1. see below, reply to tmac...you're mostly right

    2. A "better stimulus" would have ripped the heart out of the rentiers--I get to go to war with the stimulus I want, not the stimulus we have


    Emmanuel might have been right but I doubt it would have went the way you suggest. Instead of all Obama's political capital being invested in a dumb, jury rigged Rube Goldberg invention that engenders far more political disaster than triumph health care law, we would likely have seen all his political capital  being invested in a dumb, jury rigged Rube Goldberg invention that engenders far more political disaster than triumph propping up of the status quo economic system. With no real economic changes to realistically deal with the problems we, and capitalism in general, are facing.

    Guess I'm just too much of a cynic.


    Pretty easy for you to preach about your idea of a health care utopia from the top of your Medicare perch. Emmanuel is as wrong as you are buddy and his brother would tell you the same thing.

    You know what, that law has already benefited millions of people, unless of course you are in a state run by a ridiculous Republican governor who wouldn't be a fucking adult and do the right thing for their state and 1. set up their own god damned exchange or coop or something and 2. expand Medicaid. 

    What you are suggesting is that all the people who are newly covered under ACA, all of those who obtained insurance whether it is under Medicaid expansion, in states with smart governors, and government subsidies for comprehensive insurance policies should have waited even longer, because you think your way was the only way, but you have nothing at stake you are already covered.

    Well that is just plain wrong jolly, morally and ethically wrong. You don't get to tell people they have to wait longer. 

    What do you read anyway? You have presented no evidence this law isn't working. None. You have presented nothing more than your own ego, because you really seem to believe we should all wait until your utopia can be installed, without compromise???!!  WTH Jolly? Where is your evidence that this law isn't working? It is working in all the states that opted in. So why aren't you screaming and name calling governors like Tom Corbet, PA, maybe yelling at the people of PA for electing such a numbskull? 

    However, you are also wrong about Healthcare.gov, the website is up and running and people are able to sign up for insurance. How is that not working?  

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2011/05/23/more-solid-proof-that-o...

    http://blogs.seattletimes.com/healthcarecheckup/2014/01/28/obamacare-enr...

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/obamacare-medicaid-expansion-avalere

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230473280457942345414...

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2014-03-05/arkansas-republicans-he...

    Anyway, why I am arguing with you, I have no clue, but there you go. 

    Later dude.


    Whaddya mean "wait"--the ACA, as I understand it, (from my medicare perch) actually started covering people on 1/1/13.

     

    My fantasy (ed note:hoo boy, ya got that right) vigorous, left wing Obama roaring along from his crushing of the Repugnants in 2010 has long since put in place the dualexpansions (Medicare for all and VA for all) that, combined with 90% premium support (Hey, it's my fantasy, I can have anything I want!) gets us close to NHS.  

     

    Or, maybe he goes the deep penetration Medicaid route, fully federalized and using the leverage of license requirements to force doctors to accept Medicaid.

     

    I am posing this question in explicitely political as opposed to policy terms--that is to say, that I am willing to grant (as unverified Peter so deftly set forth above) that we live in the last (please Jesus!) days of a decaying capitilism, and any policy we get will be deck chair reshuffling.

     

    That said, and without deconstructing all the insanities woven into the ACA (giving Obama the benefit of the doubt and attributing them to political expediency as opposed to venal selloutism) I'd still like my deck chair on the sunny side of the ship, instead of down here in hold with the large Norway Rats chewing on my toes... 

     

    Edit to add: As I just awoke I will attend, seriatim, to your other points.  O/T, I was watching the Lakers demolish the Sonics   Thunder, and thinking, what a bummer to have to move from Seattle to Okla. City!  I know it's hard to feel sorry for guys making $100,000/hr., but still....

     

    ps Heh, "medicare"...you know how to hurt a guy...


    Heh, The Thunder, you know how to hurt a girl right back! LOL. Well played on that line only though. Cause, dude, you have offered no evidence the law isn't working.  The law is working, millions of people are insured that weren't insured prior to this. Just like Peter (unverified) neither of you ever present evidence that the law isn't working. I put several links there for you, because the law is working.

    And like I mentioned above jolly, why aren't you mad at those states i.e. PA, TX, etc who have refused to participate as adults and are sucking off the teat of the feds to bail them out, all the while continuing to deny the poorest of the poor greater access to insurance. 

    Answer my points jolly, because this is policy, working policy not a mythical utopia in your dream of dreams where the only policies that work are the ones you prescribe and if we don't use your utopian dream policies then we get nothing. TBag much? 

    I also want you to circle back and please tell me why you think millions of people who are now insured because of ACA should give that up to achieve your dream of utopian policy dreams?

     


    I said there was a special place in hell for governors of the states you mention, and I in no way denigrate the importance of the medicaid expansion (which, I fear, constitutes the bulk of the newly covered,(Would that it had gone further) which is to say that the part of the ACA that is a blatant subsidy to private carriers stinks up the joint mightily....)


    Pretty good numbers...

    Web and Call Center Data

    Unique Visitors

    1,342,856

    Accounts Created

    376,114

    Call Center Volume (Jan. to-date)

          79,044

    Avg. Initial Call Center Wait Time (Jan. to-date)

    2 min

    Avg. Wait Time after Call Menu Selection* (Jan. to-date)

    39 min

                     

    Enrollments Completed

    Qualified Health Plans

    86,031

    Medicaid Newly Eligible Adults

    160,587

    Medicaid Previously Eligible but not Enrolled

    77,144

    Medicaid Redeterminations (Previously Covered)

    233,888

    Total

        557,650

     

    In-Process Applications

    Qualified Health Plan Applicants – Need to Pay

    81,872

     


    a little help, please:

    as of what date?

    Nationwide?

    (if current, and national, they seem horribly low...)

    When you say "good" numbers, you mean "accurate" or "encouraging"?


    Washington State from the Seattle Times article TM linked to above...

    As of January 28, 2014.

    The chart is a link within the article from this paragraph...

    "Data released today show that in addition to approximately 237,000 new Medicaid enrollees, about 234,000 people renewed their Medicaid coverage through Healthplanfinder. The new enrollees include people who formerly qualified for Medicaid but did not sign up, and those who can now get free health care thanks to the Medicaid expansion under the Affordable Care Act."

    What I found particularly interesting were those people who had previously been eligible for Medicaid--but hadn't signed up, but are now.

    You know I've sworn off arguing with you on matters of hope, so I'm not arguing or rebutting here in the slightest.

    I would say these numbers are "good" because they are "accurate" and that's "encouraging."

    As a general point, it mystifies me that folks are wringing their hands about a nationwide program with inherent complexity that has only been in operation for five months during which time and before and still has been relentlessly attacked and starved of funds. This isn't excuse-making; this is being clear-eyed about what it takes to pull something like this off.

    As someone said above, every fix they make is creating new problems. Well, welcome to the world of social change. Every fix DOES create new problems. Inevitably. But this is not an argument for not trying to fix old problems, at least not in my book.

    Now, whether the effort is worth the candle is another matter. And principled disagreements also are a different matter.

    You could say that VA For All is worth the candle and all the tsurris, but not this sop to the insurance companies. Okay, fair enough. But VA For All could actually stir up a hell's nest of problems that we can't even imagine now. And then we'd all be back here clucking about how "obvious" it was that such and would happen, we shoulda seen it coming, and look at all the incompetence we knew all long existed in the armed services, and why did we have to rush it, we shoulda worked out all the problems before we launched the thing, etc., etc.


    If the standard is to be "Is the ACA better than nothing?" then let me stipulate, hell, yeah, it's better than nothing....

     

    And Obama is better than McCain or Romney, ok?

     

    Is that all there is?


    There's an old Seinfeld aperçu that goes like this:

    "Women want to know what's on T.V. Men want to know what else is on T.V."

    Jolly to God: "Is that all there is?"


    Peter Schwartz:

    "As a general point, it mystifies me that folks are wringing their hands about a nationwide program with inherent complexity that has only been in operation for five months during which time and before and still has been relentlessly attacked and starved of funds. This isn't excuse-making; this is being clear-eyed about what it takes to pull something like this off."

    Jolly:

    "Why I coulda, woulda, shoulda."

    I'm only being a little snarky here because not only didn't you address what I said, you completely twisted it into something else that I wasn't saying.

    Just for the record, in hindsight, Medicare For All would probably have been an easier sell only because it's so darn easy for people to "get." And they start off LOVING the program. Of course, AA will tell you about all the problems with that solution, too. So there would have been plenty for the hand-wringers to do.

    VA For All...which isn't just adding paperwork in the way of Medicare...but involves adding or expanding buildings, employees at all levels, materiel like drugs and beds...in short an entire bricks and mortar and flesh and blood and administrative infrastructure...

    Could have been acceptable as a place for those who were uninsurable. Put them there, and our uninsured rate goes down to just about zero. No one wants people to go without medical care, and this would have had broad support. In principle.

    As long as it didn't compromise care for our vets, which I guarantee you would have been issue had this been proposed. Not to mention potential opposition from the armed services: "We're already struggling to take care of our wounded warriors. That's why Congress created this program, not to take care of Welfare Queens."

    But keep in mind this would probably have dramatically increased costs for the VA insofar as the uninsured and uninsurable tend to be older and sicker. And poorer.

    Remember where we showed how the per capita costs for Medicaid were substantially lower than for the VA right now? Well, get ready for VA costs to go up even more as the sick and poor and uninsurable are dumped into this system.

    But, you say, "The young and healthy would also have access to this system, and they'd be paying into it." Yes, but look at the outcry--AA has shown this numerous times--at having to give up one's blessed doctor who's been like a member of the family since aught one. Well, VA For All demands that you give up your doctor. Trade him in for a "government doctor."

    I'm sure you've read how panicked people are at the shortage of doctors and increased waiting times now that everyone is going to get care (at least theoretically).

    Well, where the heck are all those additional VA doctors going to come from? And unless you don't want to be accused by some here of turning the American people into guinea pigs and going off half-cocked, you had best have ALL them doctors lined up the first day you open the doors and folks, who've been camping out outside since 3am, come swarming in like opening day at a new Walmart.

    How many doctors, who are already straining to pay back their loans, who went into their specialties thinking they were going to be "well remunerated," are going to want to settle for a government salary, drab working conditions, and a pension at the end of the day? You are talking about a MAJOR shift in mindset for doctors, even assuming patient would be happy to switch and see a "government doctor."

    So perhaps we'd pay back their loans for them...and train the new ones at no cost...do you have a calculator handy?

    So here's the other point...

    The public pays for the VA. They're happy to. But if you think that folks who are already paying insurance premiums and going to doctors they like at hospitals that are the best they can find are going to be happy about footing the bill for the young and healthy to go and get "free" health care...or about switching themselves...I think you're mistaken. Look at the outcry when people found out they couldn't keep the shitty plans they'd come to know and love.

    And if you tell me, "No! The young and the restless will be paying into the VA," then I have to ask you, "Why is anyone then worried about them signing up for health insurance in the current plan? Why are all the hand wringers tracking the sign up numbers like hawks?" Or is this a matter of their having no choice?

    And if you reply, "But the young and restless will pay for this through income or payroll taxes," then I will say, "It's almost a certainty that any tax you levy, or that anyone will allow you to levy, will not cover the cost of care at a VA hospital." Why? Because it is the sick and injured young who tend to see doctors and go to hospitals, and their care costs a lot of money.

    At the end of the day, all the real problems funnel into one big one: the high cost of medical care.

    You blame all the political problems of the ACA on Obama's fecklessness and naivete and airbrush away all the political potholes and booby traps one can easily see lying in the path of VA For All. Many of which, I'd argue, are the same.


    Well, where the heck are all those additional VA doctors going to come from?

     

    Cuba


    "Some states are seeing more uninsured sign up for coverage. In New York, about 70% of enrollees as of Feb. 25 were previously uninsured, up from about half as of late December, the state's health-law marketplace said. New York is among the few states that saw some insurance prices decrease under the law."


    While insurers do get a benefit Jolly so do those who are enrolling. So what fucking difference does it make. How about all those folks who work for those insurance companies, did you want them jobless?

    Jeebus dude, you sound like Ted Cruz.  You don't seem to understand that expanding Medicaid was done with the law, PPACA. Without that law the working poor get nothing.  

    Ugh, seriously your arguments are intellectually dishonest, the law is here to stay it is working, something you keep denying, and the reason it isn't enrolling more people it is because of the 26 states that opted out of stating their own exchanges and expanding Medicaid. You are absolutely 100% incorrect when you state the law isn't working.  Admit you are wrong, you have supplied no evidence that proves that this law isn't working. Deal with it, you are wrong, and admit it, yes you are wrong, 100% wrong. 

    wink


     How about all those folks who work for those insurance companies, did you want them jobless

    Only one....


    Yes, the ACA expanded Medicaid, and, as you say, no aca, no expanded medicaid.

     

    I'm not saying that no good proceded from the ACA, I'm saying that given the costs (both financial--including a firehose of money to the carriers--and political capital), it's not my idea of a good deal.

     

    I wouldn't repeal it, for Christ's sake, I just think it's a long way from our own NHS.

     

    I, myself, btw, would happily jump off my medicare perch if we had VA for all, which would give me better chances at good outcomes.


    Ugh dude i read your blog, you said the President should have listened to Emmanual and not fought for the implementation of ACA.  Which would have done nothing for the 45 million uninsured people. Nothing. 

    You said in your blog Emmanuel was right and you are wrong as wrong as he is, had PPACA not been forced through, thanks to Speaker Pelosi, we would be waiting another 70 years. It doesn't have to be the NHS to work you know, like I mentioned above we are using the Swiss system not the English system. 

    You are wrong, as wrong as Rahm. Wrong, wrong, wrong, 100% wrong. 

    It really does not matter what you think is better, because there are no means of testing your theories, since to this day you remain an unelected  professional internet politician.


    when you state the law isn't working.

     

    Where, exactly , do I say that?

    Edit to add: Rube Goldberg's constructions worked, they were just overly complicated

     

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WiHn5_RfKjE


    Ah, c'mon Jolly.

    Don't take that exit.

    Remember when Bill Clinton sang that great blues song:

    Is You Is Or Is You Ain't My Baby?


    Yah, okay you didn't outright say it, but you sure as hell imply it. You think we should have waited for something better and to me that means you think all those people who are covered now because of ACA should just wait a few more decades so you get what you want.  That in a nutshell is the lameness of your argument.


    I never said decades--I realize that the electoral calander militates towards a very short window for big projects, and you might well argue that it was gonna be then or never--I'm specifically (it's my counterfactual) postulating that postponing the HCR reform until after destroying the pugs utterly in 2010 would have paid big benefits by way of policy.

     

    Now, since we're doing hindsight, that's bullshit to the extent we're dealing, after all, with a president who is nobody's Trotskyite, so it may well be that the principal limiting factor on how populist the HCR was gonna be wasn't Max Baucus but Barack Obama.

     

    I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt by believing his campaign promises--he may be a lying dog, in which case we got what we got cuz we elected a lying dog. 

     

     


    No you didn't say decades because you are completely ignoring the entire history of Health Care reform in this country. That is up to you, but ACA is working and helping people, which means it is doing what it is supposed to be doing.


    Given the makeup of Congress. How did you expect single payer or any other plan you prefer to have been enacted?


    You always bring up single payer when there were other plans out there supported by liberals. Roger has posted quite extensively that he favored an expansion of the VA or medicare. I think his idea for expanding the VA has a lot of merit but would have been very difficult to pass. But I think an expansion of Medicare would have been easier to pass than the ACA. Too late to go back now so we'll never know.


    As I am given to understand, it was the Senator from Aetna (Lieberman, Plutocrat Party) who killed Medicare expansion (more or less singlehandedly), but since they had to go to reconciliation anyway, if that route had been chosen as a way to get to expanded Medicare, it would have worked as well as it did for the mangled abortion that ultimately emerged from Baucus's tender ministrations...


    Many state legislatures are fighting Medicaid expansion to support healthcare for the uninsured. I simply find it hard to believe that a similar program would have found great support in Congress. The GOP decided that they would oppose any serious legislation on healthcare or the economy. There were also Conservative Democrats that had to be dealt with as well.

    Here is one timeline of the events. I find it hard to believe that something better was a reality. The fight in stares like Arkansas over Medicaid expansion confirm my doubts that the votes existed for a more ideal plan.


    Bear in mind that those antediluvian state legislatures emerged in 2010 out of the passivity that our (snort snort) feckless fearless leader displayed following his 2008 win.


    Barack Obama: The Secret History of How He Started The Tea Party and Became Its Founding Member


    Illumaniti!


    Try to read more carefully, I said Medicare not Medicaid. Two different programs that are viewed very differently by the public. I saw polls back then and a Medicare expansion polled very well. We're never going to agree on this and I don't intend to redebate it. We can't go back in time to see. I'm just tired of you constantly bringing up the single payer bogeyman.

    Fact is most liberals are very pragmatic. Many would have been happy with just the inclusion of a public option. What happened to that?

    http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2012/03/olympia-snowes-strange-mart...

    The characteristic Snowe episode came during the health care fight. The Obama administration, desperate to win her vote, wooed her with endless meetings and pleas, affording her a once-in-a-generation chance to not only help pass health care reform but make it smarter, more efficient, and more compassionate. Instead, Snowe tormented the administration by dangling an elusive and ever-changing criteria before their noses. She at first centered her objections around the inclusion of a public option. Democrats removed it, and she voted for the bill in the Finance Committee, only to turn against it when it reached the decisive vote on the Senate floor.

    Typical Obama move. Screw the liberals to pander to republicans and get nothing for it.


    The public option was included in the House bill but removed by the Senate Finance Committee

    From Wikipedia

    Ultimately, the public option was removed from the final bill. While the United States House of Representatives passed a public option in their version of the bill, the public option was voted down in the Senate Finance Committee[6] and the public option was never included in the final Senate bill, instead opting for state-directed health insurance exchanges.[7] Critics of the removal of the public option accused President Obama of making an agreement to drop the public option from the final plan,[8] but other journalists pointed out that the agreement was probably based more on vote counts than backroom deals, as substantiated by the final vote in the Senate.[9]
     
    There is disagreement about how many votes were available in support of the public option. I think the roadblock was Congress. You place the blame on Obama. We disagree.
     
     
     

     

     


    BTW, Medicaid expansion may have played a big role in increasing consumer spending because of more cash in their pockets.


    Bear in mind, that there were competing fields of play in the Senate--Ted Kennedy's Health and Education Committee also had a bill under mark-up that included the public option.

     

    One might also go behind the simple dance in Baucus' committee to ask whether Obama exerted appropriate (or any)  pressure during that interminable summer.

     

    That said, and with a call for input from the more knowledgable, it seemed to me at the time that use of reconciliation to jam the measure past a filibuster meant that it a had to be a budget bill, hence had to come from Baucus, but I confess that I have only the intuition of this and not any certainty.

     

    That said, once reconciliation had become essential, why dick around with Lieberman who singlehandedly killed the medicare buy in option?


    I think you're making my case--the congress that I fantasize passing, eg, VA for all, is the one that emerges after the 2010 beat down that is laid upon the pugs following two triumphant years of exploding economic growth (of course, we would have already nationalized the banks in my fantasy, so there would have been no campaign contributions funnelled to the baggers...)

     

    Edit to add: The banksters were literally on their knees...all that was needed was someone with the balls to shove in the sword.


    That was fun.

    You know, when you think about it, the internal combustion engine is fairly RG-ish.

    Sailing is much simpler and more straightforward.


    Yeah, but internal combustion will still move 5000 pounds of metal one mile on 25 cents worth of dinosaur debris...not bad (if you don't count 50 feet of sea rise, but that's another story...)


    More evidence this law works.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/03/10/uninsured-rate-obamacare-gallup...

    Just because you seem to need repeated proof this law works, you might not like it jolly, and you may disapprove but it works. It is working, and people are getting covered. It is good for the people of the nation, and just because you don't like the Swiss system, which is the system we adopted, doesn't mean it doesn't work. 

    Now the next move is to regulate hospitals. Because we all know what they are charging insurers and the insured could be considered outrageous by any normal human being. Regulation, is the key here it is key to making our new system better. 


    Tmac, you keep putting words in my mouth.

     

    Let's try again.

    ?

    Yes, the law "works", if we limit our horizon to these issues:

    Does it eliminate lifetime caps and pre existing condition issues? Yes

     

    Does it expand coverage to any extant beyond what subsisted before the law? Yes.

     

    Does it control to any extent however modest the cost of medical care as delivered, either by moderating insurance vigorish (the 80/20 rule) or by encouraging modifications in the pay for service model? Yes.

     

    What I am focussing on is specifically the political field of play and the alternative possibilities. 

     

    My hypothesis is that because of failure to push an adequately robust stimulus, both by way of too much tax cut vs. direct job creation and too little money spent, inadequate jacking up of the banksters, piss-poor mortgage fraud remdiation (show me the striped suits!), surrender to the deficit scolds, and a myriad of other shortcomings, we find ourselves paralyzed by the results of the 2010 election, both on a federal as well as state level.

     

    It is that political problem that I am addressing.

     

    As far as the state of the health care law, the failure to arrogate authority to regulate premiums, which would have been a logical component of the law given its stated aims, may yet prove fatal both in policy and politics.  Time will tell.


    You assume that ACA is the endpoint rather than a beginning. There will have to bet weeks to the law. If you review the history of Social Security, you will find that the initial law was a far cry from where the program is now. ACA will go through similar changes.


    Right there with'ya...that's why I was especially dismayed that premium regulation wasn't incorporated, cuz that way when the carriers found it unprofitable to conform to (eg, the ban on pre-existing condition as exclusionary ) they would simply migrate out of the market and the vacuum would eventually be filled by some form of public option (if only a more robust medicaid).

     

    As it is, given the state of (again!) political play, tweaks are not forthcoming, are they?


    Did you think that a complete change was coming overnight? We are still fighting Civil Rights and voting rights battles.


    No, I thought that it was just the camel's nose under the tent, and that via solutions to the internal contradictions (as I said, premium regulations, death panels, what have you) we would proceed to some form of single payer/single provider.

     

    So far, it's not looking good, politically.

     

    I emphasize for the umpteenth time, that the focus of this complaint is political--you and tmac are tasking me on policy grounds.  


    Which Republicans and Conservative Democrats would  have switched votes given the political realities?


    Please do not be obtuse...I set as a predicate the proposition that tackling health care reform in 2009 was, as Rahm said, a mistake.

     

    Why the fuck do you ask about the composition of the (admitedly problematic) legislative body before what I also postulated, a triumphal 2010 midterm instead of the one we got.

     

    If you want to talk about how 2009 could or could not have been different, start your own fuckin' thread!

     

    Edit to add: You are making my point--the composition of the legislature in 2009 was the wrong bunch to begin with--unlike the state of play vis-a-vis the economy, there was no generally acknowledged crisis mandating bold action as regards health care, no panic in the disco, as it were.

     

    That is Rahm's point, and the one I am addressing.


    Obama did focus on the economy first


    I'll take Rahm's insider estimate over a response to a straw man argument raised by the right four years after the fact.  

     

    It's not, after all, as if the right was behind a vigorous stimulus--they have played the false card that "the stimulus (as structured) didn't work"--it "worked" as far as it went.  

     

    The media matters argument is with that false charge.

     

    I'm referencing the steiglitz/krugman position, that the stimulus avoided catastrophe but didn't have enough horsepower to pull the economy into real growth.


    I agree that the stimulus should have been bigger, but then I go back to how a bigger package would have gotten through Congress with Conservatives Democrats and Republicans.


    A considered decision was made NOT to let slip the hounds of war...that was a mistake, in my opinion

    Edit to add: There was also the state of emergency card, never played...--push it up two years to January 2009, and let'er rip..

    What Emma just posted on the news thread does suggest attention paid to another insider Emanuel, not Rahm, might be fruitful.


    give me the actual cite--he bit.ly is for some reason calling up a social network block from the wifi I'm on. What's the actual publication?  My google search shows only a recent NPR podcast, no articles, etc.


    It's Wall Street Journal March 7 "Inside the Making of Obamacare" by Ezekiel J. Emanuel, url:

    http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB1000142405270230382420457942155391...

    & looks like they are giving free access to it from that url; I got it and looks like "Anonymous PS" was able to get it, too.


    Yes, it was a very good, clear, well-written article.

    It doesn't cover all the negotiations that went on over the entire law, but it gives real insight into a piece of it from someone who was there.

    Shows the interplay between policy and politics.


    you are gonna have to walk me through your contention that it in any way undercuts my basic argument viz, there was insufficient political capital to bring forth adequate HCR, and that capital would have accrued if the economy had been really healed first, thus enabling a real powerhous of reform, touching more of the very bases that Zeke has cited here and elsewhere.


    It doesn't necessarily, like I said: might be fruitful. Would raise the knowledge level of the discussion some, no matter what, above the simplistic political readings of the situation.

    My own immediate thoughts in reaction, though I need more time to think on it, is that what happened is related to my first comment on this thread, that Obama basically decided to go with health care is the economy stupids.

    Edit to add: Clinton approached it going into the presidency as if it was a key to the economy improving. He failed, but the economy got better via other ways. Obama for whatever reason,decides it is still a key that needs attention again, unfinished necessary business. Interesting that both Clintons came out to support it to the end, even in its final ugly sausage state no? There was a picture I think I posted of Hillary congratulating Obama on its passage with a hug. It's really not necessary for a loyal Sec. of State to congratulate in that manner on a domestic policy item, to say the least. I take it that both Clintons thought it a good thing. I am also thinking about how Bill more than once giving assistance with Obama economic efforts said the economic problems now are quite different than when he was president andthat health care reform was a needed part of the solution now.


     It is a Twitter link so you may have to be logged in there to use it.

     


    Excerpt from the above that I think might be of particular interest to you, jolly:

    Late one summer afternoon, I met my brother Rahm—then the White House chief of staff—in his West Wing office. We chatted, and then he asked in his usual staccato, "What else is going on, Zeke?"

    "I'm also working on the medical malpractice proposal I told you about," I began.

    He immediately cut me off: "Shut the f— up! We are not doing malpractice. Period. Every time the AMA comes in here, they don't talk about malpractice." Their first, second and third priority, he said, was the formula used by Medicare to determine doctors' pay. "We don't need to do malpractice for the doctors, and I am not alienating the president's base for nothing," he barked. "Stop it."

    Rahm's reaction told me everything that I needed to know about the politics of the issue


    "... I am not alienating the president's base for nothing," 

    In context ''president's base" equal trial lawyers.

     


    Tweaks are happening. That's what this news thread of mine has been all about. Which is also the reason for my dismay when people suggest there is some nefarious political agenda in reporting on them or talking about them. When people suggest that there should be more "news" about the all the happy campers that are pleased as punch with exactly how it's all working out. When those pleased as punch with how it's all working out don't even include the Obama administration.

    This here is a thread on the politics of it all. I myself don't want to have to pay attention to the politics of it all anymore, I think policy change decisions ("tweaks") should be policy driven now that it is law. Especially as it concerns something so gravely important like health care for people.

    But I see in the news stories that some of these "tweaks" and the way they are being executed might have something to do with 2014 elections, it disturbs me. When I see GOP react to problems and tweaks and manipulate them in a political manner, it also disturbs me. And I feel very negatively about all that

    I also feel strongly that there is no solution in reporters bloggers and blog commenters not talking about the "tweaks" but but to keep repeating how happy everyone is and how everything is working out just fine. To present that nothing needs tweaking and there are no holes in the law, that we must keep repeating that it is going to make everything better and that if we ignore the problems it will work out just fine is not a solution. Personally, I don't even think it's a solution to the politics of it. If I cared about how the politics of it works out, which I don't. I think everyone should care about tweaking the problems instead.


     I think policy change decisions ("tweaks") should be policy driven now that it is law.

     

    Yeah, sure.  But the House just hit the 50th iteration of Obamacare repeal (for which clowning, I assure you, the pugs will pay no price)...moral, we live in a sewer of politics, not a sea of policy.


    Everyone on the internet who wants to is certainly free to go down the path of joining in that by fighting "us vs. them" agitprop war games. Rather than talking about what kind of health care policy they actually want executed and what they don't. The way I see that, though, is a world where there are no citizens, only politicians. Where everyone is a political operative, and nobody is a citizen talking straight about what they'd like to see happen and what they'd not like to see happen.


    agitprop

     

    You want what, reasoned discourse?


    Hey, I'm not unrealistic. Other people like politics more than I do. So I'd settle for anyone willing to honestly talk and analyze the politics going on. Like this, for example: Obama just decided to extend the cancelled policies for 2 more years, apparently to help Dems running for re-election. The GOP is screaming back about how that affects risk corridors and the like. And it's all mostly smoke and mirrors because it's not a reality to extend in all but a tiny few cases, as people either were cancelled and switched before the ability to stay on was offered, or their state has decided not to allow it, or their insurance company tells them it's not possible and their choice then is to argue with an insurance company. Everything about that "tweak" is politics, having to do mostly with image of the law and not reality.


    A critical piece of being a citizen IS politics...entering into the political process.

    That's the process by which change is made.

    Otherwise, we sit around and talk about the policy we want without any path to get there and without regard to the folks who are blocking the way forward.

    Do you think that taking the profit motive out of medicine, for example, is simply going to happen without politics?


    but but to keep repeating how happy everyone is and how everything is working out just fine

    It's no doubt pointless repeating this, but what you describe is NOT what people are doing. This is a parody and not a very good one. As you say, the ACA is a work in progress. Why OMIT progress that's being made? It's not as if the positive news on this is static and the only changes are new, negative developments.


    So you consider a 1 to 2 Trillion Dollar subsidy of the insurance industry a working program, working for whom?  The fact that 4 million people have gotten insurance through this program is great but that leaves about 45 million people still uninsured and health insurance is not health care, we will have to wait and see what kind of health care these people get. After March 31st many of the 45 million uninsured will be exposed to the stick of the ACA and be liable for billions in fines for not submitting to this benevolent program. One thing is certain , the ACA is the best that the Democrat Party will ever offer and I think you are dreaming if you believe they will ever confront the Hospital Lobby.


    Democrat  Democratic Party    

    There, fixed it for you...


    This dingbat Peter?

    He brings to mind a fella I served with in the Navy. He thought he was the smartest sailorboy in the fleet. He was constantly yammering on about how things should be, or could have been done better. Had all the answers for everything. You know, griping about the rules. Well, one night during carrier ops out behind the Channel Islands he disappeared off the flight deck when we were setting planes for cat launches. One of the other  plane captains had told him not to walk behind the flight line. He shook his head and just kept walking just as one of the S-2s went to throttle up to taxi. POOF! Over the side he went. Come to find out later, the saddest thing about it was the smartest sailorboy in the Navy never passed the swim test in boot camp. Fish food...

    Hey Jolly... BTW...  Do you know how to swim? cheeky

    ~OGD~


    Not only can I swim, I'm fixin' to apply as a lifeguard...


    Just don't follow Hasselhoff into the bottle.

    If ever there was a guy who didn't live up to his screen image...


    I'm a stoner, not a juicer...

     


    I consider it my lifes work to get the working poor insured.  You are interested in something else. I don't know nor do I care what it is. 


    Your life's work of selling insurance to the working poor may have some merit but it has also been a failure. Even though you do not care about my interests I will state that I believe that providing Health Care for all is a more humane goal than just insuring poor people. The ACA will leave tens of millions of people without Health Care and millions more strapped with rising Health Care costs. So long as we allow the Health Insurance Industry to control access to Health Care and skim profit from that control, Health Care will be denied to many.


    You should take your message to a GOP website.

     


    I think it's okay to discuss how to best deal with universal health care without being shunned as a closet Republican. But then again, some folks think speaking out about poverty is akin to being a traitor to one's race and a member of the KKK.


    Thanks PP but I'm not sure rmrd was making that claim about me. I hope he was saying that I should try convincing the Republicans about Universal Health Care. He seems to assume that Liberal Dems and their leaders are advocates for UHC which is a myth and their passing the ACA is proof of that fallacy.  The problem for Liberals now is that they are panicking because the ACA is polling poorly and it will not help them in the next election so any criticism must be dismissed as politically damaging to party goals.


    You are correct that I was suggesting that you try to convince Republicans to get on board. I'm not sure that there is a myth about universal health care support among Liberals . I think most Liberals looked at the makeup of Congress and knew that single payer or other similar options were not a reality.

    Obviously, there are Conservative Democrats who would not support UHC. As more people are signed up and see the benefits of the Affordable Care Act, there should be in an uptick in support. 

    Over the long term, demographics are in the Democrats favor. The more Ryan talks about the work of Charles Murray and the more Republicans stall immigration reform, the more a Democrats are created.


    At least one poll is showing majority support for Obamacare despite disapproval of the way Obama handled the issue.


    The polls, meh...The MARKET, however...that is some good news.

     

    An “Obamacare” portfolioof stocks that benefit from the law developed by the online broker Motif Investing is up 40.9 percent over a year ago as of March 12, almost doubling the performance of the Standard & Poor’s 500 index, which returned 22.9 percent.

    A “Repeal Obamacare” portfolio underperformed the benchmark stock index, rising 16.1 percent during the period.

     

    Edit to add, of course, all that means is that they won't have a veto proof majority, which is cold comfort when it comes to getting judges confirmed by a narrowly Repugnant Senate (worst case scenario)


    Doggoneit. There was money to be made and I missed it.


    It's not too late to short Walker...(don't forget to tip your tipper....)


    On the other hand, Peter Not Verified, it could be the liberal Dems are panicking because the people who should benefit from equitable health care coverage are being compromised once again by those who have figured out new ways to obstruct (that means get in the way), and people we care about and have promised to help may not be getting the help they need.

    Actually, the ACA is not polling poorly.  If it fails, and I sincerely hope it doesn't--I sincerely hope it thrives and grows into Single Payer--it won't be because liberal Dems let the people down.  It'll be because the Right and their Billionaire buddies decided health care ala ACA isn't profitable enough and needs to die. 

    (I'm guessing you don't know many Liberals.)


    [Comment removed, TOS warning]


    Noted, TMac.  Watch it, please.


    Note to Tmac--ur gonna have to try harder than that, honey--we all love u.


    Note to Jolly:  Rex sez ur not so tuff.


    Busted!


    devil


    Because, they have no answers, Conservatives  rely on distraction. They have no answers on health care, so they obstruct and complain. How many votes have been taken to shutdown the health care act?

    Conservatives call women sluts, call black men lazy, call Latinos drug-dealers and then they wonder why the GOP has problems getting votes from people they have attacked. Realizing that they can't win the votes, they act to prevent people from voting

    The affordable Care Act is helping people. Conservatives want to deny health care to citizens where Republican Governors rule.,they would love to see people with health problems go without care rather then work towards any solution. 

    The GOP was dumb enough to invite health care officials from countries with government run health care to testify before the House. Watch the video in the link as a Canadian physician, Danielle Martin, takes down a Republican wingnut who was arguing that health care was substandard  in Canada. It's as funny as a Daily Show skit.


    Watch the video in the link 

     

    Hmmm...Bernie Sander's email list, huh?


    I'm sorry my comments have unhinged you so, Tmac and I regret assuming you were an insurance salesperson but you didn't explain how you have helped get insurance for the working poor. I could respond in kind to your jejune scatological assault but I try to avoid base emotional responses.


    HOO-HAH!

     

    20 (count'em, TWENTY!) style points for the very first appearance on this board of...

     

    "jejune"


    And only the third recorded use in dagblog history, from what I can tell.


    And they told those nice boys from Menlo Park their Googley thing wasn't gonna amount to much!  (What ever did become of Alta Vista, anyway?)


    I don't know, let me Google it


    [Comment removed, TOS warning]


    What's "TOS"?



    The Original Series


     But under the ACA, employers face no significant penalties for abandoning Taft-Hartley coverage for their workers, thus imperiling existing systems of insurance that are valued by unions and their members.

    Furthermore, Unite Here asserts, low-income employees can only get government subsidies for insurance if they abandon their existing plans to buy new ones on the public exchanges. And leaders fear the ensuing exodus may ultimately doom the availability of Taft-Hartley plans for all employees. Yet Obama, Unite Here officials say, has continued to balk.

    “In the three years since ACA was passed, we met with the White House 46 times” to press the case for specific changes to the law, Taylor says. “We met with Health and Human Services Department 12 times. And we met with the Department of Labor and the IRS.”

    But their hard work, he says, did not come to fruition. “After you meet 46 times and nothing happens, you get the point,” Taylor says, that the White House does not intend to aid labor unions in their efforts to protect the Taft-Hartley plans.

    “There is no point in talking to this administration anymore. The White House has been blatantly dishonest,” Taylor argues. “We took the president at his word when he said that if you like your current health plan, you could keep it.”

     

    Perhaps this sort of problem would have been avoided had Obama entered the health care reform fray fortified with the political capital he would have accrued from a truly successful eonomic stimulus...


    PROMISED Single-Payer (Rather dan a pitiful pool of PPCACA circling the Poppy Bush-Hog [with Lipstick] Company tiny turlitzer bowl).


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