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Mining the 538 data


Nov 3      St.Peter's polls          N 48; 49                                                                                               .............. Harris                         46;  48 

Nov 2        Harris                    N  45;  50                                                                                                     ...............Vox populi                    50  50

538's Sunday and Morning am data

Following is 538's Sunday data followed by this Morning's numbers if any. If there wasn't a report yesterday

I've posted the Monday data at the bottom.

                  Pollster             Number                                                                                                                                 ______              polled 



538's Saturday's new polls

        Pollster                         Number                                                                                                                                   ______                          polled


FL      St.Pete's polls               2733    Nelson      48   Scott     49

TX     Change Research         1211    O'Rourke   49   Cruz      49

MO   Remington Research    1429    McCaskill   47    Hawley   47

FL    Targoz                              558   Nelson        45    Scott      49

538 is no more

I've been posting 538's daily forecast for the House and Senate election.

It's aged out of From the Readers so I'll stop.

What I've learned is that nothing has changed much during that week of ten days: 538 calculates the dems

will carry the House and not the Senate. By about  they would have done when I started.

I'll post it again on Election eve.


Pittsburgh, Pipe bombs , Caravan & Nov 5

Take things in order.

o Call your best Jewish friend this morning  to say you're sorry.

o Re this week's victim of Trump's endless  incitement for violence from which he is immune. No need to raise it If  asked , what he tried hasn't worked , let's try something that might.

o And the Caravan . The Caravan! 

It's not going to get here till Dec. You know that If Trump had wanted, knew how to , he would have dealt with it already. He didn't

Trump's not behind the pipe bombs

Say after me . And repeat it if asked. Or not.

"Trump had nothing to do with the pipe bombs

Two reasons: It's true and it's good politics. 

Let's skip to the second. The attack will  be of some benefit of our  net margin. At least to the extent that

some republicans won't vote against us. Maybe go fishing.Good.

If we get some benefit without asking that's good  old American fair minded action by our good old Republican friends.

I'm too tired to continue so I'll post this.And really strongly remind you to say tomorrow

538 daily forecasts Friday am


Chance of winning              

Fair treatment for Republican

women who are raped, Also.

Imagine , something  that united us all. Because we all want to deal with rape.And the current system doesn't. Because in the vast majority of cases  punishing  a perpetrator needs  "corroboration". To avoid the "he said, she said" dead end.

And in that vast majority  needing  corroboration,  means "yawn"..Doesn't happen.

Tell me about the rabbits again


Let's see

The senate is supposed to advise and consent

They're supposed to investigate instead of calling on the FBI

Dr. Ford was a credible witness

And  said a juvenile drunken Kavanaugh attempted to rape her

BTW he likes a beer

But the  democrats asked the nominee whether he tried to rape Dr. Ford  

That was outrageous of them  

And must have been caused by the Clintons

Now about those rabbits........


(I added a sentence-Flav)


I love ya honey

but cut the cards.

We're wrong to scorn all our  opponents .On any issue.

  Some maybe.Not all .

There are  right -to- lifers (I'm not) who  support:single payer,.,great mixed public,  schools,  and  labor's right to organize. And joined the rest of the country in believing Dr. Blasey Ford .

Then celebrated yesterday for Brett. .

There are defenders of the police (I'm not. ) who brilliantly advocate for the handicapped.

And all the above might vote right in November . Or not.



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